An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

Genetic variability and efficiency of DNA microsatellite markers for paternity testing in horse breeds from the Brazilian Marajó archipelago

In this study, 15 microsatellite DNA loci used in comparative tests by the International Society for Animal Genetics were applied to the evaluation of genetic diversity and management, and the efficiency of paternity testing in Marajoara horses and Puruca ponies from the Marajó Archipelago. Based on the genotyping of 93 animals, mean allelic diversity was estimated as 9.14 and 7.00 for the Marajoara and Puruca breeds, respectively. While these values are similar to those recorded in most European breeds, mean levels of heterozygosity were much lower (Marajoara 49%, Puruca 40%), probably as a result of high levels of inbreeding in the Marajó populations. The mean informative polymorphic content of this 15-marker system was over 50% in both breeds, and was slightly higher in the Marajoara horses. The discriminative power and exclusion probabilities derived from this system were over 99% for both populations, emphasizing the efficacy of these markers for paternity testing and genetic management in the two breeds.

O centro vive. O espetáculo da revalorização do centro de São Paulo: sobrevivência do capitalismo e apropriação do espaço

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

Estrutura e dinâmica de famílias com um filho com necessidades educacionais especiais

No contexto brasileiro, a investigação acerca das necessidades educacionais especiais concentra-se no estudo das dificuldades e possibilidades de inclusão desses alunos em classes regulares de ensino, enfatizando os processos de ensino e aprendizagem. Poucos estudos, no Brasil, admitem a família como objeto de análise, embora não se questione a sua importância para o desenvolvimento infantil. Dessa forma, com base no modelo bioecológico e na teoria estrutural sistêmica, admitindo-se a família como um campo de desenvolvimento comum a todos os membros faz-se necessário conhecer o modo como ela se estrutura para atender as demandas decorrentes da necessidade especial de seu filho e os efeitos dessa dinâmica nos demais membros. A partir disso objetivou-se descrever, a estrutura e a dinâmica de famílias de crianças com necessidades educacionais especiais, além de: analisar as interações e relações estabelecidas dentro de cada subsistema (conjugal, fraternal, parental) e entre eles, assim como identificar a organização familiar, a partir dos mecanismos de coesão e hierarquia de acordo com o modelo estrutural sistêmico. Como estratégia de pesquisa utilizou-se o estudo de casos múltiplos, com duas famílias de crianças com necessidades educacionais especiais, sendo uma menina surda, de dez anos, e um menino, de doze anos, com dificuldades de aprendizagem. Os instrumentos e técnicas aplicados foram: Roteiro de Entrevista Semi-Estruturado, Inventário de Rotina (IR), Observação Sistemática, Diário de Campo, Family System Test (FAST) e Genograma. Os escores de proximidade obtidos no FAST foram coerentes com os resultados do IR, demonstrando maior coesão na díade mãe-filho que na díade pai-filho, nas duas famílias; quanto à flexibilidade das fronteiras, em geral, a percepção das famílias foi de fronteiras rígidas, nos sistemas, familiar, parental e fraternal, sendo que, a distribuição de hierarquia foi percebida pela díade parental, nas duas famílias, como sinal de prediletância, para o subsistema fraternal, e dominação, para o parental, o que interferiu nas estruturas relacionais desses subsistemas percebidas pelos membros. Na avaliação do subsistema fraternal, a ausência de poder, representada pelos pais e a representação dessa variável pelas crianças resultou em diferenças de percepção, no grupo. Portanto, esse estudo permitiu, por meio da identificação das relações e percepções dos membros das famílias, a compreensão de sua dinâmica e a influência desta, na trajetória desenvolvimental das crianças e do grupo, a partir, das demandas decorrentes do diagnóstico e das estratégias peculiares a cada família para enfrentar as necessidades especiais de suas crianças. Percebe-se que a família, sendo a principal parceira da escola na educação, precisa ser olhada como um sistema cujas estratégias relacionais são fundamentais para que a criança tenha suas habilidades estimuladas podendo, assim, superar suas dificuldades.

Os espaços da sociabilidade segmentada: a produção do espaço público em Presidente Prudente

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A intolerável tolerância da era moderna

As teses de Foucatdt sobre a constituição do dispositivo da sexualidade encontram- se referenciadas em uma dupla crítica — histórica e metodológica — à hipótese repressiva da sexualidade. Trata-se de uma concepção positiva de poder que pretende dissociar dominação e repressão. A partir das idéias de Foucault sobre sexualidade e poder, o artigo procura estabelecer um contraponto entre suas concepções easde diferentes autores do campo marxista, como Marcuse e Adorno (identificados com a Escola de Frankfurt) e Pier Paolo Pasotini. Argumentase que as contribuições destes últimos parecem se inscrever em um registro que difere das teses foucaultianas acerca da produtividade do poder e, ao mesmo tempo, supera os limites impostos pela hipótese repressiva.

Utilization of teflon and aluminum oxide for wheel cleaning in Minimum Quantity Lubrication (MQL) grinding

Researches concerning cooling-lubrication optimization in grinding have been conducted to contribute to a more sustainable process. An alternative to flood coolant is minimum quantity lubrication (MQL), which spray oil droplets in a compressed air jet. However, problems related to wheel cleaning were reported, due to wheel loading by a mixture of chips and oil, resulting in worsening of surface quality. This work aims to evaluate the viability of Teflon and aluminum oxide for wheel cleaning, compared to MQL without cleaning and MQL with cleaning by compressed air, through the following output variables: surface roughness, roundness, wheel wear, grinding power and acoustic emission. Vickers microhardness measurements and optical microscopy were also carried out. The results showed that both materials were efficient in cleaning the wheel, compared to MQL without cleaning, but not as satisfactory as compressed air. Much work is to be done in order to select the right material for wheel cleaning.

Capacity of Active Power Reserve for Frequency Control Enhanced by Distributed Generators

Usually, ancillary services are provided by large conventional generators; however, with the growing interest in distributed generation to satisfy energy and environmental requirements, it seems reasonable to assume that these services could also be provided by distributed generators in an economical and efficient way. In this paper, a proposal for enhancement of the capacity of active power reserve for frequency control using distributed generators is presented. The goal is to minimize the payments done by the transmission system operator to conventional and distributed generators for this ancillary service and for the energy needed to satisfy loads and system losses, subject to a set of constraints. In order to perform analysis, the proposal was implemented using data of the IEEE 30-bus transmission test system. Comparisons were performed considering conventional generators without and with distributed generators installed in the system.

Swimming performance in semiaquatic and terrestrial Oryzomyine rodents

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Performance and emissions of a gas turbine engine using ox tallow ethyl-ester blended with kerosene

The performance and emissions behavior of a Rover 1S/60 turboshaft engine when operated with several blends of aviation kerosene and ox tallow ethyl-ester are shown in this article. The tests were performed with a compressor shaft coupled to an hydraulic dynamometer where data of power and mass fuel flow were collected to determine the brake specific fuel consumption. A flue gas analyzer was positioned at the exhaust duct to collect oxygen, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and nitrous oxides. An increase in the specific fuel consumption was observed due to the lesser lower heating value of the most oxygenated blends. However, reductions of CO, CO2 and NO (x) have been observed and no-significant ill effects have occurred in the turbine operation.

Optimal Reactive Power Planning Using Risk Analysis

In this paper, the optimal reactive power planning problem under risk is presented. The classical mixed-integer nonlinear model for reactive power planning is expanded into two stage stochastic model considering risk. This new model considers uncertainty on the demand load. The risk is quantified by a factor introduced into the objective function and is identified as the variance of the random variables. Finally numerical results illustrate the performance of the proposed model, that is applied to IEEE 30-bus test system to determine optimal amount and location for reactive power expansion.

Physical activity, adiposity and hypertension among patients of public healthcare system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The dynamic behavior of a cantilever beam coupled to a non-ideal unbalanced motor through numerical and experimental analysis

An excitation force that is not influenced by the system state is said to be an ideal energy source. In real situations, a direct and feedback coupling between the excitation source and the system must always exist at a certain level. This manifestation of the law of conservation of energy is known as the Sommerfeld effect. In the case of obtaining a mathematical model for such a system, additional equations are usually necessary to describe the vibration sources with limited power and its coupling with the mechanical system. In this work, a cantilever beam and a non-ideal DC motor fixed to its free end are analyzed. The motor has an unbalanced mass that provides excitation to the system which is proportional to the current applied to the motor. During the coast up operation of the motor, if the drive power is increased slowly, making the excitation frequency pass through the first natural frequency of the beam, the DC motor speed will remain the same until it suddenly jumps to a much higher value (simultaneously its amplitude jumps to a much lower value) upon exceeding a critical input power. It was found that the Sommerfeld effect depends on some system parameters and the motor operational procedures. These parameters are explored to avoid the resonance capture in the Sommerfeld effect. Numerical simulations and experimental tests are used to help gather insight of this dynamic behavior. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energetic and economic analysis of a Brazilian compact cogeneration system: Comparison between natural gas and biogas

Cogeneration may be defined as the simultaneous production of electric power and useful heat from the burning of a single fuel. This technique of combined heat and power production has been applied in both the industrial and tertiary sectors. It has been mainly used because of its overall efficiency, and the guarantee of electricity with a low level of environmental impact. The compact cogeneration systems using internal combustion engine as prime movers are thoroughly applied because of the good relationship among cost and benefit obtained in such devices. The cogeneration system of this study consists of an internal combustion engine using natural gas or biogas as fuel, combined with two heat exchangers and an absorption chiller utilising water-ammonia as working mixture. This work presents an energetic and economic comparison between natural gas and biogas as fuel used for the system proposed. The results are useful to identify the feasible applications for this system, such as residential sector in isolated areas, hotels, universities etc. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cogeneration design problem Computational complexity analysis and solution through an expert system

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is twofold: to analyze the computational complexity of the cogeneration design problem; to present an expert system to solve the proposed problem, comparing such an approach with the traditional searching methods available.Design/methodology/approach - The complexity of the cogeneration problem is analyzed through the transformation of the well-known knapsack problem. Both problems are formulated as decision problems and it is proven that the cogeneration problem is np-complete. Thus, several searching approaches, such as population heuristics and dynamic programming, could be used to solve the problem. Alternatively, a knowledge-based approach is proposed by presenting an expert system and its knowledge representation scheme.Findings - The expert system is executed considering two case-studies. First, a cogeneration plant should meet power, steam, chilled water and hot water demands. The expert system presented two different solutions based on high complexity thermodynamic cycles. In the second case-study the plant should meet just power and steam demands. The system presents three different solutions, and one of them was never considered before by our consultant expert.Originality/value - The expert system approach is not a "blind" method, i.e. it generates solutions based on actual engineering knowledge instead of the searching strategies from traditional methods. It means that the system is able to explain its choices, making available the design rationale for each solution. This is the main advantage of the expert system approach over the traditional search methods. On the other hand, the expert system quite likely does not provide an actual optimal solution. All it can provide is one or more acceptable solutions.