Estimating the output gap: a SVAR approach

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo calcular o hiato do produto por meio da identificação de choques de demanda estimados por um SVAR e estudar, em um modelo de pequeno porte que utiliza essa medida de hiato, como se dá a interdependência entre a política fiscal, a política monetária e a inflação. Essa abordagem identifica uma maior sensibilidade da inflação à política fiscal do que nas estimativas usuais encontradas na literatura brasileira. Por outro lado, as estimativas para a sensibilidade da inflação à política monetária estão em linha com os resultados de outros trabalhos. A principal vantagem desta metodologia é a identificação de choques de demanda em momentos de mudança da trajetória de produto potencial, como recentemente ocorreu na economia brasileira. Além disso, ela aponta uma possível explicação para o recente paradoxo entre o baixo crescimento da atividade e a alta inflação.

The evolution of international output differences (1960-2000) : from factor to productivity

This article presents a group of exercises of leveI and growth decomposition of output per worker using cross-collntry data from 1960 to :2000. It is shown that at least llntil 197.5 factors of production (capital anel education) ",ere the main source of output dispersion across ecoIlomies and that productivity variance was considerably srnaller than in late years. Qnly after this date the prominence of productivity started to sho\\' up in the data. as the majority of the litcrature has found. The gro\\'th decomposition exercises showecl that t he reversal of relative irnportance of proeluctivity vis-a-\'is factors is explainecl by the very good (bad) performance of procluctivity of fast (slow) growing cconomies. Although growth in the pcriod, on avcragc. is mostly clue to factors accumulation. its variance is explained by productivity.

Contracting with repeated moral hazard and private evaluations

A repeated moral hazard setting in which the Principal privately observes the Agent’s output is studied. It is shown that there is no loss from restricting the analysis to contracts in which the Agent is supposed to exert effort every period, receives a constant efficiency wage and no feedback until he is fired. The optimal contract for a finite horizon is characterized, and shown to require burning of resources. These are only burnt after the worst possible realization sequence and the amount is independent of both the length of the horizon and the discount factor (δ). For the infinite horizon case a family of fixed interval review contracts is characterized and shown to achieve first best as δ → 1. The optimal contract when δ << 1 is partially characterized. Incentives are optimally provided with a combination of efficiency wages and the threat of termination, which will exhibit memory over the whole history of realizations. Finally, Tournaments are shown to provide an alternative solution to the problem.

WalkNRide: contextualising feedback in physical activity trackers

Increasing levels of sedentarism and obesity, along with advances in sensor technologies have instigated a market for wearable activity trackers, electronic devices that sense users’ physical activity levels with the goals of self-monitoring and behaviour change. Nowadays, activity trackers are one of the most desirable technologies, making up for a market of over $230 million in 2013. However, despite the spike of users’ interest, activity trackers have been shown to lose their appeal over time, with a recent survey suggesting that one out of three users discard the tracker in the course of the first six months of use. The question we pose is: how can we design activity tracker so that users’ interests is sustained over the long term? Our design approach focuses on contextualising physical activity. We do this through sensing users’ locations and activities (such as being still, walking or commuting through a car, bus or other means) and thus providing innovative ways of presenting feedback on users. This thesis presents the design and evaluation of WalkNRide, a physical activity tracker for Google Android. Through a longitudinal field study of WalkNRide, we attempt to inquire into the factors that drive the adoption (or non-adoption) of the tool as well as the ways in which the use of the tool contributes towards habit formation.

Motivating sustainable goal choices and providing effective feedback

Overconsumption of natural resources and the associated environmental hazards are one of today’s most pressing global issues. In the western world, individual consumption in homes and workplaces is a key contributor to this problem. Reflecting the importance of individual action in this domain, this thesis focuses on studying and influencing choices related to sustainability and energy consumption made by people in their daily lives. There are three main components to this work. Firstly, this thesis asserts that people frequently make ineffective consumption reduction goal choices and attempts to understand the rationale for these poor choices by fitting them to goalsetting theory, an established theoretical model of behavior change. Secondly, it presents two approaches that attempt to influence goal choice towards more effective targets, one of which deals with mechanisms for goal priming and the other of which explores the idea that carefully designed toys can exert influence on children’s long term consumption behavior patterns. The final section of this thesis deals with the design of feedback to support the performance of environmentally sound activities. Key contributions surrounding goals include the finding that people choose easy sustainable goals despite immediate feedback as to their ineffectiveness and the discussion and study of goal priming mechanisms that can influence this choice process. Contributions within the design of value instilling toys include a theoretically grounded framework for the design of such toys and a completed and tested prototype toy. Finally, contributions in designing effective and engaging energy consumption feedback include the finding that negative feedback is best presented verbally compared with visually and this is exemplified and presented within a working feedback system. The discussions, concepts, prototypes and empirical findings presented in this work will be useful for both environmental psychologists and for HCI researchers studying eco-feedback.

Exploring the dimensions of eco-feedback in the wild

Worldwide reports about energy usage have noted the importance of the domestic energy consumption sector in the worldwide scenario. This fact motivated and supported the birth and spread of the so-called eco-feedback devices. Such devices provide information about individual or group energy consumption behavior with the goal of reducing the impact in the environment. Motivated by the body of work which questions the long term effectiveness of eco-feedback systems, this thesis focus on evaluating in-the-wild the long term usage of eco-feedback systems. We have conducted five long term studies with different eco-feedback systems designed to evaluate different dimensions in the design of eco-feedback plus two more focused short term studies aimed at studying concrete approaches. Our summary reports on the fact that the there is a novelty effect associated with ecofeedback systems in which the usage of these devices declines significantly after a month. We did not found evidence that the novelty effect is related to location or the type of information represented, nor that the decrease in the eco-feedback usage could lead to the consumption relapsing to values previous to the introduction of the eco-feedback. Our work has also generated other contributions related to the positioning of the feedback, using metaphors for representing the consumption and presenting information about the source of the energy in the feedback.

Fecundity and reproductive output of the speckled swimming crab Arenacus cribrarius (Lamarck, 1818) (Brachyura, Portunidae)

Areanaeus cribrarius females were collected over a 12-month period with otter-trawl nets in the Ubatuba littoral zone, Brazil. Ovigerous individuals were measured (CW = carapace width excluding lateral spines) and weighed (WW = wet weight). Each egg brood was weighed (WE = wet weight), dried, and the number of eggs (EN) counted. Scatterplots from EN/CW, EN/WW, and EN/WE were submitted to regression analyses. Mean relative fecundity ((F) over bar') was calculated in each month/season to assess seasonal variation of reproductive intensity. The number of eggs showed a positive correlation with CW, WW, and WE. Fecundity of A. cribrarius ranged from 135,210 to 682,156 eggs, intermediate in comparison with other portunids. Fecundity in Portunidae is typically high; lower values are found in Polybiinae and higher ones in Portuninae. Mean fecundity did not reveal significant differences over months and seasons, but reproductive activity tended to be more intense in summer and winter, a phenomenon related to reduced temperature oscillations as found in subtropical regions.

Comparison between two methods for cardiac output measurement in propofol-anesthetized dogs: thermodilution and Doppler

ObjectiveTo compare cardiac output (CO) measured by Doppler echocardiography and thermodilution techniques in spontaneously breathing dogs during continuous infusion of propofol. To do so, CO was obtained using the thermodilution method (CO(TD)) and Doppler evaluation of pulmonary flow (CO(DP)) and aortic flow (CO(DA)).Study designProspective cohort study.AnimalsEight adult dogs weighing 8.3 +/- 2.0 kg.MethodsPropofol was used for induction (7.5 +/- 1.9 mg kg-1 IV) followed by a continuous rate infusion at 0.7 mg kg-1 minute-1. The animals were positioned in left lateral recumbency on an echocardiography table that allowed for positioning of the transducer at the 3rd and 5th intercostal spaces of the left hemithorax for Doppler evaluation of pulmonary and aortic valves, respectively. CO(DP) and CO(DA) were calculated from pulmonary and aortic velocity spectra, respectively. A pulmonary artery catheter was inserted via the jugular vein and positioned inside the lumen of the pulmonary artery in order to evaluate CO(TD). The first measurement of CO(TD), CO(DP) and CO(DA) was performed 30 minutes after beginning continuous infusion (T0) and then at 15-minute intervals (T15, T30, T45 and T60). Numeric data were submitted to two-way anova for repeated measurements, Pearson's correlation coefficient and Bland & Altman analysis. Data are presented as mean +/- SD.ResultsAt T0, CO(TD) was lower than CO(DA). CO(DA) was higher than CO(TD) and CO(DP) at T30, T45 and T60. The difference between the CO(TD) and CO(DP), when all data were included, was -0.04 +/- 0.22 L minute-1 and Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) was 0.86. The difference between the CO(TD) and CO(DA) was -0.87 +/- 0.54 L minute-1 and r = 0.69. For CO(TD) and CO(DP), the difference was -0.82 +/- 0.59 L minute-1 and r = 0.61.ConclusionDoppler evaluation of pulmonary flow was a clinically acceptable method for assessing the CO in propofol-anesthetized dogs.

Uma proposta de um controlador adaptativo por posicionamento de pólos e estrutura variável

There are two main approaches for using in adaptive controllers. One is the so-called model reference adaptive control (MRAC), and the other is the so-called adaptive pole placement control (APPC). In MRAC, a reference model is chosen to generate the desired trajectory that the plant output has to follow, and it can require cancellation of the plant zeros. Due to its flexibility in choosing the controller design methodology (state feedback, compensator design, linear quadratic, etc.) and the adaptive law (least squares, gradient, etc.), the APPC is the most general type of adaptive control. Traditionally, it has been developed in an indirect approach and, as an advantage, it may be applied to non-minimum phase plants, because do not involve plant zero-pole cancellations. The integration to variable structure systems allows to aggregate fast transient and robustness to parametric uncertainties and disturbances, as well. In this work, a variable structure adaptive pole placement control (VS-APPC) is proposed. Therefore, new switching laws are proposed, instead of using the traditional integral adaptive laws. Additionally, simulation results for an unstable first order system and simulation and practical results for a three-phase induction motor are shown

Controle feedback de nível baseado em sensor de imagem aplicado ao equipamento misturador-decantador à inversão de fases (MDIF®)

The treatment of wastewaters contaminated with oil is of great practical interest and it is fundamental in environmental issues. A relevant process, which has been studied on continuous treatment of contaminated water with oil, is the equipment denominated MDIF® (a mixer-settler based on phase inversion). An important variable during the operation of MDIF® is the water-solvent interface level in the separation section. The control of this level is essential both to avoid the dragging of the solvent during the water removal and improve the extraction efficiency of the oil by the solvent. The measurement of oil-water interface level (in line) is still a hard task. There are few sensors able to measure oil-water interface level in a reliable way. In the case of lab scale systems, there are no interface sensors with compatible dimensions. The objective of this work was to implement a level control system to the organic solvent/water interface level on the equipment MDIF®. The detection of the interface level is based on the acquisition and treatment of images obtained dynamically through a standard camera (webcam). The control strategy was developed to operate in feedback mode, where the level measure obtained by image detection is compared to the desired level and an action is taken on a control valve according to an implemented PID law. A control and data acquisition program was developed in Fortran to accomplish the following tasks: image acquisition; water-solvent interface identification; to perform decisions and send control signals; and to record data in files. Some experimental runs in open-loop were carried out using the MDIF® and random pulse disturbances were applied on the input variable (water outlet flow). The responses of interface level permitted the process identification by transfer models. From these models, the parameters for a PID controller were tuned by direct synthesis and tests in closed-loop were performed. Preliminary results for the feedback loop demonstrated that the sensor and the control strategy developed in this work were suitable for the control of organic solvent-water interface level

Interação em sala de aula de língua inglesa: o feedback como estratégia do desempenho assistido

This dissertation aims at characterizing the practices as well as the effects of a teacher s feedback in oral conversation interaction with students in an English Language classroom at a Primary School, 6th Grade in Açu/RN, Brazil. Therefore, this study is based on Vygotsky s (1975) and Bruner´s (1976) researches, which state that the learning process is constructed through interaction between a more experienced individual (teacher, parents and friends) and a learner who plays an active role, a re-constructor of knowledge. It is also based on Ur´s (2006) and Brookhart s (2008) studies (among other authors in Applied Linguistic) who defend that the feedback process needs to be evaluative and formative since it sets interfaces with both students autonomy and learning improvement. Our study is based on qualitative, quantitative and interpretive researches, whose natural environment (the classroom) is a direct source of data generated in this research through field observations/note-taking as well as through the transcriptions of five English classes audio taped. This study shows the following results: the teacher still seems to accept the patterns of interaction in the classroom that correspond to the IRE process (Initiation, Response, Evaluation) in behaviorist patterns: (1) he speaks and determines the turns of speech; (2) the teacher asks more questions and directs the activities most of the time; (3) the teacher´s feedback presents the following types: questioning, modeling, repeated response, praise, depreciation, positive/negative and sarcasm feedback, whose functions are to assess students' performance based on the rightness and wrongness of their responses. Thus, this implies to state that the feedback does not seem to help students improvement in terms of acquiring knowledge because of its normative effects/roles. Therefore, it is the teacher´s role to give evaluative and formative feedback to a student so that he/she should advance in the learning of the language and in the construction of knowledge

A influência do feedback verbal na cooperação em crianças

Human cooperation is a hallmark of this species due to its wide extension to genetically unrelated individuals and complex division of labor. It is considered an evolutionary puzzle, because the theory of evolution by natural selection predicts that self-interested individuals tend to be selected. Different theories have been proposed to explain the evolution of cooperation, which the most important are kin selection and reciprocal altruism. Considering the evolutionary continuity between species, humans and other primates have several common traits that help to promote cooperation between individuals of these species. Two features, however, seem to be particularly humans: inequality aversion and preferences in relation to others. Although human cooperation is not necessarily related to morality, cooperative traits are the basis for moral tendencies. The development of human morality is a combination of early prosocial tendencies, cooperative skills displayed at different ages, social learning and cultural transmission of norms. The social stimulus seems to be particularly important in promoting cooperative behavior in children and adults. In order to study the influence of social stimuli, as verbal feedback, on children cooperation, a study was conducted with children in a public goods game. 407 children from public schools in Natal / RN, divided into 21 groups, between six and nine years, participated in eight rounds of this game. After each round, seven groups received praise for larger donations, seven groups have been criticized by smaller donations, and the other seven received no comment. Children cooperated more when criticized, without significant differences between sexes, although young children have cooperated more negative than older children. The results are likely related to the anticipation and avoidance of punishment associated with the feedback (although this did not occur), and greater sensitivity to the authority in younger children. Nevertheless, the cooperation decreased in all groups until the last day of play. The results suggest an early sensitivity to moral punishment, whose role in the maintenance of social relations must have been important in the evolution of cooperation in humans

H-2 and H-infinity-optimal control for the tracking problem with zero variation

The problem of signal tracking, in the presence of a disturbance signal in the plant, is solved using a zero-variation methodology. A state feedback controller is designed in order to minimise the H-2-norm of the closed-loop system, such that the effect of the disturbance is attenuated. Then, a state estimator is designed and the modification of the zeros is used to minimise the H-infinity-norm from the reference input signal to the error signal. The error is taken to be the difference between the reference and the output signals, thereby making it a tracking problem. The design is formulated in a linear matrix inequality framework, such that the optimal solution of the stated control problem is obtained. Practical examples illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Realimentação da derivada dos estados em sistemas multivariáveis lineares usando LMIs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)