New insights into rebound effects : theory and empirical evidence

The main objective of the thesis is to seek insights into the theory, and provide empirical evidence of rebound effects. Rebound effects reduce the environmental benefits of environmental policies and household behaviour changes. In particular, win-win demand side measures, in the form of energy efficiency and household consumption pattern changes, are seen as ways for households and businesses to save money and the environment. However, these savings have environmental impacts when spent, which are known as rebound effects. This is an area that has been widely neglected by policy makers. This work extends the rebound effect literature in three important ways, (1) it incorporates the potential for variation of rebound effects with household income level, (2) it enables the isolation of direct and indirect effects for cases of energy efficient technology adoption, and examines the relationship between these two component effects, and (3) it expands the scope of rebound effect analysis to include government taxes and subsidies. MACROBUTTON HTMLDirect Using a case study approach it is found that the rebound effect from household consumption pattern changes targeted at electricity is between 5 and 10%. For consumption pattern changes with reduced vehicle fuel use, the rebound effect is in the order of 20 to 30%. Higher income households in general are found to have a lower total rebound effect; however the indirect effect becomes relatively more significant at higher household income levels. In the win-lose case of domestic photovoltaic electricity generation, it is demonstrated that negative rebound effects can occur, which can potentially amplify the environmental benefits of this action. The rebound effect from a carbon tax, which occurs due to the re-spending of raised revenues, was found to be in the range of 11-32%. Taxes and transfers between households of different income levels also have environmental implications. For example, a more progressive tax structure, with increased low income welfare payments is likely to increase greenhouse gas emissions. Subsidies aimed at encouraging environmentally friendly consumption habits are also subject to rebound effects, as they constitute a substitution of government expenditure for household expenditure. For policy makers, these findings point to the need to incorporate rebound effects in the environmental policy evaluation process.’

The role of product involvement in e-service evaluations

This paper provides conceptual and empirical insights into consumers’ evaluations of online services and their consequent behavioural intentions. We show that behavioural intentions in online contexts are driven primarily by two factors, namely online service satisfaction and perceived service quality. Perceived sacrifice and service quality are found to have an indirect effect on online service satisfaction through their influences on perceived value associated with the online service. In addition, we examine the moderating effects of product involvement and discuss the implications of our research findings.

Response efficacy : the key to minimizing rejection and maximizing acceptance of emotion-based anti-speeding messages

This study sought to improve understanding of the persuasive process of emotion-based appeals not only in relation to negative, fear-based appeals but also for appeals based upon positive emotions. In particular, the study investigated whether response efficacy, as a cognitive construct, mediated outcome measures of message effectiveness in terms of both acceptance and rejection of negative and positive emotion-based messages. Licensed drivers (N = 406) participated via the completion of an on-line survey. Within the survey, participants received either a negative (fear-based) appeal or one of the two possible positive appeals (pride or humor-based). Overall, the study's findings confirmed the importance of emotional and cognitive components of persuasive health messages and identified response efficacy as a key cognitive construct influencing the effectiveness of not only fear-based messages but also positive emotion-based messages. Interestingly, however, the results suggested that response efficacy's influence on message effectiveness may differ for positive and negative emotion-based appeals such that significant indirect (and mediational) effects were found with both acceptance and rejection of the positive appeals yet only with rejection of the fear-based appeal. As such, the study's findings provide an important extension to extant literature and may inform future advertising message design.

Environmental monitoring of airborne nanoparticles

The aim of this work was to review the existing instrumental methods to monitor airborne nanoparticle in different types of indoor and outdoor environments in order to detect their presence and to characterise their properties. Firstly the terminology and definitions used in this field are discussed, which is followed by a review of the methods to measure particle physical characteristics including number concentration, size distribution and surface area. An extensive discussion is provided on the direct methods for particle elemental composition measurements, as well as on indirect methods providing information on particle volatility and solubility, and thus in turn on volatile and semivolatile compounds of which the particle is composed. A brief summary of broader considerations related to nanoparticle monitoring in different environments concludes the paper.

A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

Increasing stochastic perturbations enhances acquisition and learning of complex sport movements

Traditionally, the aquisition of skills and sport movement has been characterised by numerous repetitions of presumed model movement pattern to be acquired by learners. This approach has been questioned by research identifying the presence of individualised movement patterns and the low probability of occurrence of two identical movements within and between individuals. In contrast, the differential learning approach claims advantage for incurring variability in the learning process by adding stochastic perturbations during practice. These ideas are exemplified by data from a high jump experiment which compared the effectiveness of classical and a differential training approach with pre-post test design. Results showed clear advantages for the group with additional stochastic perturbation during the aquisition phase in comparison to classically trained athletes. Analogies to similar phenomenological effects in the neurobiological literature are discussed.

Too great expectations?

Teachers have always been charged with the task of turning out the next generation of citizens—educated, healthy in mind, and healthy in body. The central question here is: how far should this responsibility extend? Just how much can we reasonably expect teachers to be responsible for? And just what should schools be responsible for? Obviously, teachers ought to be responsible for the fundamentals of learning, but should they be held accountable for what the children eat, or how they choose to behave, or for every single risk, direct or indirect, that could conceivably occur within the school grounds? These are precisely the kinds of expectation that have become part of educational life. Bit by bit, new forms of responsibility are being added to the site of the school and, more specifically, to the professional life of the teacher. The intention here is not necessarily to challenge any of these diverse changes, but rather to express concern about their cumulative effect on the ability of the school to do its primary job effectively.

Strains as Mediators between Job Characteristics and Work-Related Outcomes in Police Officers

The relationship between job characteristics (e.g., job demands, social support) and work-related outcomes (e.g., turnover intentions, job performance) is assumed to be mediated by strains (e.g., work-related well-being, psychological strain). However, evidence suggests this association will be stronger for work-related strains than broader measures of overall psychological well-being. The primary aim of this study was to identify whether work and non-work related strains differ significantly in their ability to mediate between job characteristics and work-related outcomes. Perceptions of job characteristics, strain, turnover intentions and job performance were collected via a self-report survey from 2,588 Australian police officers. All job characteristics (job demands, job control, supervisor support and colleague support) were significant predictors of both job performance and turnover intentions, with the exception of job demands, which was not a significant predictor of turnover intentions. Both work and non-work related strains were significant predictors of turnover intentions and job performance. Strains were collectively significant in mediating between job characteristics and work-related outcomes, except in the case of job demands and job performance. The indirect effects of job characteristics on work-related outcomes were primarily through officers’ work-related enthusiasm. The relative importance of work-related enthusiasm in mediating between job characteristics and work-related outcomes offers some support for previous research suggesting stronger associations between work-related constructs. Future research should examine whether there are substantial differences in the explanatory power of work-related enthusiasm and a popular related construct, work engagement.

Simultaneous kinetic-spectrophotometric determination of maltol and ethyl maltol in food samples by using chemometrics

A fast and accurate procedure has been researched and developed for the simultaneous determination of maltol and ethyl maltol, based on their reaction with iron(III) in the presence of o-phenanthroline in sulfuric acid medium. This reaction was the basis for an indirect kinetic spectrophotometric method, which followed the development of the pink ferroin product (λmax = 524 nm). The kinetic data were collected in the 370–900 nm range over 0–30 s. The optimized method indicates that individual analytes followed Beer’s law in the concentration range of 4.0–76.0 mg L−1 for both maltol and ethyl maltol. The LOD values of 1.6 mg L−1 for maltol and 1.4 mg L−1 for ethyl maltol agree well with those obtained by the alternative high performance liquid chromatography with ultraviolet detection (HPLC-UV). Three chemometrics methods, principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS) and principal component analysis–radial basis function–artificial neural networks (PC–RBF–ANN), were used to resolve the measured data with small kinetic differences between the two analytes as reflected by the development of the pink ferroin product. All three performed satisfactorily in the case of the synthetic verification samples, and in their application for the prediction of the analytes in several food products. The figures of merit for the analytes based on the multivariate models agreed well with those from the alternative HPLC-UV method involving the same samples.

Recruiting older adults to health research studies : a systematic review

Objective: To provide a systematic review of papers comparing the effectiveness of different strategies to recruit older adults (aged 50 years and over) to participate in health research studies, to guide successful recruitment in future research. Methods: Four major databases were searched for papers published between 1995 and 2008 with: target group aged 50 years or over; participants allocated to receive one of two or more recruitment strategies; and an outcome measure of response rate or enrolment in study. Results: Twelve papers were included in the review. Conclusion: For postal questionnaires, recruitment strategies used with older adults had comparable outcomes to those used to recruit from the general population. For other types of studies, strategies involving face-to-face contact may be more effective than indirect methods, but this needs to be balanced against feasibility. Overall, little evidence on the topic exists and more rigorous investigation is necessary.

Determining the psychosocial predictors of living, living-related, and posthumous organ donation

The worldwide organ shortage occurs despite people’s positive organ donation attitudes. The discrepancy between attitudes and behaviour is evident in Australia particularly, with widespread public support for organ donation but low donation and communication rates. This problem is compounded further by the paucity of theoretically based research to improve our understanding of people’s organ donation decisions. This program of research contributes to our knowledge of individual decision making processes for three aspects of organ donation: (1) posthumous (upon death) donation, (2) living donation (to a known and unknown recipient), and (3) providing consent for donation by communicating donation wishes on an organ donor consent register (registering) and discussing the donation decision with significant others (discussing). The research program used extended versions of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and the Prototype/Willingness Model (PWM), incorporating additional influences (moral norm, self-identity, organ recipient prototypes), to explicate the relationship between people’s positive attitudes and low rates of organ donation behaviours. Adopting the TPB and PWM (and their extensions) as a theoretical basis overcomes several key limitations of the extant organ donation literature including the often atheoretical nature of organ donation research, thefocus on individual difference factors to construct organ donor profiles and the omission of important psychosocial influences (e.g., control perceptions, moral values) that may impact on people’s decision-making in this context. In addition, the use of the TPB and PWM adds further to our understanding of the decision making process for communicating organ donation wishes. Specifically, the extent to which people’s registering and discussing decisions may be explained by a reasoned and/or a reactive decision making pathway is examined (Stage 3) with the novel application of the TPB augmented with the social reaction pathway in the PWM. This program of research was conducted in three discrete stages: a qualitative stage (Stage 1), a quantitative stage with extended models (Stage 2), and a quantitative stage with augmented models (Stage 3). The findings of the research program are reported in nine papers which are presented according to the three aspects of organ donation examined (posthumous donation, living donation, and providing consent for donation by registering or discussing the donation preference). Stage One of the research program comprised qualitative focus groups/interviews with university students and community members (N = 54) (Papers 1 and 2). Drawing broadly on the TPB framework (Paper 1), content analysed responses revealed people’s commonly held beliefs about the advantages and disadvantages (e.g., prolonging/saving life), important people or groups (e.g., family), and barriers and motivators (e.g., a family’s objection to donation), related to living and posthumous organ donation. Guided by a PWM perspective, Paper Two identified people’s commonly held perceptions of organ donors (e.g., altruistic and giving), non-donors (e.g., self-absorbed and unaware), and transplant recipients (e.g., unfortunate, and in some cases responsible/blameworthy for their predicament). Stage Two encompassed quantitative examinations of people’s decision makingfor living (Papers 3 and 4) and posthumous (Paper 5) organ donation, and for registering and discussing donation wishes (Papers 6 to 8) to test extensions to both the TPB and PWM. Comparisons of health students’ (N = 487) motivations and willingness for living related and anonymous donation (Paper 3) revealed that a person’s donor identity, attitude, past blood donation, and knowing a posthumous donor were four common determinants of willingness, with the results highlighting students’ identification as a living donor as an important motive. An extended PWM is presented in Papers Four and Five. University students’ (N = 284) willingness for living related and anonymous donation was tested in Paper Four with attitude, subjective norm, donor prototype similarity, and moral norm (but not donor prototype favourability) predicting students’ willingness to donate organs in both living situations. Students’ and community members’ (N = 471) posthumous organ donation willingness was assessed in Paper Five with attitude, subjective norm, past behaviour, moral norm, self-identity, and prior blood donation all significantly directly predicting posthumous donation willingness, with only an indirect role for organ donor prototype evaluations. The results of two studies examining people’s decisions to register and/or discuss their organ donation wishes are reported in Paper Six. People’s (N = 24) commonly held beliefs about communicating their organ donation wishes were explored initially in a TPB based qualitative elicitation study. The TPB belief determinants of intentions to register and discuss the donation preference were then assessed for people who had not previously communicated their donation wishes (N = 123). Behavioural and normative beliefs were important determinants of registering and discussing intentions; however, control beliefs influenced people’s registering intentions only. Paper Seven represented the first empirical test of the role of organ transplant recipient prototypes (i.e., perceptions of organ transplant recipients) in people’s (N = 465) decisions to register consent for organ donation. Two factors, Substance Use and Responsibility, were identified and Responsibility predicted people’s organ donor registration status. Results demonstrated that unregistered respondents were the most likely to evaluate transplant recipients negatively. Paper Eight established the role of organ donor prototype evaluations, within an extended TPB model, in predicting students’ and community members’ registering (n = 359) and discussing (n = 282) decisions. Results supported the utility of an extended TPB and suggested a role for donor prototype evaluations in predicting people’s discussing intentions only. Strong intentions to discuss donation wishes increased the likelihood that respondents reported discussing their decision 1-month later. Stage Three of the research program comprised an examination of augmented models (Paper 9). A test of the TPB augmented with elements from the social reaction pathway in the PWM, and extensions to these models was conducted to explore whether people’s registering (N = 339) and discussing (N = 315) decisions are explained via a reasoned (intention) and/or social reaction (willingness) pathway. Results suggested that people’s decisions to communicate their organ donation wishes may be better explained via the reasoned pathway, particularly for registering consent; however, discussing also involves reactive elements. Overall, the current research program represents an important step toward clarifying the relationship between people’s positive organ donation attitudes but low rates of organ donation and communication behaviours. Support has been demonstrated for the use of extensions to two complementary theories, the TPB and PWM, which can inform future research aiming to explicate further the organ donation attitude-behaviour relationship. The focus on a range of organ donation behaviours enables the identification of key targets for future interventions encouraging people’s posthumous and living donation decisions, and communication of their organ donation preference.

Low-fat oxidation may be a factor in obesity among men with schizophrenia

Objective: Obesity associated with atypical antipsychotic medications is an important clinical issue for people with schizophrenia. The purpose of this project was to determine whether there were any differences in resting energy expenditure (REE) and respiratory quotient (RQ) between men with schizophrenia and controls. Method: Thirty-one men with schizophrenia were individually matched for age and relative body weight with healthy, sedentary controls. Deuterium dilution was used to determine total body water and subsequently fat-free mass (FFM). Indirect calorimetry using a Deltatrac metabolic cart was used to determine REE and RQ. Results: When corrected for FFM, there was no significant difference in REE between the groups. However, fasting RQ was significantly higher in the men with schizophrenia than the controls. Conclusion: Men with schizophrenia oxidised proportionally less fat and more carbohydrate under resting conditions than healthy controls. These differences in substrate utilisation at rest may be an important consideration in obesity in this clinical group.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

The effect of Amblyopia on motor and psychosocial skills in children

Background/Aims: In an investigation of the functional impact of amblyopia on children, the fine motor skills, perceived self-esteem and eye movements of amblyopic children were compared with that of age-matched controls. The influence of amblyogenic condition or treatment factors that might predict any decrement in outcome measures was investigated. The relationship between indirect measures of eye movements that are used clinically and eye movement characteristics recorded during reading was examined and the relevance of proficiency in fine motor skills to performance on standardised educational tests was explored in a sub-group of the control children. Methods: Children with amblyopia (n=82; age 8.2 ± 1.3 years) from differing causes (infantile esotropia n=17, acquired strabismus n=28, anisometropia n=15, mixed n=13 and deprivation n=9), and a control group of children (n=106; age 9.5 ± 1.2 years) participated in this study. Measures of visual function included monocular logMAR visual acuity (VA) and stereopsis assessed with the Randot Preschool Stereoacuity test, while fine motor skills were measured using the Visual-Motor Control (VMC) and Upper Limb Speed and Dexterity (ULSD) subtests of the Brunicks-Oseretsky Test of Motor Proficiency. Perceived self esteem was assessed for those children from grade 3 school level with the Harter Self Perception Profile for Children and for those in younger grades (preschool to grade 2) with the Pictorial Scale of Perceived Competence and Acceptance for Young Children. A clinical measure of eye movements was made with the Developmental Eye Movement (DEM) test for those children aged eight years and above. For appropriate case-control comparison of data, the results from amblyopic children were compared with age-matched sub-samples drawn from the group of children with normal vision who completed the tests. Eye movements during reading for comprehension were recorded by the Visagraph infra-red recording system and results of standardised tests of educational performance were also obtained for a sub-set of the control group. Results Amblyopic children (n=82; age 8.2 ± 1.7 years) performed significantly poorer than age-matched control children (n=37; age 8.3 ± 1.3 years) on 9 of 16 fine motor skills sub-items and for the overall age-standardised scores for both VMC and ULSD items (p<0.05); differences were most evident on timed manual dexterity tasks. The underlying aetiology of amblyopia and level of stereoacuity significantly affected fine motor skill performance on both items. However, when examined in a multiple regression model that took into account the inter-correlation between visual characteristics, poorer fine motor skills performance was only associated with strabismus (F1,75 = 5.428; p =0. 022), and not with the level of stereoacuity, refractive error or visual acuity in either eye. Amblyopic children from grade 3 school level and above (n=47; age 9.2 ± 1.3 years), particularly those with acquired strabismus, had significantly lower social acceptance scores than age-matched control children (n=52; age 9.4 ± 0.5 years) (F(5,93) = 3.14; p = 0.012). However, the scores of the amblyopic children were not significantly different to controls for other areas related to self-esteem, including scholastic competence, physical appearance, athletic competence, behavioural conduct and global self worth. A lower social acceptance score was independently associated with a history of treatment with patching but not with a history of strabismus or wearing glasses. Amblyopic children from pre-school to grade 2 school level (n=29; age = 6.6 ± 0.6 years) had similar self-perception scores to their age-matched peers (n=20; age = 6.4 ± 0.5 years). There were no significant differences between the amblyopic (n=39; age 9.1 ± 0.9 years) and age-matched control (n = 42; age = 9.3 ± 0.38 years) groups for any of the DEM outcome measures (Vertical Time, Horizontal Time, Number of Errors and Ratio (Horizontal time/Vertical time)). Performance on the DEM did not significantly relate to measures of VA in either eye, level of binocular function, history of strabismus or refractive error. Developmental Eye Movement test outcome measures Horizontal Time and Vertical Time were significantly correlated with reading rates measured by the Visagraph for both reading for comprehension and naming numbers (r>0.5). Some moderate correlations were also seen between the DEM Ratio and word reading rates as recorded by Visagraph (r=0.37). In children with normal vision, academic scores in mathematics, spelling and reading were associated with measures of fine motor skills. Strongest effect sizes were seen with the timed manual dexterity domain, Upper Limb Speed and Dexterity. Conclusions Amblyopia may have a negative impact on a child’s fine motor skills and an older child’s sense of acceptance by their peers may be influenced by treatment that includes eye patching. Clinical measures of eye movements were not affected in amblyopic children. A number of the outcome measures of the DEM are associated with objective recordings of reading rates, supporting its clinical use for identification of children with slower reading rates. In children with normal vision, proficiency on clinical measures of fine motor skill are associated with outcomes on standardised measures of educational performance. Scores on timed manual dexterity tasks had the strongest association with educational performance. Collectively, the results of this study indicate that, in addition to the reduction in visual acuity and binocular function that define the condition, amblyopes have functional impairment in childhood development skills that underlie proficiency in everyday activities. The study provides support for strategies aimed at early identification and remediation of amblyopia and the co-morbidities that arise from abnormal visual neurodevelopment.