Testing solar forcing of pervasive Holocene climate cycles

The temporal and spatial extent of Holocene climate change is an area of considerable uncertainty, with solar forcing recently proposed to be the origin of cycles identified in the North Atlantic region. To address these issues we have developed an annually resolved record of changes in Irish bog tree populations over the last 7468 years which, together with radiocarbon-dated bog and lake-edge populations, extend the dataset back to 9000 yr ago. The Irish trees underpin the internationally accepted radiocarbon calibration curve, used to derive a proxy of solar activity, and allow us to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change. Tree populations and age structures provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in Holocene surface moisture, with a dominant cyclicity of 800 yr, similar to marine cycles in the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. The cycles, however, are not coherent with changes in solar activity (both being on the same absolute timescale), indicating that Holocene North Atlantic climate variability at the millennial and centennial scale is not driven by a linear response to changes in solar activity.

Holocene climate change and past Irish societal response

The extent to which North Atlantic Holocene climatic perturbations influenced past human societies is an area of considerable uncertainty and fierce debate. Ireland is ideally placed to help resolve this issue, being occupied for over 9000 yr and located on the eastern Atlantic seaboard, a region dominated by westerly airflow. Irish bog and lake tree populations provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in surface moisture through the Holocene similar to cycles recorded in the marine realm of the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. To test for human response to these cycles we summed the probabilities of 465 radiocarbon ages obtained from Irish archaeological contexts and observe enhanced archaeological visibility during periods of sustained wet conditions. These results suggest either increasing density of human populations in key, often defensive locations, and/or the development of subsistence strategies to overcome changing conditions, the latter recently proposed as a significant factor in avoiding societal collapse. Regardless, we demonstrate environmental change is a significantly more important factor in influencing human activity in the landscape than has hitherto been acknowledged.

A Holocene record of human induced and natural environmental change from Lake Forsyth (Te Wairewa), New Zealand

A 1.2 m sediment core from Lake Forsyth, Canterbury, New Zealand, records the development of the catchment/lake system over the last 7000 years, and its response to anthropogenic disturbance following European settlement c. 1840 AD. Pollen was used to reconstruct catchment vegetation history, while foraminifera, chironomids, Trichoptera, and the abundance of Pediastrum simplex colonies were used to infer past environmental conditions within the lake. The basal 30 cm of core records the transition of the Lake Forsyth Basin from a tidal embayment to a brackish coastal lake. Timing of closure of the lake mouth could not be accurately determined, but it appears that Lake Forsyth had stabilised as a slightly brackish, oligo mesotrophic shallow lake by about 500 years BP. Major deforestation occurred on Banks Peninsula between 1860 AD and 1890 AD. This deforestation is marked by the rapid decline in the main canopy trees (Prumnopitys taxifolia (matai) and Podocarpus totara/hallii (totara/mountain totara), an increase in charcoal, and the appearance of grasses. At around 1895 AD, pine appears in the record while a willow (Salix spp.) appears somewhat later. Redundancy analysis (RDA) of the pollen and aquatic species data revealed a significant relationship between regional vegetation and the abundance of aquatic taxa, with the percentage if disturbance pollen explaining most (14.8%) of the constrained variation in the aquatic species data. Principle components analysis (PCA) of aquatic species data revealed that the most significant period of rapid biological change in the lakes history corresponded to the main period of human disturbance in the catchment. Deforestation led to increased sediment and nutrient input into the lake which was accompanied by a major reduction in salinity. These changes are inferred from the appearance and proliferation of freshwater algae (Pediastrum simplex), an increase in abundance and diversity of chironomids, and the abundance of cases and remains from the larvae of the caddisfly, Oecetis unicolor. Eutrophication accompanied by increasing salinity of the lake is inferred from a significant peak and then decline of P. simplex, and a reduction in the abundance and diversity of aquatic invertebrates. The artificial opening of the lake to the Pacific Ocean, which began in the late 1800s, is the likely cause of the recent increase in salinity. An increase in salinity may have also encouraged blooms of the halotolerant and hepatotoxic cyanobacteria Nodularia spumigena.

Solar forcing of climate change during the mid-Holocene: indications from raised bogs in the Netherlands.

Two cores of mid-Holocene raised-bog deposits from the Netherlands were 14C wiggle-match dated at high precision. Changes in local moisture conditions were inferred from the changing species composition of consecutive series of macrofossil samples. Several wet-shifts were inferred, and these were often coeval with major rises in the D14C archive (probably caused by major declines in solar activity). The use of D14C as a proxy for changes in solar activity is validated. This paper adds to the increasing body of evidence that solar variability forced climatic changes during the Holocene.