Projeto de desenvolvimento do sistema de contas nacionais financeiras em Moçambique

As Contas Nacionais ocupam uma posição de destaque no conjunto de todas as estatísticas económicas produzidas por um determinado país ou região, pois o sistema no qual assenta a sua produção, estabelece um padrão internacionalmente aceite em termos de conceitos, definições, classificações e metodologias permitindo a comparabilidade entre as várias estatísticas produzidas ao nível nacional e internacional, assim como a adaptação a qualquer país e a harmonização entre os diferentes sistemas estatísticos. No seu cerne está a medição do nível de crescimento e desempenho de uma economia, assim como a determinação da capacidade (+) / necessidade (‐) de financiamento de uma economia A produção das contas nacionais baseia‐se no Sistema de Contas Nacionais das Nações Unidas, cujo objetivo é a medição do nível de atividade económica (produto interno bruto), através do registo dos fluxos e stocks gerados entre os agentes económicos de uma economia, e entre estes e o resto do mundo, com base em padrões e recomendações internacionalmente aceites. O presente trabalho apresenta uma proposta de modelo de produção das estatísticas de contas nacionais financeiras em Moçambique, com vista a completar o modelo atualmente existente que comporta apenas a produção das contas não financeiras. Os resultados apresentados pelo modelo estão organizados em matrizes que resumem as operações financeiras realizadas entre os agentes económicos, onde se cruzam os instrumentos financeiros com os diversos setores institucionais residentes e o resto do mundo enquanto intervenientes nas operações realizadas. Nesse sentido, são apresentados, (i) quadros de património que apresentam o stock de ativos financeiros e passivos existentes num dado momento, assim como o saldo que representa o património líquido, (ii) a matriz “quem a quem” que resume as operações em forma de matriz tridimensional, onde aparecem os instrumentos financeiros e as duas partes intervenientes na operação na qualidade de credor e devedor, e (iii) a matriz de variação de stocks que, para efeitos deste trabalho, é apresentado como proxy da matriz de transações em ativos financeiros e passivos realizados num determinado momento, assim como a poupança financeira.

Correlates of intergenerational mobility and political violence

This work project aims at exploring the role of intergenerational immobility in political violence. A cross-country macro-level analysis is done where no significant results are found. Additionally, an individual micro-level analysis is done where intergenerational mobility (measured through a proxy variable) has a negative significant effect in political violence

Modelo preditivo de insolvência no setor farmacêutico : aplicação à farmácia comunitária portuguesa

O setor farmacêutico apresenta um elevado grau de complexidade, dada a regulamentação a que está sujeito. Atualmente, um dos principais problemas deste setor prende-se com o acentuado aumento (142,6% entre dezembro de 2012 e julho de 2014) do número de farmácias insolventes, sendo impacto da crise económica e consequentes medidas regulamentares aplicadas com o Memorando de Entendimento da Troika. Dada a importância que as farmácias têm na dispensa do medicamento assim como o papel do farmacêutico no aconselhamento diário aos utentes, a redução do número de farmácias levanta problemas no acesso ao medicamento por parte da população. Assim, é necessário dotar as farmácias de ferramentas que lhes permitam gerir o seu negócio, criando bases sólidas de forma a terem uma maior capacidade de reagir em tempos de crise. Desta forma, o objetivo principal do trabalho é fornecer às farmácias uma dessas ferramentas, através da criação de um modelo preditivo de insolvência que permita estimar uma probabilidade de uma farmácia entrar em insolvência. Para o efeito, desenvolveu-se um modelo teórico, com base na revisão de literatura científica e na análise do setor farmacêutico em Portugal, que foi depois testado recorrendo a métodos de estimação com recurso ao modelo logit através do método da Máxima Verosimilhança. O modelo empírico foi estimado com dados de uma amostra de 97 farmácias, selecionadas a partir de uma base de dados da ANF. Esta amostra é composta por todas as farmácias insolventes e por uma seleção aleatória de farmácias solventes, para as quais foi possível utilizar informação proveniente do IES, mantendo a total confidencialidade, nomeadamente dados relativos às dimensões consideradas no modelo teórico: Autonomia Financeira, Endividamento, Gestão de Inventários, Gestão de Funcionários, Liquidez, Prazo Médio de Pagamentos do Estado, Prazo Médio Pagamentos a Fornecedores, Rendibilidade, Solvabilidade, Tesouraria, Dimensão e Localização. As dimensões referidas foram selecionadas após uma análise extensiva da bibliografia sobre esta temática. Estas dimensões foram incluídas na estimação através de variáveis proxy (com exceção da Tesouraria), para as quais foi também levada a cabo uma análise de sensibilidade. Depois de validados os pressupostos da estimação e de uma análise crítica sobre os resultados, foi possível selecionar um modelo em que mais de 90% das observações foram classificadas corretamente. O modelo preditivo selecionado inclui as variáveis proxy das dimensões: Autonomia Financeira, Prazo Médio Pagamentos a Fornecedores, Endividamento, Rendibilidade, Dimensão e Localização. Em testes posteriores, validou-se a capacidade preditiva do modelo com recurso a uma amostra de teste.

Epidemiology and prevention of cardiovascular disease in the Seychelles Islands (Indian Ocean)

This article presents selected findings and lessons from a cardiovascular research and prevention program initiated in 1989 in the Republic of Seychelles, a country in demographic and epidemiological transition. Rapid and sustained aging of the population (e.g., two-fold increase of people aged 30-39 from 1979 to 1995) implies, over the next few decades, further dramatic increase of the burden of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD). Epidemiological surveillance shows high age-specific rates of CVD (particularly stroke), high prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis (plaques in carotid and femoral arteries), high prevalence of classical modifiable risk factors in the adult population (particularly hypertension), and substantial proportions of children with overweight. Stagnant life expectancy in men and an increase in women have been observed over the last two decades; this occurred despite largely improved health services and reduced infant mortality rates, and may reflect the large CVD burden found in middle-aged men (less so in middle-aged women). A national program of prevention of CVD has been initiated since 1991, which includes a mix of interventions to reduce risk factors in the general population and in high-risk individuals. Substantial research to back the prevention program indeed shows, at the moment, epidemiological patterns in Seychelles similar to those observed in Western countries (e.g., an association between peripheral atherosclerosis [as a proxy of CVD] and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol, smoking, diabetes, and [inversely] walking). This clearly supports the view that promotion of healthy lifestyles and control of conventional risk factors should be the main targets for CVD prevention and control.

Physical activity attenuates the influence of FTO variants on obesity risk: a meta-analysis of 218,166 adults and 19,268 children.

BACKGROUND: The FTO gene harbors the strongest known susceptibility locus for obesity. While many individual studies have suggested that physical activity (PA) may attenuate the effect of FTO on obesity risk, other studies have not been able to confirm this interaction. To confirm or refute unambiguously whether PA attenuates the association of FTO with obesity risk, we meta-analyzed data from 45 studies of adults (n = 218,166) and nine studies of children and adolescents (n = 19,268). METHODS AND FINDINGS: All studies identified to have data on the FTO rs9939609 variant (or any proxy [r(2)>0.8]) and PA were invited to participate, regardless of ethnicity or age of the participants. PA was standardized by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable (physically inactive versus active) in each study. Overall, 25% of adults and 13% of children were categorized as inactive. Interaction analyses were performed within each study by including the FTO×PA interaction term in an additive model, adjusting for age and sex. Subsequently, random effects meta-analysis was used to pool the interaction terms. In adults, the minor (A-) allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity by 1.23-fold/allele (95% CI 1.20-1.26), but PA attenuated this effect (p(interaction)  = 0.001). More specifically, the minor allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity less in the physically active group (odds ratio  = 1.22/allele, 95% CI 1.19-1.25) than in the inactive group (odds ratio  = 1.30/allele, 95% CI 1.24-1.36). No such interaction was found in children and adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: The association of the FTO risk allele with the odds of obesity is attenuated by 27% in physically active adults, highlighting the importance of PA in particular in those genetically predisposed to obesity.

Am I shrinking? On clothing size and body size.

Comment on: Hughes LA, Schouten LJ, Goldbohm RA, van den Brandt PA, Weijenberg MP. Self-reported clothing size as a proxy measure for body size. Epidemiology. 2009 Sep;20(5):673-6. PMID: 19451821

Association of PCK1 with Body Mass Index and Other Metabolic Features in Patients With Psychotropic Treatments.

Weight gain is a major health problem among psychiatric populations. It implicates several receptors and hormones involved in energy balance and metabolism. Phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase 1 is a rate-controlling enzyme involved in gluconeogenesis, glyceroneogenesis and cataplerosis and has been related to obesity and diabetes phenotypes in animals and humans. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase 1 polymorphisms with metabolic traits in psychiatric patients treated with psychotropic drugs inducing weight gain and in general population samples. One polymorphism (rs11552145G > A) significantly associated with body mass index in the psychiatric discovery sample (n = 478) was replicated in 2 other psychiatric samples (n1 = 168, n2 = 188), with AA-genotype carriers having lower body mass index as compared to G-allele carriers. Stronger associations were found among women younger than 45 years carrying AA-genotype as compared to G-allele carriers (-2.25 kg/m, n = 151, P = 0.009) and in the discovery sample (-2.20 kg/m, n = 423, P = 0.0004). In the discovery sample for which metabolic parameters were available, AA-genotype showed lower waist circumference (-6.86 cm, P = 0.008) and triglycerides levels (-5.58 mg/100 mL, P < 0.002) when compared to G-allele carriers. Finally, waist-to-hip ratio was associated with rs6070157 (proxy of rs11552145, r = 0.99) in a population-based sample (N = 123,865, P = 0.022). Our results suggest an association of rs11552145G > A polymorphism with metabolic-related traits, especially in psychiatric populations and in women younger than 45 years.

An international investigation on the validity of the CSAPPA scale in screening for developmental coordination disorder /

The main objective of the present investigation was to continue the research initiated by Hay and colleagues (2004) in examining the efficacy of the Children's Self-Perceptions of Adequacy in and Predilection for Physical Activity (CSAPPA) scale as a proxy for the short form of the Bruininks-Oseretsky Test of Motor Proficiency (BOTMP-SF) in screening for Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD) in children. To better appreciate DCD knowledge outside Canada, the measurements of this investigation were expanded in Greece. A translated Greek CSAPP A scale and the BOTMP-SF were administered for the first time in Greek children. A second objective was to investigate the relationship between DCD and various risk factors of coronary artery disease (CAD) in Canadian and Greek children. A sample of 591 (Ms=322; Fs=269) Canadian and 392 (Ms=211; Fs=181) Greek children, aged 9 to 13 years, consented to the BOTMP-SF, CSAPP A Scale, participation in physical activity questionnaire, Leger 20-meter Multistage Shuttle Run test, and body fat using bioelectric impedance. Prevalence of DCD in Canada and Greece was 8% and 19%, respectively. Significant agreement (p

Canadian investors and the discount on closed-end funds

Small investors' sentiment has been proposed by behaviouralists to explain the existence and behavior of discount on closed-end funds (CEFD). The empirical tests of this sentiment hypothesis so far provide equivocal results. Besides, most of out-of-sample tests outside U.S. are not robust in the sense that they fail to well control other firm characteristics and risk factors that may explain stock return and to provide a formal cross-sectional test of the link between CEFD and stock return. This thesis explores the role of CEFD in asset pricing and further validates CEFD as a sentiment proxy in Canadian context and augments the extant studies by examining the redemption feature inherent in Canadian closed-end funds and by enhancing the robustness of the empirical tests. Our empirical results document differential behaviors in discounts between redeemable funds and non-redeemable funds. However, we don't find supportive evidence of CEFD as a priced factor. Specifically, the stocks with different exposures to CEFD fail to provide significantly different average return. Nor does CEFD provide significant incremental explanatory power, after controlling other well-known firm characteristics and risk factors, in cross-sectional as well as time-series variation of stock return. This evidence, together with the findings from our direct test of CEFD as a sentiment index, suggests that CEFD, even the discount on traditional non-redeemable closed-end funds, is unlikely to be driven by elusive sentiment in Canada.

Profitable opportunities around macroeconomic announcements in the U.S. Treasury market

This thesis studies the impact of macroeconomic announcements on the U.S. Treasury market and investigates profitable opportunities around macroeconomic announcements using data from the eSpeed electronic trading platform. We investigate how macroeconomic announcements affect the return predictability of trade imbalance for the 2-year, 5-year, IO-year U.S. Treasury notes and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodology to identify informed trades and estimate the trade imbalance based on informed trades. We use the daily order book slope as a proxy for dispersion of beliefs among investors. Regression results in this thesis indicate that, on announcement days with a high dispersion of beliefs, daily trade imbalance estimated by informed trades significantly predicts returns on the following day. In addition, we develop a trade-imbalance based trading strategy conditional on dispersion of beliefs, informed trades, and announcement days. The trading strategy yields significantly positive net returns for the 2-year T-notes.

The convergence of psychopathy, self-rated vulnerability, and other-rated vulnerability

Previous research has found that victims of crime tend to exhibit asynchronous movement (e.g. Grayson & Stein, 1981), and the fact that victims display different body language suggests that they may be sending inadvertent signals to their own vulnerability (e.g. Murzynski & Degelman, 1996). Body language has also be en linked with s e l f identification as a victim (Wheeler et aI., 2009), and self-identification has be en found to act as a proxy for more severe victimization (Baumer, 2002) and greater fear of crime (Greenberg & Beach, 2004). The first prediction in the present study, then, was that self-perceived vulnerability would be correlated with body language, while number of previous victimizations mayor may not show the same relationship. Findings from the present study indicate that self-perceived vulnerability exhibits a positive correlation with the body language cues that approaches significance r (10) = .45,p =.07, one-tailed. Different types of victimization, however, were not significantly correlated with these cues. A second goal of the study was to examine the relationship between psychopathic traits and accuracy in judgments of vulnerability. Seventy male participants rated the vulnerability of 12 female targets filmed walking down a hallway who had provided selfratings of vulnerability. Individuals scoring higher on Factor 2 and total psychopathy were significantly less discrepant from target self-rat~ngs of vulnerability, r (64) = - .39,p < .001; r (64) = - .29,p >.01, respectively. The final purpose of this study was to determine which body language cues were mos t salient to raters when making judgments of vulnerability. Participants rated the apparent vulnerability of a target in 7 video clips portraying each body language cue in isolation and a natural walk. Results of repeated measures analyses indicate that the videos rated as most vulnerable to victimization were those displaying low energy and l a ck of synchrony, followed by wide stride, short stride, and stiffknees, while the video displaying ne ck stiffness did not receive significantly different ratings from the mode l ' s natural walk. Replication with a larger sample size is necessary to increase confidence in findings and implications.

Genetic Analysis of Taste in Homo Sapiens

There are many known taste receptors specific to each taste attribute. This thesis examines the relationship between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and copy number variations (CNVs) in known taste and taste pathway receptors TAS2R38, Gustin, and TRPM5 and for PROP (6-n-propylthiouracil) taster status (PTS), thermal taster status (TTS), and orosensory sensation intensity ratings. PTS is a proxy for general taste responsiveness, and the ability to taste PROP classifies individuals into three phenotypes: super (PST), medium (PMT), and non-tasters (PNT). Another taste phenotype, also serving as a proxy for general taste responsiveness, is TTS, classifying individuals as thermal tasters (TTs) or thermal non-tasters (TnTs). DNA extractions from buccal cells obtained from 60 individuals were performed and analysis of TAS2R38, Gustin, and TRPM5 variations were conducted through Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR), sequencing for SNPs, and upQMPSF for CNV analysis of TRPM5. Among the SNPs and CNVs studied, only TAS2R38 was found to be significantly associated with PTS and intensity ratings for sweet, bitter, and sour taste as well as astringency. However, not all PROP phenotypic differences can be explained by the variations at these three SNP sites in TAS2R38, suggesting the involvement of additional genes. No association was found between TTS and TAS2R38 or Gustin, confirming that PTS and TTS are not genetically associated. The examined TRPM5 SNPs and CNVs did not correlate with TTS. Therefore, further research is necessary into other factors contributing to PTS and TTS.

Integrated Management of Interface Power (IMIP) Framework

La présence importante de plusieurs réseaux sans-fils de différentes portées a encouragée le développement d’une nouvelle génération d’équipements portables sans-fils avec plusieurs interfaces radio. Ainsi, les utilisateurs peuvent bénéficier d’une large possibilité de connectivité aux réseaux sans-fils (e.g. Wi-Fi [1], WiMAX [2], 3G [3]) disponibles autour. Cependant, la batterie d’un nœud mobile à plusieurs interfaces sera rapidement épuisée et le temps d’utilisation de l’équipement sera réduit aussi. Pour prolonger l’utilisation du mobile les standards, des réseaux sans-fils, on définie (individuellement) plusieurs états (émission, réception, sleep, idle, etc.); quand une interface radio n’est pas en mode émission/réception il est en mode sleep/idle où la consommation est très faible, comparée aux modes émission/réception. Pourtant, en cas d’équipement portable à multi-interfaces radio, l’énergie totale consommée par les interfaces en mode idle est très importante. Autrement, un équipement portable équipé de plusieurs interfaces radio augmente sa capacité de connectivité mais réduit sa longévité d’utilisation. Pour surpasser cet inconvénient on propose une plate-forme, qu'on appelle IMIP (Integrated Management of Interface Power), basée sur l’extension du standard MIH (Media Independent Handover) IEEE 802.21 [4]. IMIP permet une meilleure gestion d’énergie des interfaces radio, d’un équipement mobile à multi-radio, lorsque celles-ci entrent en mode idle. Les expérimentations que nous avons exécutées montrent que l’utilisation de IMIP permet d'économiser jusqu'a 80% de l'énergie consommée en comparaison avec les standards existants. En effet, IMIP permet de prolonger la durée d'utilisation d'équipements à plusieurs interfaces grâce à sa gestion efficace de l'énergie.

Étude des déterminants démographiques de l’hypotrophie fœtale au Québec

Cette recherche vise à décrire l’association entre certaines variables démographiques telles que l’âge de la mère, le sexe, le rang de naissance et le statut socio-économique – représenté par l’indice de Pampalon – et l’hypotrophie fœtale au Québec. L’échantillon est constitué de 127 216 naissances simples et non prématurées ayant eu lieu au Québec entre le 1er juillet 2000 et le 30 juin 2002. Des régressions logistiques portant sur le risque d’avoir souffert d’un retard de croissance intra-utérine ont été effectuées pour l’ensemble du Québec ainsi que pour la région socio-sanitaire (RSS) de Montréal. Les résultats révèlent que les enfants de premier rang et les enfants dont la mère était âgée de moins de 25 ans ou de 35 ans et plus lors de l’accouchement ont un risque plus élevé de souffrir d’hypotrophie fœtale et ce dans l’ensemble du Québec et dans la RSS de Montréal. De plus, les résultats démontrent que le risque augmente plus la mère est défavorisée. Puisque l’indice de Pampalon est un proxy écologique calculé pour chaque aire de diffusion, les intervenants en santé publique peuvent désormais cibler géographiquement les femmes les plus à risque et adapter leurs programmes de prévention en conséquence. Ainsi, le nombre de cas d’hypotrophie fœtale, voire même la mortalité infantile, pourraient être réduits.

Cross–Sectoral Variation in Firm–Level Idiosyncratic Risk

We estimate firm–level idiosyncratic risk in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Our proxy for risk is the volatility of the portion of growth in sales or TFP which is not explained by either industry– or economy–wide factors, or firm characteristics systematically associated with growth itself. We find that idiosyncratic risk accounts for about 90% of the overall uncertainty faced by firms. The extent of cross–sectoral variation in idiosyncratic risk is remarkable. Firms in the most volatile sector are subject to at least three times as much uncertainty as firms in the least volatile. Our evidence indicates that idiosyncratic risk is higher in industries where the extent of creative destruction is likely to be greater.