The loss of trust in the European Union during the great recession since 2007: The role of heuristics from the national political system

How can we explain the decline in support for the European Union (EU) and the idea of European integration after the onset of the great recession in the fall of 2007? Did the economic crisis and the austerity policies that the EU imposed—in tandem with the IMF—on several member countries help cause this drop? While there is some evidence for this direct effect of EU policies, we find that the most significant determinant of trust and support for the EU remains the level of trust in national governments. Based on cue theory and using concepts of diffuse and specific support, we find that support for the EU is derived from evaluations of national politics and policy, which Europeans know far better than the remote political system of the EU. This effect, however, is somewhat muted for those sophisticated Europeans that are more knowledgeable about the EU and are able to form opinions about it independently of the national contexts in which they live. We also find that the recent economic crisis has led to a discernible increase in the number of those who are disillusioned with politics both at the national and the supranational level. We analyze 133 national surveys from 27 EU countries by estimating a series of cross-classified multilevel logistic regression models.

Locational policies in secondary capital cities: constructing a dynamic framework

Capital cities that are not the economic centers of their nations – so-called secondary capital cities (SSCs) – tend to be overlooked in the field of political science. Consequentially, there is a lack of research and resulting theory describing their local economy and their public policies. This paper analyzes how SCCs try to develop and position themselves through the formulation of locational policies. By linking three different theoretical strands – the Regional Innovation System (RIS) approach, the concept of locational policies, and the regime perspective – this paper aims for constructing a framework to study the economic and political dynamics in SCCs.

The association between admission systolic blood pressure and mortality in significant traumatic brain injury: A multi-centre cohort study

INTRODUCTION Low systolic blood pressure (SBP) is an important secondary insult following traumatic brain injury (TBI), but its exact relationship with outcome is not well characterised. Although a SBP of <90mmHg represents the threshold for hypotension in consensus TBI treatment guidelines, recent studies suggest redefining hypotension at higher levels. This study therefore aimed to fully characterise the association between admission SBP and mortality to further inform resuscitation endpoints. METHODS We conducted a multicentre cohort study using data from the largest European trauma registry. Consecutive adult patients with AIS head scores >2 admitted directly to specialist neuroscience centres between 2005 and July 2012 were studied. Multilevel logistic regression models were developed to examine the association between admission SBP and 30 day inpatient mortality. Models were adjusted for confounders including age, severity of injury, and to account for differential quality of hospital care. RESULTS 5057 patients were included in complete case analyses. Admission SBP demonstrated a smooth u-shaped association with outcome in a bivariate analysis, with increasing mortality at both lower and higher values, and no evidence of any threshold effect. Adjusting for confounding slightly attenuated the association between mortality and SBP at levels <120mmHg, and abolished the relationship for higher SBP values. Case-mix adjusted odds of death were 1.5 times greater at <120mmHg, doubled at <100mmHg, tripled at <90mmHg, and six times greater at SBP<70mmHg, p<0.01. CONCLUSIONS These findings indicate that TBI studies should model SBP as a continuous variable and may suggest that current TBI treatment guidelines, using a cut-off for hypotension at SBP<90mmHg, should be reconsidered.

Chronic NSAID use and long-term decline of renal function in a prospective rheumatoid arthritis cohort study

OBJECTIVES Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may cause kidney damage. This study assessed the impact of prolonged NSAID exposure on renal function in a large rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patient cohort. METHODS Renal function was prospectively followed between 1996 and 2007 in 4101 RA patients with multilevel mixed models for longitudinal data over a mean period of 3.2 years. Among the 2739 'NSAID users' were 1290 patients treated with cyclooxygenase type 2 selective NSAIDs, while 1362 subjects were 'NSAID naive'. Primary outcome was the estimated glomerular filtration rate according to the Cockroft-Gault formula (eGFRCG), and secondary the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula equations and serum creatinine concentrations. In sensitivity analyses, NSAID dosing effects were compared for patients with NSAID registration in ≤/>50%, ≤/>80% or ≤/>90% of assessments. FINDINGS In patients with baseline eGFRCG >30 mL/min, eGFRCG evolved without significant differences over time between 'NSAID users' (mean change in eGFRCG -0.87 mL/min/year, 95% CI -1.15 to -0.59) and 'NSAID naive' (-0.67 mL/min/year, 95% CI -1.26 to -0.09, p=0.63). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusted for significant confounders age, sex, body mass index, arterial hypertension, heart disease and for other insignificant factors, NSAIDs were an independent predictor for accelerated renal function decline only in patients with advanced baseline renal impairment (eGFRCG <30 mL/min). Analyses with secondary outcomes and sensitivity analyses confirmed these results. CONCLUSIONS NSAIDs had no negative impact on renal function estimates but in patients with advanced renal impairment.

Direct Democracy: Protest Catalyst or Protest Alternative?

This paper presents the first investigation of whether direct democracy supplements or undermines the attendance of demonstrations as a form of protest behavior. A first approach assumes that direct democracy is associated with fewer protests, as they function as a valve that integrates voters’ opinions, preferences, and emotions into the political process. A competing hypothesis proposes a positive relationship between direct democracy and this unconventional form of political participation due to educative effects. Drawing on individual data from recent Swiss Electoral Studies, we apply multilevel analysis and estimate a hierarchical model of the effect of the presence as well as the use of direct democratic institutions on individual protest behavior. Our empirical findings suggest that the political opportunity of direct democracy is associated with a lower individual probability to attend demonstrations.

Political Depolarization in German Public Opinion, 1980–2010

Little is known about political polarization in German public opinion. This article offers an issue-based perspective and explores trends of opinion polarization in Germany. Public opinion polarization is conceptualized and measured as alignment of attitudes. Data from the German General Social Survey (1980 to 2010) comprise attitudes towards manifold issues, which are classified into several dimensions. This study estimates multilevel models that reveal general and issue- as well as dimension-specific levels and trends in attitude alignment for both the whole German population and sub-groups. It finds that public opinion polarization has decreased over the last three decades in Germany. In particular, highly educated and more politically interested people have become less polarized over time. However, polarization seems to have increased in attitudes regarding gender issues. These findings provide interesting contrasts to existing research on the American public.

Illegitimate tasks associated with higher cortisol levels among male employees when subjective health is relatively low: an intra-individual analysis

Objectives Illegitimate tasks refer to tasks that do not conform to what can appropriately be expected from an employee. Violating role expectations, they constitute “identity-stressors”, as one’s professional role tends to become part of one’s identity. The current study investigated the impact of illegitimate tasks on salivary cortisol. We analyzed data on an intra-individual level, that is, by examining fluctuations in illegitimate tasks and cortisol within individuals. Furthermore, we investigated the moderating role of perceived health, expecting that illegitimate tasks evoke stronger reactions when perceived health is relatively poor. Methods Illegitimate tasks, salivary cortisol, and perceived health were assessed in each of three waves (time lag: 6 months) in a sample of 104 male employees. Data were analyzed by multilevel analysis using group mean centering. Results Controlling for social stressors, work interruptions, and emotional stability, the experience of more illegitimate tasks was associated with increased cortisol release if personal health resources were low compared to one’s mean value of perceived health. Results cannot be explained by inter-individual differences. Conclusions This is the first study showing that illegitimate tasks predict a biological indicator of stress, thus confirming and extending previous research on illegitimate tasks. The moderating role of perceived health confirms its importance as a personal resource, implying augmented vulnerability when perceived health is below its usual value. It is plausible to assume that increased stress reactions due to relatively poor health may further weaken available personal resources. Both avoiding illegitimate tasks and restoring personal health seem to be crucial.

Does work stress make you shorter? An ambulatory field study of daily work stressors, job control, and spinal shrinkage

Body height decreases throughout the day due to fluid loss from the intervertebral disk. This study investigated whether spinal shrinkage was greater during workdays compared with nonwork days, whether daily work stressors were positively related to spinal shrinkage, and whether job control was negatively related to spinal shrinkage. In a consecutive 2-week ambulatory field study, including 39 office employees and 512 days of observation, spinal shrinkage was measured by a stadiometer, and calculated as body height in the morning minus body height in the evening. Physical activity was monitored throughout the 14 days by accelerometry. Daily work stressors, daily job control, biomechanical workload, and recreational activities after work were measured with daily surveys. Multilevel regression analyses showed that spinal disks shrank more during workdays than during nonwork days. After adjustment for sex, age, body weight, smoking status, biomechanical work strain, and time spent on physical and low-effort activities during the day, lower levels of daily job control significantly predicted increased spinal shrinkage. Findings add to knowledge on how work redesign that increases job control may possibly contribute to preserving intervertebral disk function and preventing occupational back pain.

An MEKC assay for the therapeutic drug monitoring of cefepime

The development of a robust assay based on MEKC for cefepime in human serum and plasma with internal quality assurance is reported. Sample preparation comprises protein precipitation in the presence of SDS at pH 4.5. This is a gentle approach for which decomposition of cefepime during sample handling is negligible. After hydrodynamic sample injection of the supernatant, analysis occurs in a phosphate/borate buffer at pH 9.1 with 75 mM SDS using normal polarity and analyte detection at 257 nm. The MEKC run time interval and throughput are about 5 min and seven samples per hour, respectively. The calibration range for cefepime is 1-60 μg/mL, with 1 μg/mL being the LOQ. The performance of the assay with multilevel internal calibration was assessed with calibration and control samples. The assay is shown to be simple, inexpensive, reproducible, and robust. It was applied to determine cefepime levels in the sera of critically ill patients and to assess the instability of cefepime in patient and control samples. Our data revealed that serum containing cefepime can be stored at -20°C for a short time, whereas for long-term storage, samples have to be kept at -70°C.

Inter- and intraindividual associations between volitional processes and daily smoking during a quit attempt

Background: The Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) assumes that volitional processes are important for effective behavioral change. This study examined the associations of volitional predictors and daily smoking in quitters at the inter- and intraindividual level. Method: Overall, 105 smokers completed daily electronic questionnaires 10 days before and 21 days after a self-set quit date, assessing intentions, self-efficacy, planning, action control and numbers of cigarettes smoked. Findings: Multilevel analyses showed that mean levels of volitional predictors across the 32 days were negatively associated with numbers of cigarettes smoked. Moreover, on days with higher intentions, self-efficacy, planning and action control than usual, less cigarettes were smoked. These effects were stronger after the quit date than before the quit date. Intentions and action control emerged as most powerful predictors at the intraindividual level. Discussion: Findings emphasize the importance of volitional processes at the intraindividual level in the context of quitting smoking.

Predicting daily smoking around a quit date : Volitional processes at the inter- and intraindividual level

Background: The health action process approach (hapa) is a well-established model in predicting health behavior and assumes that volitional processes are important for effective behavioral change. however, only few studies have so far tested associations on the intraindividual level. thus, this study examined the inter- and intraindividual associations between volitional predictors and daily smoking around a quit attempt. method: overall, 105 smokers completed daily electronic questionnaires 10 days before and 21 days after a self-set quit date, including measures of intentions, self-efficacy, planning, action control and numbers of cigarettes smoked. multilevel analysis was applied. findings: at the interindividual level, higher mean levels of volitional predictors across the 32 days were associated with less numbers of cigarettes smoked. negative associations emerged also at the intraindividual level, indicating that on days with higher intentions, self-efficacy, planning and action control than usual, less cigarettes were smoked. moreover, these effects were stronger after the quit date than before the quit date. intentions and action control emerged as most powerful predictors at the intraindividual level. discussion: findings confirm assumptions of the hapa and emphasize the importance of volitional processes at the inter- and intraindividual level in the context of quitting smoking.

Do Integration Policies Affect Immigrants' Voluntary Engagement? An Exploration at Switzerland's Subnational Level

This paper investigates whether integration policies influence immigrants' propensity to volunteer, the latter being an important element of immigrants' integration into the host society. By distinguishing different categories of integration policies at Switzerland's subnational level and applying a Bayesian multilevel approach, our results suggest varying policy effects: while policies fostering socio-structural rights enhance immigrants' propensity to volunteer, we observe a negative curvilinear relationship between cultural rights and obligations and immigrants' volunteerism implying that a combination of cultural entitlements and obligations is most conducive to immigrants' civic engagement.

Two decades of measuring environmental attitudes: A comparative analysis of 33 countries

This paper analyzes the development of environmental concern by using the three waves of the environmental modules of the International Social Survey Programme. First, we discuss the measurement of environmental concern and construct a ranking of countries according to the new 2010 results. Second, we analyze the determinants of environmental concern by employing multilevel models that take individual as well as context effects into account. Third, we explore the longitudinal aspect of the data at the macro level in order to uncover the causal relation between countries’ wealth and environmental concern. The results show that environmental concern is closely correlated with the wealth of the nations. However, environmental concern decreased in almost all nations slightly during the last two decades. The decline was lower in countries with improving economic conditions suggesting that economic growth helps to maintain higher levels of environmental concern.

Distinct coping strategies differentially predict urge levels and lapses in a smoking cessation attempt

This study analysed mechanisms through which stress-coping and temptation-coping strategies were associated with lapses. Furthermore, we explored whether distinct coping strategies differentially predicted reduced lapse risk, lower urge levels, or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses during the first week of an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. Participants were recruited via the internet and mass media in Switzerland. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) with mobile devices was used to assess urge levels and lapses. Online questionnaires were used to measure smoking behaviours and coping variables at baseline, as well as smoking behaviour at the three-month follow-up. The sample consisted of 243 individuals, aged 20 to 40, who reported 4199 observations. Findings of multilevel regression analyses show that coping was mainly associated with a reduced lapse risk and not with lower urge levels or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses. 'Calming down' and 'commitment to change' predicted a lower lapse risk and also a weaker relation between urge levels and lapses. 'Stimulus control' predicted a lower lapse risk and lower urge levels. Conversely, 'task-orientation' and 'risk assessment' were related to higher lapse risk and 'risk assessment' also to higher urge levels. Disengagement coping i.e. 'eating or shopping', 'distraction', and 'mobilising social support' did not affect lapse risk. Promising coping strategies during the initial stage of smoking cessation attempt are targeted directly at reducing the lapse risk and are characterised by engagement with the stressor or one's reactions towards the stressor and a focus on positive consequences instead of health risks.

The additive and interactive roles of aggression, prosocial behavior, and social preference in predicting resource control in young children

Distinguishing between physical and social aggression, this study examined whether the predictive effect of aggression on resource control a) is moderated by prosocial behavior and b) corresponds to a linear or a curvilinear trend. Moderating effects of children’s social preference among peers and child sex in this context were also tested. Based on a sample of 682 kindergarten children (348 girls; average age 72.7 months, 3.6 SD), multilevel regressions revealed additive linear effects of social preference and prosociality on resource control. Moderate (but not high) levels of social aggression also facilitated resource control for disliked children. There was no such threshold effect for well liked children, who increasingly controlled the resource the more socially aggressive they were. In contrast, physical aggression hampered resource control unless used very modestly. The present study has a number of positive features. First, the distinction between physical and social aggression improves our understanding of the relation between aggression and social competence and sketches a more differentiated picture of the role of different forms of aggression in resource control. Second, this study combines the concept of resource control with the concept of social preference and investigates curvilinear effects of aggression. Third, the direct observation of resource control in the Movie Viewer increases the internal validity of this study.