Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s

During the 1990s there was a major change in the state of the world's oceans. In particular, the North Atlantic underwent a rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the subpolar gyre region increasing by 1°C in just a few years. Associated with the changes in SST patterns were changes in the surface climate, in particular, a tendency for warm and dry conditions over areas of North America in all seasons, and warm springs and wet summers over areas of Europe. Here, the extent to which a climate prediction system initialized using observations of the ocean state is able to capture the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate is investigated. Rather than examining predictions of the mid-1990s North Atlantic warming event itself, this study compares hindcasts started before and after the warming, relative to hindcasts that do not assimilate information. It is demonstrated that the hindcasts capture many aspects of the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate, especially in North, South, and Central America and in Europe. Furthermore, the prediction system retains skill beyond the first year. Finally, it is shown that, in addition to memory of Atlantic SSTs, successfully predicting Pacific SSTs was likely important for the hindcasts to predict surface climate over North America.

Interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation over the Tropical Pacific in the late 1990s

The Walker circulation is one of the major components of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and variations in its strength are critical to equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation. It has been argued in the literature that during the 20th century the Walker circulation weakened, and that this weakening was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. By using updated observations, we show that there has been a rapid interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation since the late 1990s. Associated with this enhancement is enhanced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, anomalous westerlies in the upper troposphere, descent in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and anomalous surface easterlies in the western and central tropical Pacific. The characteristics of associated oceanic changes are a strengthened thermocline slope and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. Many characteristics of these changes are similar to those associated with the mid-1970s climate shift with an opposite sign. We also show that the interdecadal variability of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is inversely correlated to the interdecadal variability of the zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic. An enhancement of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is associated with a weakening zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic and vise versa, implying an inter-Atlantic-Pacific connection of the zonal overturning circulation variation. Whether these recent changes will be sustained is not yet clear, but our research highlights the importance of understanding the interdecadal variability, as well as the long-term trends, that influence tropical circulation.

Beyond difference: female participation in the Brazilian film revival of the 1990s

In this chapter, I will focus on the female participation in what became known as ‘The Retomada do Cinema Brasileiro’, or the Brazilian Film Revival, by thinking beyond differences of gender, class, age and ethnicity. I will first re-consider the Retomada phenomenon against the backdrop of its historical time, so as to evaluate whether the production boom of the period translated into a creative peak, and, if so, how much of this carried onto the present day. I will then look at the female participation in this phenomenon not just in terms of numerical growth of women film directors, admittedly impressive, but only partially reflective of the drastic changes in the modes of production and address effected by the neoliberal policies introduced in the country in the mid 1990s. I will argue that the most decisive contribution brought about by the rise of women in Brazilian filmmaking has been the spread of team work and shared authorship, as opposed to a mere aspiration to the auteur pantheon, as determined by a notoriously male-oriented tradition. Granted, films focusing on female victimisation were rife during the Retomada period and persist to this day, and they have been, and continue to be, invaluable for the understanding of women’s struggles in the country. However, rather than resorting to feminist readings of representational strategies in these films, I will draw attention to other, presentational aesthetic experiments, open to the documentary contingent and the unpredictable real, which, I argue, suspend the pedagogical character of representational narratives. In order to demonstrate that new theoretical tools are needed to understand the gender powers at play in contemporary world cinema, I will, to conclude, analyse an excerpt of the film, Delicate Crime (Crime delicado, Beto Brant, 2006), where team work comes out as a particularly effective female, and feminist, procedure.

Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2% ± 13.0% of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8% ± 13.6% of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5% ± 17.6% and 40.9% ± 18.4% of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene.

Older Australians : involvement in civil society in the 1990s

As Australia’s population continues to age, questions about how older individuals use their time holds increasing interest and significance for scholars and policy makers. As individuals near the end of their paid working life, and family roles and responsibilities diminish, the type of activities that will fill this time void have important implications for the health and wellbeing of older Australians and for the strength of civil society. In Australia, there have been sustained moves at all levels of government to encourage the more active engagement in community services of this group of citizens, given the size and significant amount of human capital of this cohort. However, international research suggests that this enthusiasm has not translated into increased volunteer activity for seniors, and that older citizens tend to spend their expanding discretionary time pursuing leisure activities, such as watching television or listening to the radio (Robinson & Godbey 1997; Wilson & Musick 1997; Thoits & Hewitt 2001). This study builds on a broader interest in how people choose to utilise time across the life course and how the experience of ageing shapes such decisions. This aim of this paper is twofold – first, to investigate how older Australians allocated their time in the 1990s, and how these time use patterns changed over a 5-year period, using nationally representative, longitudinal data from two waves of the Australian Time Use Survey. Second, the time use characteristics of those individuals who devote more time to social participation activities are examined, to investigate trends in volunteering across age cohorts, with a focus on those above the age of fifty.

Hot issues, new economy stocks and Australian industry IPO returns in the late 1990s

This paper analyses Australian IPOs at an industry level for the period 1994 to 1999. We find a significant relationship between capital weighted IPO industry returns and contemporaneous index returns suggesting that capital raising and money left on the table arguments matter. We do not find any hot issue years at an industry level. Further at an industry level we find that new economy listings are not different to listings from other sectors of the economy.

The Australian construction linkages in the 1990s

Abstract: During the 1990s, the construction sector played an important role with its growing contributions to the gross national product, gross domestic product and employment in the Australian economy. Using the newly released 1998-99 input-output table and four previously published tables by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, this paper aims to measure the sectoral linkages of the Australian construction sector in the 1990s in relation to other industrial countries. Results describe the increase in construction volume was mainly due to the increase in governmental and non-residential construction expenditures and lagging construction technology. The technical level of the non-residential construction sub-sector was a drag to the total construction, while the non-residential construction sub-sector presented a stronger economic push than that of the residential construction sub-sector. In the 1990s, the inputs and outputs' components of the construction sector were stable. The linkages of the Australian construction sector are discussed from an international point of view.

Overcoming barriers: black African chartered accountants in 1990s South Africa

This paper examines the experiences of black Africans in South Africa who became Chartered Accountants in the 1990s. Building on previous work on marginalized groups within the accounting profession, the study relies on interviews with 22 of those who overcame steep educational, economic, racial, cultural, and political obstacles to join a profession that had fewer than 1% black Africans as members. The interviews indicate that those black Africans who did manage to become CAs in the 1990s shared many common characteristics and experiences. They and their families placed a high value on education and made tremendous sacrifices to meet the requirements to earn the CA certification. Many overcame extreme poverty in their childhoods and attended poorly equipped schools. All were exceptionally accomplished academically, most qualifying for scholarships offered only to the very top black African students in the country. Most faced educational disruptions due to boycotts and political protests that shut down schools and many black universities in the years immediately prior to the bringing down of the apartheid regime. All faced racial discrimination in housing and education. Few had ever met a chartered accountant before enrolling in university; many had never heard of the certification until that point. In the 1990s when they entered some of the major firms to meet their training requirements, they were typically not given the same opportunities as their white peers. Now that they have become Chartered Accountants, and the government has changed and instituted affirmative action policies, most find that they are often offered jobs outside of public accounting. Still only composing about one percent of all chartered accountants, in a country that is 75% black African, most believed that the main road towards overcoming this disparity is through radical efforts to equalize educational opportunities in South Africa across racial lines. Most make professional decisions based at least in part on the opportunities a given position offers towards contributing to the black community.

CRA/Rio Tinto in the 1990s : a decade of deunionisation

Given the scale of Rio Tinto's battles with the Australialn union movement during the roll out of its deunionisation program throughout its diverse miniing and manufacturing operations, there is much to be learnt from examining how the company first introduced its 'staff' employment system at its Tiwai Point smelter in New Zealand in 1991. Hamersley Iron in 1993, and at its Comalco-run Bell Bay and Weipa operations during 1994-96. More importantly, however, it is worth knowing why the company was so successful in deunionising previously 'soldered on' union territory. Though no doubt assisted by sympathetic legal, political and economic environments, it was ultimately the demonstrationl of managerial strength and determination, coupled with a hesitant union leadership, which led to the success of the company's deunionisation strategy. As the union movemenlt makes tenative steps to attract workers back to the fold, there are valuable lessons to be gained from analysing these momentous events which constitute such a transformational period in the history of Australian industrial relations.

The simplicity of educational reforms : defining globalization and reframing educational policies during the 1990s

Reviewing the trends in educational reforms from the last decade provides opportunity for policy makers to understand the issues from the past with a view to improving the educational planning in the future. In the 90s globalization emerged as a great impetus for educational reforms, however a central problem concerning globalization was its full meaning and implications were still emergent therefore educational planning and policy making reflected a great deal of uncertainty. This paper reviews and analyses how educational policies from the 90s constructed globalization and uncertainty and whether the lessons from the 90s have implications for current policy making. Using computer assisted text analysis, this paper explores how educational policies from OECD, UNESCO and the World Bank coalesced with certain notions of globalisation that strategically guided educational reforms. By focusing on textual evidence, in a range of education policy from the 90s, the paper discusses how policy consolidated particular ideas about globalization and presented ‘simple’ recipes for educational change. When reviewing the 90s, the relationship between education and global change the macro policy research shows a trend towards narrowing focus on managerial and financial issues, specifically the paper discusses how OECD policy emphasized education a social and individual payoff, World Bank policy focused on education enabling the free flow of capital and UNESCO policy problematised globalization but focused on the importance of teachers as a way to create stability in education during the paradoxical times.