Financial Crises and International Portfolio Dynamics

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents, especially during financial crises. We show that gross capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. This is because when foreigners invest in a country domestic agents tend to invest abroad and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners tend to bring in more capital and domestic agents tend to invest more abroad. During crises, there is retrenchment, i.e. a reduction in capital inflows by foreigners and an increase in capital inflows by domestic agents. This is especially true during severe crises and during systemic crises. The evidence can shed light on the nature of shocks driving international capital flows. It seems to favor shocks that affect foreigners and domestic agents asymmetrically -e.g. sovereign risk and asymmetric information- over productivity shocks.

Evaporation from a shallow water table: Diurnal dynamics of measured and simulated water and heat regime at the vicinity of a drying sand surface

Accurate estimates of water losses by evaporation from shallow water tables are important for hydrological, agricultural, and climatic purposes. An experiment was conducted in a weighing lysimeter to characterize the diurnal dynamics of evaporation under natural conditions. Sampling revealed a completely dry surface sand layer after 5 days of evaporation. Its thickness was <1 cm early in the morning, increasing to reach 4?5 cm in the evening. This evidence points out fundamental limitations of the approaches that assume hydraulic connectivity from the water table up to the surface, as well as those that suppose monotonic drying when unsteady conditions prevail. The computed vapor phase diffusion rates from the apparent drying front based on Fick's law failed to reproduce the measured cumulative evaporation during the sampling day. We propose that two processes rule natural evaporation resulting from daily fluctuations of climatic variables: (i) evaporation of water, stored during nighttime due to redistribution and vapor condensation, directly into the atmosphere from the soil surface during the early morning hours, that could be simulated using a mass transfer approach and (ii) subsurface evaporation limited by Fickian diffusion, afterward. For the conditions prevailing during the sampling day, the amount of water stored at the vicinity of the soil surface was 0.3 mm and was depleted before 11:00. Combining evaporation from the surface before 11:00 and subsurface evaporation limited by Fickian diffusion after that time, the agreement between the estimated and measured cumulative evaporation was significantly improved.

Computational fluid dynamics of the right ventricular outflow tract and of the pulmonary artery: a bench model of flow dynamics.

OBJECTIVES: The reconstruction of the right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) with valved conduits remains a challenge. The reoperation rate at 5 years can be as high as 25% and depends on age, type of conduit, conduit diameter and principal heart malformation. The aim of this study is to provide a bench model with computer fluid dynamics to analyse the haemodynamics of the RVOT, pulmonary artery, its bifurcation, and left and right pulmonary arteries that in the future may serve as a tool for analysis and prediction of outcome following RVOT reconstruction. METHODS: Pressure, flow and diameter at the RVOT, pulmonary artery, bifurcation of the pulmonary artery, and left and right pulmonary arteries were measured in five normal pigs with a mean weight of 24.6 ± 0.89 kg. Data obtained were used for a 3D computer fluid-dynamics simulation of flow conditions, focusing on the pressure, flow and shear stress profile of the pulmonary trunk to the level of the left and right pulmonary arteries. RESULTS: Three inlet steady flow profiles were obtained at 0.2, 0.29 and 0.36 m/s that correspond to the flow rates of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 l/min flow at the RVOT. The flow velocity profile was constant at the RVOT down to the bifurcation and decreased at the left and right pulmonary arteries. In all three inlet velocity profiles, low sheer stress and low-velocity areas were detected along the left wall of the pulmonary artery, at the pulmonary artery bifurcation and at the ostia of both pulmonary arteries. CONCLUSIONS: This computed fluid real-time model provides us with a realistic picture of fluid dynamics in the pulmonary tract area. Deep shear stress areas correspond to a turbulent flow profile that is a predictive factor for the development of vessel wall arteriosclerosis. We believe that this bench model may be a useful tool for further evaluation of RVOT pathology following surgical reconstructions.

Inverse association between circulating vitamin D and mortality-dependent on sex and cause of death?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In various populations, vitamin D deficiency is associated with chronic diseases and mortality. We examined the association between concentration of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], a marker of vitamin D status, and all-cause as well as cause-specific mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 3404 participants of the general adult Swiss population, who were recruited between November 1988 and June 1989 and followed-up until the end of 2008. Circulating 25(OH)D was measured by protein-bound assay. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association between 25(OH)D concentration and all-cause and cause-specific mortality adjusting for sex, age, season, diet, nationality, blood pressure, and smoking status. Per 10 ng/mL increase in 25(OH)D concentration, all-cause mortality decreased by 20% (HR = 0.83; 95% CI 0.74-0.92). 25(OH)D concentration was inversely associated with cardiovascular mortality in women (HR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.46-1.00 per 10 ng/mL increase), but not in men (HR = 0.97; 95% CI 0.77-1.23). In contrast, 25(OH)D concentration was inversely associated with cancer mortality in men (HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.57-0.91 per 10 ng/mL increase), but not in women (HR = 1.14, 95% CI 0.93-1.39). Multivariate adjustment only slightly modified the 25(OH)D-mortality association. CONCLUSION: 25(OH)D was similarly inversely related to all-cause mortality in men and women. However, we observed opposite effects in women and men with respect to cardiovascular and cancer mortality.

Family dynamics in face of Alzheimer's in one of its members

Abstract OBJECTIVE To understand the family dynamics when there is a member in the residence with Alzheimer's disease. METHOD A study of qualitative approach, using the creative sensitive method (CSM), and with participation of two families who had a member with Alzheimer's disease at home. RESULTS Three categories emerged: Effects of Alzheimer's disease and the family dynamics; Development process of Alzheimer's disease and Coping strategies in face of the disease. CONCLUSION It was possible to know the manifestations and consequences of Alzheimer's disease in the family, such as mutual help, the mobilization of resources to activate memories of the past, spirituality and faith. There was also understanding of the structure of family dynamics.

Up-regulation of the levels of expression and function of a constitutively active mutant of the hamster alpha1B-adrenoceptor by ligands that act as inverse agonists.

The alpha1-adrenergic agonist phenylephrine stimulated phospholipase D (PLD) activity in Rat 1 fibroblasts transfected to express either the wild-type hamster alpha1B-adrenoceptor or a constitutively active mutant (CAM) form of this receptor. The EC50 for agonist stimulation of PLD activity was substantially lower at the CAM receptor than at the wild-type receptor as previously noted for phenylephrine stimulation of phosphoinositidase C activity. Sustained treatment of cells expressing the CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor with phentolamine resulted in a marked up-regulation in levels of this receptor with half-maximal effects produced within 24 h and with an EC50 of approx. 40 nM. Such an up-regulation could be produced with a range of other ligands generally viewed as alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists but equivalent treatment of cells expressing the wild-type alpha1B-adrenoceptor was unable to mimic these effects. After sustained treatment of the CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor expressing cells with phentolamine, basal PLD activity was increased and phenylephrine was now able to stimulate PLD activity to greater levels than in vehicle-treated CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor-expressing cells. The EC50 for phenylephrine stimulation of PLD activity was not altered, however, by phentolamine pretreatment and the associated up-regulation of the receptor. After phentolamine-induced up-regulation of basal PLD activity, a range of alpha1-antagonists were shown to possess the characteristics of inverse agonists of the CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor as they were able to substantially decrease the elevated basal PLD activity.

Social dynamics of Water Quality, 2004

Water fact sheet for Iowa Department of Natural Resources and the Geological Bureau.

The dynamics of US inflation: Can monetary policy explain the changes?

We investigate the relationship between monetary policy and inflation dynamics in theUS using a medium scale structural model. The specification is estimated with Bayesiantechniques and fits the data reasonably well. Policy shocks account for a part of the declinein inflation volatility; they have been less effective in triggering inflation responses overtime and qualitatively account for the rise and fall in the level of inflation. A number ofstructural parameter variations contribute to these patterns.

First impressions matter: Signalling as a source of policy dynamics

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary PolicyCommittee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasingconfidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in which voters signal theirhawkishness to observers better fits the data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns orpleasing colleagues. There is also no evidence of capture by industry. The papersuggests that policy-motivated reputation building may be important for explainingdynamics in experts' policy choices.

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

Rules or consequences? The role of ethical mindsets in moral dynamics

Recent research on the dynamics of moral behavior has documented two contrastingphenomena - moral consistency and moral balancing. Moral balancing refers to thephenomenon whereby behaving (un)ethically decreases the likelihood of doing so againat a later time. Moral consistency describes the opposite pattern - engaging in(un)ethical behavior increases the likelihood of doing so later on. Three studies supportthe hypothesis that individuals' ethical mindset (i.e., outcome-based versus rule-based)moderates the impact of an initial (un)ethical act on the likelihood of behaving ethicallyin a subsequent occasion. More specifically, an outcome-based mindset facilitates moralbalancing and a rule-based mindset facilitates moral consistency.