Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

Reducing the Adverse Effects of Transverse Cracking, HR-217, 1984

This research was initiated to identify methods of reducing the occurrence of transverse cracking. Eight (four repetitive) research sections were established to study three variations in the asphalt concrete pavement. The first variation was the comparison of low- and high-temperature-susceptible asphalt cement (AC) from two different sources. The second variable was to saw and seal transverse joints at spacings varying from 40 to 100 ft. The third variable was to increase the AC content in the asphalt treated base by 1 percent. The research sections were constructed with relatively few problems. Crack and joint surveys have been conducted on all research sections at intervals of less than 1 year since construction. No cracking was identified after the first winter season. The sawed joints also remained sealed through the first winter. At an age of approximately 1 1/2 years there was substantial cracking of the high-temperature-susceptible AC sections and substantial failure of the sealant material in the sawed joints. After almost 4 years, the asphalt pavement constructed with the high-temperature-susceptible AC produced a crack interval of 35 ft, the low-temperature-susceptible AC yielded an interval of 170 ft, and the low-temperature-susceptible AC with an increased AC content yielded an interval of 528 ft. The Pen-Vis number is an effective measure of temperature susceptibility of asphalt cements. The frequency of transverse cracking is affected by the temperature susceptibility of the AC. An increased AC content also reduces the frequency of transverse cracking.

"Suddenly I get into the zone": Examining discontinuities and nonlinear changes in flow experiences at work

Work-related flow is defined as a sudden and enjoyable merging of action and awareness that represents a peak experience in the daily lives of workers. Employees" perceptions of challenge and skill and their subjective experiences in terms of enjoyment, interest and absorption were measured using the experience sampling method, yielding a total of 6981 observations from a sample of 60 employees. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes. According to the R2, AICc and BIC indexes, the nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e. cusp catastrophe model) fit the data better than the linear and logistic regression models. Likewise, the cusp catastrophe model appears to be especially powerful for modelling those cases of high levels of flow. Overall, flow represents a nonequilibrium condition that combines continuous and abrupt changes across time. Research and intervention efforts concerned with this process should focus on the variable of challenge, which, according to our study, appears to play a key role in the abrupt changes observed in work-related flow.

Contribution of multimorbidity to overall mortality in the population-based CoLaus study

Introduction : Multimorbidity (MM) is currently a major health concern for hospitalized patients but little is known about the relative importance of MM in the general population. Accordingly we assessed whether MM could be a good predictor of overall mortality. Method : Data from the population based CoLaus Study: 3239 participants (1731 women, mean age 50+/-9 years) followed for a median time of 5.4 years (range 0.4 to 8.5 years). MM was defined as presenting >=2 morbidities according to Barnett et al. (27 items, measured data). Survival analysis was conducted using Cox regression. Results : During follow-up, 53 (1.6%) participants died. Participants who died had a higher number of morbidities (2.4 +/- 1.6 vs. 1.9 +/- 1.5, p<0.05) and had a higher prevalence of MM (69.8% vs. 55.9%, p<0.05). On bivariate analysis, presence of MM (defined as a yes/no variable) was significantly related with overall mortality: relative risk (RR) of 1.84, 95% confidence interval [1.02; 3.31], p<0.05 (see figure), but this association became non-significant after adjusting for age, gender and smoking: RR=1.68 [0.93; 3.04], p=0.09. Similar results were obtained when using the number of morbidities: RR for an extra morbidity 1.22 [1.05; 1.44], p<0.02; after adjusting for age, gender and smoking, RR=1.16 [0.99; 1.37], p=0.07. Conclusion : During a short 5 year observation period, measured MM in the general population is associated with overall mortality. This association becomes borderline significant after multivariate adjustment. These observations will have to be confirmed during a longer follow-up period. This increased mortality in MM patients may require developing specific strategies of screening and prevention.

MRI of coronary vessel walls using radial k-space sampling and steady-state free precession imaging.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to investigate the impact of radial k-space sampling and steady-state free precession (SSFP) imaging on image quality in MRI of coronary vessel walls. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Eleven subjects were examined on a 1.5-T MR system using three high-resolution navigator-gated and cardiac-triggered 3D black blood sequences (cartesian gradient-echo [GRE], radial GRE, and radial SSFP) with identical spatial resolution (0.9 x 0.9 x 2.4 mm3). The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), vessel wall sharpness, and motion artifacts were analyzed. RESULTS: The mean SNR and CNR of the coronary vessel wall were improved using radial imaging and were best using radial k-space sampling combined with SSFP imaging. Vessel border definition was similar for all three sequences. Radial k-space sampling was found to be less sensitive to motion. Consistently good image quality was seen with the radial GRE sequence. CONCLUSION: Radial k-space sampling in MRI of coronary vessel walls resulted in fewer motion artifacts and improved SNR and CNR. The use of SSFP imaging, however, did not result in improved coronary vessel wall visualization.

Evolution of the P-type II ATPase gene family in the fungi and presence of structural genomic changes among isolates of Glomus intraradices.

BACKGROUND: The P-type II ATPase gene family encodes proteins with an important role in adaptation of the cell to variation in external K+, Ca2+ and Na2+ concentrations. The presence of P-type II gene subfamilies that are specific for certain kingdoms has been reported but was sometimes contradicted by discovery of previously unknown homologous sequences in newly sequenced genomes. Members of this gene family have been sampled in all of the fungal phyla except the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF; phylum Glomeromycota), which are known to play a key-role in terrestrial ecosystems and to be genetically highly variable within populations. Here we used highly degenerate primers on AMF genomic DNA to increase the sampling of fungal P-Type II ATPases and to test previous predictions about their evolution. In parallel, homologous sequences of the P-type II ATPases have been used to determine the nature and amount of polymorphism that is present at these loci among isolates of Glomus intraradices harvested from the same field. RESULTS: In this study, four P-type II ATPase sub-families have been isolated from three AMF species. We show that, contrary to previous predictions, P-type IIC ATPases are present in all basal fungal taxa. Additionally, P-Type IIE ATPases should no longer be considered as exclusive to the Ascomycota and the Basidiomycota, since we also demonstrate their presence in the Zygomycota. Finally, a comparison of homologous sequences encoding P-type IID ATPases showed unexpectedly that indel mutations among coding regions, as well as specific gene duplications occur among AMF individuals within the same field. CONCLUSION: On the basis of these results we suggest that the diversification of P-Type IIC and E ATPases followed the diversification of the extant fungal phyla with independent events of gene gains and losses. Consistent with recent findings on the human genome, but at a much smaller geographic scale, we provided evidence that structural genomic changes, such as exonic indel mutations and gene duplications are less rare than previously thought and that these also occur within fungal populations.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for chest wall syndrome in primary care.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest wall syndrome (CWS), the main cause of chest pain in primary care practice, is most often an exclusion diagnosis. We developed and evaluated a clinical prediction rule for CWS. METHODS: Data from a multicenter clinical cohort of consecutive primary care patients with chest pain were used (59 general practitioners, 672 patients). A final diagnosis was determined after 12 months of follow-up. We used the literature and bivariate analyses to identify candidate predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a clinical prediction rule for CWS. We used data from a German cohort (n = 1212) for external validation. RESULTS: From bivariate analyses, we identified six variables characterizing CWS: thoracic pain (neither retrosternal nor oppressive), stabbing, well localized pain, no history of coronary heart disease, absence of general practitioner's concern, and pain reproducible by palpation. This last variable accounted for 2 points in the clinical prediction rule, the others for 1 point each; the total score ranged from 0 to 7 points. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.76-0.83) in the derivation cohort (specificity: 89%; sensitivity: 45%; cut-off set at 6 points). Among all patients presenting CWS (n = 284), 71% (n = 201) had a pain reproducible by palpation and 45% (n = 127) were correctly diagnosed. For a subset (n = 43) of these correctly classified CWS patients, 65 additional investigations (30 electrocardiograms, 16 thoracic radiographies, 10 laboratory tests, eight specialist referrals, one thoracic computed tomography) had been performed to achieve diagnosis. False positives (n = 41) included three patients with stable angina (1.8% of all positives). External validation revealed the ROC curve to be 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.79) with a sensitivity of 22% and a specificity of 93%. CONCLUSIONS: This CWS score offers a useful complement to the usual CWS exclusion diagnosing process. Indeed, for the 127 patients presenting CWS and correctly classified by our clinical prediction rule, 65 additional tests and exams could have been avoided. However, the reproduction of chest pain by palpation, the most important characteristic to diagnose CWS, is not pathognomonic.

Prospective sampling based on model ensembles improves the detection of rare species

Identifying the geographic distribution of populations is a basic, yet crucial step in many fundamental and applied ecological projects, as it provides key information on which many subsequent analyses depend. However, this task is often costly and time consuming, especially where rare species are concerned and where most sampling designs generally prove inefficient. At the same time, rare species are those for which distribution data are most needed for their conservation to be effective. To enhance fieldwork sampling, model-based sampling (MBS) uses predictions from species distribution models: when looking for the species in areas of high habitat suitability, chances should be higher to find them. We thoroughly tested the efficiency of MBS by conducting an important survey in the Swiss Alps, assessing the detection rate of three rare and five common plant species. For each species, habitat suitability maps were produced following an ensemble modeling framework combining two spatial resolutions and two modeling techniques. We tested the efficiency of MBS and the accuracy of our models by sampling 240 sites in the field (30 sitesx8 species). Across all species, the MBS approach proved to be effective. In particular, the MBS design strictly led to the discovery of six sites of presence of one rare plant, increasing chances to find this species from 0 to 50%. For common species, MBS doubled the new population discovery rates as compared to random sampling. Habitat suitability maps coming from the combination of four individual modeling methods predicted well the species' distribution and more accurately than the individual models. As a conclusion, using MBS for fieldwork could efficiently help in increasing our knowledge of rare species distribution. More generally, we recommend using habitat suitability models to support conservation plans.

Hand-disinfectant alcoholic vapors in incubators

Objective: To analyze the atmosphere inside incubators regarding alcoholic solvent such as isopropanol or ethanol which are commonly used in hand disinfecting solutions. Design: Observational. Setting: The third level neonatal unit of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland. Patients: Nine neonates with median (range) gestational age of 29 4/7 (25 5/7-39 0/7) weeks and birth weight of 960 (550-3050) grams. All neonates were inside incubators. Interventions: Alcoholic vapors inside incubators were directly and cumulatively measured by photoionisation and gas chromatography respectively after absorption on a charcoal sampling tube. Results: Eleven studies (mean study time: 230 ± 19 minutes) were performed. Highly variable isopropanol/ethanol concentrations profiles were found inside incubators. Peak value for isopropanol was 1982 part per million and for ethanol was 906 part per million. Conclusions: Incubators' inner atmosphere can be highly polluted by alcohol vapors. To reduce them staff should respect long evaporation time between hands disinfection and manipulations inside incubators. The use of an ethanol-based disinfecting solution, because of its short evaporation time, could be favored. As alcohol vapor toxicity for neonate remains largely unknown, further studies could be welcome.

Solid-phase microextraction as short-term sampling technique for BTEX occupational exposure

Solid phase microextraction (SPME) has been widely used for many years in various applications, such as environmental and water samples, food and fragrance analysis, or biological fluids. The aim of this study was to suggest the SPME method as an alternative to conventional techniques used in the evaluation of worker exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX). Polymethylsiloxane-carboxen (PDMS/CAR) showed as the most effective stationary phase material for sorbing BTEX among other materials (polyacrylate, PDMS, PDMS/divinylbenzene, Carbowax/divinylbenzene). Various experimental conditions were studied to apply SPME to BTEX quantitation in field situations. The uptake rate of the selected fiber (75 μm PDMS/CAR) was determined for each analyte at various concentrations, relative humidities, and airflow velocities from static (calm air) to dynamic (>200 cm/s) conditions. The SPME method also was compared with the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health method 1501. Unlike the latter, the SPME approach fulfills the new requirement for the threshold limit value-short term exposure limit (TLV-STEL) of 2.5 ppm for benzene (8 mg/m3).

Improvement of therapeutic drug monitoring of imatinib by Bayesian prediction of trough levels. Personalized drug dosage

Aims: Plasma concentrations of imatinib differ largely between patients despite same dosage, owing to large inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. As the drug concentration at the end of the dosage interval (Cmin) correlates with treatment response and tolerability, monitoring of Cmin is suggested for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of imatinib. Due to logistic difficulties, random sampling during the dosage interval is however often performed in clinical practice, thus rendering the respective results not informative regarding Cmin values.Objectives: (I) To extrapolate randomly measured imatinib concentrations to more informative Cmin using classical Bayesian forecasting. (II) To extend the classical Bayesian method to account for correlation between PK parameters. (III) To evaluate the predictive performance of both methods.Methods: 31 paired blood samples (random and trough levels) were obtained from 19 cancer patients under imatinib. Two Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) methods were implemented: (A) a classical method ignoring correlation between PK parameters, and (B) an extended one accounting for correlation. Both methods were applied to estimate individual PK parameters, conditional on random observations and covariate-adjusted priors from a population PK model. The PK parameter estimates were used to calculate trough levels. Relative prediction errors (PE) were analyzed to evaluate accuracy (one-sample t-test) and to compare precision between the methods (F-test to compare variances).Results: Both Bayesian MAP methods allowed non-biased predictions of individual Cmin compared to observations: (A) - 7% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 4 %, p = 0.15) and (B) - 4% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 10 %, p = 0.69). Relative standard deviations of actual observations from predictions were 22% (A) and 30% (B), i.e. comparable to the intraindividual variability reported. Precision was not improved by taking into account correlation between PK parameters (p = 0.22).Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian extrapolation to maximum likelihood Cmin. Classical Bayesian estimation can be applied for TDM without the need to include correlation between PK parameters. Both methods could be adapted in the future to evaluate other individual pharmacokinetic measures correlated to clinical outcomes, such as area under the curve(AUC).

Limited sampling strategies for monitoring tacrolimus in paediatric liver transplant recipients

Ce travail de recherche a été réalisé dans le laboratoire de pharmacologie clinique, au Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Sainte-Justine, à Montréal. C'est une étude rétrospective basée sur le suivi thérapeutique du Tacrolimus prescrit chez les enfants après transplantation hépatique. Ce suivi est nécessaire car le Tacrolimus possède une importante variabilité pharmacocinétique inter et intra-individuelle ainsi qu'un index thérapeutique très étroit. Actuellement, l'individualisation des doses prescrites est basée sur la mesure de la concentration de base - du médicament dans le sang (C0), mais des études récentes montrent que cette mesure ne reflète pas précisément l'exposition du Tacrolimus dans l'organisme chez les enfants. Le meilleur reflet de cette exposition est la mesure de l'aire sous la courbe (AUC). Cependant, cette dernière implique la mesure de multiples concentrations tout au long de l'intervalle entre 2 doses de médicament (Tacrolimus: 12 heures) ce qui est long, cher et impraticable en ambulatoire. De nouvelles méthodes utilisant un nombre limité de prélèvements ont donc été développées pour prédire au mieux cette AUC. Ce sont les "Limited sampling strategies" ou LSS. La plupart de ces LSS pour le Tacrolimus ont été développées et validées chez des patients transplantés adultes et leur application directe chez les transplantés pédiatriques n'est pas possible en raison de différences importantes au niveau des paramètres pharmacocinétiques du médicament entre ces deux populations. Aussi, le but de ce travail était de développer et valider, pour la première fois, des LSS chez les enfants transplantés hépatiques. Pour cela, une analyse de 36 profils pharmacocinétiques de 28 patients transplantés hépatiques âgés de 0.4- 18.5 ans a été effectuée. Tous les profils ont été réalisés au Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Sainte-Justine entre janvier 2007 et janvier 2009. Les LSS comportant au maximum 4 mesures de concentration ont été développées en utilisant une analyse de régression multiple. Parmi tous les modèles obtenus, cinq ont été sélectionnés sur la base de critères précis puis validés selon la méthode décrite par Sheiner et Beal.¦Les résultats montrent que ces cinq modèles peuvent prédire l'AUC du Tacrolimus avec une précision cliniquement acceptable de ± 15% alors que la C0 présente la plus faible corrélation avec l'AUC.¦En conclusion, cette étude confirme que la C0 ne permet pas de prédire de manière efficace l'exposition du Tacrolimus dans l'organisme dans notre population de patients pédiatriques contrairement aux LSS analysées qui offrent une méthode pratique et fiable. Par ailleurs, en permettant d'obtenir une estimation précise et simplifiée de l'AUC complète du Tacrolimus chez les patients, ces LSS ouvrent la porte à de futures études prospectives visant à mieux définir l'AUC cible du médicament et à déterminer si le suivi basé sur la mesure de l'AUC est plus efficace et plus sûr que celui basé sur la mesure de la C0.