Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Polypurine-polypyrimidine sequences adopt unwound structure in pBR322 form V DNA as probed by single-hit analysis of HpaII sites.

Structure at the polypurine-polypyrimidine sequences flanking the HpaII sites (CCGG) in pBR322 form V DNA was probed employing single-hit analysis using HpaII restriction endonuclease. Reduced cleavage efficiency of HpaII sites flanked by polypurine-polypyrimidine sequences suggested that under high torsional stress these sequences adopt unwound structures rendering these sites insensitive to restriction enzyme cleavage. In addition to polypurine-polypyrimidine sequences. HpaII sites flanked by alternating purine-pyrimidine sequence, a potential motif of left handed Z-DNA, were also found to be resistant to HpaII cleavage. Results obtained from various studies implicating structure sensitivity of restriction endonucleases and methylases were compiled and a direct correlation was observed between the occurrence of altered sites in a domain and its G/C content in pBR322 form V DNA.

Phase Relations in the System La-Rh-O and Thermodynamic Properties of LaRhO3

Phase relations in the system La-Rh-O at 1223 Ii have been determined by examination of equilibrated samples by optical and scanning electron microscopy, powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), and energy-dispersive analysis of X-rays (EDAX). Only one ternary oxide, LaRhO3, with distorted orthorhombic perovskite structure (Pbnm, a = 0.5525, b = 0.5680, and c = 0.7901 nm) was identified. The alloys and intermetallics along the La-Rh binary are in equilibrium with La2O3. The thermodynamic properties of LaRhO3 were determined in the temperature range 890 to 1310 K, using a solid-state cell incorporating yttria-stabilized zirconia as the electrolyte. A new four-compartment design of the emf cell was used to enhance the accuracy of measurement. For the reaction 1/2La(2)O(3) + 1/2Rh(2)O(3) --> LaRhO3, Delta G degrees = - 70 780 + 4.89T (+/- 90) J.mol(-1) The compound decomposes on heating to a mixture of La2O3, Ph and O-2. The calculated decomposition temperatures are 1843 (+/- 5) K in pure O-2 and 1728 (+/- 5) K in air at a pressure of 1.01 x 10(5) Pa. The phase diagrams for the system La-Rh-O at different partial pressures of oxygen are calculated from the thermodynamic information.

Spectroscopic Observation of Oscillations in the Corona During the Total Solar Eclipse of 22 July 2009

We performed high resolution spectroscopy of the solar corona during the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 in two emission lines: the green line at 5303 due to Fe xiv and the red line at 6374 due to Fe x, simultaneously from Anji (latitude 30A degrees 28.1' N; longitude 119A degrees 35.4' E; elevation 890 m), China. A two-mirror coelostat with 100 cm focal length lens produced a 9.2 mm image of the Sun. The spectrograph using 140 cm focal length lens in Littrow mode and a grating with 600 lines per millimeter blazed at 2 mu m provided a dispersion of 30 m and 43 m per pixel in the fourth order around the green line and third order around the red line, respectively. Two Peltier cooled 1k x 1k CCD cameras, with a pixel size of 13 mu m square and 14-bit readout at 10 MHz operated in frame transfer mode, were used to obtain the time sequence spectra in two emission lines simultaneously. The duration of totality was 341 s, but we could get spectra for 270 s after a trial exposure at an interval of 5 s. We report here on the detection of intensity, velocity, and line width oscillations with periodicity in the range of 25 -50 s. These oscillations can be interpreted in terms of the presence of fast magnetoacoustic waves or torsional Alfv,n waves. The intensity ratios of green to red emission lines indicate the temperature of the corona to be 1.65 MK in the equatorial region and 1.40 MK in the polar region, relatively higher than the expected temperature during the low activity period. The width variation of the emission lines in different coronal structures suggests different physical conditions in different structures.

Synthesis, X-ray structure and properties of (eta(6)-p-cymene)ruthenium(II) Schiff-base complexes of vinylpyridine and vinylimidazole ligands

Complexes of the formulation [(eta(6)-p-cymene)Ru(O-2-C6H4-CH=NC6H4-4-CH3)(L)](ClO4), where L is gamma-picoline, 4-vinylpyridine, 1-methylimidazole and 1-vinylimidazole have been prepared and characterised. The molecular structure of the vinylpyridine adduct has been determined by X-ray crystallography. The crystal belongs to the monoclinic space group P2(1) with the following cell dimensions for the C31H33CIN2O5Ru(M = 650.11): a = 10.890(2)Angstrom, b = 22.295(9)Angstrom, c = 12.930(2)Angstrom, beta = 109.30(2)degrees(3), V = 2964(l)Angstrom 3, Z = 4; D-c = 1.457g cm(-3), lambda(Mo-K alpha) = 0.7107 Angstrom; mu(Mo-K alpha)= 6.61 cm(-1); T = 293 K; R = 0.0359 (wR(2) = 0.0981) for 4819 reflections with I > 2 sigma(I). The structure shows the non-bonding nature of the double bond of the 4-vinylpyridine ligand in the complex in which the metal is bonded to the eta(6)-p-cymene, the N, O-bidentate chelating schiff-base and the unidentate N-donor pyridine ligands.

Thermodynamic studies on NdFeO3(s)

The enthalpy increments and the standard molar Gibbs energy of formation of NdFeO3(s) have been measured using a hightemperature Calvet microcalorimeter and a solid oxide galvanic cell, respectively. A lambda-type transition, related to magnetic order-disorder transformation (antiferromagnetic to paramagnetic), is apparent from the heat capacity data at similar to 687 K. Enthalpy increments, except in the vicinity of transition, can be represented by a polynomial expression: {Hdegrees(m)(T)-Hdegrees(m) (298.15 K)} /J(.)mol(-1) (+/- 0.7%)=-53625.6+146.0(T/K) +1.150 X 10(-4)(T/K)(2) +3.007 x 10(6)(T/K)(-1); (298.15 less than or equal to T/K less than or equal to 1000). The heat capacity, the first differential of {Hdegrees(m)(T)-Hdegrees(m)(298.15 K)}with respect to temperature, is given by Cdegrees(pm)/J(.)K(-1.)mol(-1)=146.0+ 2.30x10(-4) (T/K) - 3.007 X 10(6)(T/K)(-2). The reversible emf's of the cell, (-) Pt/{NdFeO3(s) +Nd2O3(s)+Fe(s)}//YDT/CSZ// Fe(s)+'FeO'(s)}/Pt(+), were measured in the temperature range from 1004 to 1208 K. It can be represented within experimental error by a linear equation: E/V=(0.1418 +/- 0.0003)-(3.890 +/- 0.023) x 10(-5)(T/K). The Gibbs energy of formation of solid NdFeO, calculated by the least-squares regression analysis of the data obtained in the present study, and data for Fe0.95O and Nd2O3 from the literature, is given by Delta(f)Gdegrees(m)(NdFeO3 s)/kJ (.) mol(-1)( +/- 2.0)=1345.9+0.2542(T/K); (1000 less than or equal to T/K less than or equal to 1650). The error in Delta(f)Gdegrees(m)(NdFeO3, s, T) includes the standard deviation in emf and the uncertainty in the data taken from the literature. Values of Delta(f)Hdegrees(m)(NdFeO3, s, 298.15 K) and Sdegrees(m) (NdFeO3 s, 298.15 K) calculated by the second law method are - 1362.5 (+/-6) kJ (.) mol(-1) and 123.9 (+/-2.5) J (.) K-1 (.) mol(-1), respectively. Based on the thermodynamic information, an oxygen potential diagram for the system Nd-Fe-O was developed at 1350 K. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Stress induced phase transition in a monomolecular perfluroalkylsilane film self assembled on aluminium surface

We control the stiffnesses of two dual double cantelevers placed in series to control penetration into a perflurooctyltrichlorosilane monolayer self assembled on aluminium and silicon substrates. The top cantilever which carries the probe is displaced with respect to the bottom cantilever which carries the substrate, the difference in displacement recorded using capacitors gives penetration. We further modulate the input displacement sinusoidally to deconvolute the viscoelastic properties of the monolayer. When the intervention is limited to the terminal end of the molecule there is a strong viscous response in consonance with the ability of the molecule to dissipate energy by the generation of gauche defects freely. When the intervention reaches the backbone, at a contact mean pressure of 0.2GPa the damping disappears abruptly and the molecule registers a steep rise in elastic modulus and relaxation time constant, with increasing contact pressure. We offer a physical explanation of the process and describe this change as due to a phase transition from a liquid like to a solid like state.

Conformational studies of the phosphazenyl side chain in cyclophosphazenes. Part 3. Crystal and molecular structure of N3P3Cl4(NEt2)(NPPh3)

The crystal structure of N3P3Cl4(NEt2)(NPPh3) has been determined. The crystals are orthorhombic, space group Pbca, with a= 8.208(1), b= 21.890(1), c= 31.722(2)Å, Z= 8, and m.p. = 146.5 °C. The structure was solved by direct methods and refined to a final R value of 0.045 for 2 025 independent reflections. The analysis reveals significant variations in the ring P–N bond lengths. The two nitrogenous substituents, NPPh3 and NEt2, reside on the same phosphorus atom. The latter, NEt2, has an almost exact type II conformation (the plane NC2 almost perpendicular to the local NPN plane)(the first observed for a dialkylamino-group in cyclophosphazenes), the former, NPPh3, deviates from type II towards type III (in type III the plane Pring–N–Pexo makes an angle of ca. 45° with the local N–P–N ring plane). The present structure is compared with others of triphenylphosphazenyl-cyclophosphazenes and the conformation of the NPPh3 substituent and its electron supply in the ground and perturbed states are discussed.

Optimization of thermoacoustic primemover using response surface methodology

Thermoacoustic engines are energy conversion devices that convert thermal energy from a high-temperature heat source into useful work in the form of acoustic power while diverting waste heat into a cold sink; it can be used as a drive for cryocoolers and refrigerators. Though the devices are simple to fabricate, it is very challenging to design an optimized thermoacoustic primemover with better performance. The study presented here aims to optimize the thermoacoustic primemover using response surface methodology. The influence of stack position and its length, resonator length, plate thickness, and plate spacing on pressure amplitude and frequency in a thermoacoustic primemover is investigated in this study. For the desired frequency of 207 Hz, the optimized value of the above parameters suggested by the response surface methodology has been conducted experimentally, and simulations are also performed using DeltaEC. The experimental and simulation results showed similar output performance.

A broad pore size distribution mesoporous SnO2 as anode for lithium-ion batteries

We demonstrate here that mesoporous tin dioxide (abbreviated M-SnO2) with a broad pore size distribution can be a prospective anode in lithium-ion batteries. M-SnO2 with pore size ranging between 2 and 7.5 nm was synthesized using a hydrothermal procedure involving two different surfactants of slightly different sizes, and characterized. The irreversible capacity loss that occurs during the first discharge and charge cycle is 890 mAh g(-1), which is smaller than the 1,010-mAh g(-1) loss recorded for mesoporous SnO2 (abbreviated S-SnO2) synthesized using a single surfactant. After 50 cycles, the discharge capacity of M-SnO2 (504 mAh g(-1)) is higher than that of S-SnO2 (401 mAh g(-1)) and solid nanoparticles of SnO2 (abbreviated nano-SnO2 < 4 mAh g(-1)) and nano-SnO2. Transmission electron microscopy revealed higher disorder in the pore arrangement in M-SnO2. This, in turn imparts lower stiffness to M-SnO2 (elastic modulus, E (R) a parts per thousand aEuro parts per thousand 14.5 GPa) vis-a-vis S-SnO2 (E (R) a parts per thousand aEuro parts per thousand 20.5 GPa), as obtained using the nanoindentation technique. Thus, the superior battery performance of M-SnO2 is attributed to its intrinsic material mechanical property. The fluidity of the internal microstructure of M-SnO2 resulted in a lower degree of aggregation of Sn particles compared to S-SnO2 and nano-SnO2 structural stabilization and long-term cyclability.

Revisiting SW J2000.6+3210: a persistent Be X-ray pulsar?

We present a detailed timing and spectral analysis of the Be X-ray binary SW J2000.6+3210 discovered by the Burst Alert Telescope Galactic plane survey. Two Suzaku observations of the source made at six months interval, reveal pulsations at similar to 890 s for both observations with a much weaker pulse fraction in the second one. Pulsations are clearly seen in the energy band of 0.3-10 keV of X-ray Imaging Spectrometer for both observations and at high energies up to 40 keV for the second observation. The broad-band X-ray spectrum is consistent with a power-law and high-energy cut-off model along with a hot blackbody component. No change in spectral parameters is detected between the observations. We have also analysed several short observations of the source with Swift/XRT and detected only a few per cent variation in flux around a mean value of 3.5 x 10(-11) erg cm(-2) s(-1). The results indicate that SW J2000.6+3210 is a member of persistent Be X-ray binaries which have the same broad characteristics as this source.

3D Anisotropic Elastoplastic-Damage Model and its Application in Simulating the Behavior of Rock Materials

A 3D anisotropic elastoplastic-damage model was presented based on continuum damage mechanics theory. In this model, the tensor decomposition technique is employed. Combined with the plastic yield rule and damage evolution, the stress tensor in incremental format is obtained. The derivate eigenmodes in the proposed model are assumed to be related with the uniaxial behavior of the rock material. Each eigenmode has a corresponding damage variable due to the fact that damage is a function of the magnitude of the eigenstrain. Within an eigenmodes, different damage evolution can be used for tensile and compressive loadings. This model was also developed into finite element code in explicit format, and the code was integrated into the well-known computational environment ABAQUS using the ABAQUS/Explicit Solver. Numerical simulation of an uniaxial compressive test for a rock sample is used to examine the performance of the proposed model, and the progressive failure process of the rock sample is unveiled.