Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Body surface area and body weight predict total liver volume in Western adults.

Computed tomography (CT) is used increasingly to measure liver volume in patients undergoing evaluation for transplantation or resection. This study is designed to determine a formula predicting total liver volume (TLV) based on body surface area (BSA) or body weight in Western adults. TLV was measured in 292 patients from four Western centers. Liver volumes were calculated from helical computed tomographic scans obtained for conditions unrelated to the hepatobiliary system. BSA was calculated based on height and weight. Each center used a different established method of three-dimensional volume reconstruction. Using regression analysis, measurements were compared, and formulas correlating BSA or body weight to TLV were established. A linear regression formula to estimate TLV based on BSA was obtained: TLV = -794.41 + 1,267.28 x BSA (square meters; r(2) = 0.46; P <.0001). A formula based on patient weight also was derived: TLV = 191.80 + 18.51 x weight (kilograms; r(2) = 0.49; P <.0001). The newly derived TLV formula based on BSA was compared with previously reported formulas. The application of a formula obtained from healthy Japanese individuals underestimated TLV. Two formulas derived from autopsy data for Western populations were similar to the newly derived BSA formula, with a slight overestimation of TLV. In conclusion, hepatic three-dimensional volume reconstruction based on helical CT predicts TLV based on BSA or body weight. The new formulas derived from this correlation should contribute to the estimation of TLV before liver transplantation or major hepatic resection.

Selective suppression of cytokine secretion in whole blood cell cultures of patients with colorectal cancer.

We have investigated the secretion of interferon alpha (IFN-alpha), IFN-gamma, interleukin-1alpha (IL-1alpha), IL-1beta, IL-2 and tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) in whole blood cell cultures (WBCCs) of colorectal cancer patients upon mitogen stimulation. Whereas the values for IL-1beta and TNF-alpha remained virtually unchanged in comparison with healthy control subjects, WBCCs of colorectal cancer patients secreted significantly lower amounts of IFN-alpha (P < 0.005), IFN-gamma (P < 0.0001), IL-1alpha (P < 0.0001) and IL-2 (P < 0.05). This reduction correlated with the progression of the disease. The total leucocyte and monocyte population were almost identical in both groups. In contrast, a dramatic depletion of lymphocytes was observed in colorectal cancer patients, which affected both lymphocyte counts (P < 0.0005) and their distribution (P < 0.0001). Our results suggest a selective suppression of cytokines in colorectal cancer patients that is related to tumour burden. Several mechanisms might account for this phenomenon, one of which might be lymphocyte depletion.

How Much Chemotherapy Are Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Receiving at the End of Life?

Background: Advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma (APC) is a chemoresistant cancer with poor prognosis. We evaluated the use of chemotherapy in the last months of life.Methods: Retrospective analysis of patients with APC treated from 1993 to 2010 at the Oncology Institute of Southern Switzerland. Clinical and laboratory parameters starting from 28 days prior to the last administration of chemotherapy were recorded, including ECOG performance status, presence of ascites, haemoglobin (Hb), white blood cell (WBC) count, platelets, total bilirubin, albumin, LDH, C-reactive protein (C-rp) and Ca 19.9.Results: The characteristics of the 231 patients were: males/females 53%/47%; metastatic/locally advanced disease 80%/20%; median age 66 years (range 32−85). Median overall survival calculated from diagnosis was 6.1 months (95% CI: 5.1−7.2); death was due to disease progression in all cases. At last chemotherapy administration, ECOG performance status was 0−1 in 38% and 2−3 in 62%. Fifty-nine percent of pts received first-line chemotherapy only (gemcitabine in 70%; gemcitabine-based doublets or 5FU in 30%), whilst 32%, 8% and 1% had second- (5FU 37%; oxaliplatinbased doublets 57%; phase I trial 6%), third- and fourth-line therapy (single agent or phase I trial), respectively. The interval between last chemotherapy administration and death was <4 weeks in 24%, _4−12 weeks in 47% and >12 weeks in 29%. Table 1 summarizes the proportion of patients treated according to the interval between last chemotherapy and death refered to chemotherapy line. Median survival from last chemotherapy delivery to death was 7.5 weeks (95% CI 6.7−8.4). In univariate analysis, presence of ascites, elevated WBC, total bilirubin, LDH, C-rp and Ca 19.9, and reduced albumin were found to predict shorter survival (p < 0.05 for each). However, none of them was an independent predictor in the multivariate analysis.Conclusions: A significant proportion of patients with APC received chemotherapy in the last months of life. In our study, none of the clinical and laboratory parameters recorded 28 days priorto the last chemotherapy delivery were found to predict survival.

Iowa NAPIS (National Aging Program Information System) Activity Report State Fiscal Year 2004

INAPIS (National Aging Program Information System) Activity Report collects and reports service/performance data and related program management information to the federal and state government. This report shows the number of older Iowans who receive services and the number of units by service category from Title III funding of the Older Americans Act, the Administration on Aging (AoA) and limited state general fund dollars. Additionally, it shows the number of persons served by individual services and total "unduplicated" client count across all services. In other words, if you add the total number of clients from all services it is higher than the actual number of persons served across all services, because some people need and receive more than one service.

Paralysis of ventilated newborn babies does not influence resistance of the total respiratory system.

Paralysis with pancuronium bromide is used in newborn infants to facilitate ventilatory support during respiratory failure. Changes in lung mechanics have been attributed to paralysis. The aim of this study was to examine whether or not paralysis per se has an influence on the passive respiratory mechanics, resistance (Rrs) and compliance (Crs) of the respiratory system in newborn infants. In 30 infants with acute respiratory failure, Rrs was measured during paralysis with pancuronium bromide and after stopping pancuronium bromide (group A). Rrs was also measured in an additional 10 ventilated infants in a reversed fashion (group B): Rrs was measured first in nonparalysed infants and then they were paralysed, mainly for diagnostic procedures, and the Rrs measurement repeated. As Rrs is highly dependent on lung volume, several parameters, that depend directly on lung volume were recorded: inspiratory oxygen fraction (FI,O2), arterial oxygen tension/alveolar oxygen tension (a/A) ratio and volume above functional residual capacity (FRC). In group A, the Rrs was not different during (0.236+/-0.09 cmH2O x s x mL(-1)) and after (0.237+/-0.07 cmH2O x s x mL(-1)) paralysis. Also, in group B, Rrs did not change (0.207+/-0.046 versus 0.221+/-0.046 cm x s x mL(-1) without versus with pancuronium bromide). FI,O2, a/A ratio and volume above FRC remained constant during paralysis. These data demonstrate that paralysis does not influence the resistance of the total respiratory system in ventilated term and preterm infants when measured at comparable lung volumes.

Total exposure and exposure rate effects for alcohol and smoking and risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis of case-control studies.

Although cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption increase risk for head and neck cancers, there have been few attempts to model risks quantitatively and to formally evaluate cancer site-specific risks. The authors pooled data from 15 case-control studies and modeled the excess odds ratio (EOR) to assess risk by total exposure (pack-years and drink-years) and its modification by exposure rate (cigarettes/day and drinks/day). The smoking analysis included 1,761 laryngeal, 2,453 pharyngeal, and 1,990 oral cavity cancers, and the alcohol analysis included 2,551 laryngeal, 3,693 pharyngeal, and 3,116 oval cavity cancers, with over 8,000 controls. Above 15 cigarettes/day, the EOR/pack-year decreased with increasing cigarettes/day, suggesting that greater cigarettes/day for a shorter duration was less deleterious than fewer cigarettes/day for a longer duration. Estimates of EOR/pack-year were homogeneous across sites, while the effects of cigarettes/day varied, indicating that the greater laryngeal cancer risk derived from differential cigarettes/day effects and not pack-years. EOR/drink-year estimates increased through 10 drinks/day, suggesting that greater drinks/day for a shorter duration was more deleterious than fewer drinks/day for a longer duration. Above 10 drinks/day, data were limited. EOR/drink-year estimates varied by site, while drinks/day effects were homogeneous, indicating that the greater pharyngeal/oral cavity cancer risk with alcohol consumption derived from the differential effects of drink-years and not drinks/day.

Notas sobre a socialidade e a biologia de nidificação de Trypoxylon (Trypoxylon) asuncicola Strand, 1910 (Hymenoptera, Sphecidae)

Twenty-two nests of Trypoxylon asuncicola were sampled in Viçosa, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in January 2000 and the occupants' behavior of three nests was registered in 2h of direct observation. 528 brood cells were excavated (24±13.84 SD cells per nest), 129 were reused cells, some of them for seven times (meconium deposit count). The mean number of total cells, mean number of open and closed cells, parasitism rate and mean number of reused cells per nest were similar between old and new nests. Parasitism rate and cell reuse were associated with the number of building cells in the nest, but nest aggregate in the sampled area may play some role in the parasitism rate. Brachymeria sp. (Chalcididae) was the most important agent of brood mortality (80%). Other parasites were Melittobia sp. (Eulophidae) (17%) and a species of Icheumonidae (3%). The number of closed cells with immature individuals per nest was 4±4.2SD (N=17) and the mean reproductivity per female was 3±2.4SD (N=5). New nests produced more offspring (0 a 35%) than old nests (0 to 11%). Females and males can be found resting in the nest but copula or guarding behavior by the male was not observed. There is some evidence that in the sampled area the switch of nests by females is great and agonistic behavior between a nest owner and a visitor was not evident. Females were larger (3.9±0.4SD mm) than males (3.1±0.3SD mm) (measured as forewing length). The secondary sex ratio was 1.26 (±0.07 SE) in favor of females, which was not different from 1:1 ratio. The majority (97%) of the sampled larvae of T. asuncicola showed diapause. Some (5.1%) 'anomalous cells' were found.

Development and Validation of Decision Rules to Guide Frequency of Monitoring CD4 Cell Count in HIV-1 Infection before Starting Antiretroviral Therapy.

Background: Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.Methodology/Principal Findings: We built up two prediction rules ("Snap-shot rule" for a single sample and "Track-shot rule" for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior >= 5% or < 5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200x10(6)/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold.Conclusions/Significance: Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count > 650 for a threshold of 200, > 900 for 350, or > 1150 for 500x10(6)/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Surgical approach for total hip arthroplasty: direct lateral or posterior?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the risks of prosthesis dislocation, postoperative Trendelenburg gait, and sciatic nerve palsy after a posterior approach compared to a direct lateral approach for adult patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) for primary osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Medline, Embase, CINHAL, and Cochrane databases were searched until August 2003. All published trials comparing posterior and direct lateral surgical approaches to THA in adults with a diagnosis of primary hip osteoarthritis were collected. Retrieved articles were assessed independently for their methodological quality. RESULTS: Four prospective cohort studies involving 241 participants met the inclusion criteria. Regarding dislocation rate, no significant difference between posterior and direct lateral surgical approach was found (relative risk 0.35). The presence of postoperative Trendelenburg gait was not significantly different between surgical approaches. The risk of nerve palsy or injury was significantly higher with the direct lateral approach (relative risk 0.16). However, there were no significant differences when comparing this risk nerve by nerve, in particular for the sciatic nerve. Of the other outcomes considered, only the average range of internal rotation in extension of the hip was significantly higher (weighted mean difference 16 degrees ) in the posterior approach group (mean 35 degrees, SD 13 degrees ) compared to the direct lateral approach (mean 19 degrees, SD 13 degrees ). CONCLUSION: The quality and quantity of information extracted from the trials performed to date are insufficient to make a firm conclusion on the optimum choice of surgical approach for adult patients undergoing primary THA for OA.

NAPIS Report YTD 1st Quarter-4th Quarter 2007

INAPIS Title III Client Service Unit Report - INAPIS (National Aging Program Information System) Service Unit Report collects and reports service/performance data and related program management information to the federal and state government. This report shows the number of older Iowans who receive services and the number of units by service category from Title III funding of the Older Americans Act, the Administration on Aging (AoA) and limited state general fund dollars. Additionally, it shows the number of persons served by individual services and total "unduplicated" client count across all services. In other words, if you add the total number of clients from all services it is higher than the actual number of persons served across all services, because some people need and receive more than one service. (Please note: this is preliminary data, and may be subject to change.)

Title III-E Report YTD 1st Quarter-4th Quarter 2007

Family Caregiver Support Program (Title III-E) - The Administration on Aging (AoA) has determined that for Title III-E, the actual family caregiver is the client, not the older person receiving the services. Iowa NAPIS (National Aging Program Information System) collects and reports Title III-E service/performance data and related program management information to the federal and state government in a format like the other Title III services. The major shift in reporting relates to who is the client. As a result, this Title III-E Client/Service Unit Report shows the number of caregivers who receive services and the number of units by service category from the Title III-E funding of the Older Americans Act, the AoA, and limited state general fund dollars. Additionally, it shows the number of persons served by individual services and total "unduplicated" client count across all services. In other words, if you add the total number of clients (caregivers) from all services, it is higher than the actual number of persons served across all services because some people need and receive more than one service. (Please note: this is preliminary data, and may be subject to change.) Title III-E Report YTD 1st Quarter 2007 Title III-E Report YTD 2nd Quarter 2007 Title III-E Report YTD 3rd Quarter 2007 Title III-E Report YTD 4th Quarter 2007

Population by Age Group and % of Total Population, 2007

Estimates/projections for age 60+ for the state and for its counties and incorporated places. DEA also provides population estimates on poverty, race and ethnicity, and urban and rural for age 60+. This statistical information is obtained from numerous resources, including the State Data Center of Iowa, US Census Bureau, the Administration on Aging, and Iowa State University Census Services. "The Census Bureau uses the latest available estimates as starting points for population projections. Sometimes the user may see both an estimate and a projection available for the same reference date, which may not agree because they were produced at different times. In such cases, estimates are the preferred data." (Source: State Data Center)

Population by Age Group and Perecnt of Total Popluation by County, 2006

The Department of Elder Affairs maintains and provides population and demographic estimates/projections for age 60+ for the state and for its counties and incorporated places. DEA also provides population estimates on poverty, race and ethnicity, and urban and rural for age 60+. This statistical information is obtained from numerous resources, including the State Data Center of Iowa, US Census Bureau, the Administration on Aging, and Iowa State University Census Services. "The Census Bureau uses the latest available estimates as starting points for population projections. Sometimes the user may see both an estimate and a projection available for the same reference date, which may not agree because they were produced at different times. In such cases, estimates are the preferred data." (Source: State Data Center)

Cerebrospinal fluid in the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis: a consensus report.

The Committee of the European Concerted Action for Multiple Sclerosis (Charcot Foundation) organised five workshops to discuss CSF analytical standards in the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. This consensus report from 12 European countries summarises the results of those workshops. It is hoped that neurologists will confer with their colleagues in clinical chemistry to arrange the best possible local practice. The most sensitive method for the detection of oligoclonal immunoglobulin bands is isoelectric focusing. The same amounts of IgG in parallel CSF and serum samples are used and oligoclonal bands are revealed with IgG specific antibody staining. All laboratories performing isoelectric focusing should check their technique at least annually using "blind" standards for the five different CSF and serum patterns. Quantitative measurements of IgG production in the CNS are less sensitive than isoelectric focusing. The preferred method for detection of blood-CSF barrier dysfunction is the albumin quotient. The CSF albumin or total protein concentrations are less satisfactory. These results must be interpreted with reference to the age of the patient and the local method of determination. Cells should be counted. The normal value is no more than 4 cells/microliters. Among evolving optional tests, measurement of the combined local synthesis of antibodies against measles, rubella, and/or varicella zoster could represent a significant advance if it offers higher specificity (not sensitivity) for identifying chronic rather than acute inflammation. Other tests that may have useful correlations with clinical indices include those for oligoclonal free light chains, IgM, IgA, or myelin basic protein concentrations.