Delayed decision-making in bistable models

Switching between two modes of operation is a common property of biological systems. In continuous-time differential equation models, this is often realised by bistability, i.e. the existence of two asymptotically stable steadystates. Several biological models are shown to exhibit delayed switching, with a pronounced transient phase, in particular for near-threshold perturbations. This study shows that this delay in switching from one mode to the other in response to a transient input is reflected in local properties of an unstable saddle point, which has a one dimensional unstable manifold with a significantly slower eigenvalue than the stable ones. Thus, the trajectories first approximatively converge to the saddle point, then linger along the saddle's unstable manifold before quickly approaching one of the stable equilibria. ©2010 IEEE.

Motor control is decision-making

© 2012 Elsevier Ltd. Motor behavior may be viewed as a problem of maximizing the utility of movement outcome in the face of sensory, motor and task uncertainty. Viewed in this way, and allowing for the availability of prior knowledge in the form of a probability distribution over possible states of the world, the choice of a movement plan and strategy for motor control becomes an application of statistical decision theory. This point of view has proven successful in recent years in accounting for movement under risk, inferring the loss function used in motor tasks, and explaining motor behavior in a wide variety of circumstances.

Bayesian Learning of Noisy Markov Decision Processes

We consider the inverse reinforcement learning problem, that is, the problem of learning from, and then predicting or mimicking a controller based on state/action data. We propose a statistical model for such data, derived from the structure of a Markov decision process. Adopting a Bayesian approach to inference, we show how latent variables of the model can be estimated, and how predictions about actions can be made, in a unified framework. A new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler is devised for simulation from the posterior distribution. This step includes a parameter expansion step, which is shown to be essential for good convergence properties of the MCMC sampler. As an illustration, the method is applied to learning a human controller.

Inclusive design and the bottom line: How can its value be proven to decision makers?

Designing technology products that embrace the needs and capabilities of heterogeneous users leads not only to increased customer satisfaction and enhanced corporate social responsibility, but also better market penetration. Yet, achieving inclusion in today's pressured and fast-moving markets is not straight-forward. For a time, inaccessible and unusable design was solely seen as the fault of designers and a whole line of research was dedicated to pinpointing their frailties. More recently, it has become progressively more recognised that it is not necessarily designers' lack of awareness, or unwillingness, that results in sub-optimal design, but rather there are multi-faceted organisational factors at play that seldom provide an adequate environment in which inclusive products could be designed. Through literature review, a detailed audit of inclusivity practice in a large global company and ongoing research regarding quantification of cost-effectiveness of inclusive design, this paper discusses the overarching operational problems that prevent organisations from developing optimally inclusive products and offers best-practice principles for the future. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Interactive multi-objective particle swarm optimisation using decision space interaction

The most common approach to decision making in multi-objective optimisation with metaheuristics is a posteriori preference articulation. Increased model complexity and a gradual increase of optimisation problems with three or more objectives have revived an interest in progressively interactive decision making, where a human decision maker interacts with the algorithm at regular intervals. This paper presents an interactive approach to multi-objective particle swarm optimisation (MOPSO) using a novel technique to preference articulation based on decision space interaction and visual preference articulation. The approach is tested on a 2D aerofoil design case study and comparisons are drawn to non-interactive MOPSO. © 2013 IEEE.

Impacts of two biomanipulation fishes stocked in a large pen on the plankton abundance and water quality during a period of phytoplankton seasonal succession

Silver and bighead carp were stocked in a large pen to control the nuisance cyanobacterial blooms in Meiliang Bay of Lake Taihu. Plankton abundance and water quality were investigated about once a week from 9 May to 7 July in 2005. Biomass of both total crustacean zooplankton and cladocerans was significantly suppressed by the predation of pen-cultured fishes. There was a significant negative correlation between the N:P weight ratio and phytoplankton biomass. The size-selective predation by the two carps had no effect on the biomass of green alga Ulothrix sp. It may be attributed to the low fish stocking density (less than 40 g m(-3)) before June. When Microcystis dominated in the water of fish pen, the pen-cultured carps effectively suppressed the biomass of Microcystis, as indicated by the significant decline of chlorophyll a in the >38 mu m fractions of the fish pen. Based on the results of our experiment and previous other studies, we conclude that silver and bighead carp are two efficient biomanipulation tools to control cyanobacterial (Microcystis) blooms in the tropical/subtropical eutrophic waters. Moreover, we should maintain an enough stocking density for an effective control of phytoplankton biomass. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved

Diatom community succession in the recent history of a eutrophic Yunnan Plateau lake, Lake Dianchi, in subtropical China

Fish introduction, eutrophication and disappearance of aquatic vegetation are important disturbances of aquatic ecosystems, especially in plateau lakes, which are generally considered to be very vulnerable. Fish were introduced to Lake Dianchi, a eutrophic plateau lake in southwest China, in the late 1950s and 1970s. After the introduction, invasive fish became the dominant species, and the total fish yield increased. Meanwhile, the trophic level of Lake Dianchi had a tendency to increase in the past decades because of the increases in human activities in the watershed area. In addition, the area of aquatic vegetation decreased from more than 90 to 1.8% of the lake area from the 1950s to 2000. This study investigated the effects of fish introduction, eutrophication and aquatic vegetation on the diatom community of Lake Dianchi by examining the changes of microfossil diatom assemblage and abundance. Results showed that the absolute abundance and diatom assemblages changed after fish were introduced. The endemic species, Cyclotella rohomboideo-elliptica, disappeared with the introduction of fish and increasing trophic levels after 1958. Fragilaria crotonensis entered into the lake with the introduction of fish and gradually thrived in the lake after 1958. Diatom species numbers also decreased gradually from 21 to 9 from the past to present. Epiphytic diatoms disappeared with the decrease of aquatic vegetation after 1985. Our study indicated that eutrophication was the most important process determining diatom abundance, and fish introduction was a secondary process determining diatom abundance, while aquatic vegetation had a more important role in structuring the diatom community in this eutrophic plateau lake.

Plankton Community Succession in Artificial Systems Subjected to Cyanobacterial Blooms Removal using Chitosan-Modified Soils

Using artificial systems to simulate natural lake environments with cyanobacterial blooms, we investigated plankton community succession by polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) fingerprinting and morphological method. With this approach, we explored potential ecological effects of a newly developed cyanobacterial blooms removal method using chitosan-modified soils. Results of PCR-DGGE and morphological identification showed that plankton communities in the four test systems were nearly identical at the beginning of the experiment. After applying the newly developed and standard removal methods, there was a shift in community composition, but neither chemical conditions nor plankton succession were significantly affected by the cyanobacteria removal process. The planted Vallisneria natans successfully recovered after cyanobacteria removal, whereas that in the box without removal process did not. Additionally, canonical correspondence analysis indicated that other than for zooplankton abundance, total phosphorus was the most important environmental predictor of planktonic composition. The present study and others suggest that dealing with cyanobacteria removal using chitosan-modified soils can play an important role in controlling cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophicated freshwater systems.

Controlling factors of spring-summer phytoplankton succession in Lake Taihu (Meiliang Bay, China)

The spring-summer successions of phytoplankton and crustacean zooplankton were examined weekly in Meiliang Bay of the subtropical Lake Taihu in 2004 and 2005. During the study period, the ecosystem of Meiliang Bay was characterized by (i) clearly declined nitrogen compounds (nitrate, TN, and ammonium) and slowly increased phosphorus compounds (TP and SRP), (ii) increased total phytoplankton density and rapid replacement of chlorophyta (mainly Ulothrix) by cyanobacteria (mainly Microcystis), and (iii) rapid replacement of large-sized crustaceans (Daphnia and Moina) by small-sized ones (Bosmina, Limnoithona, and Ceriodaphnia). Results from the CCA and correlation analysis indicate that the spring-summer phytoplankton succession was primarily controlled by abiotic factors. Cyanobacteria were mainly promoted by increased temperature and decreased concentrations of nitrogen compounds. The pure contribution of crustacean was low for the variation of phytoplankton suggesting a weak top-down control by crustacean zooplankton in the subtropical Lake Taihu.

Decision making at the front end of innovation: The hidden influence of knowledge and decision criteria

Decision making at the front end of innovation is critical for the success of companies. This paper presents a method, called decision making based on knowledge (DeBK), which was created to analyze the decision-making process at the front end. The method evaluates the knowledge of project information and the importance of decision criteria, compiling a measure that indicates whether decisions are founded on available knowledge and what criteria are in fact being considered to delineate them. The potential contribution of DeBK is corroborated through two projects that faced decision-making issues at the front end of innovation. © 2014 RADMA and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Motor effort alters changes of mind in sensorimotor decision making.

After committing to an action, a decision-maker can change their mind to revise the action. Such changes of mind can even occur when the stream of information that led to the action is curtailed at movement onset. This is explained by the time delays in sensory processing and motor planning which lead to a component at the end of the sensory stream that can only be processed after initiation. Such post-initiation processing can explain the pattern of changes of mind by asserting an accumulation of additional evidence to a criterion level, termed change-of-mind bound. Here we test the hypothesis that physical effort associated with the movement required to change one's mind affects the level of the change-of-mind bound and the time for post-initiation deliberation. We varied the effort required to change from one choice target to another in a reaching movement by varying the geometry of the choice targets or by applying a force field between the targets. We show that there is a reduction in the frequency of change of mind when the separation of the choice targets would require a larger excursion of the hand from the initial to the opposite choice. The reduction is best explained by an increase in the evidence required for changes of mind and a reduced time period of integration after the initial decision. Thus the criteria to revise an initial choice is sensitive to energetic costs.