Decision making processes based on innovation indicators: which implications for technology assessment?

Based on the report for “Project IV” unit of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment. This thesis research has the supervision of António Moniz (FCT-UNL and ITAS-KIT) and Manuel Laranja (ISEG-UTL). Other members of the thesis committee are Stefan Kuhlmann (Twente University), Leonhard Hennen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology-ITAS), Tiago Santos Pereira (Universidade de Coimbra/CES) and Cristina Sousa (FCT-UNL).

Decision-making process in radiology: the magnetic resonance example in the TA context

Based on the report for “Project IV” unit of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment (Doctoral Conference) at Universidade Nova de Lisboa (December 2011). This thesis research has the supervision of António Moniz (FCT-UNL and ITAS-KIT) and Michael Decker (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology-ITAS). Other members of the thesis committee are Carlos Alberto da Silva (University of Évora), José Maria de Albuquerque (Institute of Welding and Quality), Lotte Steuten (University of Twente), Mário Forjaz Secca (FCT-UNL) and Nelson Chibeles Martins (FCT-UNL).

Lean management implementation: a decision making framework

Submitted to the graduate faculty Universidade Nova de Lisboa – Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Industrial Engineering

An ANP model to support decision-making in a Portuguese pharmaceutical supply chain

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Referenda outcomes and the influence of polls: A social network feedback process

This paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum.

UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience

Carbon prices. Dynamic analysis of European and Californian markets

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Alterações Climáticas e Políticas de Desenvolvimento Sustentável

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Guidelines on how to assess the validity of results presented in subgroup analysis of clinical trials

In observational studies, identification of associations within particular subgroups is the usual method of investigation. As an exploratory method, it is the bread and butter of epidemiological research. Nearly everything that has been learned in epidemiology has been derived from the analysis of subgroups. In a randomized clinical trial, the entire purpose is the comparison of the test subjects and the controls, and when there is particular interest in the results of treatment in a certain section of trial participants, a subgroup analysis is performed. These subgroups are examined to see if they are liable to a greater benefit or risk from treatment. Thus, analyzing patient subsets is a natural part of the process of improving therapeutic knowledge through clinical trials. Nevertheless, the reliability of subgroup analysis can often be poor because of problems of multiplicity and limitations in the numbers of patients studied. The naive interpretation of the results of such examinations is a cause of great confusion in the therapeutic literature. We emphasize the need for readers to be aware that inferences based on comparisons between subgroups in randomized clinical trials should be approached more cautiously than those based on the main comparison. That is, subgroup analysis results derived from a sound clinical trial are not necessarily valid; one must not jump to conclusions and accept the validity of subgroup analysis results without an appropriate judgment.

Safety classification using GIS in decision-making process to define priority road interventions

Given the current economic situation of the Portuguese municipalities, it is necessary to identify the priority investments in order to achieve a more efficient financial management. The classification of the road network of the municipality according to the occurrence of traffic accidents is fundamental to set priorities for road interventions. This paper presents a model for road network classification based on traffic accidents integrated in a geographic information system. Its practical application was developed through a case study in the municipality of Barcelos. An equation was defined to obtain a road safety index through the combination of the following indicators: severity, property damage only and accident costs. In addition to the road network classification, the application of the model allows to analyze the spatial coverage of accidents in order to determine the centrality and dispersion of the locations with the highest incidence of road accidents. This analysis can be further refined according to the nature of the accidents namely in collision, runoff and pedestrian crashes.

The importance of risk assessment in the context of investment project management: a case study

Risk management is an important component of project management. Nevertheless, such process begins with risk assessment and evaluation. In this research project, a detailed analysis of the methodologies used to treat risks in investment projects adopted by the Banco da Amazonia S.A. was made. Investment projects submitted to the FNO (Constitutional Fund for Financing the North) during 2011 and 2012 were considered for that purpose. It was found that the evaluators of this credit institution use multiple indicators for risk assessment which assume a central role in terms of decision-making and contribute for the approval or the rejection of the submitted projects; namely, the proven ability to pay, the financial records of project promotors, several financial restrictions, level of equity, level of financial indebtedness, evidence of the existence of a consumer market, the proven experience of the partners/owners in the business, environmental aspects, etc. Furthermore, the bank has technological systems to support the risk assessment process, an internal communication system and a unique system for the management of operational risk.

Validity of the Brazilian Portuguese version of the bipolar spectrum diagnostic scale

OBJECTIVE: Bipolar spectrum disorders (BSDs) are prevalent and frequently unrecognized and undertreated. This report describes the development and validation of the Brazilian version of the bipolar spectrum diagnostic scale (B-BSDS), a screening instrument for bipolar disorders, in an adult psychiatric population. METHOD: 114 consecutive patients attending an outpatient psychiatric clinic completed the B-BSDS. A research psychiatrist, blind to the B-BSDS scores, interviewed patients by means of a modified version of the mood module of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV ("gold standard"). Subthreshold bipolar disorders were defined as recurrent hypomania without a major depressive episode or with fewer symptoms than those required for threshold hypomania. RESULTS: The internal consistency of the B-BSDS evaluated with Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.89 (95% CI; 0.86-0.91). On the basis of the modified SCID, 70 patients (61.4%) of the sample received a diagnosis of BSDs. A B-BSDS screening score of 16 or more items yielded: sensitivity of 0.79 (95% CI; 0.72-0.85), specificity of 0.77 (95% CI; 0.70-0.83), a positive predictive value of 0.85 (95% CI; 0.78-0.91) and a negative predictive value of 0.70 (95% CI; 0.63-0.75). CONCLUSION: The present data demonstrate that the B-BSDS is a valid instrument for the screening of BSDs.

Reliability and convergent validity of the Childhood Anxiety Sensitivity Index in children and adolescents

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and the convergent validity of the Children Anxiety Sensitivity Index (CASI) with DSM-IV anxiety disorder symptoms, by comparison with the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED), in a community sample of Brazilian children and adolescents. METHODS: Children and adolescents from five schools were selected from a larger study that aimed to assess different aspects of childhood anxiety disorders. All participants completed the CASI and the SCARED. RESULTS: This study supported the reliability of the CASI total score. Girls reported higher total anxiety sensitivity scores than boys and there were no differences in total anxiety sensitivity scores between children and adolescents. This study showed moderate to high correlations between the CASI scores with SCARED scores, all correlations coefficients being positive and significant. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate an appropriate reliability and evidence of convergent validity in the CASI in a sample of Brazilian children and adolescents.

Quality of Life on Arterial Hypertension: Validity of Known Groups of MINICHAL

Introductions: In the care of hypertension, it is important that health professionals possess available tools that allow evaluating the impairment of the health-related quality of life, according to the severity of hypertension and the risk for cardiovascular events. Among the instruments developed for the assessment of health-related quality of life, there is the Mini-Cuestionario of Calidad de Vida en la Hipertensión Arterial (MINICHAL) recently adapted to the Brazilian culture. Objective: To estimate the validity of known groups of the Brazilian version of the MINICHAL regarding the classification of risk for cardiovascular events, symptoms, severity of dyspnea and target-organ damage. Methods: Data of 200 hypertensive outpatients concerning sociodemographic and clinical information and health-related quality of life were gathered by consulting the medical charts and the application of the Brazilian version of MINICHAL. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare health-related quality of life in relation to symptoms and target-organ damage. The Kruskal-Wallis test and ANOVA with ranks transformation were used to compare health-related quality of life in relation to the classification of risk for cardiovascular events and intensity of dyspnea, respectively. Results: The MINICHAL was able to discriminate health-related quality of life in relation to symptoms and kidney damage, but did not discriminate health-related quality of life in relation to the classification of risk for cardiovascular events. Conclusion: The Brazilian version of the MINICHAL is a questionnaire capable of discriminating differences on the health‑related quality of life regarding dyspnea, chest pain, palpitation, lipothymy, cephalea and renal damage.