944 resultados para projections


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This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections.

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The purpose of gamma spectrometry and gamma and X-ray tomography of nuclear fuel is to determine both radionuclide concentration and integrity and deformation of nuclear fuel. The aims of this thesis have been to find out the basics of gamma spectrometry and tomography of nuclear fuel, to find out the operational mechanisms of gamma spectrometry and tomography equipment of nuclear fuel, and to identify problems that relate to these measurement techniques. In gamma spectrometry of nuclear fuel the gamma-ray flux emitted from unstable isotopes is measured using high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy. The production of unstable isotopes correlates with various physical fuel parameters. In gamma emission tomography the gamma-ray spectrum of irradiated nuclear fuel is recorded for several projections. In X-ray transmission tomography of nuclear fuel a radiation source emits a beam and the intensity, attenuated by the nuclear fuel, is registered by the detectors placed opposite. When gamma emission or X-ray transmission measurements are combined with tomographic image reconstruction methods, it is possible to create sectional images of the interior of nuclear fuel. MODHERATO is a computer code that simulates the operation of radioscopic or tomographic devices and it is used to predict and optimise the performance of imaging systems. Related to the X-ray tomography, MODHERATO simulations have been performed by the author. Gamma spectrometry and gamma and X-ray tomography are promising non-destructive examination methods for understanding fuel behaviour under normal, transient and accident conditions.

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Most ecosystems undergo substantial variation over the seasons, ranging from changes in abiotic features, such as temperature, light and precipitation, to changes in species abundance and composition. How seasonality varies along latitudinal gradients is not well known in freshwater ecosystems, despite being very important in predicting the effects of climate change and in helping to advance ecological understanding. Stream temperature is often well correlated with air temperature and influences many ecosystem features such as growth and metabolism of most aquatic organisms. We evaluated the degree of seasonality in ten river mouths along a latitudinal gradient for a set of variables, ranging from air and water temperatures, to physical and chemical properties of water and growth of an invasive fish species (eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki ). Our results show that although most of the variation in air temperature was explained by latitude and season, this was not the case for water features, including temperature, in lowland Mediterranean streams, which depended less on season and much more on local factors. Similarly, although there was evidence of latitude-dependent seasonality in fish growth, the relationship was nonlinear and weak and the significant latitudinal differences in growth rates observed during winter were compensated later in the year and did not result in overall differences in size and growth. Our results suggest that although latitudinal differences in air temperature cascade through properties of freshwater ecosystems, local factors and complex interactions often override the water temperature variation with latitude and might therefore hinder projections of species distribution models and effects of climate change

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The importance of chemical language and specifically of molecular models and their representations in the development of chemistry is discussed. Structural formulas are projections of molecular models used as a specific language by chemists. The meaningful learning of chemistry requires knowledge of this language. The use of these analogical symbols without the necessary understanding engenders difficulties for the learning of chemistry.

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Most climate change projections show important decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. We assess those main climate change impacts on water resources in three medium-sized catchments with varying climatic conditions in north-eastern Spain. A combination of hydrological modelling and climate projections with B1 and A2 IPCC emission scenarios is performed to infer future stream flows. The largest reduction (22-48% for 2076-2100) of stream flows is expected in the headwaters of the two wettest catchments, while lower decreases (22-32% for 2076-2100) are expected in the drier one. In all three catchments, autumn and summer are the seasons with the most notable projected decreases in stream flow, 50% and 34%, respectively (2076-2100). Thus, ecological flows might be noticeably impacted by climate change in the catchments, especially in the headwaters of those wet catchments.

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Axis of quinary symmetry occur in molecular symmetry, as in the case of fullerenes, and in crystalline symmetry, in the quasicrystals. Minerals with pentagonal faces do not have this element of symmetry, as the pyrite (FeS2) which shows a ridge that is different from the other ones, in any face of the crystal. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate conceptual differences between pyritohedron and regular pentagonal dodecahedron symmetries, discussing students' difficulties to identify them. Also is proposed a didactic experiment with spatial models of the above-mentioned forms and the demonstration of its symmetries in clinographic projections.

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Leditekniikan kehitys viime vuosina on mahdollistanut niiden käytön yleisvalaistuksessa. Tässä työssä tehdään katsaus leditekniikan nykytilaan ja tulevaisuuteen, sekä osoitetaan, että ledivalaisimien energiankulutuksessa ja huoltokustannuksissa tehdyillä säästöillä voidaan kattaa suuremmat hankintakustannukset ja päästä yhtä suuriin tai pienempiin elinkaarikustannuksiin verrattuna perinteisiin kaasupurkausvalaisimiin. Valaisimien määrät on laskettu Dialux-valaistuslaskentaohjelmalla siten että rautatieasemien avolaitureiden ja katettujen laitureiden valaistusvaatimukset täyttyvät. Tuloksia voi soveltaa muihin vastaaviin tiloihin kuten asematunneleihin tai kevyen liikenteen väylille.

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If the mental can affect, or be affected by, the physical, then the mental must itself be physical. Otherwise the physical world would not be explanatorily closed. But it is closed. There are reasons to hold that materialism (in both its reductive and non-reductive varieties) is false. So how are we to explain the apparent responsiveness of the physical to the mental and vice versa? The only possible solution seems to be this: physical objects are really projections or isomorphs of objects whose essential properties are mental. (A slightly less accurate way of putting this would be to say: the constitutive - i.e. the non-structural and non-phenomenal - properties of physical objects are mental, i.e. are such as we are used to encountering only in "introspection".) The chair, qua thing that I can know through sense perception, and through hypotheses based strictly thereupon, is a kind of shadow of an object that is exactly like it, except that this other objects essential properties are mental. This line of thought, though radically counterintuitive, explains the apparent responsiveness of the mental to the physical, and vice versa, without being open to any of the criticisms to which materialism, dualistic interaction ism, and epiphenomenalism are open.

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Visual art practice has generally been described as a lonely affair, thinking about what an artist has experienced in the outside world. This study is an inquiry into a visual art practice of another kind: the relational one. The research purpose is twofold. The first purpose is to shed light on a visual artist’s conceptions of art, education and scholarship. The second purpose is to by reasoning on imagination and a rhizomatic formation interpret the relations created between art, multimodality and literacy learning as an aesthetic approach to education. By inquiry into a specific collaborated long-term art practice, the study conveys how the meaning making elements of an arts based learning practice gradually transform an artist’s and a teacher’s concepts of art education to an aesthetic approach to education. In the art practice examined the typical Finnish rye bread and a poem have represented a cultural theme that has been elaborated through art conventions. The poem and the rye bread have in the art practice been articulated as cultural representations of as well as symbolic projections on the Swedishspeaking minority culture in Finland. The study connects art informed inquiry to a hermeneutic research rationale where the research reasoning is generated through a rhizomatic alliance between empiric data and theories. The reasoning is constructed as an interpretation pattern that expands throughout the study. The study arguments that the rhizome as an aesthetic formation can be appropriate to refer to when articulating arts based meaning making and when creating arts based educational strategies, dialogues, aesthetic learning and multimodal literacy in education. The study investigates an aesthetic approach to research in education, which means that the art practice surveyed is interpreted through articulation appropriate to poetic aspects of art, education and research.

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Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.

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Tämä diplomityö käsittelee tuulivoimageneraattorin konseptisuunnittelua. Työssä käydään läpi tuulivoimateollisuuden, -markkinoiden ja -turbiinien historiaa, nykyhetkeä ja tulevaisuuden ennusteita. Tuulivoimaturbiineista esitellään yleisimmät tyypit ja teknologiat, joita vertaillaan keskenään. Lisäksi selvitetään tarkemmin suoravetoisten tuuliturbiinigeneraattoreiden teknologiaa ja teknisiä rakenteita joita myös vertaillaan keskenään. Työn pääasiallisena tarkoituksena on luoda selkeä konseptisuunnitteluprojektin toimintamalli, jota noudattamalla projekti voidaan hoitaa johdonmukaisesti läpi. Lopuksi työssä vielä käydään läpi suoravetoisen kestomagneettigeneraattorin todellinen konseptisuunnitteluprojekti, jossa ei ole ollut käytössä selkeää toimintamallia.

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One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

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C-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) is traditionally recognized as a crucial factor in stress response and inducer of apoptosis upon various stimulations. Three isoforms build the JNK subfamily of MAPK; generally expressed JNK1 and JNK2 and brain specific JNK3. Degenerative potency placed JNK in the spotlight as potential pharmacological option for intervention. Unfortunately, adverse effects of potential drugs and observation that expression of only JNK2 and JNK3 are induced upon stress, restrained initial enthusiasm. Notably, JNK1 demonstrated atypical high constitutive activity in neurons that is not responsive to cellular stresses and indicated existence of physiological activity. This thesis aimed at revealing the physiological functions of JNK1 in actin homeostasis through novel effector MARCKS-Like 1 (MARCKSL1) protein, neuronal trafficking mediated by major kinesin-1 motor protein and microtubule (MT) dynamics via STMN2/SCG10. The screen for novel physiological JNK substrates revealed specific phosphorylation of C-terminal end of MARCKSL1 at S120, T148 and T183 both ex vivo and in vitro. By utilizing site-specific mutagenesis, various actin dynamics and migrations assays we were able to demonstrate that JNK1 phosphorylation specifically facilitates F-actin bundling and thus filament stabilisation. Consecutively, this molecular mechanism was proved to enhance formation of filopodia; cell surface projections that allow cell sensing surrounding environment and migrate efficiently. Our results visualize JNK dependent and MARCKSL1 executed induction of filopodia in neurons and fibroblast indicating general mechanism. Subsequently, inactivation of JNK action on MARCKSL1 shifts cellular actin machinery into lamellipodial dynamic arrangement. Tuning of actin cytoskeleton inevitably melds with cell migration. We observed that both active JNK and JNK pseudo-phosphorylated form of MARCKSL1 reduce actin turnover in intact cells leading to overall diminished cell motility. We demonstrate that tumour transformed cells from breast, prostate, lung and muscle-derived cancers upregulate MARCKSL1. We showed on the example of prostate cancer PC-3 cell line that JNK phosphorylation negatively controls MARCKSL1 ability to induce migration, which precedes cancer cell metastasis. The second round of identification of JNK physiological substrates resulted in detection of predominant motor protein kinesin-1 (Kif5). Mass spectrometry detailed analysis showed evident endogenous phosphorylation of kinesin-1 on S176 within motor domain that interacts with MT. In vitro phosphorylation of bacterially expressed kinesin heavy chain by JNK isoforms displayed higher specificity of JNK1 when compared to JNK3. Since, JNK1 is constitutively active in neurons it signified physiological aspect of kinesin-1 regulation. Subsequent biochemical examination revealed that kinesin-1, when not phosphorylated on JNK site, exhibits much higher affinity toward MTs. Expression of the JNK non-phosphorable kinesin-1 mutant in intact cells as well as in vitro single molecule imaging using total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy indicated that the mutant loses normal speed and is not able to move processively into proper cellular compartments. We identify novel kinesin-1 cargo protein STMN2/SCG10, which along with known kinesin-1 cargo BDNF is showing impaired trafficking when JNK activity is inhibited. Our data postulates that constitutive JNK activity in neurons is crucial for unperturbed physiologically relevant transport of kinesin-1 dependant cargo. Additionally, my work helps to validate another novel physiological JNK1 effector STMN2/SCG10 as determinant of axodendritic neurites dynamics in the developing brain through regulation of MT turnover. We show successively that this increased MT dynamics is crucial during developmental radial migration when brain layering occurs. Successively, we are able to show that introduction of JNK phosphorylation mimicking STMN2/SCG10 S62/73D mutant rescues completely JNK1 genetic deletion migration phenotype. We prove that STMN2/SCG10 is predominant JNK effector responsible for MT depolymerising activity and neurite length during brain development. Summarizing, this work describes identification of three novel JNK substrates MARCKSL1, kinesin-1 and STMN2/SCG10 and investigation of their roles in cytoskeleton dynamics and cargo transport. This data is of high importance to understand physiological meaning of JNK activity, which might have an adverse effect during pharmaceutical intervention aiming at blocking pathological JNK action.

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This report characterizes the digital dermatitis (DD) lesions in the accessory digits of dairy cows and presents data on the applied therapy. Fifteen Holstein cattle with DD affecting the accessory digits of the hindlimbs from four dairy farms with previous history of DD were evaluated. Lesions were excised, the wounds were sutured, and a topical application of oxytetracycline powder covered by bandaging was associated with a single parenteral administration of long acting oxytetracycline IM (20mg/kg). Tissue samples were obtained for histopathology and transmission electronic microscopy (TEM). Lesions from all the animals were recuperated 15 days after surgical procedure. Overal, most DD lesions were papillomatous epidermal projections or wartlike verrucous lesions. Histopathologically, samples revealed hyperplasia of epidermis with hyperkeratosis, several mitoses in the stratum basale and elongated rete ridges in the superficial and middle dermis. TEM revealed long, thin spirochete-like bacteria. Morphologic features of lesions and its response to therapy were comparable to those described for DD.

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Abstract: The paired oviducal glands of immature and mature females of Mustelus schmitti were examined macro and microscopically. Findings indicate that these glands possessed the same zonation as in most chondrichthyans from anterior to posterior: club, papillary, baffle and terminal zones. The whole gland is composed by simple tubular glands that connect with transverse grooves all along the organ. The club zone presents a typical indian club shape with a simple columnar and ciliated epithelium including secretory cells PAS (+) and AB (+). The papillary zone is characterized by lamella forming small and long cones in numbers of three. The epithelium of this zone contains ciliated cells with apical nuclei and secretory cells with basal nuclei that stain AB (+)The baffle zone consists of apically flattened lamellae alternating with spinnerets which are small projections disposed by both sides of the plateau. This whole structure is present in number of 8 or 9 units. A simple columnar ciliated epithelium covers the plateau and spinnerets and no AB or PAS staining is observed. The epithelium of the terminal zone is PAS (-) and AB (+), and elongated tubules, that run adjacent to the baffle zone are the site where groups of spermatozoa are clearly observed in the lumen. The epithelium of the sperm storage tubules do not stain with any of the dyes tested. Sperm was also observed in the baffle zone, presumably in its way to the fecundation in the oviduct because it displays no aggregation pattern and was between the folds of the epithelium. By scanning electron microscopy sperm was observed in the club and baffle zones in a gland which belonged to a pregnant female.