Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Psychological health and the risk of diabetes mellitus in Australian women: A 21-year prospective study

Background Symptoms of depression can be recurrent or limited to one episode. This study discusses the prospective association between psychological health, measured as change in depression symptoms, and the risk of diabetes mellitus in Australian women. Methods Data obtained from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy. Depression was measured using the Delusions-Symptoms: States Inventory. To examine possible transitions over time, depression was grouped into four categories and assessed at different phases over the 21-year period. Multiple logistic regression models and sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of our analytical strategy were performed. Results Three hundred and one women reported diabetes 21 years after the index pregnancy. Almost one-third of the women who reported depression symptoms continued to report these at a subsequent follow-up (FU) phase. About 1 in 20 women who had not reported depression symptoms at the 5-year FU did so at the subsequent 14-year FU. In prospective analyses, we did not find a significant association between diabetes and negative change (not depressed to depressed, at subsequent phase); however, for women with positive history of symptoms of depression and women with persistent symptoms, there was a 1.97-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14–3.40) to 2.23-fold (95% CI: 1.09–4.57) greater risk of diabetes. Conclusions Our study suggests that an increased risk of diabetes is significantly associated with persistent depression symptoms. It highlights the importance of recognizing depression symptoms in terms of women's psychological wellbeing and thus provides a basis for targeting those most at risk.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Mimicry of 21. 5 KDa myelin basic protein peptide by a Maedi Visna virus polymerase peptide does not contribute to the pathogenesis of encephalitis in sheep

Epitope mimicry is the theory that an infectious agent such as a virus causes pathological effects via mimicry of host proteins and thus elicits a cross-reactive immune response to host tissues. Weise and Carnegie (1988) found a region of sequence similarity between the pol gene of the Maedi Visna virus (MVV), which induces demyelinating encephalitis in sheep, and myelin basic protein (MBP), which is known to induce experimental allergic encephalitis (EAE) in laboratory animals. In this study, cross-reactions between sera raised in sheep against synthetic peptides of MVV (TGKIPWILLPGR) and 21.5 kDa MBP (SGKVPWLKRPGR) were demonstrated using enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (ELISA) and thin layer chromatography (TLC) immunoprobing. The antibody responses of MVV-infected sheep were investigated using ELISA against the peptides, and MBP protein, immunoprobing of the peptides on TPC plates and Western blotting against MBP. Slight significant reactions to the 21.5 kDa MBP peptide (P < 0.001) and to a lesser extent sheep MBP (P < 0.004) were detected in ELISA. The MBP peptide evoked stronger responses from more sera than the MVV peptide on immunoprobed TLC plates. On the Western blots, eight of the 23 sheep with Visna had serum reactivity to MBP. This slight reaction to MBP in MVV-infected sheep is of interest because of the immune responses to MBP evident in multiple sclerosis and EAE, but its relevance in Visna is limited since no correlation with disease severity was observed. The cell-mediated immune responses of MVV-infected sheep against similar peptides was assessed. The peptides did not stimulate proliferation of peripheral blood lymphocytes of MVV-infected sheep. Since the MVV peptide was not recognised by antibodies or T lymphocytes from MVV-infected and encephalic sheep, it was concluded that epitope mimicry of this 21.5 kDa MBP peptide by the similar MVV pol peptide was not contributing to the immunopathogenesis of Visna. The slight antibody response to MBP and the MBP peptide can be attributed to by-stander effects of the immunopathology of MVV-induced encephalitis.

Single 2×1 domain orientation on Si(001) surfaces using aperiodic Bi line arrays

Studies of Bi heteroepitaxy on Si(001) have shown that lines grow to lengths of up to 500nm if the substrate is heated to above the Bi desorption temperature (500°C) during or after Bi deposition. Unlike many other nanoline systems, the lines formed by this nonequilibrium growth process have no detectable width dispersion. Although much attention has been given to the atomic geometery of the line, in this paper, we focus on how the lines can be used to create a majority 2×1 domain orientation. It is demonstrated that the Bi lines can be used to produce a single-domain orientation on Si(001) if the lines are grown on Si(001) surfaces with a regular distribution of single height steps. This is a compelling example of how a nanoscale motif can be used to modify mesoscopic surface structure on Si(001).

Optimising indoor phosphine fumigation of paddy rice bag-stacks under sheeting for control of resistant insects

Three indoor, sheeted bag-stack fumigations of paddy rice using aluminium phosphide were undertaken in Guangdong Province, southern China. We measured the effect of two types of sheeting (polyvinylchloride [PVC] or polyethylene [PE]) and two types of floor sealing (clips or fixing into a slot with a rubber pipe) on phosphine concentration and retention. The aim was to test the feasibility of retaining fumigant at a sufficient concentration for long enough to control known resistant insect pests. Each stack was pressure tested and phosphine concentrations measured daily during the fumigation. Cages of test insects in culture medium, including resistant and susceptible strains, were placed inside each stack and could be observed through the clear sheeting. Highest concentrations for the longest period were obtained in a PVC-covered stack that included a ground sheet and wall sheets sealed to the floor with rubber pipes. A similar PVC-covered stack sealed to the floor with clips instead of pipe did not retain gas as efficiently and required re-dosing. A PE-covered stack, with no ground sheet but also with wall sheets sealed to the floor with pipe, produced an acceptable fumigation. Susceptible Rhyzopertha dominica were controlled in 2 days and the most resistant strain in 15 days. Resistant Cryptolestes ferrugineus survived until day 21. The paddy was still free of insect infestation 7 months later when the bag-stack was opened to mill the rice. Pressure half-lives correlated with gas concentration and retention. Sorption appeared to be a major limiting factor, reducing potential fumigant dosage by about 50%. The trials demonstrated the feasibility of sealing bag-stacks to a standard high enough to control all known resistant strains.

ac susceptibility and electrical resistivity in Fe80-xNixCr20 (21 \leq x \leq 30) alloys

ac susceptibility and electrical resistivity studies on polycrystalline Fe80-xNixCr20 (21 \leq x \leq 30) alloys, with x=21, 23, 26, and 30, between 4.2 and 80 K, are reported. A previous dc magnetization study indicated the presence of ferro-spin-glass mixed-phase behavior in x=23 and 26 alloys while the alloys with x=21 and 30 were found to be spin-glass and ferromagnetic, respectively. The present ac susceptibility results support the above picture. In the electrical resistivity study, a low-temperature minimum in the resistivity-temperature curve is observed in all the alloys except the ferromagnetic one.

Isolation and characterization of 21 polymorphic microsatellite loci in the iconic Australian lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri, using the Ion Torrent next-generation sequencing platform

We isolated and characterized 21 microsatellite loci in the vulnerable and iconic Australian lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri. Loci were screened across eight individuals from the Burnett River and 40 individuals from the Pine River. Genetic diversity was low with between one and six alleles per locus within populations and a maximum expected heterozygosity of 0.774. These loci will now be available to assess effective population sizes and genetic structure in N. forsteri across its natural range in South East Queensland, Australia.

Vykopirovka s plana Fraǐdorfskogo raǐona, Kafiiskoǐ dachi razverstanii︠a︡, uchastkov Komzeta za Nº Nº 71z, 71v, 74, 12c, 75, 21 i Kaǐmachinskiǐ fond

Digital image

Letter to Aaron Levy from Trustees of K.K.S.I., February 21, 1820

Digital image

Plan zemelʻnogo uchastka Nº 21

Digital image

A psychosocial analysis of parent's decisions for limiting their young child's screen time: An examination of attitudes, social norms and roles, and control perceptions

- Objectives Preschool-aged children spend substantial amounts of time engaged in screen-based activities. As parents have considerable control over their child's health behaviours during the younger years, it is important to understand those influences that guide parents' decisions about their child's screen time behaviours. - Design A prospective design with two waves of data collection, 1 week apart, was adopted. - Methods Parents (n = 207) completed a Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB)-based questionnaire, with the addition of parental role construction (i.e., parents' expectations and beliefs of responsibility for their child's behaviour) and past behaviour. A number of underlying beliefs identified in a prior pilot study were also assessed. - Results The model explained 77% (with past behaviour accounting for 5%) of the variance in intention and 50% (with past behaviour accounting for 3%) of the variance in parental decisions to limit child screen time. Attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control, parental role construction, and past behaviour predicted intentions, and intentions and past behaviour predicted follow-up behaviour. Underlying screen time beliefs (e.g., increased parental distress, pressure from friends, inconvenience) were also identified as guiding parents' decisions. - Conclusion Results support the TPB and highlight the importance of beliefs for understanding parental decisions for children's screen time behaviours, as well as the addition of parental role construction. This formative research provides necessary depth of understanding of sedentary lifestyle behaviours in young children which can be adopted in future interventions to test the efficacy of the TPB mechanisms in changing parental behaviour for their child's health.

Asymptotic analysis for the coupled wavenumbers in an infinite fluid-filled flexible cylindrical shell: The axisymmetric mode

The coupled wavenumbers of a fluid-filled flexible cylindrical shell vibrating in the axisymmetric mode are studied. The coupled dispersion equation of the system is rewritten in the form of the uncoupled dispersion equation of the structure and the acoustic fluid, with an added fluid-loading term involving a parameter e due to the coupling. Using the smallness of Poisson's ratio (v), a double-asymptotic expansion involving e and v 2 is substituted in this equation. Analytical expressions are derived for the coupled wavenumbers (for large and small values of E). Different asymptotic expansions are used for different frequency ranges with continuous transitions occurring between them. The wavenumber solutions are continuously tracked as e varies from small to large values. A general trend observed is that a given wavenumber branch transits from a rigidwalled solution to a pressure-release solution with increasing E. Also, it is found that at any frequency where two wavenumbers intersect in the uncoupled analysis, there is no more an intersection in the coupled case, but a gap is created at that frequency. Only the axisymmetric mode is considered. However, the method can be extended to the higher order modes.