INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Transmedia Storytelling: Implicit Consumers, Narrative Worlds, and Branding in Contemporary Media Production

Many concepts have been developed to describe the convergence of media, languages, and formats in contemporary media systems. This article is a theoretical reflection on “transmedia storytelling” from a perspective that integrates semiotics and narratology in the context of media studies. After dealing with the conceptual chaos around transmedia storytelling, the article analyzes how these new multimodal narrative structures create different implicit consumers and construct a narrative world. The analysis includes a description of the multimedia textual structure created around the Fox television series 24. Finally, the article analyzes transmedia storytelling from the perspective of a semiotics of branding.

Differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with the Five-Factor and HEXACO models of personality.

Recent literature evidences differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with constructs in the interpersonal domain. In line with this research, we examine the respective relationships of each just-world belief with the Five-Factor and the HEXACO models of personality in one representative sample of the working population of Switzerland and one sample of the general US population, respectively. One suppressor effect was observed in both samples: Neuroticism and emotionality was positively associated with general just-world belief, but only after controlling for personal just-world belief. In addition, agreeableness was positively and honesty-humility negatively associated with general just-world belief but unrelated to personal just-world belief. Conscientiousness was consistently unrelated to any of the just-world belief and extraversion and openness to experience revealed unstable coefficients across studies. We discuss these points in light of just-world theory and their implications for future research taking both dimensions into account.

Contrasting growth responses in lamina and petiole during neighbor detection depend on differential auxin responsiveness rather than different auxin levels.

Foliar shade triggers rapid growth of specific structures that facilitate access of the plant to direct sunlight. In leaves of many plant species, this growth response is complex because, although shade triggers the elongation of petioles, it reduces the growth of the lamina. How the same external cue leads to these contrasting growth responses in different parts of the leaf is not understood. Using mutant analysis, pharmacological treatment and gene expression analyses, we investigated the role of PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTOR7 (PIF7) and the growth-promoting hormone auxin in these contrasting leaf growth responses. Both petiole elongation and lamina growth reduction are dependent on PIF7. The induction of auxin production is both necessary and sufficient to induce opposite growth responses in petioles vs lamina. However, these contrasting growth responses are not caused by different auxin concentrations in the two leaf parts. Our work suggests that a transient increase in auxin levels triggers tissue-specific growth responses in different leaf parts. We provide evidence suggesting that this may be caused by the different sensitivity to auxin in the petiole vs the blade and by tissue-specific gene expression.

Ultra-high-resolution 3D imaging of atherosclerosis in mice with synchrotron differential phase contrast: a proof of concept study.

The goal of this study was to investigate the performance of 3D synchrotron differential phase contrast (DPC) imaging for the visualization of both macroscopic and microscopic aspects of atherosclerosis in the mouse vasculature ex vivo. The hearts and aortas of 2 atherosclerotic and 2 wild-type control mice were scanned with DPC imaging with an isotropic resolution of 15 μm. The coronary artery vessel walls were segmented in the DPC datasets to assess their thickness, and histological staining was performed at the level of atherosclerotic plaques. The DPC imaging allowed for the visualization of complex structures such as the coronary arteries and their branches, the thin fibrous cap of atherosclerotic plaques as well as the chordae tendineae. The coronary vessel wall thickness ranged from 37.4 ± 5.6 μm in proximal coronary arteries to 13.6 ± 3.3 μm in distal branches. No consistent differences in coronary vessel wall thickness were detected between the wild-type and atherosclerotic hearts in this proof-of-concept study, although the standard deviation in the atherosclerotic mice was higher in most segments, consistent with the observation of occasional focal vessel wall thickening. Overall, DPC imaging of the cardiovascular system of the mice allowed for a simultaneous detailed 3D morphological assessment of both large structures and microscopic details.

Myofascial pain associated to trigger points: A literature review. Part 2: Differential diagnosis and treatment

During the last decades the advance in knowledge of myofascial pain has been constant in the medical and dental community. However, although several aspects have been clarified in relation to its epidemiology, clinical characteristics and etiopathogenesis, many uncertainties remain. Many clinical conditions are included in the differential diagnosis of myofascial pain associated to trigger points. A good anamnesis and clinical exploration is thus required in order to ensure correct diagnosis and treatment. Among the numerous treatments used in application to trigger points, the spray-and-stretch technique and direct injection targeted to such trigger points have been found to be the most effective options. In chronic cases, psychosocial intervention is required, due to the high incidence of mood disorders and/or anxiety observed in these patients, who in turn present a poorer prognosis. This underscores the importance of early diagnosis and treatment.

Clinico-Pathological discrepancies in the Diagnosis of Causes of Maternal Death in Sub-Saharan Africa: Retrospective Analysis

Background Maternal mortality is a major public-health problem in developing countries. Extreme differences in maternal mortality rates between developed and developing countries indicate that most of these deaths are preventable. Most information on the causes of maternal death in these areas is based on clinical records and verbal autopsies. Clinical diagnostic errors may play a significant role in this problem and might also have major implications for the evaluation of current estimations of causes of maternal death. Methods and Findings A retrospective analysis of clinico-pathologic correlation was carried out, using necropsy as the gold standard for diagnosis. All maternal autopsies (n ¼ 139) during the period from October 2002 to December 2004 at the Maputo Central Hospital, Mozambique were included and major diagnostic discrepancies were analyzed (i.e., those involving the cause of death). Major diagnostic errors were detected in 56 (40.3%) maternal deaths. A high rate of false negative diagnoses was observed for infectious diseases, which showed sensitivities under 50%: HIV/AIDS-related conditions (33.3%), pyogenic bronchopneumonia (35.3%), pyogenic meningitis (40.0%), and puerperal septicemia (50.0%). Eclampsia, was the main source of false positive diagnoses, showing a low predictive positive value (42.9%). Conclusions Clinico-pathological discrepancies may have a significant impact on maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and question the validity of reports based on clinical data or verbal autopsies. Increasing clinical awareness of the impact of obstetric and nonobstetric infections with their inclusion in the differential diagnosis, together with a thorough evaluation of cases clinically thought to be eclampsia, could have a significant impact on the reduction of maternal mortality.

From Educational Segregation to Transformative Inclusion

Recent studies conducted in Europe using communicative methodology highlight that different ways of grouping students has a direct effect on their academic output. This article analyzes how said research methodology identifies and analyzes those student groupings that provide greater academic success and improve classroom coexistence at Spanish educational centers. Said methodology entails all of the research participants researchers, teachers, families, and students reflecting on the consequences of streaming, mixture, and inclusion for student academic achievement. Following this, our conclusions are compared with the policies and educational practices implemented in Spanish schools, which are not based on scientific knowledge and do not usually lead to academic success. Finally, recommendations are presented for future educational policies with the aim of providing an alternative for teachers and educational managers that would substantially improve student academic success.

Differential patterns of functional and structural plasticity within and between inferior frontal gyri support training-induced improvements in inhibitory control proficiency.

Ample evidence indicates that inhibitory control (IC), a key executive component referring to the ability to suppress cognitive or motor processes, relies on a right-lateralized fronto-basal brain network. However, whether and how IC can be improved with training and the underlying neuroplastic mechanisms remains largely unresolved. We used functional and structural magnetic resonance imaging to measure the effects of 2 weeks of training with a Go/NoGo task specifically designed to improve frontal top-down IC mechanisms. The training-induced behavioral improvements were accompanied by a decrease in neural activity to inhibition trials within the right pars opercularis and triangularis, and in the left pars orbitalis of the inferior frontal gyri. Analyses of changes in brain anatomy induced by the IC training revealed increases in grey matter volume in the right pars orbitalis and modulations of white matter microstructure in the right pars triangularis. The task-specificity of the effects of training was confirmed by an absence of change in neural activity to a control working memory task. Our combined anatomical and functional findings indicate that differential patterns of functional and structural plasticity between and within inferior frontal gyri enhanced the speed of top-down inhibition processes and in turn IC proficiency. The results suggest that training-based interventions might help overcoming the anatomic and functional deficits of inferior frontal gyri manifesting in inhibition-related clinical conditions. More generally, we demonstrate how multimodal neuroimaging investigations of training-induced neuroplasticity enable revealing novel anatomo-functional dissociations within frontal executive brain networks. Hum Brain Mapp 36:2527-2543, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Clinico-Pathological discrepancies in the Diagnosis of Causes of Maternal Death in Sub-Saharan Africa: Retrospective Analysis

Background Maternal mortality is a major public-health problem in developing countries. Extreme differences in maternal mortality rates between developed and developing countries indicate that most of these deaths are preventable. Most information on the causes of maternal death in these areas is based on clinical records and verbal autopsies. Clinical diagnostic errors may play a significant role in this problem and might also have major implications for the evaluation of current estimations of causes of maternal death. Methods and Findings A retrospective analysis of clinico-pathologic correlation was carried out, using necropsy as the gold standard for diagnosis. All maternal autopsies (n ¼ 139) during the period from October 2002 to December 2004 at the Maputo Central Hospital, Mozambique were included and major diagnostic discrepancies were analyzed (i.e., those involving the cause of death). Major diagnostic errors were detected in 56 (40.3%) maternal deaths. A high rate of false negative diagnoses was observed for infectious diseases, which showed sensitivities under 50%: HIV/AIDS-related conditions (33.3%), pyogenic bronchopneumonia (35.3%), pyogenic meningitis (40.0%), and puerperal septicemia (50.0%). Eclampsia, was the main source of false positive diagnoses, showing a low predictive positive value (42.9%). Conclusions Clinico-pathological discrepancies may have a significant impact on maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and question the validity of reports based on clinical data or verbal autopsies. Increasing clinical awareness of the impact of obstetric and nonobstetric infections with their inclusion in the differential diagnosis, together with a thorough evaluation of cases clinically thought to be eclampsia, could have a significant impact on the reduction of maternal mortality.

How differential management strategies affect Ips typographus L. dispersal

Bark beetle outbreaks have a devastating effect on economically important forests worldwide, thus requiring extensive application of management control strategies. The presence of unmanaged protected areas in close proximity to managed forests can instigate concerns that bark beetle infestations may spread from unmanaged into managed stands. We studied the impact of differential management of forest stands on the dispersal dynamics of the European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, making use of inferential population genetics on mitochondrial and nuclear genomes. Bayesian inferences of migration rates and a most parsimonious dispersal tree show that outgoing gene flow was consistently higher from managed to unmanaged areas. Reason for that is likely the thorough removal of potential breeding material in managed forests and thus the dispersal of the base stock beetles from these areas to unmanaged areas where breeding material is available. Our study suggests that the potential threat posed by unmanaged to managed forests in regard to I. typographus infestation needs to be carefully re-considered.