A comparison of Markov and generalized linear models of hospital mortality

This paper reports a comparison of three modeling strategies for the analysis of hospital mortality in a sample of general medicine inpatients in a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Logistic regression, a Markov chain model, and longitudinal logistic regression were evaluated on predictive performance as measured by the c-index and on accuracy of expected numbers of deaths compared to observed. The logistic regression used patient information collected at admission; the Markov model was comprised of two absorbing states for discharge and death and three transient states reflecting increasing severity of illness as measured by laboratory data collected during the hospital stay; longitudinal regression employed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to model covariance structure for the repeated binary outcome. Results showed that the logistic regression predicted hospital mortality as well as the alternative methods but was limited in scope of application. The Markov chain provides insights into how day to day changes of illness severity lead to discharge or death. The longitudinal logistic regression showed that increasing illness trajectory is associated with hospital mortality. The conclusion is reached that for standard applications in modeling hospital mortality, logistic regression is adequate, but for new challenges facing health services research today, alternative methods are equally predictive, practical, and can provide new insights. ^

Evaluation of the accuracy of multilevel analysis parameter estimates for intra-cluster correlation in correlated binary data

Many studies in biostatistics deal with binary data. Some of these studies involve correlated observations, which can complicate the analysis of the resulting data. Studies of this kind typically arise when a high degree of commonality exists between test subjects. If there exists a natural hierarchy in the data, multilevel analysis is an appropriate tool for the analysis. Two examples are the measurements on identical twins, or the study of symmetrical organs or appendages such as in the case of ophthalmic studies. Although this type of matching appears ideal for the purposes of comparison, analysis of the resulting data while ignoring the effect of intra-cluster correlation has been shown to produce biased results.^ This paper will explore the use of multilevel modeling of simulated binary data with predetermined levels of correlation. Data will be generated using the Beta-Binomial method with varying degrees of correlation between the lower level observations. The data will be analyzed using the multilevel software package MlwiN (Woodhouse, et al, 1995). Comparisons between the specified intra-cluster correlation of these data and the estimated correlations, using multilevel analysis, will be used to examine the accuracy of this technique in analyzing this type of data. ^

Quantitative Myocardial Contrast Echocardiography during Pharmacological Stress for Diagnosis of Coronary Artery Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

AIMS: We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the accuracy of quantitative stress myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) in coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Database search was performed through January 2008. We included studies evaluating accuracy of quantitative stress MCE for detection of CAD compared with coronary angiography or single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and measuring reserve parameters of A, beta, and Abeta. Data from studies were verified and supplemented by the authors of each study. Using random effects meta-analysis, we estimated weighted mean difference (WMD), likelihood ratios (LRs), diagnostic odds ratios (DORs), and summary area under curve (AUC), all with 95% confidence interval (CI). Of 1443 studies, 13 including 627 patients (age range, 38-75 years) and comparing MCE with angiography (n = 10), SPECT (n = 1), or both (n = 2) were eligible. WMD (95% CI) were significantly less in CAD group than no-CAD group: 0.12 (0.06-0.18) (P < 0.001), 1.38 (1.28-1.52) (P < 0.001), and 1.47 (1.18-1.76) (P < 0.001) for A, beta, and Abeta reserves, respectively. Pooled LRs for positive test were 1.33 (1.13-1.57), 3.76 (2.43-5.80), and 3.64 (2.87-4.78) and LRs for negative test were 0.68 (0.55-0.83), 0.30 (0.24-0.38), and 0.27 (0.22-0.34) for A, beta, and Abeta reserves, respectively. Pooled DORs were 2.09 (1.42-3.07), 15.11 (7.90-28.91), and 14.73 (9.61-22.57) and AUCs were 0.637 (0.594-0.677), 0.851 (0.828-0.872), and 0.859 (0.842-0.750) for A, beta, and Abeta reserves, respectively. CONCLUSION: Evidence supports the use of quantitative MCE as a non-invasive test for detection of CAD. Standardizing MCE quantification analysis and adherence to reporting standards for diagnostic tests could enhance the quality of evidence in this field.

High-Resolution Ice Cores from US ITASE (West Antarctica): Development and Validation of Chronologies and Determination of Precision and Accuracy

Shallow ice cores were obtained from widely distributed sites across the West Antarctic ice sheet, as part of the United States portion of the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (US ITASE) program. The US ITASE cores have been dated by annual-layer counting, primarily through the identification of summer peaks in non-sea-salt sulfate (nssSO(4)(2-)) concentration. Absolute dating accuracy of better than 2 years and relative dating accuracy better than 1 year is demonstrated by the identification of multiple volcanic marker horizons in each of the cores, Tambora, Indonesia (1815), being the most prominent. Independent validation is provided by the tracing of isochronal layers from site to site using high-frequency ice-penetrating radar observations, and by the timing of mid-winter warming events in stable-isotope ratios, which demonstrate significantly better than 1 year accuracy in the last 20 years. Dating precision to 1 month is demonstrated by the occurrence of summer nitrate peaks and stable-isotope ratios in phase with nssSO(4)(2-), and winter-time sea-salt peaks out of phase, with phase variation of < 1 month. Dating precision and accuracy are uniform with depth, for at least the last 100 years.

The accuracy of self-reported medical history: A preliminary analysis of the promise of internet-based research in Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Internet-based surveys provide a potentially important tool for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) research. The advantages include low cost, large numbers of participants, rapid study completion and less extensive infrastructure than traditional methods. The aim was to determine the accuracy of patient self-reporting in internet-based IBD research and identify predictors of greater reliability. METHODS: 197 patients from a tertiary care center answered an online survey concerning personal medical history and an evaluation of disease specific knowledge. Self-reported medical details were compared with data abstracted from medical records. Agreement was assessed by kappa (κ) statistics. RESULTS: Participants responded correctly with excellent agreement (κ=0.96-0.97) on subtype of IBD and history of surgery. The agreement was also excellent for colectomy (κ=0.88) and small bowel resection (κ=0.91), moderate for abscesses and fistulas (κ=0.60 and 0.63), but poor regarding partial colectomy (κ=0.39). Time since last colonoscopy was self-reported with better agreement (κ=0.84) than disease activity. For disease location/extent, moderate agreements at κ=69% and 64% were observed for patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, respectively. Subjects who scored higher than the average in the IBD knowledge assessment were significantly more accurate about disease location than their complementary group (74% vs. 59%, p=0.02). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that IBD patients accurately report their medical history regarding type of disease and surgical procedures. More detailed medical information is less reliably reported. Disease knowledge assessment may help in identifying the most accurate individuals and could therefore serve as validity criteria. Internet-based surveys are feasible with high reliability about basic disease features only. However, the participants in this study were engaged at a tertiary center, which potentially leads to a bias and compromises generalization to an unfiltered patient group.

Between anxiety and hope: the experiences of women with vulval intraepithelial neoplasia during their illness trajectory - a qualitative approach

The vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) is a rare chronic skin condition that may progress to an invasive carcinoma of the vulva. Major issues affecting women's health were occurring symptoms, negative influences on sexuality, uncertainty concerning the illness progression and changes in the body image. Despite this, there is little known about the lived experiences of the illness trajectory. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe the experiences of women with VIN during the illness trajectory. In a secondary data analysis of the foregoing qualitative study we analysed eight narrative interviews with women with VIN by using thematic analysis in combination with critical hermeneutics. Central for these women during their course of illness was a sense of "Hope and Fear". This constitutive pattern reflects the fear of recurrence but also the trust in healing. The eight narratives showed women's experiences during their course of illness occurred in five phases: "there is something unknown"; "one knows, what IT is"; "IT is treated and should heal"; "IT has effects on daily life"; "meanwhile it works". Women's experiences were particularly influenced by the feeling of "embarrassment" and by "dealing with professionals". Current care seems to lack adequate support for women with VIN to manage these phases. We suggest, based on our study and the international literature, that new models of counselling and providing information need to be developed and evaluated.

Improving accuracy and precision of ice core δD(CH4) analyses using methane pre-pyrolysis and hydrogen post-pyrolysis trapping and subsequent chromatographic separation

Firn and polar ice cores offer the only direct palaeoatmospheric archive. Analyses of past greenhouse gas concentrations and their isotopic compositions in air bubbles in the ice can help to constrain changes in global biogeochemical cycles in the past. For the analysis of the hydrogen isotopic composition of methane (δD(CH4) or δ2H(CH4)) 0.5 to 1.5 kg of ice was hitherto used. Here we present a method to improve precision and reduce the sample amount for δD(CH4) measurements in (ice core) air. Pre-concentrated methane is focused in front of a high temperature oven (pre-pyrolysis trapping), and molecular hydrogen formed by pyrolysis is trapped afterwards (post-pyrolysis trapping), both on a carbon-PLOT capillary at −196 °C. Argon, oxygen, nitrogen, carbon monoxide, unpyrolysed methane and krypton are trapped together with H2 and must be separated using a second short, cooled chromatographic column to ensure accurate results. Pre- and post-pyrolysis trapping largely removes the isotopic fractionation induced during chromatographic separation and results in a narrow peak in the mass spectrometer. Air standards can be measured with a precision better than 1‰. For polar ice samples from glacial periods, we estimate a precision of 2.3‰ for 350 g of ice (or roughly 30 mL – at standard temperature and pressure (STP) – of air) with 350 ppb of methane. This corresponds to recent tropospheric air samples (about 1900 ppb CH4) of about 6 mL (STP) or about 500 pmol of pure CH4.

Accuracy of the withdrawal reflex for localization of the site of cervical disk herniation in dogs: 35 cases (2004-2007)

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the accuracy of neurologic examination versus magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in localization of cervical disk herniation and evaluate the usefulness of withdrawal reflex testing in dogs. DESIGN Retrospective case series. ANIMALS 35 client-owned dogs with a single-level cervical disk herniation as determined via MRI. PROCEDURES 1 of 2 board-certified neurologists performed a complete neurologic examination in each dog. Clinical signs of a cervical lesion included evidence of neck pain and tetraparesis. The withdrawal reflex was used for neuroanatomic localization (C1-C5 or C6-T2). Agreement between results of neurologic and MRI examinations was determined. RESULTS Agreement between neurologic and MRI diagnoses was 65.8%. In 11 dogs in which the lesion was clinically localized to the C6-T2 segment on the basis of a decreased withdrawal reflex in the forelimbs, MRI revealed an isolated C1-C5 disk lesion. In 1 dog, in which the lesion was suspected to be at the C1-C5 level, MRI revealed a C6-T2 lesion. Cranial cervical lesions were significantly associated with an incorrect neurologic diagnosis regarding site of the lesion. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results suggested that the withdrawal reflex in dogs with cervical disk herniation is not reliable for determining the affected site and that a decreased withdrawal reflex does not always indicate a lesion from C6 to T2.

SwissScoring--a nationwide survey of NEMS assessing practices and its accuracy.

BACKGROUND The nine equivalents of nursing manpower use score (NEMS) is used to evaluate critical care nursing workload and occasionally to define hospital reimbursements. Little is known about the caregivers' accuracy in scoring, about factors affecting this accuracy and how validity of scoring is assured. METHODS Accuracy in NEMS scoring of Swiss critical care nurses was assessed using case vignettes. An online survey was performed to assess training and quality control of NEMS scoring and to collect structural and organizational data of participating intensive care units (ICUs). Aggregated structural and procedural data of the Swiss ICU Minimal Data Set were used for matching. RESULTS Nursing staff from 64 (82%) of the 78 certified adult ICUs participated in this survey. Training and quality control of scoring shows large variability between ICUs. A total of 1378 nurses scored one out of 20 case vignettes: accuracy ranged from 63.7% (intravenous medications) to 99.1% (basic monitoring). Erroneous scoring (8.7% of all items) was more frequent than omitted scoring (3.2%). Mean NEMS per case was 28.0 ± 11.8 points (reference score: 25.7 ± 14.2 points). Mean bias was 2.8 points (95% confidence interval: 1.0-4.7); scores below 37.1 points were generally overestimated. Data from units with a greater nursing management staff showed a higher bias. CONCLUSION Overall, nurses assess the NEMS score within a clinically acceptable range. Lower scores are generally overestimated. Inaccurate assessment was associated with a greater size of the nursing management staff. Swiss head nurses consider themselves motivated to assure appropriate scoring and its validation.

Reproducibility and accuracy of linear measurements on dental models derived from cone-beam computed tomography compared with digital dental casts.

INTRODUCTION The aim of this study was to determine the reproducibility and accuracy of linear measurements on 2 types of dental models derived from cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans: CBCT images, and Anatomodels (InVivoDental, San Jose, Calif); these were compared with digital models generated from dental impressions (Digimodels; Orthoproof, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands). The Digimodels were used as the reference standard. METHODS The 3 types of digital models were made from 10 subjects. Four examiners repeated 37 linear tooth and arch measurements 10 times. Paired t tests and the intraclass correlation coefficient were performed to determine the reproducibility and accuracy of the measurements. RESULTS The CBCT images showed significantly smaller intraclass correlation coefficient values and larger duplicate measurement errors compared with the corresponding values for Digimodels and Anatomodels. The average difference between measurements on CBCT images and Digimodels ranged from -0.4 to 1.65 mm, with limits of agreement values up to 1.3 mm for crown-width measurements. The average difference between Anatomodels and Digimodels ranged from -0.42 to 0.84 mm with limits of agreement values up to 1.65 mm. CONCLUSIONS Statistically significant differences between measurements on Digimodels and Anatomodels, and between Digimodels and CBCT images, were found. Although the mean differences might be clinically acceptable, the random errors were relatively large compared with corresponding measurements reported in the literature for both Anatomodels and CBCT images, and might be clinically important. Therefore, with the CBCT settings used in this study, measurements made directly on CBCT images and Anatomodels are not as accurate as measurements on Digimodels.

Evaluating the Quality and Accuracy of TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Models at Archaeological Sites in the Cilician Plain, Turkey

Satellite remote sensing provides a powerful instrument for mapping and monitoring traces of historical settlements and infrastructure, not only in distant areas and crisis regions. It helps archaeologists to embed their findings from field surveys into the broader context of the landscape. With the start of the TanDEM-X mission, spatially explicit 3D-information is available to researchers at an unprecedented resolution worldwide. We examined different experimental TanDEM-X digital elevation models (DEM) that were processed from two different imaging modes (Stripmap/High Resolution Spotlight) using the operational alternating bistatic acquisition mode. The quality and accuracy of the experimental DEM products was compared to other available DEM products and a high precision archaeological field survey. The results indicate the potential of TanDEM-X Stripmap (SM) data for mapping surface elements at regional scale. For the alluvial plain of Cilicia, a suspected palaeochannel could be reconstructed. At the local scale, DEM products from TanDEM-X High Resolution Spotlight (HS) mode were processed at 2 m spatial resolution using a merge of two monostatic/bistatic interferograms. The absolute and relative vertical accuracy of the outcome meet the specification of high resolution elevation data (HRE) standards from the National System for Geospatial Intelligence (NSG) at the HRE20 level.

Semiautomatic Cochleostomy Target and Insertion Trajectory Planning for Minimally Invasive Cochlear Implantation

A major component of minimally invasive cochlear implantation is atraumatic scala tympani (ST) placement of the electrode array. This work reports on a semiautomatic planning paradigm that uses anatomical landmarks and cochlear surface models for cochleostomy target and insertion trajectory computation. The method was validated in a human whole head cadaver model (n = 10 ears). Cochleostomy targets were generated from an automated script and used for consecutive planning of a direct cochlear access (DCA) drill trajectory from the mastoid surface to the inner ear. An image-guided robotic system was used to perform both, DCA and cochleostomy drilling. Nine of 10 implanted specimens showed complete ST placement. One case of scala vestibuli insertion occurred due to a registration/drilling error of 0.79 mm. The presented approach indicates that a safe cochleostomy target and insertion trajectory can be planned using conventional clinical imaging modalities, which lack sufficient resolution to identify the basilar membrane.

Methodology for GPS Synchronization Evaluation with High Accuracy

Clock synchronization in the order of nanoseconds is one of the critical factors for time-based localization. Currently used time synchronization methods are developed for the more relaxed needs of network operation. Their usability for positioning should be carefully evaluated. In this paper, we are particularly interested in GPS-based time synchronization. To judge its usability for localization we need a method that can evaluate the achieved time synchronization with nanosecond accuracy. Our method to evaluate the synchronization accuracy is inspired by signal processing algorithms and relies on fine grain time information. The method is able to calculate the clock offset and skew between devices with nanosecond accuracy in real time. It was implemented using software defined radio technology. We demonstrate that GPS-based synchronization suffers from remaining clock offset in the range of a few hundred of nanoseconds but the clock skew is negligible. Finally, we determine a corresponding lower bound on the expected positioning error.