The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations

The scientific understanding of the Earth’s climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models (ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven – especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the “emission driven” RCP experiments were performed.

Time is of the essence: a selective review of the fall and rise of brief therapy research

For compelling reasons of equity and the advance of public health, brief psychotherapy has become the dominant format in both practice and research. One consequence of this is the apparent decline of a distinct stream of brief therapy research. However, much of the agenda formerly identified with that research stream is of increasing importance to the field. Time is indeed of the essence in current psychotherapy research. For example, factors conducive to the time efficiency of brief psychodynamic therapy have been described recently. The important question ‘How much therapy is enough?’ has been addressed by studies inspired by the dose-response analysis of Howard and colleagues. The value of ultra-brief interventions has been examined. These issues are considered in a selective review, drawing in particular on the work of the Sheffield/Leeds psychotherapy of depression research group. This research treats the number of treatment sessions as an independent variable, thereby providing a causal analysis of the dose-response relationship over a range from two to 16 sessions, illuminated by a comparative analysis of change processes in treatments of different durations. Its results enable some specification of the extent and nature of incremental benefit derived from additional sessions in the psychotherapy of depression.

Bantu expansion shows that habitat alters the route and pace of human dispersals

Unlike most other biological species, humans can use cultural innovations to occupy a range of environments, raising the intriguing question of whether human migrations move relatively independently of habitat or show preferences for familiar ones. The Bantu expansion that swept out of West Central Africa beginning ∼5,000 y ago is one of the most influential cultural events of its kind, eventually spreading over a vast geographical area a new way of life in which farming played an increasingly important role. We use a new dated phylogeny of ∼400 Bantu languages to show that migrating Bantu-speaking populations did not expand from their ancestral homeland in a “random walk” but, rather, followed emerging savannah corridors, with rainforest habitats repeatedly imposing temporal barriers to movement. When populations did move from savannah into rainforest, rates of migration were slowed, delaying the occupation of the rainforest by on average 300 y, compared with similar migratory movements exclusively within savannah or within rainforest by established rainforest populations. Despite unmatched abilities to produce innovations culturally, unfamiliar habitats significantly alter the route and pace of human dispersals.

Biases in comparative analyses of extinction risk: mind the gap

1. Comparative analyses are used to address the key question of what makes a species more prone to extinction by exploring the links between vulnerability and intrinsic species’ traits and/or extrinsic factors. This approach requires comprehensive species data but information is rarely available for all species of interest. As a result comparative analyses often rely on subsets of relatively few species that are assumed to be representative samples of the overall studied group. 2. Our study challenges this assumption and quantifies the taxonomic, spatial, and data type biases associated with the quantity of data available for 5415 mammalian species using the freely available life-history database PanTHERIA. 3. Moreover, we explore how existing biases influence results of comparative analyses of extinction risk by using subsets of data that attempt to correct for detected biases. In particular, we focus on links between four species’ traits commonly linked to vulnerability (distribution range area, adult body mass, population density and gestation length) and conduct univariate and multivariate analyses to understand how biases affect model predictions. 4. Our results show important biases in data availability with c.22% of mammals completely lacking data. Missing data, which appear to be not missing at random, occur frequently in all traits (14–99% of cases missing). Data availability is explained by intrinsic traits, with larger mammals occupying bigger range areas being the best studied. Importantly, we find that existing biases affect the results of comparative analyses by overestimating the risk of extinction and changing which traits are identified as important predictors. 5. Our results raise concerns over our ability to draw general conclusions regarding what makes a species more prone to extinction. Missing data represent a prevalent problem in comparative analyses, and unfortunately, because data are not missing at random, conventional approaches to fill data gaps, are not valid or present important challenges. These results show the importance of making appropriate inferences from comparative analyses by focusing on the subset of species for which data are available. Ultimately, addressing the data bias problem requires greater investment in data collection and dissemination, as well as the development of methodological approaches to effectively correct existing biases.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. A large variety of models exist today and it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project - FireMIP, an international project to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we summarise the current state-of-the-art in fire regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what essons may be learned from FireMIP.

How much flower-rich habitat is enough for wild pollinators? Answering a key policy question with incomplete knowledge

In 2013, an opportunity arose in England to develop an agri-environment package for wild pollinators, as part of the new Countryside Stewardship scheme launched in 2015. It can be understood as a 'policy window', a rare and time-limited opportunity to change policy, supported by a narrative about pollinator decline and widely supported mitigating actions. An agri-environment package is a bundle of management options that together supply sufficient resources to support a target group of species. This paper documents information that was available at the time to develop such a package for wild pollinators. Four questions needed answering: (1) Which pollinator species should be targeted? (2) Which resources limit these species in farmland? (3) Which management options provide these resources? (4) What area of each option is needed to support populations of the target species? Focussing on wild bees, we provide tentative answers that were used to inform development of the package. There is strong evidence that floral resources can limit wild bee populations, and several sources of evidence identify a set of agri-environment options that provide flowers and other resources for pollinators. The final question could only be answered for floral resources, with a wide range of uncertainty. We show that the areas of some floral resource options in the basic Wild Pollinator and Farmland Wildlife Package (2% flower-rich habitat and 1 km flowering hedgerow), are sufficient to supply a set of six common pollinator species with enough pollen to feed their larvae at lowest estimates, using minimum values for estimated parameters where a range was available. We identify key sources of uncertainty, and stress the importance of keeping the Package flexible, so it can be revised as new evidence emerges about how to achieve the policy aim of supporting pollinators on farmland.

Öppna arenor och slutna rum : några kommunikationskonsulter i Dalarna ser på opinionsbildning

Syftet med denna uppsats är att ta reda på hur lokala kommunikationskonsulter i Falun/Borlänge-regionen ser på opinionsbildning via professionella konsulter. De centrala begrepp som avhandlas är PR, opinionsbildning och lobbying.Den teoretiska ram som omger undersökningen består av de teoribyggen som skapats av Jürgen Habermas, James E. Grunig och Larsåke Larsson. Habermas ställer sig tveksam till den demokratiska nyttan av professionell opinionsbildning, Grunig är mer positiv och Larsson ser både för- och nackdelar med PR-verksamheten. Larssons undersökning av opinionskonsulter från 2005 refereras också.Undersökningen bygger på intervjuer med ett antal kommunikationskonsulter verksamma i Falun och Borlänge. Den lokala marknaden för opinionsbildande uppdrag diskuteras, men också huruvida politiska uppdrag förser byråerna med politisk färg. Huruvida medarbetarnas engagemang är viktigt och hur hög statusen på opinionsbildande uppdrag är ventileras, samt vilka arbetsmetoder som används. Intervjuerna behandlar också förekomsten av lobbying på lokal nivå. Till slut redogör de intervjuade för sin syn på hur opinionsbildning, PR och lobbying via konsulter påverkar demokratin.Under slutsatser diskuteras resultatet i relation till den teoretiska ramen. Att PR- och reklambranscherna alltmer växer samman och att opinionsbildning är ett vanligt inslag i många projekt är ett faktum som också skymtat fram i den teoretiska ramen. Men reklam- och PR-metoder integreras också i politiken, på gott och ont. Följaktligen växer den gråzon som finns mellan de olika typerna av kommunikation och mellan opinionsbildande och icke-opinionsbildande uppdrag. Det försvårar gränsdragning och tydlighet, men skapar nya kreativa möjligheter.Att den ökade användningen av kommunikationskonsulter kanske kan bidra till en orättvis fördel för resursstarka organisationer diskuteras. Ny teknik, t.ex. Internet, kan dock eventuellt vara den motvikt som gör det möjligt även för resurssvaga grupper att höras i det offentliga samtalet. Kommunikation som maktfaktor tas även upp utifrån termer som lobbying och medias dagordningsfunktion.Några aspekter av den outnyttjade potential som PR har ventileras också. PR som metod är en outnyttjad resurs på det lokala planet, något som kan bero både på okunskap hos de lokala kunderna och ett traditionellt arbetssätt hos byråerna. Utifrån intervjusvaren framkommer att både byråerna, deras kunder och media på landsorten skulle gynnas av ett större samarbete.Resultaten av intervjuerna stöder mycket i den teoretiska ramen, medan somligt förkastas. Som sammanfattning kan sägas att opinionsbildning via konsulter kan användas för både gott och ont. Vilket som blir resultatet handlar som oftast om etik, ansvar, öppenhet och professionalitet.ABSTRACTThe primary target for this report is to find out how communication consultants in the region of Falun and Borlänge views the practice of establishing public opinions by using professional public relations consultants. The concepts in focus are PR, the moulding of public opinion and lobbying.The theoretical framework surrounding this report is the writings by Jürgen Habermas, James E. Grunig and Larsåke Larsson. Habermas has doubts as to the democratic use of professional consultants working with public opinions, Grunig has a somewhat more positive approach and Larsson sees both advantages and disadvantages in a democratic sense with the PR industry. Larssons research concerning consultants working with the moulding of public opinions from 2005 is also reviewed. The research is carried out by interviewing some communication consultants working in the Falun /Borlänge- area. The local market for commissions concerning public opinions is discussed, but also if and how political commissions are forcing a political stamp upon the firms engaging in such commissions. The importance of personal commitment in the consultants and the level of prominence commissions concerning public opinion has in the business is discussed, but also which methods is used and preferred. The interviews also deal with the practice of lobbying in the local arena. Finally the participants state their views on how the moulding of public opinion, PR and lobbying effects the democracy. Conclusively, the result is put in relation to the theories earlier mentioned. The public relations market is merging with the advertising business, that is a fact, and establishing public opinion is a common element in a lot of projects. But methods used for advertising and PR are also integrated in the political sphere, for good and bad. That has made the distinction between different kinds of communication harder, thereby enhancing the difficulties of establishing boundaries and achieving clarity. Yet at the same time it facilitates new creative opportunities.The growing use of communication consultants may contribute to unfair advantages for organisations with large economic resources. New technical development though, such as the Internet for example, may prove to simplify communication for groups with lesser economic power. Communication as an aspect of power is being discussed in terms of lobbying and the agenda setting power of media.Some aspects of the unused potential that lies within PR are also in focus in this report. PR as a method is an unused resource in the local market, which can be due to the local clients lack of knowledge but also to the traditional work carried out by the communication firms. The findings of the interviews show that both communication firms, their clients and the local media would benefit from greater cooperation.The theoretical base in this work is mostly supported by the interviews, though a few of the findings does not agree. The moulding of public opinions by professional consultants can be used for both good and bad. What the result will be is, not surprisingly, a question of ethics, responsibility, openness and professionalism.

Solving the Vehicle Routing Problem with Genetic ALgorithm and Simulated Annealing

This Thesis Work will concentrate on a very interesting problem, the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP). In this problem, customers or cities have to be visited and packages have to be transported to each of them, starting from a basis point on the map. The goal is to solve the transportation problem, to be able to deliver the packages-on time for the customers,-enough package for each Customer,-using the available resources- and – of course - to be so effective as it is possible.Although this problem seems to be very easy to solve with a small number of cities or customers, it is not. In this problem the algorithm have to face with several constraints, for example opening hours, package delivery times, truck capacities, etc. This makes this problem a so called Multi Constraint Optimization Problem (MCOP). What’s more, this problem is intractable with current amount of computational power which is available for most of us. As the number of customers grow, the calculations to be done grows exponential fast, because all constraints have to be solved for each customers and it should not be forgotten that the goal is to find a solution, what is best enough, before the time for the calculation is up. This problem is introduced in the first chapter: form its basics, the Traveling Salesman Problem, using some theoretical and mathematical background it is shown, why is it so hard to optimize this problem, and although it is so hard, and there is no best algorithm known for huge number of customers, why is it a worth to deal with it. Just think about a huge transportation company with ten thousands of trucks, millions of customers: how much money could be saved if we would know the optimal path for all our packages.Although there is no best algorithm is known for this kind of optimization problems, we are trying to give an acceptable solution for it in the second and third chapter, where two algorithms are described: the Genetic Algorithm and the Simulated Annealing. Both of them are based on obtaining the processes of nature and material science. These algorithms will hardly ever be able to find the best solution for the problem, but they are able to give a very good solution in special cases within acceptable calculation time.In these chapters (2nd and 3rd) the Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing is described in details, from their basis in the “real world” through their terminology and finally the basic implementation of them. The work will put a stress on the limits of these algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages, and also the comparison of them to each other.Finally, after all of these theories are shown, a simulation will be executed on an artificial environment of the VRP, with both Simulated Annealing and Genetic Algorithm. They will both solve the same problem in the same environment and are going to be compared to each other. The environment and the implementation are also described here, so as the test results obtained.Finally the possible improvements of these algorithms are discussed, and the work will try to answer the “big” question, “Which algorithm is better?”, if this question even exists.

From the Reliable and Unselfish to the Versatile and Independent : - desired qualities in two Swedish curricula

The process in which girls and boys are constructed and construct themselves to pupils takes place in a context where conceptions of “the good pupil” are distinctly manifested in national school documents. In different types of texts concerning school and education, the image of the pupil that society wants to create emerges. Documents from early childhood education up to university level prioritise qualities such as independence, initiative, accountability and freedom to make ones own choices. Qualities or competencies that are preferred during a certain period change as time passes and society develops. The idea of the democratic subject is not the same today as it was 25 years ago. The purpose of this article is to emphasise and compare different desired qualities described in two Swedish national curricula, competencies that pupils in the compulsory school are supposed to develop. The discussion encompasses the political ideas of the pupil during a period of twenty-five years in light of changes in Western societies during the last decades.

Att skola mångfalden – ett nationalistiskt försök : En analys av sverigedemokraternas diskurs om det goda samhället och den goda skolan kopplat till skolansvärdegrund

This essay attempts to examine the discourse of the Sweden democrats in relation to thevalue system of the Swedish national school.To analyse the political texts I use discourse analysis and especially the method and approachconducted by Judith Lee Bacchi. Bacchi focuses on the construction of a problem in variouspolitical discourses. When performing this kind of analysis the main question is (accordingto Bacchi): ”What is the problem represented to be?”I find that the Sweden democrats construct the ”migration politics” and the ”multiculturalpolitics” that is guiding the society as the cause of most problems in our society. To solvethe ”problems” they promote a nationalistic and a cultural racist discourse especiallypinpointing the ”Muslims” as being a problem.Since the Sweden democrats are striving to implement their discourse in the society andschool, and since their discourse already are reproduced by solar students in the classroom,I find it important to examine the essence of their particular discourse and contrast it withthe current value system of the Swedish schools.I don´t find the nationalistic and racist discourse of the Sweden democrats to correspond tothe value system of the Swedish school, mainly due to their strive to create alienation, andby labeling individuals in a reductive manner, instead of using apparent differences as asource for democratic discussions in the classroom

Experimental and computational investigation of the roll forming process

One of the first questions to consider when designing a new roll forming line is the number of forming steps required to produce a profile. The number depends on material properties, the cross-section geometry and tolerance requirements, but the tool designer also wants to minimize the number of forming steps in order to reduce the investment costs for the customer. There are several computer aided engineering systems on the market that can assist the tool designing process. These include more or less simple formulas to predict deformation during forming as well as the number of forming steps. In recent years it has also become possible to use finite element analysis for the design of roll forming processes. The objective of the work presented in this thesis was to answer the following question: How should the roll forming process be designed for complex geometries and/or high strength steels? The work approach included both literature studies as well as experimental and modelling work. The experimental part gave direct insight into the process and was also used to develop and validate models of the process. Starting with simple geometries and standard steels the work progressed to more complex profiles of variable depth and width, made of high strength steels. The results obtained are published in seven papers appended to this thesis. In the first study (see paper 1) a finite element model for investigating the roll forming of a U-profile was built. It was used to investigate the effect on longitudinal peak membrane strain and deformation length when yield strength increases, see paper 2 and 3. The simulations showed that the peak strain decreases whereas the deformation length increases when the yield strength increases. The studies described in paper 4 and 5 measured roll load, roll torque, springback and strain history during the U-profile forming process. The measurement results were used to validate the finite element model in paper 1. The results presented in paper 6 shows that the formability of stainless steel (e.g. AISI 301), that in the cold rolled condition has a large martensite fraction, can be substantially increased by heating the bending zone. The heated area will then become austenitic and ductile before the roll forming. Thanks to the phenomenon of strain induced martensite formation, the steel will regain the martensite content and its strength during the subsequent plastic straining. Finally, a new tooling concept for profiles with variable cross-sections is presented in paper 7. The overall conclusions of the present work are that today, it is possible to successfully develop profiles of complex geometries (3D roll forming) in high strength steels and that finite element simulation can be a useful tool in the design of the roll forming process.

The international marketing strategy of grocery retailers – the strategy of adaptation and standardization

Research question – The research question, that this study attempts to answer, is, what and why grocery retailers, which specifically work with the strategy of standardization, adapt in their marketing mix to the host market. Main adaptations are analyzed with regard to psychic distance in terms of consumer characteristics. Methodology – This study presents a qualitative research design. Secondary data, in-depth interviews and personal observations were used, in order to identify adaptations, which were conducted in a grocery retailer in Germany, which is its home market, and in Sweden, which is considered to be a host market. Findings – The main findings of this research indicate that grocery retailers that specifically work with the strategy of standardization, adopt their core strategy at the host market, in order to keep their economy of scale. However, the standardization strategy may cause negative financial results, which is why adaptations, in order to attract new customers, are required. Conclusively, a mix of both, the adaptation and standardization marketing strategy, has to be utilized.

Entry, re-location and growth in the Swedish wholesale trade industry

Wholesale trade has an intermediate position between manufacturing and retail in the distributional channel. In modern economies, consumers buy few, if any, products directly from manufacture or producer. Instead, it is a wholesaler, who is in direct contact with producers, buying goods in larger quantities and selling them in smaller quantities to retailers. Traditionally, the main function of a wholesaler has been to push goods along the distributional channel from producer to retailer, or other nonend user. However, the function of wholesalers usually goes beyond the process of the physical distribution of goods. Wholesalers also arrange storage, perform market analyses, promote trade or provide technical support to consumers (Riemers 1998). The existence of wholesalers (and other intermediaries) in the distributional channel is based on the effective and efficient performance of distribution services, that are needed by producers and other members of the supply chain. Producers usually do not enjoy the economies of scale that they have in production, when it comes to providing distributional services (Rosenbloom 2007) and this creates a space for wholesalers or other intermediaries. Even though recent developments in the distributional channel indicate that traditional wholesaling activities now also compete with other supply chain organizations, wholesaling still remains an important activity in many economies (Quinn and Sparks, 2007). In 2010, the Swedish wholesale trade sector consisted of approximately 46.000 firms and generated an annual turnover of 1 300 billion SEK (Företagsstatistiken, Statistics Sweden). In terms of turnover, wholesaling accounts for 20% of the gross domestic product and is thereby the third largest industry. This is behind manufacturing and a composite group of firms in other sectors of the service industry but ahead of retailing. This indicates that the wholesale trade sector is an important part of the Swedish economy. The position of wholesaling is further reinforced when measuring productivity growth. Measured in terms of value added per employee, wholesaling experienced the largest productivity growth of all industries in the Swedish economy during the years 2000 through 2010. The fact that wholesale trade is one of the important parts of a modern economy, and the positive development of the Swedish wholesale trade sector in recent decades, leads to several questions related to industry dynamics. The three topics that will be examined in this thesis are firm entry, firm relocation and firm growth. The main question to be answered by this thesis is what factors influence new firm formation, firm relocation and firm growth in the Swedish wholesale trade sector?

Emotioner och värdegrundsarbete : Om lärare, fostran och elever i en mångkulturell skola

This thesis explores aspects of teachers’ obligation to implement and discuss what are referred to in the Swedish national school curricula as “fundamental values” (“värdegrunden” in Swedish). The aim is to describe and analyze dilemmas in interpretations of and teachers’ work with these fundamental values. Four questions are related to this aim. The first addresses difficulties discussed in conversations between seven upper secondary teachers, during nine meetings over the course of one year. In these conversations the teachers reflected upon how to interpret the fundamental values in relation to their daily practice. The second question focuses on the considerable diversity of Swedish schools and examines the work of the teachers through a perspective of intersectionality. The third question concerns how Martha Nussbaum’s theory of emotions as judgments of value could be used for an understanding of the identified dilemmas. The fourth question focuses on ways in which the participating teachers’ discussions may contribute to a wider discussion about possible aims and circumstances of teachers’ work with the fundamental values. Chapter 2 introduces the theoretical framework of the study, Martha Nussbaum’s (2001) ethical thinking on emotions as judgments of value. She argues that emotions have four common cognitive components. They have (1) external objects, and are directed towards these objects. They are (2) intentional, reflecting a person’s particular point of view, his or her special way of beholding the object, and (3) consist of judgments, i.e. views of how things in the world are. According to Nussbaum’s Aristotelian ethics, emotions also (4) mirror the individual’s vision of what a good human life is like, and the vulnerability of it. The concept of eudaimonia, a fulfilled or flourishing life, is central. Chapter 3 focuses on ideas of ethnicity, and on the specific obligation mentioned in the curriculum of counteracting xenophobia and intolerance in a multicultural society. Chapter 4 discusses various aspects of the teachers’ thoughts on religiosity within Swedish society (often depicted as one of most secular in the world) and within the educational system that is non-denominational. Chapter 5 draws attention to different ways in which the teachers view and teach pupils about sexual orientation. Chapter 6 presents conclusions on potential advantages of and challenges involved in Nussbaum’s Aristotelian theory of emotions, when applied to teachers’ views of and practical work with the fundamental values described in the curriculum. One advantage is that emotions may be intellectually scrutinized and morally assessed, on grounds that are known beforehand and discussed in a democratic process. The non-productive division between emotions, on the one hand, and intellectual and moral capabilities, on the other, is transcended by Nussbaum’s theory. An important challenge is to reflect upon when to discuss the cognitive content of pupils’ emotions, and when it is appropriate to state what is right or wrong, and try to influence pupils accordingly. Keywords: Emotions, vulnerability, values education, religious education, teaching, Martha Nussbaum, ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation.

Specialist training in investigative and evidential interviewing: is it having any effect on the behaviour of professionals in the field?

While numerous concerns have been voiced over the past decade regarding the inappropriate question styles of investigative and evidential interviewers, there has been relatively little research, discussion, and critique in relation to the content, structure, and efficacy of existing interviewer training courses. This article provides a brief up-to-date summary of the essential elements of an investigative or evidential interview, followed by a review of research relating to the effectiveness of training programs for forensic interviewers and the factors that are needed to promote the use of appropriate questioning techniques. Finally, this article offers recommendations for future research and for the revision of existing training programs in forensic interviewing.