886 resultados para 710701 Electricity, gas and water services and utilities


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Mode of access: Internet.

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This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

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Produced water constitutes the largest volume of waste from offshore oil and gas operations and is composed of a wide range of organic and inorganic compounds. Although treatment processes have to meet strict oil in water regulations, the definition of “oil” is a function of the analysis process and may include aliphatic hydrocarbons which have limited environmental impact due to degradability whilst ignoring problematic dissolved petroleum species. This thesis presents the partitioning behavior of oil in produced water as a function of temperature and salinity to identify compounds of environmental concern. Phenol, p-cresol, and 4-tert-butylphenol were studied because of their xenoestrogenic power; other compounds studied are polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon PAHs which include naphthalene, fluorene, phenanthrene, and pyrene. Partitioning experiments were carried out in an Innova incubator for 48 hours, temperature was varied from 4゚C to 70゚C, and two salinity levels of 46.8‰ and 66.8‰ were studied. Results obtained showed that the dispersed oil concentration in the water reduces with settling time and equilibrium was attained at 48 h settling time. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) partitions based on dispersed oil concentration whereas phenols are not significantly affected by dispersed oil concentration. Higher temperature favors partitioning of PAHs into the water phase. Salinity has negligible effect on partitioning pattern of phenols and PAHs studied. Simulation results obtained from the Aspen HYSYS model shows that temperature and oil droplet distribution greatly influences the efficiency of produced water treatment system.

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Wetland ecosystems provide many valuable ecosystem services, including carbon (C) storage and improvement of water quality. Yet, restored and managed wetlands are not frequently evaluated for their capacity to function in order to deliver on these values. Specific restoration or management practices designed to meet one set of criteria may yield unrecognized biogeochemical costs or co-benefits. The goal of this dissertation is to improve scientific understanding of how wetland restoration practices and waterfowl habitat management affect critical wetland biogeochemical processes related to greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient cycling. I met this goal through field and laboratory research experiments in which I tested for relationships between management factors and the biogeochemical responses of wetland soil, water, plants and trace gas emissions. Specifically, I quantified: (1) the effect of organic matter amendments on the carbon balance of a restored wetland; (2) the effectiveness of two static chamber designs in measuring methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands; (3) the impact of waterfowl herbivory on the oxygen-sensitive processes of methane emission and coupled nitrification-denitrification; and (4) nitrogen (N) exports caused by prescribed draw down of a waterfowl impoundment.

The potency of CH4 emissions from wetlands raises the concern that widespread restoration and/or creation of freshwater wetlands may present a radiative forcing hazard. Yet data on greenhouse gas emissions from restored wetlands are sparse and there has been little investigation into the greenhouse gas effects of amending wetland soils with organic matter, a recent practice used to improve function of mitigation wetlands in the Eastern United States. I measured trace gas emissions across an organic matter gradient at a restored wetland in the coastal plain of Virginia to test the hypothesis that added C substrate would increase the emission of CH4. I found soils heavily loaded with organic matter emitted significantly more carbon dioxide than those that have received little or no organic matter. CH4 emissions from the wetland were low compared to reference wetlands and contrary to my hypothesis, showed no relationship with the loading rate of added organic matter or total soil C. The addition of moderate amounts of organic matter (< 11.2 kg m-2) to the wetland did not greatly increase greenhouse gas emissions, while the addition of high amounts produced additional carbon dioxide, but not CH4.

I found that the static chambers I used for sampling CH4 in wetlands were highly sensitive to soil disturbance. Temporary compression around chambers during sampling inflated the initial chamber CH4 headspace concentration and/or lead to generation of nonlinear, unreliable flux estimates that had to be discarded. I tested an often-used rubber-gasket sealed static chamber against a water-filled-gutter seal chamber I designed that could be set up and sampled from a distance of 2 m with a remote rod sampling system to reduce soil disturbance. Compared to the conventional design, the remotely-sampled static chambers reduced the chance of detecting inflated initial CH4 concentrations from 66 to 6%, and nearly doubled the proportion of robust linear regressions from 45 to 86%. The new system I developed allows for more accurate and reliable CH4 sampling without costly boardwalk construction.

I explored the relationship between CH4 emissions and aquatic herbivores, which are recognized for imposing top-down control on the structure of wetland ecosystems. The biogeochemical consequences of herbivore-driven disruption of plant growth, and in turn, mediated oxygen transport into wetland sediments, were not previously known. Two growing seasons of herbivore exclusion experiments in a major waterfowl overwintering wetland in the Southeastern U.S. demonstrate that waterfowl herbivory had a strong impact on the oxygen-sensitive processes of CH4 emission and nitrification. Denudation by herbivorous birds increased cumulative CH4 flux by 233% (a mean of 63 g CH4 m-2 y-1) and inhibited coupled nitrification-denitrification, as indicated by nitrate availability and emissions of nitrous oxide. The recognition that large populations of aquatic herbivores may influence the capacity for wetlands to emit greenhouse gases and cycle nitrogen is particularly salient in the context of climate change and nutrient pollution mitigation goals. For example, our results suggest that annual emissions of 23 Gg of CH4 y-1 from ~55,000 ha of publicly owned waterfowl impoundments in the Southeastern U.S. could be tripled by overgrazing.

Hydrologically controlled moist-soil impoundment wetlands provide critical habitat for high densities of migratory bird populations, thus their potential to export nitrogen (N) to downstream waters may contribute to the eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems. To investigate the relative importance of N export from these built and managed habitats, I conducted a field study at an impoundment wetland that drains into hypereutrophic Lake Mattamuskeet. I found that prescribed hydrologic drawdowns of the impoundment exported roughly the same amount of N (14 to 22 kg ha-1) as adjacent fertilized agricultural fields (16 to 31 kg ha-1), and contributed approximately one-fifth of total N load (~45 Mg N y-1) to Lake Mattamuskeet. Ironically, the prescribed drawdown regime, designed to maximize waterfowl production in impoundments, may be exacerbating the degradation of habitat quality in the downstream lake. Few studies of wetland N dynamics have targeted impoundments managed to provide wildlife habitat, but a similar phenomenon may occur in some of the 36,000 ha of similarly-managed moist-soil impoundments on National Wildlife Refuges in the southeastern U.S. I suggest early drawdown as a potential method to mitigate impoundment N pollution and estimate it could reduce N export from our study impoundment by more than 70%.

In this dissertation research I found direct relationships between wetland restoration and impoundment management practices, and biogeochemical responses of greenhouse gas emission and nutrient cycling. Elevated soil C at a restored wetland increased CO2 losses even ten years after the organic matter was originally added and intensive herbivory impact on emergent aquatic vegetation resulted in a ~230% increase in CH4 emissions and impaired N cycling and removal. These findings have important implications for the basic understanding of the biogeochemical functioning of wetlands and practical importance for wetland restoration and impoundment management in the face of pressure to mitigate the environmental challenges of global warming and aquatic eutrophication.

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Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

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The design of a sustainable electricity generation and transmission system is based on the established science of anthropogenic climate change and the realization that depending on imported fossil-fuels is becoming a measure of energy insecurity of supply. A model is proposed which integrates generation fuel mix composition, assignment of plants and optimized power flow, using Portugal as a case study. The result of this co-optimized approach is an overall set of generator types/fuels which increases the diversity of Portuguese electricity supply, lowers its dependency on imported fuels by 14.62% and moves the country towards meeting its regional and international obligations of 31% energy from renewables by 2020 and a 27% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2012, respectively. The quantity and composition of power generation at each bus is specified, with particular focus on quantifying the amount of distributed generation. Based on other works, the resultant, overall distributed capacity penetration of 19.02% of total installed generation is expected to yield positive network benefits. Thus, the model demonstrates that national energy policy and technical deployment can be linked through sustainability and, moreover, that the respective goals may be mutually achieved via holistic, integrated design. ©2009 IEEE.

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Os incêndios florestais são uma importante fonte de emissão de compostos gasosos e de aerossóis. Em Portugal, onde a maioria dos incêndios ocorre no norte e centro do país, os incêndios destroem todos os anos milhares de hectares, com importantes perdas em termos económicos, de vidas humanas e qualidade ambiental. As emissões podem alterar consideravelmente a química da atmosfera, degradar a qualidade do ar e alterar o clima. Contudo, a informação sobre as caraterísticas das emissões dos incêndios florestais nos países do Mediterrâneo é limitada. Tanto a nível nacional como internacional, existe um interesse crescente na elaboração de inventários de emissões e de regulamentos sobre as emissões de carbono para a atmosfera. Do ponto de vista atmosférico da monitorização atmosférica, os incêndios são considerados um desafio, dada a sua variabilidade temporal e espacial, sendo de esperar um aumento da sua frequência, dimensão e severidade, e também porque as estimativas de emissões dependem das caraterísticas dos biocombustíveis e da fase de combustão. O objetivo deste estudo foi quantificar e caraterizar as emissões de gases e aerossóis de alguns dos mais representativos incêndios florestais que ocorreram no centro de Portugal nos verões de 2009 e de 2010. Efetuou-se a colheita de amostras de gases e de duas frações de partículas (PM2.5 e PM2.5-10) nas plumas de fumo em sacos Tedlar e em filtros de quartzo acoplados a um amostrador de elevado volume, respetivamente. Os hidrocarbonetos totais (THC) e óxidos de carbono (CO e CO2) nas amostras gasosas foram analisados em instrumentos automáticos de ionização de chama e detetores não dispersivos de infravermelhos, respetivamente. Para algumas amostras, foram também quantificados alguns compostos de carbonilo após reamostragem do gás dos sacos Tedlar em cartuchos de sílica gel revestidos com 2,4-dinitrofenilhidrazina (DNPH), seguida de análise por cromatografia líquida de alta resolução. Nas partículas, analisou-se o carbono orgânico e elementar (técnica termo-óptica), iões solúveis em água (cromatografia iónica) e elementos (espectrometria de massa com plasma acoplado por indução ou análise instrumental por ativação com neutrões). A especiação orgânica foi obtida por cromatografia gasosa acoplada a espectrometria de massa após extração com recurso a vários solventes e separação dos extratos orgânicos em diversas classes de diferentes polaridades através do fracionamento com sílica gel. Os fatores de emissão do CO e do CO2 situaram-se nas gamas 52-482 e 822-1690 g kg-1 (base seca), mostrando, respetivamente, correlação negativa e positiva com a eficiência de combustão. Os fatores de emissão dos THC apresentaram valores mais elevados durante a fase de combustão latente sem chama, oscilando entre 0.33 e 334 g kg-1 (base seca). O composto orgânico volátil oxigenado mais abundante foi o acetaldeído com fatores de emissão que variaram desde 1.0 até 3.2 g kg-1 (base seca), seguido pelo formaldeído e o propionaldeído. Observou-se que as emissões destes compostos são promovidas durante a fase de combustão latente sem chama. Os fatores de emissão de PM2.5 e PM10 registaram valores entre 0.50-68 e 0.86-72 g kg-1 (base seca), respetivamente. A emissão de partículas finas e grosseiras é também promovida em condições de combustão lenta. As PM2.5 representaram cerca de 90% da massa de partículas PM10. A fração carbonosa das partículas amostradas em qualquer dos incêndios foi claramente dominada pelo carbono orgânico. Foi obtida uma ampla gama de rácios entre o carbono orgânico e o carbono elementar, dependendo das condições de combustão. Contudo, todos os rácios refletiram uma maior proporção de carbono orgânico em relação ao carbono elementar, típica das emissões de queima de biomassa. Os iões solúveis em água obtidos nas partículas da pluma de fumo contribuíram com valores até 3.9% da massa de partículas PM2.5 e 2.8% da massa de partículas de PM2.5-10. O potássio contribuiu com valores até 15 g mg-1 PM2.5 e 22 g mg-1 PM2.5-10, embora em massa absoluta estivesse maioritariamente presente nas partículas finas. Os rácios entre potássio e carbono elementar e entre potássio e carbono orgânico obtidos nas partículas da pluma de fumo enquadram-se na gama de valores relatados na literatura para emissões de queima de biomassa. Os elementos detetados nas amostras representaram, em média, valores até 1.2% e 12% da massa de PM2.5 e PM2.5-10, respetivamente. Partículas resultantes de uma combustão mais completa (valores elevados de CO2 e baixos de CO) foram caraterizadas por um elevado teor de constituintes inorgânicos e um menor conteúdo de matéria orgânica. Observou-se que a matéria orgânica particulada é composta principalmente por componentes fenólicos e produtos derivados, séries de compostos homólogos (alcanos, alcenos, ácidos alcanóicos e alcanóis), açúcares, biomarcadores esteróides e terpenóides, e hidrocarbonetos aromáticos policíclicos. O reteno, um biomarcador das emissões da queima de coníferas, foi o hidrocarboneto aromático dominante nas amostras das plumas de fumo amostradas durante a campanha que decorreu em 2009, devido ao predomínio de amostras colhidas em incêndios em florestas de pinheiros. O principal açúcar anidro, e sempre um dos compostos mais abundantes, foi o levoglucosano. O rácio levoglucosano/OC obtido nas partículas das plumas de fumo, em média, registaram valores desde 5.8 a 23 mg g-1 OC. Os rácios levoglucosano/manosano e levoglucosano/(manosano+galactosano) revelaram o predomínio de amostras provenientes da queima de coníferas. Tendo em conta que a estimativa das emissões dos incêndios florestais requer um conhecimento de fatores de emissão apropriados para cada biocombustível, a base de dados abrangente obtida neste estudo é potencialmente útil para atualizar os inventários de emissões. Tem vindo a ser observado que a fase de combustão latente sem chama, a qual pode ocorrer simultaneamente com a fase de chama e durar várias horas ou dias, pode contribuir para uma quantidade considerável de poluentes atmosféricos, pelo que os fatores de emissão correspondentes devem ser considerados no cálculo das emissões globais de incêndios florestais. Devido à falta de informação detalhada sobre perfis químicos de emissão, a base de dados obtida neste estudo pode também ser útil para a aplicação de modelos no recetor no sul da Europa.

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This paper explores the possible evolution of UK electricity demand as we move along three potential transition pathways to a low carbon economy in 2050.The shift away from fossil fuels through the electrification of demand is discussed, particularly through the uptake of heat pumps and electric vehicles in the domestic and passenger transport sectors. Developments in the way people and institutions may use energy along each of the pathways are also considered and provide a rationale for the quantification of future annual electricity demands in various broad sectors. The paper then presents detailed modelling of hourly balancing of these demands in the context of potential low carbon generation mixes associated with the three pathways. In all cases, hourly balancing is shown to be a significant challenge. To minimise the need for conventional generation to operate with very low capacity factors, a variety of demand side participation measures are modelled and shown to provide significant benefits. Lastly, projections of greenhouse gas emissions from the UK and the imports of fossil fuels to the UK for each of the three pathways are presented.