Equatorial Kelvin waves as revealed by EOS Microwave Limb Sounder observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses: Evidence for slow Kelvin waves of zonal wave number 3

[1] Temperature and ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the EOS Aura satellite are used to study equatorial wave activity in the autumn of 2005. In contrast to previous observations for the same season in other years, the temperature anomalies in the middle and lower tropical stratosphere are found to be characterized by a strong wave-like eastward progression with zonal wave number equal to 3. Extended empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the wave 3 components detected in the temperature anomalies correspond to a slow Kelvin wave with a period of 8 days and a phase speed of 19 m/s. Fluctuations associated with this Kelvin wave mode are also apparent in ozone profiles. Moreover, as expected by linear theory, the ozone fluctuations observed in the lower stratosphere are in phase with the temperature perturbations, and peak around 20–30 hPa where the mean ozone mixing ratios have the steepest vertical gradient. A search for other Kelvin wave modes has also been made using both the MLS observations and the analyses from one experiment where MLS ozone profiles are assimilated into the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data assimilation system via a 6-hourly 3D var scheme. Our results show that the characteristics of the wave activity detected in the ECMWF temperature and ozone analyses are in good agreement with MLS data.

Turning points: the personal and professional circumstances that lead academics to become middle managers

In the current higher education climate, there is a growing perception that the pressures associated with being an academic middle manager outweigh the perceived rewards of the position. This article investigates the personal and professional circumstances that lead academics to become middle managers by drawing on data from life history interviews undertaken with 17 male and female department heads from a range of disciplines, in a post-1992 UK university. The data suggests that experiencing conflict between personal and professional identities, manifested through different socialization experiences over time, can lead to a ‘turning point’ and a decision that affects a person’s career trajectory. Although the results of this study cannot be generalized, the findings may help other individuals and institutions move towards a firmer understanding of the academic who becomes head of department—in relation to theory, practice and research.

From short-range barotropic modelling to extended-range global weather prediction: a 40-year perspective

At the end of the 20th century, we can look back on a spectacular development of numerical weather prediction, which has, practically uninterrupted, been going on since the middle of the century. High-resolution predictions for more than a week ahead for any part of the globe are now routinely produced and anyone with an Internet connection can access many of these forecasts for anywhere in the world. Extended predictions for several seasons ahead are also being done — the latest El Niño event in 1997/1998 is an example of such a successful prediction. The great achievement is due to a number of factors including the progress in computational technology and the establishment of global observing systems, combined with a systematic research program with an overall strategy towards building comprehensive prediction systems for climate and weather. In this article, I will discuss the different evolutionary steps in this development and the way new scientific ideas have contributed to efficiently explore the computing power and in using observations from new types of observing systems. Weather prediction is not an exact science due to unavoidable errors in initial data and in the models. To quantify the reliability of a forecast is therefore essential and probably more so the longer the forecasts are. Ensemble prediction is thus a new and important concept in weather and climate prediction, which I believe will become a routine aspect of weather prediction in the future. The limit between weather and climate prediction is becoming more and more diffuse and in the final part of this article I will outline the way I think development may proceed in the future.

Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

Correlations of long-lived chemical species in a middle atmosphere general circulation model

Correlations between various chemical species simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, a general circulation model with fully interactive chemistry, are considered in order to investigate the general conditions under which compact correlations can be expected to form. At the same time, the analysis serves to validate the model. The results are compared to previous work on this subject, both from theoretical studies and from atmospheric measurements made from space and from aircraft. The results highlight the importance of having a data set with good spatial coverage when working with correlations and provide a background against which the compactness of correlations obtained from atmospheric measurements can be confirmed. It is shown that for long-lived species, distinct correlations are found in the model in the tropics, the extratropics, and the Antarctic winter vortex. Under these conditions, sparse sampling such as arises from occultation instruments is nevertheless suitable to define a chemical correlation within each region even from a single day of measurements, provided a sufficient range of mixing ratio values is sampled. In practice, this means a large vertical extent, though the requirements are less stringent at more poleward latitudes.

First results from a 3-dimensional middle atmosphere model

Initial results are presented from a middle atmosphere extension to a version of the European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasting tropospheric model. The extended version of the model has been developed as part of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Project and extends from the ground to approximately 90 km. A comprehensive solar radiation scheme is included which uses monthly averaged climatological ozone values. A linearised infrared cooling scheme is employed. The basic climatology of the model is described; the parametrization of drag due to orographically forced gravity waves is shown to have a dramatic effect on the simulations of the winter hemisphere.

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

The Earls of Kildare and their books at the end of the Middle Ages

The two surviving inventories of the library of the Fitzgerald Earls of Kildare bear witness to a particularly large and diverse collection of books in the Earls' castle at Maynooth, Co. Kildare. Between them, the lists record well over one hundred separate items in four languages: Latin, French, English and Irish. This paper traces the history of the library and analyses the Fitzgeralds' particular interests as book collectors and as readers. It provides the first full published set of suggested identifications and bibliographical details for the books at Maynooth. It also includes a fresh transcription of the library lists and a discussion of the manuscript context in which they are preserved. Sources like the Kildare library lists provide valuable evidence for the potential circulation of a wide range of non-native manuscripts and prints in late-medieval Ireland.

A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in region-wide drought, including the two most severe of the last fifty years—1999-2001 and 2007-2008—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, predictability of vegetation and crop yields, stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.

Middle Proterozoic vein-hosted gold deposits in the Pontes e Lacerda region, southwestern Amazonian craton, Brazil

Structural, geochemical, and isotope studies were carried out on the gold deposits of the Pontes e Lacerda region (Mato Grosso state, Brazil), where rocks of the Aguapei and Rondoniano mobile belts (southwestern Amazonian craton) occur. The orebodies are hosted in metavolcanic, gneiss-granite, quartzite, tonalite, and granite units. Tectonics involve oblique overthrusting (from northeast to southwest), which led to the formation of recumbent folds and thrusts (pathways for the mineralizing fluids), upright folds, and faults with dominant strike-slip component. These unconformities represent potential sites for mineralization. During geological mapping, it was observed that the orebodies consist of quartz, pyrite, and gold, and that the hydrothermal alteration zone contains quartz, sericite, pyrite (altered to limonite), and magnetite (altered to hematite). Chalcopyrite, galena, and sphalerite occur only in the Onça deposit. Chemical analysis of sulfides indicates high contents of Bi, Se, and Te in sulfides and gold, suggesting plutonic involvement in the origin of hydrothermal solutions. K-Ar dating of hydrothermal sericites from gold veins yielded ages in the range from 960 to 840 Ma, which may indicate the age of original crystallization of sericite. Pb-Pb dating in galenas yielded model ages in the range from 1000 to 800 Ma for the Onça deposit, which is in agreement with K-Ar ages. Pb-isotopic ratios indicate high U/Pb and low Th/Pb for the upper-crustal Pb source before incorporation in galena crystals. The Pontes e Lacerda gold deposits yielded ages correlated to the Aguapei event and probably were formed during a Proterozoic contractional tectonic period in the southwestern part of the Amazon craton, which may characterize an important metallogenic epoch in the Pontes e Lacerda region.

Alien fishes in lakes of the Doce river basin (Brazil): Range, new occurrences and conservation of native communities

The present study shows the distribution of alien fish species in tropical lakes in the middle Doce river basin, southeastern Brazil, obtained from a rapid assessment program. The causes for their introductions were sport-fishing improvement in some specific lakes and aquaculture in the studied basin. Presently, these species have a wide distribution occurring in 41 of the 54 lakes studied, representing an actual threat to regional native fish community. The natural connection among lakes and streams during the rainy season and the dispersal mediated by local people are the main invasion agents for alien fishes. The success of these invaders is probably due to absence of pre-existing effective competitors or top-predators in the invaded communities. We consider that the eradication of alien fishes by means of the available management tools may be very difficult due to the large number of lakes invaded and to the wide spectrum of lake conditions and resources exploited by these alien species. We recommend the use of environmental education as a tool to stop the human-mediated dispersion of aliens and to improve conservation of native fish community in lakes where these alien species are not present yet. © 2004 Instituto de Ciências Biológicas - UFMG.

Financing for development and middle income-countries: new challenges

Spanish version avalilable at the Library

Identification of speeded and slowed familiar melodies by younger, middle-aged, and older musicians and nonmusicians

There is a range of tempos within which listeners can identify familiar tunes (around 0.8 to 6.0 notes/s). Faster and slower tunes are difficult to identify. The authors assessed fast and slow melody-identification thresholds for 80 listeners ages 17–79 years with expertise varying from musically untrained to professional. On fast-to-slow (FS) trials the tune started at a very fast tempo and slowed until the listener identified it. Slow-to-fast (SF) trials started slow and accelerated. Tunes either retained their natural rhythms or were stylized isochronous versions. Increased expertise led to better performance for both FS and SF thresholds (r = .45). Performance declined uniformly across the 62-year age range in the FS condition (r = .27). SF performance was unaffected by age. Although early encoding processes may slow with age, expertise has a greater effect. Musical expertise involves perceptual learning with melodies at a wide range of tempos.

The Position of Russian Provinical Officialdom in the Middle of the 19th Century: Law and Life

The study considered the discrepancy between the official status and real position of Russian provincial officialdom in the middle of the 19th century. The law was not entirely coherent in all aspects of the officials' life and activity, with ordinary deviations from the law being adopted in practice and accepted, albeit not openly, by the public and sometimes even by the authorities. The main law determining the rights and duties of governors was never followed to the letter and in reality governors' activities were determined by the common (unwritten) law existing in the governmental sphere. The volume and nature of the governors' rights depended on a range of factors, with specific regional features and the governor's personal qualities having a particular significance. The standard of living of government clerks was much higher than their official salary would permit and Matkhanova studied the most widespread cases of abuse, identifying those positions in the administration which offered the most opportunities for such abuses. At the start of the period and on the eve of the reforms public opinion towards the bribery of officials underwent a change. From the late 1850s onwards, there appeared among provincial officials a group of young well-educated clerks with liberal ideas and a new system of moral values which did not allow them to accept bribes or infringe the law in any way. There was also a non-official hierarchy side by side with the legally existing one. A significant role in governing the region, and one which has been underestimated by historians, was played by the head of the governor's office, but the reforms of the 1860s contributed to changing this state of affairs.

First middle-atmospheric zonal wind profile measurements with a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer

We report on the wind radiometer WIRA, a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer specifically designed for the measurement of middle-atmospheric horizontal wind by observing ozone emission spectra at 142.17504 GHz. Currently, wind speeds in five levels between 30 and 79 km can be retrieved which makes WIRA the first instrument able to continuously measure horizontal wind in this altitude range. For an integration time of one day the measurement error on each level lies at around 25 m s−1. With a planned upgrade this value is expected to be reduced by a factor of 2 in the near future. On the altitude levels where our measurement can be compared to wind data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) very good agreement in the long-term statistics as well as in short time structures with a duration of a few days has been found. WIRA uses a passive double sideband heterodyne receiver together with a digital Fourier transform spectrometer for the data acquisition. A big advantage of the radiometric approach is that such instruments can also operate under adverse weather conditions and thus provide a continuous time series for the given location. The optics enables the instrument to scan a wide range of azimuth angles including the directions east, west, north, and south for zonal and meridional wind measurements. The design of the radiometer is fairly compact and its calibration does not rely on liquid nitrogen which makes it transportable and suitable for campaign use. WIRA is conceived in a way that it can be operated remotely and does hardly require any maintenance. In the present paper, a description of the instrument is given, and the techniques used for the wind retrieval based on the determination of the Doppler shift of the measured atmospheric ozone emission spectra are outlined. Their reliability was tested using Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, a time series of 11 months of zonal wind measurements over Bern (46°57′ N, 7°26′ E) is presented and compared to ECMWF wind data.