Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Biodegradable polymer drug-eluting stents reduce the risk of stent thrombosis at 4 years in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from the ISAR-TEST 3, ISAR-TEST 4, and LEADERS randomized trials

The efficacy of durable polymer drug-eluting stents (DES) is delivered at the expense of delayed healing of the stented vessel. Biodegradable polymer DES aim to avoid this shortcoming and may potentially improve long-term clinical outcomes, with benefit expected to accrue over time. We sought to compare long-term outcomes in patients treated with biodegradable polymer DES vs. durable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents (SES).

Bernese periacetabular osteotomy in males: is there an increased risk of femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) after Bernese periacetabular osteotomy?

The Bernese periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) is a popular option for treating symptomatic acetabular dysplasia. We noted symptomatic impingement after PAO in several male patients.

Do statins reduce the risk of aneurysm development? A case-control study

Recent studies in rats have demonstrated that statins may have an inhibitory effect on intracranial aneurysm (IA) development. The purpose of this study was to assess whether long-term statin use is associated with a reduced risk of IA formation in humans.

How obliteration of petrosal air cells by vestibular schwannoma influences the risk of postoperative CSF fistula

For postoperative CSF-fistula prevention a better understanding of its origins and risk factors is necessary. To identify the role of the tumor growth for the risk to develop CSF-fistula we performed a retrospective analysis.

Predicting future risk of asthma exacerbations using individual conditional probabilities

Determination of future risk of exacerbations is a key issue in the management of asthma. We previously developed a method to calculate conditional probabilities (π) of future decreases in lung function by using the daily fluctuations in peak expiratory flow (PEF).

The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) Study: initial description of the completed database

BACKGROUND: Detecting a benefit from closure of patent foramen ovale in patients with cryptogenic stroke is hampered by low rates of stroke recurrence and uncertainty about the causal role of patent foramen ovale in the index event. A method to predict patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk is needed. However, individual databases generally have too few stroke recurrences to support risk modeling. Prior studies of this population have been limited by low statistical power for examining factors related to recurrence. AIMS: The aim of this study was to develop a database to support modeling of patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk by combining extant data sets. METHODS: We identified investigators with extant databases including subjects with cryptogenic stroke investigated for patent foramen ovale, determined the availability and characteristics of data in each database, collaboratively specified the variables to be included in the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism database, harmonized the variables across databases, and collected new primary data when necessary and feasible. RESULTS: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism database has individual clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic data from 12 component databases, including subjects with cryptogenic stroke both with (n = 1925) and without (n = 1749) patent foramen ovale. In the patent foramen ovale subjects, a total of 381 outcomes (stroke, transient ischemic attack, death) occurred (median follow-up 2·2 years). While there were substantial variations in data collection between studies, there was sufficient overlap to define a common set of variables suitable for risk modeling. CONCLUSION: While individual studies are inadequate for modeling patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk, collaboration between investigators has yielded a database with sufficient power to identify those patients at highest risk for a patent foramen ovale-related stroke recurrence who may have the greatest potential benefit from patent foramen ovale closure.

The relapse risk of AML patients undergoing autologous transplantation correlates with the stem cell mobilizing potential

Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is widely used to consolidate first remission in AML. We determined the significance of circulating CD34+ cells at the day of blood stem cell collection in 78 AML patients. Patients mobilizing more than 60,000 CD34+ cells/ml had shorter overall survival (OS; P=0.0274), shorter time to progression (TTP; P=0.0014), and a higher relapse rate (P=0.0177). High levels of CD34+ cells were an independent marker for shorter OS and TTP in a multivariate analysis. These data suggest that ASCT is associated with unfavorable outcome in AML patients with high levels of mobilized peripheral CD34+ cells.

Plaque Characteristics of Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis and Risk of Stroke

The optimal treatment of asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) is controversial. To optimize the risk-benefit ratio of carotid artery revascularization, it is crucial to identify ACS patients who are at increased stroke risk. Recent data suggest that plaque vulnerability depends on its composition. Therefore, we assessed plaque composition in ACS to determine predictors for ipsilateral cerebrovascular events.