Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

Simulation and modelling tools for quantitative safety assessments of unmanned aircraft systems and operations

This paper presents two simple simulation and modelling tools designed to aid in the safety assessment required for unmanned aircraft operations within unsegregated airspace. First, a fast pair-wise encounter generator is derived to simulate the See and Avoid environment. The utility of the encounter generator is demonstrated through the development of a hybrid database and a statistical performance evaluation of an autonomous See and Avoid decision and control strategy. Second, an unmanned aircraft mission generator is derived to help visualise the impact of multiple persistent unmanned operations on existing air traffic. The utility of the mission generator is demonstrated through an example analysis of a mixed airspace environment using real traffic data in Australia. These simulation and modelling approaches constitute a useful and extensible set of analysis tools, that can be leveraged to help explore some of the more fundamental and challenging problems facing civilian unmanned aircraft system integration.

Systems Analysis of Tank Irrigation: II. Delayed Start and Water Deficit

Tank irrigation systems in the semiarid regions of India are discussed in this paper. To optimize the grain yield of rice, it is essential to start the agricultural operations in the second week of July so that favorable climatic conditions will prevail during flowering and yield formation stages. Because of low inflow during the initial few weeks of the crop season, often farmers are forced to delay planting until sufficient sowing rain and inflow have occurred or to adopt deficit irrigation during this period. The delayed start affects the grain yield, but will lead to an improved irrigation efficiency. A delayed start of agricultural operations with increased irrigation efficiency leads to the energy resources becoming critical during the peak requirement week, particularly those of female labor and animal power. This necessitates augmenting these resources during weeks of their peak use, either by reorganizing the traditional methods of cultivation or by importing from outside the system.

Aquatic agricultural systems in Cambodia: national situation analysis

The objective of the current report produced for the CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is to provide basic information on key constraints driving poverty and vulnerability in aquatic agricultural systems in the Tonle Sap region in Cambodia. Six objectives and corresponding research themes are included in the program: sustainable increases in productivity; equitable access to markets; resilience and adaptive capacity; empowering policies and institutions; reduced gender disparity; and expanded benefits for the resource-poor. In this report, the authors review the main aquatic agricultural systems (status, specific policies and strategies, interventions, challenges, and options), then review the main drivers of change. This leads to an identification of plans and strategies important to AAS, with a particular focus on perspectives, gaps and opportunities in national policies, community engagement, increased benefits, adaptive capacity, and gender. This review, of potential interest to decision makers and all development partners, leads to conclusions and recommendations aimed at policymakers and institutional as well as private investors in development.

Futures of inland aquatic agricultural systems and implications for fish agri-food systems in southern Africa

The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is collaborating with partners to develop and implement a foresight-based engagement with diverse stakeholders linked to aquatic agricultural systems. The program’s aim is to understand the implications of current drivers of change for fish agri-food systems, and consequently food and nutrition security, in Africa, Asia and the Pacific. Partners include the Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR), the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA) and the African Union’s New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AU-NEPAD). A key part of the program was a participatory scenario-building workshop held in July 2015 under the theme of "futures of aquatic agricultural systems and implications for fish agri-food systems in southern Africa." The objectives for the workshop were (i) to engage local stakeholders in exploring plausible futures of aquatic agricultural systems, and (ii) to broker and catalyze collaborative plans of action based on the foresight analysis. This report presents technical findings from the workshop. The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is collaborating with partners to develop and implement a foresight-based engagement with diverse stakeholders linked to aquatic agricultural systems. The program’s aim is to understand the implications of current drivers of change for fish agri-food systems, and consequently food and nutrition security, in Africa, Asia and the Pacific. Partners include the Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR), the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA) and the African Union’s New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AU-NEPAD). A key part of the program was a participatory scenario-building workshop held in July 2015 under the theme of "futures of aquatic agricultural systems and implications for fish agri-food systems in southern Africa." The objectives for the workshop were (i) to engage local stakeholders in exploring plausible futures of aquatic agricultural systems, and (ii) to broker and catalyze collaborative plans of action based on the foresight analysis. This report presents technical findings from the workshop.

Biofluid behaviour in 3D microchannel systems: Numerical analysis and design development of 3D microchannel biochip separators

This paper describes the design and development cycle of a 3D biochip separator and the modelling analysis of flow behaviour in the biochip microchannel features. The focus is on identifying the difference between 2D and 3D implementations as well as developing basic forms of 3D microfluidic separators. Five variants, based around the device are proposed and analysed. These include three variations of the branch channels (circular, rectangular, disc) and two variations of the main channel (solid and concentric). Ignoring the initial transient behaviour and assuming steady state flow has been established, the efficiencies of the flow between the main and side channels for the different designs are analysed and compared with regard to relevant biomicrofluidic laws or effects (bifurcation law, Fahraeus effect, cell-free phenomenon, bending channel effect and laminar flow behaviour). The modelling results identify flow features in microchannels, a constriction and bifurcations and show detailed differences in flow fields between the various designs. The manufacturing process using injection moulding for the initial base case design is also presented and discussed. The work reported here is supported as part of the UK funded 3D-MINTEGRATION project. © 2010 IEEE.

Modelling uncertainty in agricultural image analysis

C.M. Onyango, J.A. Marchant and R. Zwiggelaar, 'Modelling uncertainty in agricultural image analysis', Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 17 (3), 295-305 (1997)

Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Monitoring and modelling the three-dimensional flow of water under drip irrigation

The interpretation of soil water dynamics under drip irrigation systems is relevant for crop production as well as on water use and management. In this study a three-dimensional representation of the flow of water under drip irrigation is presented. The work includes analysis of the water balance at point scale as well as area-average, exploring uncertainties in water balance estimations depending on the number of locations sampled. The water flow was monitored by detailed profile water content measurements before irrigation, after irrigation and 24 h later with a dense array of soil moisture access tubes radially distributed around selected drippers. The objective was to develop a methodology that could be used on selected occasions to obtain 'snap shots' of the detailed three-dimensional patterns of soil moisture. Such patterns are likely to be very complex, as spatial variability will be induced for a number of reasons, such as strong horizontal gradients in soil moisture, variations between individual sources in the amount of water applied and spatial variability is soil hydraulic properties. Results are compared with a widely used numerical model, Hydrus-2D. The observed dynamic of the water content distribution is in good agreement with model simulations, although some discrepancies concerning the horizontal distribution of the irrigation bulb are noted due to soil heterogeneity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Análisis y diseño de multiplicadores y mezcladores mediante el método de Monte Carlo en la banda de THz = Analysis and design of multipliers and mixers via Monte Carlo modelling at THz bands

La región del espectro electromagnético comprendida entre 100 GHz y 10 THz alberga una gran variedad de aplicaciones en campos tan dispares como la radioastronomía, espectroscopíamolecular, medicina, seguridad, radar, etc. Los principales inconvenientes en el desarrollo de estas aplicaciones son los altos costes de producción de los sistemas trabajando a estas frecuencias, su costoso mantenimiento, gran volumen y baja fiabilidad. Entre las diferentes tecnologías a frecuencias de THz, la tecnología de los diodos Schottky juega un importante papel debido a su madurez y a la sencillez de estos dispositivos. Además, los diodos Schottky pueden operar tanto a temperatura ambiente como a temperaturas criogénicas, con altas eficiencias cuando se usan como multiplicadores y con moderadas temperaturas de ruido en mezcladores. El principal objetivo de esta tesis doctoral es analizar los fenómenos físicos responsables de las características eléctricas y del ruido en los diodos Schottky, así como analizar y diseñar circuitos multiplicadores y mezcladores en bandas milimétricas y submilimétricas. La primera parte de la tesis presenta un análisis de los fenómenos físicos que limitan el comportamiento de los diodos Schottky de GaAs y GaN y de las características del espectro de ruido de estos dispositivos. Para llevar a cabo este análisis, un modelo del diodo basado en la técnica de Monte Carlo se ha considerado como referencia debido a la elevada precisión y fiabilidad de este modelo. Además, el modelo de Monte Carlo permite calcular directamente el espectro de ruido de los diodos sin necesidad de utilizar ningún modelo analítico o empírico. Se han analizado fenómenos físicos como saturación de la velocidad, inercia de los portadores, dependencia de la movilidad electrónica con la longitud de la epicapa, resonancias del plasma y efectos no locales y no estacionarios. También se ha presentado un completo análisis del espectro de ruido para diodos Schottky de GaAs y GaN operando tanto en condiciones estáticas como variables con el tiempo. Los resultados obtenidos en esta parte de la tesis contribuyen a mejorar la comprensión de la respuesta eléctrica y del ruido de los diodos Schottky en condiciones de altas frecuencias y/o altos campos eléctricos. También, estos resultados han ayudado a determinar las limitaciones de modelos numéricos y analíticos usados en el análisis de la respuesta eléctrica y del ruido electrónico en los diodos Schottky. La segunda parte de la tesis está dedicada al análisis de multiplicadores y mezcladores mediante una herramienta de simulación de circuitos basada en la técnica de balance armónico. Diferentes modelos basados en circuitos equivalentes del dispositivo, en las ecuaciones de arrastre-difusión y en la técnica de Monte Carlo se han considerado en este análisis. El modelo de Monte Carlo acoplado a la técnica de balance armónico se ha usado como referencia para evaluar las limitaciones y el rango de validez de modelos basados en circuitos equivalentes y en las ecuaciones de arrastredifusión para el diseño de circuitos multiplicadores y mezcladores. Una notable característica de esta herramienta de simulación es que permite diseñar circuitos Schottky teniendo en cuenta tanto la respuesta eléctrica como el ruido generado en los dispositivos. Los resultados de las simulaciones presentados en esta parte de la tesis, tanto paramultiplicadores comomezcladores, se han comparado con resultados experimentales publicados en la literatura. El simulador que integra el modelo de Monte Carlo con la técnica de balance armónico permite analizar y diseñar circuitos a frecuencias superiores a 1 THz. ABSTRACT The terahertz region of the electromagnetic spectrum(100 GHz-10 THz) presents a wide range of applications such as radio-astronomy, molecular spectroscopy, medicine, security and radar, among others. The main obstacles for the development of these applications are the high production cost of the systems working at these frequencies, highmaintenance, high volume and low reliability. Among the different THz technologies, Schottky technology plays an important rule due to its maturity and the inherent simplicity of these devices. Besides, Schottky diodes can operate at both room and cryogenic temperatures, with high efficiency in multipliers and moderate noise temperature in mixers. This PhD. thesis is mainly concerned with the analysis of the physical processes responsible for the characteristics of the electrical response and noise of Schottky diodes, as well as the analysis and design of frequency multipliers and mixers at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths. The first part of the thesis deals with the analysis of the physical phenomena limiting the electrical performance of GaAs and GaN Schottky diodes and their noise performance. To carry out this analysis, a Monte Carlo model of the diode has been used as a reference due to the high accuracy and reliability of this diode model at millimeter and submillimter wavelengths. Besides, the Monte Carlo model provides a direct description of the noise spectra of the devices without the necessity of any additional analytical or empirical model. Physical phenomena like velocity saturation, carrier inertia, dependence of the electron mobility on the epilayer length, plasma resonance and nonlocal effects in time and space have been analysed. Also, a complete analysis of the current noise spectra of GaAs and GaN Schottky diodes operating under static and time varying conditions is presented in this part of the thesis. The obtained results provide a better understanding of the electrical and the noise responses of Schottky diodes under high frequency and/or high electric field conditions. Also these results have helped to determine the limitations of numerical and analytical models used in the analysis of the electrical and the noise responses of these devices. The second part of the thesis is devoted to the analysis of frequency multipliers and mixers by means of an in-house circuit simulation tool based on the harmonic balance technique. Different lumped equivalent circuits, drift-diffusion and Monte Carlo models have been considered in this analysis. The Monte Carlo model coupled to the harmonic balance technique has been used as a reference to evaluate the limitations and range of validity of lumped equivalent circuit and driftdiffusion models for the design of frequency multipliers and mixers. A remarkable feature of this reference simulation tool is that it enables the design of Schottky circuits from both electrical and noise considerations. The simulation results presented in this part of the thesis for both multipliers and mixers have been compared with measured results available in the literature. In addition, the Monte Carlo simulation tool allows the analysis and design of circuits above 1 THz.

Anaerobic Digestion Project Working Guide: A Case Study Analysis and Procedural Summary of Anaerobic Digester Projects for the United States Agricultural Sector

Renewable energy such as biomass has given markets, including dairy farms, an effective approach to reducing the costs of sustaining a profitable business. Anaerobic digestion systems offer dairy farms a very effective way to reduce manure odor, comply with soil and water pollution regulations, manufacture compost for general market sales, produce irrigation capacity and generate on-site electricity as well as the ability to sell excess electricity back to the local utilities. This project defines anaerobic digestion technologies and practices, analyzes case studies and presents a step-by-step anaerobic digestion project startup checklist. The result is an anaerobic digestion project working guide that acts as a tool to aid dairy farmers in their own potential anaerobic digestion project.

Will improved access to capital dampen the need for more agricultural land? A CGE analysis of agricultural capital markets and world-wide biofuel policies. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 48, May 2013

This paper analyses the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers biofuel policies implemented as binding blending targets for transportation fuels. The chosen quantitative modelling approach is two-fold: it combines the analysis of biofuel policies in a multi-sectoral economic model (MAGNET) with systematic variation of the functioning of capital and labour markets. This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the application multi-sectoral modelling system with different assumptions on the mobility of factor markets allows for the observation of changes in economic indicators under different conditions of how factor markets work. Systematic variation of factor mobility indicates that the ‘burden’ of global biofuel policies is not equally distributed across different factors within agricultural production. Agricultural land, as the pre-dominant and sector-specific factor, is, regardless of different degrees of inter-sectoral or intra-sectoral factor mobility, the most important factor limiting the expansion of agricultural production. More capital and higher employment in agriculture will ease the pressure on additional land use – but only partly. To expand agricultural production at global scale requires both land and mobile factors adapted to increase total factor productivity in agriculture in the most efficient way.

Applying ontologies to business and systems modelling techniques and perspectives: Lessons learned

For many years in the area of business systems analysis and design, practitioners and researchers alike have been searching for some comprehensive basis on which to evaluate, compare, and engineer techniques that are promoted for use in the modelling of systems' requirements. To date, while many frameworks, factors, and facets have been forthcoming, none appear to be based on a sound theory. In light of this dilemma, over the last 10 years, attention has been devoted by researchers to the use of ontology to provide some theoretical basis for the advancement of the business systems modelling discipline. This paper outlines how we have used a particular ontology for this purpose over the last five years. In particular we have learned that the understandability and the applicability of the selected ontology must be clear for IS professionals, the results of any ontological evaluation must be tempered by economic efficiency considerations of the stakeholders involved, and ontologies may have to be focused for the business purpose and type of user involved in the modelling situation.

A methodology for analysis and control of discrete event dynamic systems

The rapid developments in computer technology have resulted in a widespread use of discrete event dynamic systems (DEDSs). This type of system is complex because it exhibits properties such as concurrency, conflict and non-determinism. It is therefore important to model and analyse such systems before implementation to ensure safe, deadlock free and optimal operation. This thesis investigates current modelling techniques and describes Petri net theory in more detail. It reviews top down, bottom up and hybrid Petri net synthesis techniques that are used to model large systems and introduces on object oriented methodology to enable modelling of larger and more complex systems. Designs obtained by this methodology are modular, easy to understand and allow re-use of designs. Control is the next logical step in the design process. This thesis reviews recent developments in control DEDSs and investigates the use of Petri nets in the design of supervisory controllers. The scheduling of exclusive use of resources is investigated and an efficient Petri net based scheduling algorithm is designed and a re-configurable controller is proposed. To enable the analysis and control of large and complex DEDSs, an object oriented C++ software tool kit was developed and used to implement a Petri net analysis tool, Petri net scheduling and control algorithms. Finally, the methodology was applied to two industrial DEDSs: a prototype can sorting machine developed by Eurotherm Controls Ltd., and a semiconductor testing plant belonging to SGS Thomson Microelectronics Ltd.