Spatial coherence and persistence in annual streamflow in the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Four broad regions of the western United States within which annual streamflows exhibit strong spatial coherence are identified using principal component analysis with a varimax rotation. Geographically, the four regions encompass the Pacific Northwest, Far West-Great Basin, Central Rockies-High Plains, and Northern Great Plains. These regions are really consistent with previously documented, descriptively derived streamflow regimes as well as with general atmospheric circulation and precipitation modes of variation. Collectively, the four regional components account for nearly 63 percent of the total annual variation in western U.S. streamflow. The time history of most principal component patterns exhibit little or no persistence.

The influence of North Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the West [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The annual cycle and non-seasonal variability of streamflow over a network of stations in western North America and Hawaii is studied in terms of atmospheric forcing elements. The phase lag between the annual cycle of streamflow and precipitation varies considerably over this network, as does the persistence of monthly streamflow anomalies. This lag effect appears to be largely a function of the relative amount of snow laid down in a particular basin. In addition to the rather strong annual cycle that exists in mean streamflow and its variance at most of the stations, there is also a distinct annual cycle in the autocorrelation of streamflow anomalies that is related to the interplay between the temperature and precipitation annual cycles; of particular importance is the existence of stored water in the form of a snow pack.

Periodic autoregressive moving average models for the analysis of streamflow [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Streamflow values show definite seasonal patterns in their month-to-month correlation structure. The structure also seems to vary as a function of the type of stream (coastal versus mountain or humid versus arid region). The standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is incapable of reproducing this correlation structure. ... A periodic ARMA time series model is one in which an ARMA model is fitted to each month or season but the parameters of the model are constrained to be periodic according to a Fourier series. This constraint greatly reduces the number of parameters but still leaves the flexibility for matching the seasonally varying correlograms.

Changes in size and age at maturity of the northern stock of Tilefish (Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps) after a period of overfishing

The modern fishery for Tilefish (Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps) developed during the 1970s, offshore of southern New England, in the western North Atlantic Ocean. The population quickly became over exploited, with documented declines in catch rates and changes in demographic traits. In an earlier study, median size at maturity (L50) of males declined from 62.6 to 38.6 cm fork length (FL) and median age at maturity (A50) of males declined from 7.1 to 4.6 years between 1978 and 1982. As part of a cooperative research effort to improve the data-limited Tilefish assessment, we updated maturity parameter estimates through the use of an otolith aging method and macroscopic and microscopic evaluations of gonads. The vital rates for this species have continued to change, particularly for males. By 2008, male L50 and A50 had largely rebounded, to 54.1 cm FL and 5.9 years. Changes in female reproductive schedules were less variable among years, but the smallest L50 and youngest A50 were recorded in 2008. Tilefish are dimorphic, where the largest fish are male, and male spawning success is postulated to be socially mediated. These traits may explain the initial rapid decline and the subsequent rebound in male L50 and A50 and less dramatic effects on females. Other factors that likely contribute to the dynamics of maturity parameter estimates are the relatively short period of overfishing and the amount of time since efforts to rebuild this fishery began, as measured in numbers of generations. This study also confirms the gonochoristic sexual pattern of the northern stock, and it reveals evidence of age truncation and relatively high proportions of immature Tilefish in the recent catch.

Changes of mind in decision-making.

A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on evidence and the expected costs and benefits associated with the outcome. Progress in a variety of fields has led to a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms that evaluate evidence and reach a decision. Several formalisms propose that a representation of noisy evidence is evaluated against a criterion to produce a decision. Without additional evidence, however, these formalisms fail to explain why a decision-maker would change their mind. Here we extend a model, developed to account for both the timing and the accuracy of the initial decision, to explain subsequent changes of mind. Subjects made decisions about a noisy visual stimulus, which they indicated by moving a handle. Although they received no additional information after initiating their movement, their hand trajectories betrayed a change of mind in some trials. We propose that noisy evidence is accumulated over time until it reaches a criterion level, or bound, which determines the initial decision, and that the brain exploits information that is in the processing pipeline when the initial decision is made to subsequently either reverse or reaffirm the initial decision. The model explains both the frequency of changes of mind as well as their dependence on both task difficulty and whether the initial decision was accurate or erroneous. The theoretical and experimental findings advance the understanding of decision-making to the highly flexible and cognitive acts of vacillation and self-correction.