On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theory

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theoryCette thèse est composée de trois essais qui portent sur l'efficacité des évaluations récursives de la distribution du montant total des sinistres d'un portefeuille de polices d'assurance au cours d'un période donnée. Le calcul de sa fonction de probabilité ou de quantités liées à cette distribution apparaît fréquemment dans la plupart des domaines de la pratique actuarielle.C'est le cas notamment pour le calcul du capital de solvabilité en Suisse ou pour modéliser la perte d'une assurance vie au cours d'une année. Le principal problème des évaluations récursives est que la propagation des erreurs provenant de la représentation des nombres réels par l'ordinateur peut être désastreuse. Mais, le gain de temps qu'elles procurent en réduisant le nombre d'opérations arithmétiques est substantiel par rapport à d'autres méthodes.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons certaines propriétés d'un outil informatique performant afin d'optimiser le temps de calcul tout en garantissant une certaine qualité dans les résultats par rapport à la propagation de ces erreurs au cours de l'évaluation.Dans le second essai, nous dérivons des expressions exactes et des bornes pour les erreurs qui se produisent dans les fonctions de distribution cumulatives d'un ordre donné lorsque celles-ci sont évaluées récursivement à partir d'une approximation de la transformée de De Pril associée. Ces fonctions cumulatives permettent de calculer directement certaines quantités essentielles comme les primes stop-loss.Finalement, dans le troisième essai, nous étudions la stabilité des évaluations récursives de ces fonctions cumulatives par rapport à la propagation des erreurs citées ci-dessus et déterminons la précision nécessaire dans la représentation des nombres réels afin de garantir des résultats satisfaisants. Cette précision dépend en grande partie de la transformée de De Pril associée.

Citizens' control and the efficiency of local public services

Està àmpliament acceptat que la descentralització fiscal incrementa el control dels ciutadans sobre els polítics, fomenta el rendiment de comptes i augmenta l¿eficiència. Aquest treball té per objectiu identificar les característiques socio-econòmiques dels ciutadans (votants potencials) que generen un major control sobre els responsables polítics locals provocant, així, un major nivell d'eficiència en un context descentralitzat.També s'analitzen les característiques fiscals dels governs locals que fomenten aquest control i eficiència. L'estudi s'ha aplicat a una mostra de municipis catalans seguint la metodologia convencional basada en l'estimació en dues etapes. A la primera etapa s'estima l'eficiència en que operen els municipis mitjançant la tècnica DEA. La novetat rau en el càlcul d'una nova versió d'indicador global d¿output municipal. En la segona etapa, a través d¿una estimació tipus Tobit (models censurats) i de mètodes bootstrap, es mostra com els factors abans comentats poden influir sobre l¿eficiència. Els resultats suggereixen que la forta presencia de comerciants, jubilats i persones amb dret a vot afavoreixen el control dels ciutadans, el rendiment de comptes i l¿eficiència. Un factor que facilita aquest control, i per tant una major eficiència, és la presència de baixos costos d'oportunitat d'obtenir informació sobre la gestió local dels serveis públics.

Measuring the efficiency in Spanish municipal refuse collection services

The objective of this study is to analyse the technical or productive efficiency ofthe refuse collection services in 75 municipalities located in the Spanish regionof Catalonia. The analysis has been carried out using various techniques. Firstly we have calculated a deterministic parametric frontier, then a stochastic parametric frontier, and finally, various non-parametric approaches (DEA and FDH). Concerning the results, these naturally differ according to the technique used to approach the frontier. Nevertheless, they have an appearance of solidity, at least with regard to the ordinal concordance among the indices of efficiency obtained by the different approaches, as is demonstrated by the statistical tests used. Finally, we have attempted to search for any relation existing between efficiency and the method (public or private) of managing the services. No significant relation was found between the type of management and efficiencyindices

Risque thrombotique sous procréation médicalement assistée [Thrombotic risk in assisted reproductive technology].

Use of assisted reproductive technology (ART) is increasing in many developed countries. Arterial and venous thromboembolic complications are reported during ART with an incidence of 0.1%. The development of these events has been mainly ascribed to the presence of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). Precise mechanisms by which OHSS and exogenous hormonal stimulation used in ART induce thromboembolic events remain unclear. However, vascular endothelial growth factor secreted during OHSS, high estradiol concentrations, and blood hyperviscosity play a major role in inducing a prothrombotic state. Therefore, before planning an ART, individual thromboembolic risk should be assessed and thromboprophylaxis offered to high risk patients. Prophylaxis should be initiated in women who develop moderate-to-severe OHSS.

Systemic and pulmonary vascular dysfunction in children conceived by assisted reproductive technologies.

BACKGROUND: Assisted reproductive technology (ART) involves the manipulation of early embryos at a time when they may be particularly vulnerable to external disturbances. Environmental influences during the embryonic and fetal development influence the individual's susceptibility to cardiovascular disease, raising concerns about the potential consequences of ART on the long-term health of the offspring. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed systemic (flow-mediated dilation of the brachial artery, pulse-wave velocity, and carotid intima-media thickness) and pulmonary (pulmonary artery pressure at high altitude by Doppler echocardiography) vascular function in 65 healthy children born after ART and 57 control children. Flow-mediated dilation of the brachial artery was 25% smaller in ART than in control children (6.7±1.6% versus 8.6±1.7%; P<0.0001), whereas endothelium-independent vasodilation was similar in the 2 groups. Carotid-femoral pulse-wave velocity was significantly (P<0.001) faster and carotid intima-media thickness was significantly (P<0.0001) greater in children conceived by ART than in control children. The systolic pulmonary artery pressure at high altitude (3450 m) was 30% higher (P<0.001) in ART than in control children. Vascular function was normal in children conceived naturally during hormonal stimulation of ovulation and in siblings of ART children who were conceived naturally. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy children conceived by ART display generalized vascular dysfunction. This problem does not appear to be related to parental factors but to the ART procedure itself. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00837642.

Citizens' control and the efficiency of local public services

Està àmpliament acceptat que la descentralització fiscal incrementa el control dels ciutadans sobre els polítics, fomenta el rendiment de comptes i augmenta l¿eficiència. Aquest treball té per objectiu identificar les característiques socio-econòmiques dels ciutadans (votants potencials) que generen un major control sobre els responsables polítics locals provocant, així, un major nivell d'eficiència en un context descentralitzat.També s'analitzen les característiques fiscals dels governs locals que fomenten aquest control i eficiència. L'estudi s'ha aplicat a una mostra de municipis catalans seguint la metodologia convencional basada en l'estimació en dues etapes. A la primera etapa s'estima l'eficiència en que operen els municipis mitjançant la tècnica DEA. La novetat rau en el càlcul d'una nova versió d'indicador global d¿output municipal. En la segona etapa, a través d¿una estimació tipus Tobit (models censurats) i de mètodes bootstrap, es mostra com els factors abans comentats poden influir sobre l¿eficiència. Els resultats suggereixen que la forta presencia de comerciants, jubilats i persones amb dret a vot afavoreixen el control dels ciutadans, el rendiment de comptes i l¿eficiència. Un factor que facilita aquest control, i per tant una major eficiència, és la presència de baixos costos d'oportunitat d'obtenir informació sobre la gestió local dels serveis públics.

Male body size and breeding tubercles are both linked to intra-sexual dominance and reproductive success in the minnow

Male dominance hierarchies are usually linked to relative body size and to weapon size, that is, to determinants of fighting ability. Secondary sexual characters that are not directly used as weapons could still be linked to dominance if they reveal determination or overall health and vigour and hence, indirectly, fighting ability. We studied the mating behaviour of the minnow, Phoxinus phoxinus, a cyprinid fish in which males develop breeding tubercles during the spawning season. The function of these breeding tubercles is still not clear. Using microsatellite markers, we determined male reproductive success under controlled conditions. The minnows were territorial and quickly established a dominance hierarchy at the beginning of the spawning season. Dominance was strongly and positively linked to fertilization success. Although body size and number of breeding tubercles were not significantly correlated in our sample, both large males and males with many breeding tubercles were more dominant and achieved higher fertilization success than small males or males with few tubercles. We found multimale fertilization in most clutches, suggesting that sperm competition is important in this species. Females showed behaviour that may be linked to spawning decision, that is, male dominance might not be the only determinant of male reproductive success in minnows

Measuring the efficiency in Spanish municipal refuse collection services

The objective of this study is to analyse the technical or productive efficiency ofthe refuse collection services in 75 municipalities located in the Spanish regionof Catalonia. The analysis has been carried out using various techniques. Firstly we have calculated a deterministic parametric frontier, then a stochastic parametric frontier, and finally, various non-parametric approaches (DEA and FDH). Concerning the results, these naturally differ according to the technique used to approach the frontier. Nevertheless, they have an appearance of solidity, at least with regard to the ordinal concordance among the indices of efficiency obtained by the different approaches, as is demonstrated by the statistical tests used. Finally, we have attempted to search for any relation existing between efficiency and the method (public or private) of managing the services. No significant relation was found between the type of management and efficiencyindices

Diversity and efficiency of bradyrhizobium strains isolated from soil samples collected from around sesbania virgata roots using cowpea as trap species

The genetic diversity of ten Bradyrhizobium strains was evaluated for tolerance to high temperatures, to different salinity levels and for the efficiency of symbiosis with cowpea plants (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.). Eight of these strains were isolated from nodules that appeared on cowpea after inoculation with suspensions of soil sampled from around the root system of Sesbania virgata (wand riverhemp) in ecosystems of South Minas Gerais. The other two strains used in our analyses as references, were from the Amazon and are currently recommended as cowpea inoculants. Genetic diversity was analyzed by amplifying repetitive DNA elements with the BOX primer, revealing high genetic diversity with each strain presenting a unique band profile. Leonard jar assays showed that the strains UFLA 03-30 and UFLA 03-38 had the highest N2-fixing potentials in symbiosis with cowpea. These strains had more shoot and nodule dry matter, more shoot N accumulation, and a higher relative efficiency than the strains recommended as inoculants. All strains grew in media of pH levels ranging from 4.0 to 9.0. The strains with the highest N2-fixing efficiencies in symbiosis with cowpea were also tolerant to the greatest number of antibiotics. However, these strains also had the lowest tolerance to high salt concentrations. All strains, with the exceptions of UFLA 03-84 and UFLA 03-37, tolerated temperatures of up to 40 ºC. The genetic and phenotypic characteristics of the eight strains isolated from soils of the same region were highly variable, as well as their symbiotic efficiencies, despite their common origin. This variability highlights the importance of including these tests in the selection of cowpea inoculant strains.

Rhizosphere properties of maize genotypes with contrasting phosphorus efficiency

An experiment was conducted in a growth chamber to evaluate characteristics of the rhizosphere of maize genotypes contrasting in P-use efficiency, by determining length and density of root hairs, the rhizosphere pH and the functional diversity of rhizosphere bacteria. A sample of a Red Oxisol was limed and fertilized with N, K and micronutrients. In the treatment with the highest P level, 174 mg kg-1 P was added. Each experimental unit corresponded to a PVC rhizobox filled with 2.2 dm-3 soil. The experiment was completely randomized with three replications in a 5 x 2 factorial design, corresponding to five genotypes (H1, H2 and H3 = P-efficient hybrids, H4 and H5 = P-inefficient hybrids) and two P levels (low = 3 mg dm-3, high = 29 mg dm-3). It was found that 18 days after transplanting, the nodal roots of the hybrids H3 and H2 had the longest root hairs. In general, the pH in the rhizosphere of the different genotypes was higher than in non-rhizosphere soil, irrespective of the P level. The pH was higher in the rhizosphere of lateral than of nodal roots. At low P levels, the pH variation of the hybrids H2, H4 and H5 was greater in rhizospheric than in non-rhizospheric soil. The functional microbial activity in the rhizosphere of the hybrids H3 and H5 was highest. At low soil P levels, the indices of microbial functional diversity were also higher. The microbial metabolic profile in the rhizosphere of hybrids H1, H2, H3, and H5 remained unaltered when the plants were grown at low P. The variations in the rhizosphere properties could not be related to patterns of P-use efficiency in the tested genotypes.

Nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency, recovery and leaching of an alexandergrass pasture

Nitrogen usually determines the productive potential of forage crops, although it is highly unstable in the environment. Studies on recovery rates and use efficiency are important for more reliable fertilizer recommendations to reduce costs and avoid environmental pollution. The purpose of this study was to evaluate N use efficiency and recovery rate of Alexandergrass pasture (Brachiaria - Syn. Urochloa plantaginea) as well as N-NO3- and N-NH4+ soil concentrations using different levels of N fertilization under two grazing intensities. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design in a factorial scheme with three replications. Treatments consisted of three N rates (0, 200 and 400 kg ha-1 N) and two grazing intensities termed low mass (LM; forage mass of 2,000 kg ha-1 of DM) and high mass (HM; forage mass of 3,600 kg ha-1 of DM) under continuous stocking and variable stocking rates. Results of N fertilization with 200 kg ha-1 were better than with 400 kg ha-1 N. There was a significant effect of N rates on soil N-NO3-concentration with higher levels in the first layer of the soil profile in the treatment with 400 kg ha-1 N. Grazing intensity also affected soil N-NO3- concentration, by increasing the levels under the higher stocking rate (lower forage mass).

Male reproductive success: paternity contribution to queens and workers in Formica ants

The relative number of workers and female sexuals fathered by two males mated with a queen were directly assessed using microsatellite and allozyme markers in field colonies of the ants Formica exsecta and F. truncorum. In both species one of the two males consistently fathered more offspring than the other. There was, however, no evidence that one male might be particularly successful in fathering a disproportionally high proportion of female sexuals relative to the proportion of workers. Moreover, in F. exsecta, the proportions of worker pupae and worker adults fathered by each male did not differ significantly between cohorts. The most likely explanation for this pattern is that females store different amounts of sperm from the two males they mated with.

Essays on the measurement of school efficiency

Measuring school efficiency is a challenging task. First, a performance measurement technique has to be selected. Within Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), one such technique, alternative models have been developed in order to deal with environmental variables. The majority of these models lead to diverging results. Second, the choice of input and output variables to be included in the efficiency analysis is often dictated by data availability. The choice of the variables remains an issue even when data is available. As a result, the choice of technique, model and variables is probably, and ultimately, a political judgement. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods can help the decision makers to select the most suitable model. The number of selection criteria should remain parsimonious and not be oriented towards the results of the models in order to avoid opportunistic behaviour. The selection criteria should also be backed by the literature or by an expert group. Once the most suitable model is identified, the principle of permanence of methods should be applied in order to avoid a change of practices over time. Within DEA, the two-stage model developed by Ray (1991) is the most convincing model which allows for an environmental adjustment. In this model, an efficiency analysis is conducted with DEA followed by an econometric analysis to explain the efficiency scores. An environmental variable of particular interest, tested in this thesis, consists of the fact that operations are held, for certain schools, on multiple sites. Results show that the fact of being located on more than one site has a negative influence on efficiency. A likely way to solve this negative influence would consist of improving the use of ICT in school management and teaching. Planning new schools should also consider the advantages of being located on a unique site, which allows reaching a critical size in terms of pupils and teachers. The fact that underprivileged pupils perform worse than privileged pupils has been public knowledge since Coleman et al. (1966). As a result, underprivileged pupils have a negative influence on school efficiency. This is confirmed by this thesis for the first time in Switzerland. Several countries have developed priority education policies in order to compensate for the negative impact of disadvantaged socioeconomic status on school performance. These policies have failed. As a result, other actions need to be taken. In order to define these actions, one has to identify the social-class differences which explain why disadvantaged children underperform. Childrearing and literary practices, health characteristics, housing stability and economic security influence pupil achievement. Rather than allocating more resources to schools, policymakers should therefore focus on related social policies. For instance, they could define pre-school, family, health, housing and benefits policies in order to improve the conditions for disadvantaged children.

Roadway Lighting and Safety: Phase II – Monitoring Quality, Durability and Efficiency, November 2011

This Phase II project follows a previous project titled Strategies to Address Nighttime Crashes at Rural, Unsignalized Intersections. Based on the results of the previous study, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) indicated interest in pursuing further research to address the quality of lighting, rather than just the presence of light, with respect to safety. The research team supplemented the literature review from the previous study, specifically addressing lighting level in terms of measurement, the relationship between light levels and safety, and lamp durability and efficiency. The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) teamed with a national research leader in roadway lighting, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to collect the data. An integral instrument to the data collection efforts was the creation of the Roadway Monitoring System (RMS). The RMS allowed the research team to collect lighting data and approach information for each rural intersection identified in the previous phase. After data cleanup, the final data set contained illuminance data for 101 lighted intersections (of 137 lighted intersections in the first study). Data analysis included a robust statistical analysis based on Bayesian techniques. Average illuminance, average glare, and average uniformity ratio values were used to classify quality of lighting at the intersections.