Controling delayed transitions with applications to prevent single species extinctions

A new method is proposed to control delayed transitions towards extinction in single population theoretical models with discrete time undergoing saddle-node bifurcations. The control method takes advantage of the delaying properties of the saddle remnant arising after the bifurcation, and allows to sustain populations indefinitely. Our method, which is shown to work for deterministic and stochastic systems, could generally be applied to avoid transitions tied to one-dimensional maps after saddle-node bifurcations.

On chaos, transient chaos and ghosts in single populations models with allee effects

Density-dependent effects, both positive or negative, can have an important impact on the population dynamics of species by modifying their population per-capita growth rates. An important type of such density-dependent factors is given by the so-called Allee effects, widely studied in theoretical and field population biology. In this study, we analyze two discrete single population models with overcompensating density-dependence and Allee effects due to predator saturation and mating limitation using symbolic dynamics theory. We focus on the scenarios of persistence and bistability, in which the species dynamics can be chaotic. For the chaotic regimes, we compute the topological entropy as well as the Lyapunov exponent under ecological key parameters and different initial conditions. We also provide co-dimension two bifurcation diagrams for both systems computing the periods of the orbits, also characterizing the period-ordering routes toward the boundary crisis responsible for species extinction via transient chaos. Our results show that the topological entropy increases as we approach to the parametric regions involving transient chaos, being maximum when the full shift R(L)(infinity) occurs, and the system enters into the essential extinction regime. Finally, we characterize analytically, using a complex variable approach, and numerically the inverse square-root scaling law arising in the vicinity of a saddle-node bifurcation responsible for the extinction scenario in the two studied models. The results are discussed in the context of species fragility under differential Allee effects. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Charged higgs bosons in single top production at the LHC

We show that a light charged Higgs boson signal via tau(+/-)nu decay can be established at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) also in the case of single top production. This process complements searches for the same signal in the case of charged Higgs bosons emerging from t (t) over bar production. The models accessible include the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) as well a variety of 2-Higgs Doublet Models (2HDMs). High energies and luminosities are however required, thereby restricting interest on this mode to the case of the LHC running at 14TeV with design configuration.

Metop-A generator for single top production via FCNC interactions

We present a generator for single top-quark production via flavour-changing neutral currents. The MEtop event generator allows for Next-to-Leading-Order direct top production pp -> t and Leading-Order production of several other single top processes. A few packages with definite sets of dimension six operators are available. We discuss how to improve the bounds on the effective operators and how well new physics can be probed with each set of independent dimension six operators.

How market power affects the behaviour of a pumped storage hydro unit in the day-ahead electricity market?

The integration of large amounts of wind energy in power systems raises important operation issues such as the balance between power demand and generation. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are seen as one solution for this issue, avoiding the need for wind power curtailments. However, the behavior of a PSH unit might differ considerably when it operates in a liberalized market with some degree of market power. In this regard, a new approach for the optimal daily scheduling of a PSH unit in the day-ahead electricity market was developed and presented in this paper, in which the market power is modeled by a residual inverse demand function with a variable elasticity. The results obtained show that increasing degrees of market power of the PSH unit correspond to decreasing levels of storage and, therefore, the capacity to integrate wind power is considerably reduced under these circumstances.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Single-lap joints of similar and dissimilar adherends bonded with an acrylic adhesive

In this study, the tensile strength of single-lap joints (SLJs) between similar and dissimilar adherends bonded with an acrylic adhesive was evaluated experimentally and numerically. The adherend materials included polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), carbon-epoxy (CFRP), and glass-polyester (GFRP) composites. The following adherend combinations were tested: PE/PE, PE/PP, PE/CFRP, PE/GFRP, PP/PP, CFRP/CFRP, and GFRP/GFRP. One of the objectives of this work was to assess the influence of the adherends stiffness on the strength of the joints since it significantly affects the peel stresses magnitude in the adhesive layer. The experimental results were also used to validate a new mixed-mode cohesive damage model developed to simulate the adhesive layer. Thus, the experimental results were compared with numerical simulations performed in ABAQUS®, including a developed mixed-mode (I+II) cohesive damage model, based on the indirect use of fracture mechanics and implemented within interface finite elements. The cohesive laws present a trapezoidal shape with an increasing stress plateau, to reproduce the behaviour of the ductile adhesive used. A good agreement was found between the experimental and numerical results.

Designing market-based instruments for biodiversity conservation: learning with the Australian experience and evaluating Portugal's potential

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão de Sistemas Ambientais

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Implementation of a new reference values database for semiquantification in123I-FP-CIT brain single emission tomography

Brain dopamine transporters imaging by Single Emission Tomography (SPECT) with 123I-FP-CIT (DaTScanTM) has become an important tool in the diagnosis and evaluation of Parkinson syndromes.This diagnostic method allows the visualization of a portion of the striatum – where healthy pattern resemble two symmetric commas - allowing the evaluation of dopamine presynaptic system, in which dopamine transporters are responsible for dopamine release into the synaptic cleft, and their reabsorption into the nigrostriatal nerve terminals, in order to be stored or degraded. In daily practice for assessment of DaTScan TM, it is common to rely only on visual assessment for diagnosis. However, this process is complex and subjective as it depends on the observer’s experience and it is associated with high variability intra and inter observer. Studies have shown that semiquantification can improve the diagnosis of Parkinson syndromes. For semiquantification, analysis methods of image segmentation using regions of interest (ROI) are necessary. ROIs are drawn, in specific - striatum - and in nonspecific – background – uptake areas. Subsequently, specific binding ratios are calculated. Low adherence of semiquantification for diagnosis of Parkinson syndromes is related, not only with the associated time spent, but also with the need of an adapted database of reference values for the population concerned, as well as, the examination of each service protocol. Studies have concluded, that this process increases the reproducibility of semiquantification. The aim of this investigation was to create and validate a database of healthy controls for Dopamine transporters with DaTScanTM named DBRV. The created database has been adapted to the Nuclear Medicine Department’s protocol, and the population of Infanta Cristina’s Hospital located in Badajoz, Spain.

Work and citizenship: crises and alternatives

Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, 5

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Effect of temperature on the shear strength of aluminium single lap bonded joints for high temperature applications

An experimental and numerical investigation into the shear strength behaviour of adhesive single lap joints (SLJs) was carried out in order to understand the effect of temperature on the joint strength. The adherend material used for the experimental tests was an aluminium alloy in the form of thin sheets, and the adhesive used was a high-strength high temperature epoxy. Tensile tests as a function of temperature were performed and numerical predictions based on the use of a bilinear cohesive damage model were obtained. It is shown that at temperatures below Tg, the lap shear strength of SLJs increased, while at temperatures above Tg, a drastic drop in the lap shear strength was observed. Comparison between the experimental and numerical maximum loads representing the strength of the joints shows a reasonably good agreement.

The use of the boundary element method in the analysis of single lap joints

The most common techniques for stress analysis/strength prediction of adhesive joints involve analytical or numerical methods such as the Finite Element Method (FEM). However, the Boundary Element Method (BEM) is an alternative numerical technique that has been successfully applied for the solution of a wide variety of engineering problems. This work evaluates the applicability of the boundary elem ent code BEASY as a design tool to analyze adhesive joints. The linearity of peak shear and peel stresses with the applied displacement is studied and compared between BEASY and the analytical model of Frostig et al., considering a bonded single-lap joint under tensile loading. The BEM results are also compared with FEM in terms of stress distributions. To evaluate the mesh convergence of BEASY, the influence of the mesh refinement on peak shear and peel stress distributions is assessed. Joint stress predictions are carried out numerically in BEASY and ABAQUS®, and analytically by the models of Volkersen, Goland, and Reissner and Frostig et al. The failure loads for each model are compared with experimental results. The preparation, processing, and mesh creation times are compared for all models. BEASY results presented a good agreement with the conventional methods.