Conductive-tether design for de-orbiting from given altitude and inclination

A bare tether with thin-tape cross section is both i) the most effective electrodinamic tether for given length and mass, and ii) capable of effective design for an arbitrary mission through its three disparate dimensions. It handily beats the fully insulated tether that exchanges current at both ends, a result resting in advantages of 2D current collection as against 3D collection; it has much greater perimeter than the round bare tether and much lower fatal debris-impact rate, leading to greatly faster de-orbiting and greatly higher probability of survival; and it only allows multi-line tethers reaching a few hundred lines to stand competitive. In selecting the disparate values of length L, width w, and thickness h for a de-orbit mission, performance involves three criteria: a) tether-tospacecraft mass ratio must be small; b) probability of survival against the debris environment must be high; and c) de-orbiting must be fast to reduce manoeuvres for avoiding catastrophic collisions with big active/passive satellites around. Beyond determining tether mass through the product Lwh, main dimension parameters affecting performance are L/h2li characterizing ohmic effects, and w determining electron collection. An algorithm for optimal selection of tape dimensions is elaborated.

Radar track segmentation with cubic splines for collision risk models in high density terminal areas

This paper presents a method to segment airplane radar tracks in high density terminal areas where the air traffic follows trajectories with several changes in heading, speed and altitude. The radar tracks are modelled with different types of segments, straight lines, cubic spline function and shape preserving cubic function. The longitudinal, lateral and vertical deviations are calculated for terminal manoeuvring area scenarios. The most promising model of the radar tracks resulted from a mixed interpolation using straight lines for linear segments and spline cubic functions for curved segments. A sensitivity analysis is used to optimise the size of the window for the segmentation process.

Deforestación y Pérdida de hábitat en Bosques de montaña en la Cuenca alta del Río Zamora (Loja, Ecuador)

Los bosques húmedos de montaña se encuentran reconocidos como uno de los ecosistemas más amenazados en el mundo, llegando inclusive a ser considerado como un “hotspot” por su alta diversidad y endemismo. La acelerada pérdida de cobertura vegetal de estos bosques ha ocasionado que, en la actualidad, se encuentren restringidos a una pequeña fracción de su área de distribución histórica. Pese a esto, los estudios realizados sobre cual es efecto de la deforestación, fragmentación, cambios de uso de suelo y su efecto en las comunidades de plantas presentes en este tipo de vegetación aún son muy escuetos, en comparación a los realizados con sus similares amazónicos. En este trabajo, el cual se encuentra dividido en seis capítulos, abordaremos los siguientes objetivos: a) Comprender cuál es la dinámica que han seguido los diferentes tipos de bosques montanos andinos de la cuenca del Rio Zamora, Sur de Ecuador durante entre 1976 y 2002. b) Proveer de evidencia de las tasas de deforestación y fragmentación de todos los tipos diferentes de bosques montanos andinos presentes en la cuenca del Rio Zamora, Sur de Ecuador entre 1976 y 2002. c) Determinar qué factores inducen a la fragmentación de bosques de montaña en la cuenca alta del río Zamora entre 1976 y 2002. d) Determinar cuáles son y cómo afectan los factores ambientales y socioeconómicos a la dinámica de la deforestación y regeneración (pérdida y recuperación del hábitat) sufrida por los bosques de montaña dentro de la zona de estudio y e) Determinar si la deforestación y fragmentación actúan sobre la diversidad y estructura de las comunidades de tres tipos de organismos (comunidades de árboles, comunidades de líquenes epífitos y comunidades de hepáticas epífitas). Este estudio se centró en el cuenca alta del río Zamora, localizada al sur de Ecuador entre las coordenadas 3º 00´ 53” a 4º 20´ 24.65” de latitud sur y 79º 49´58” a 78º 35´ 38” de longitud oeste, que cubre alrededor de 4300 km2 de territorio situado entre las capitales de las provincias de Loja y Zamora-Chinchipe. Con objeto de predecir la dinámica futura de la deforestación en la región de Loja y cómo se verán afectados los diferentes tipos de hábitat, así como para detectar los factores que más influyen en dicha dinámica, se han construido modelos basados en la historia de la deforestación derivados de fotografías aéreas e imágenes satelitales de tres fechas (1976, 1989 y 2002). La cuantificación de la deforestación se realizó mediante la tasa de interés compuesto y para la caracterización de la configuración espacial de los fragmentos de bosque nativo se calcularon índices de paisaje los cuales fueron calculados utilizando el programa Fragstats 3.3. Se ha clasificado el recubrimiento del terreno en forestal y no forestal y se ha modelado su evolución temporal con Modelos Lineales Generalizados Mixtos (GLMM), empleando como variables explicativas tanto variables ambientales espacialmente explícitas (altitud, orientación, pendiente, etc) como antrópicas (distancia a zonas urbanizadas, deforestadas, caminos, entre otras). Para medir el efecto de la deforestación sobre las comunidades modelo (de árboles, líquenes y hepáticas) se monitorearon 11 fragmentos de vegetación de distinto tamaño: dos fragmentos de más de cien hectáreas, tres fragmentos de entre diez y noventa ha y seis fragmentos de menos de diez hectáreas. En ellos se instalaron un total de 38 transectos y 113 cuadrantes de 20 x 20 m a distancias que se alejaban progresivamente del borde en 10, 40 y 80 m. Nuestros resultados muestran una tasa media anual de deforestación del 1,16% para todo el período de estudio, que el tipo de vegetación que más alta tasa de destrucción ha sufrido, es el páramo herbáceo, con un 2,45% anual. El análisis de los patrones de fragmentación determinó un aumento en 2002 de más del doble de fragmentos presentes en 1976, lo cual se repite en el análisis del índice de densidad promedio. El índice de proximidad media entre fragmentos muestra una reducción progresiva de la continuidad de las áreas forestadas. Si bien las formas de los fragmentos se han mantenido bastante similares a lo largo del período de estudio, la conectividad entre estos ha disminuido en un 84%. Por otro lado, de nuestros análisis se desprende que las zonas con mayor probabilidad de deforestarse son aquellas que están cercanas a zonas previamente deforestadas; la cercanía a las vías también influye significativamente en la deforestación, causando un efecto directo en la composición y estructura de las comunidades estudiadas, que en el caso de los árboles viene mediado por el tamaño del fragmento y en el caso del componente epífito (hepáticas y líquenes), viene mediado tanto por el tamaño del fragmento como por la distancia al borde del mismo. Se concluye la posibilidad de que, de mantenerse esta tendencia, este tipo de bosques desaparecerá en corto tiempo y los servicios ecosistémicos que prestan, se verán seriamente comprometidos. ABSTRACT Mountain rainforests are recognized as one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and have even come to be considered as a “hotspot” due to their high degree of diversity and endemism. The accelerated loss of plant cover of these forests has caused them to be restricted today to a small fraction of their area of historic distribution. In spite of this, studies done on the effect of deforestation, fragmentation, changes in soil use and their effect on the plant communities present in this type of vegetation are very brief compared to those done on their analogues in the Amazon region. In this study, which is divided into six chapters, we will address the following objectives: a) To understand what the dynamic followed by the different types of Andean mountain forests in the Zamora River watershed of southern Ecuador has been between 1976 and 2002. b) To provide evidence of the rates of deforestation and fragmentation of all the different types of Andean mountain forests existing in the upper watershed of the Zamora River between 1976 and 2002. c) To determine the factors that induces fragmentation of all different types of Andean mountain forests existing in the upper watershed of the Zamora River between 1976 and 2002. d) To determine what the environmental and anthropogenic factors are driving the dynamic of deforestation and regeneration (loss and recuperation of the habitat) suffered by the mountain forests in the area of the study and e) To determine if the deforestation and fragmentation act upon the diversity and structure of three model communities: trees, epiphytic lichens and epiphytic liverworts. This study is centered on the upper Zamora River watershed, located in southern Ecuador between 3º 00´ 53” and 4º 20´ 24.65 south latitude and 79º 49´ 58” to 78º 35´ 38” west longitude, and covers around 4,300 km2 of territory located between Loja and Zamora-Chinchipe provinces. For the purpose of predicting the future dynamic of deforestation in the Loja region and how different types of habitats will be affected, as well as detecting the environmental and socioeconomic factors that influence landscape dynamics, models were constructed based on deforestation history, derived from aerial photographs and satellite images for three dates (1976, 1989 and 2002). Quantifying the deforestation was done using the compound interest rate; to characterize the spatial configuration of fragments of native forest, landscape indices were calculated with Fragstats 3.3 program. Land cover was classified as forested and not forested and its evolution over time was modeled with Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM), using spatially explicit environmental variables (altitude, orientation, slope, etc.) as well as anthropic variables (distance to urbanized, deforested areas and roads, among others) as explanatory variables. To measure the effects of fragmentation on three types of model communities (forest trees and epiphytic lichen and liverworts), 11 vegetation fragments of different sizes were monitored: two fragments of more than one hundred hectares, three fragments of between ten and ninety ha and six fragments of fewer than ten hectares . In these fragments, a total of 38 transects and 113 20 x 20 m quadrats were installed at distances that progressively moved away from the edge of the fragment by 10, 40 and 80 m. Our results show an average annual rate of deforestation of 1.16% for the entire period of the study, and that the type of vegetation that suffered the highest rate of destruction was grassy paramo, with an annual rate of 2.45%. The analysis of fragmentation patterns determined the number of fragments in 2002 more than doubled the number of fragments present in 1976, and the same occurred for the average density index. The variation of the average proximity index among fragments showed a progressive reduction of the continuity of forested areas. Although fragment shapes have remained quite similar over the period of the study, connectivity among them has diminished by 84%. On the other hand, it emerged from our analysis that the areas of greatest probability of deforestation were those that are close to previously deforested areas; proximity to roads also significantly favored the deforestation causing a direct effect on the composition of our model communities, that in the case of forest trees is determined by the size of the fragment, and in the case of the epiphyte communities (liverworts and lichens), is determined, by the size of the fragment as well as the distance to edge. A subject under discussion is the possibility that if this tendency continues, this type of forest will disappear in a short time, and the ecological services it provides, will be seriously endangered.

Redistribution of Soil Organic Matter by Permafrost Disturbance in the Canadian High Arctic

With increased warming in the Arctic, permafrost thaw may induce localized physical disturbance of slopes. These disturbances, referred to as active layer detachments (ALDs), redistribute soil across the landscape, potentially releasing previously unavailable carbon (C). In 2007–2008, widespread ALD activity was reported at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory in Nunavut, Canada. Our study investigated organic matter (OM) composition in soil profiles from ALD-impacted and undisturbed areas. Solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and solvent-extractable biomarkers were used to characterize soil OM. Throughout the disturbed upslope profile, where surface soils and vegetation had been removed, NMR revealed low O-alkyl C content and biomarker analysis revealed low concentrations of solvent-extractable compounds suggesting enhanced erosion of labile-rich OM by the ALD. In the disturbed downslope region, vegetation remained intact but displaced material from upslope produced lateral compression ridges at the surface. High O-alkyl content in the surface horizon was consistent with enrichment of carbohydrates and peptides, but low concentrations of labile biomarkers (i.e., sugars) suggested the presence of relatively unaltered labile-rich OM. Decreased O-alkyl content and biomarker concentrations below the surface contrasted with the undisturbed profile and may indicate the loss of well-established pre-ALD surface drainage with compression ridge formation. However, pre-ALD profile composition remains unknown and the observed decreases may result from nominal pre-ALD OM inputs. These results are the first to establish OM composition in ALD-impacted soil profiles, suggesting reallocation of permafrost-derived soil C to areas where degradation or erosion may contribute to increased C losses from disturbed Arctic soils.

Remote Sensing of Vegetation Change Across a Latitudinal Gradient in the Canadian Arctic

Global air surface temperatures and precipitation have increased over the last several decades resulting in a trend of greening across the Circumpolar Arctic. The spatial variability of warming and the inherent effects on plant communities has not proven to be uniform or homogeneous on global or local scales. We can apply remote sensing vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to map and monitor vegetation change (e.g., phenology, greening, percent cover, and biomass) over time. It is important to document how Arctic vegetation is changing, as it will have large implications related to global carbon and surface energy budgets. The research reported here examined vegetation greening across different spatial and temporal scales at two disparate Arctic sites: Apex River Watershed (ARW), Baffin Island, and Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO), Melville Island, NU. To characterize the vegetation in the ARW, high spatial resolution WorldView-2 data were processed to create a supervised land-cover classification and model percent vegetation cover (PVC) (a similar process had been completed in a previous study for the CBAWO). Meanwhile, NDVI data spanning the past 30 years were derived from intermediate resolution Landsat data at the two Arctic sites. The land-cover classifications at both sites were used to examine the Landsat NDVI time series by vegetation class. Climate variables (i.e., temperature, precipitation and growing season length (GSL) were examined to explore the potential relationships of NDVI to climate warming. PVC was successfully modeled using high resolution data in the ARW. PVC and plant communities appear to reside along a moisture and altitudinal gradient. The NDVI time series demonstrated an overall significant increase in greening at the CBAWO (High Arctic site), specifically in the dry and mesic vegetation type. However, similar overall greening was not observed for the ARW (Low Arctic site). The overall increase in NDVI at the CBAWO was attributed to a significant increase in July temperatures, precipitation and GSL.

Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects

The eruption of Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 had substantial effects on global climate and led to the ‘Year Without a Summer’ of 1816 in Europe and North America. Although a tragic event — tens of thousands of people lost their lives — the eruption also was an ‘experiment of nature’ from which science has learned until today. The aim of this study is to summarize our current understanding of the Tambora eruption and its effects on climate as expressed in early instrumental observations, climate proxies and geological evidence, climate reconstructions, and model simulations. Progress has been made with respect to our understanding of the eruption process and estimated amount of SO2 injected into the atmosphere, although large uncertainties still exist with respect to altitude and hemispheric distribution of Tambora aerosols. With respect to climate effects, the global and Northern Hemispheric cooling are well constrained by proxies whereas there is no strong signal in Southern Hemisphere proxies. Newly recovered early instrumental information for Western Europe and parts of North America, regions with particularly strong climate effects, allow Tambora’s effect on the weather systems to be addressed. Climate models respond to prescribed Tambora-like forcing with a strengthening of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, global cooling and a slowdown of the water cycle, weakening of the summer monsoon circulations, a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and a decrease of atmospheric CO₂. Combining observations, climate proxies, and model simulations for the case of Tambora, a better understanding of climate processes has emerged.

Tropical climate and vegetation simulations during the Heinrich event 1 using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) - the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM)

Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP) associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs) generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote effects of a Heinrich event under a glacial climate background.

Pollen, DNA and Vegetation records from surface sediments of lacustrine lakes along a forest tundra - tundra transect at the Taymyr peninsula, northern Siberia

Reliable information of past vegetation changes are important to project future changes, especially for areas undergoing rapid transitioning such as the boreal treeline. The application of detailed sedDNA records has the potential to enhance our understanding of vegetation changes gained mainly from pollen studies of lake sediments. This study investigates sedDNA and pollen records from 31 lakes along a gradient of increasing larch forest cover in northern Siberia (Taymyr Peninsula) and compares them with vegetation field surveys within the lake's catchment. With respect to vegetation richness, sedDNA recorded 114 taxa, about half of them to species level, while pollen analyses identified 43 pollen taxa. Both approaches exceed the 31 taxa revealed by vegetation field surveys of 400 m**2 plots. From north to south, Larix percentages increase, as is consistently recorded by all three methods. Furthermore, tundra sites are separated from forested sites in the plots of the principal component analyses. Comparison of ordination results by Procrustes and Protest analyses yields a significant fit among all compared pairs of records. Despite the overall comparability of sedDNA and pollen analyses certain idiosyncrasies in the compositional signal are observed, such as high percentages of Alnus and Betula in all pollen spectra and high percentages of Salix in all sedDNA spectra. In conclusion, our results from the treeline show that sedDNA analyses perform better than pollen in recording site-specific richness (i.e. presence/absence of certain vegetation taxa in the direct vicinity of the lake) and perform as good as pollen in tracing regional vegetation composition.

High-resolution pollen record of ODP Hole 175-1078C

To address the connection between tropical African vegetation development and high-latitude climate change we present a high-resolution pollen record from ODP Site 1078 (off Angola) covering the period 50-10 ka BP. Although several tropical African vegetation and climate reconstructions indicate an impact of Heinrich Stadials (HSs) in Southern Hemisphere Africa, our vegetation record shows no response. Model simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity including a dynamical vegetation component provide one possible explanation. Because both precipitation and evaporation increased during HSs and their effects nearly cancelled each other, there was a negligible change in moisture supply. Consequently, the resulting climatic response to HSs might have been too weak to noticeably affect the vegetation composition in the study area. Our results also show that the response to HSs in southern tropical Africa neither equals nor mirrors the response to abrupt climate change in northern Africa.

ELPA (European Leaf Physiognomic Approach): Grid data set of the leaf physiognomic composition of the extant European hardwood vegetation

Physiognomic traits of plant leaves such as size, shape or margin are decisively affected by the prevailing environmental conditions of the plant habitat. On the other hand, if a relationship between environment and leaf physiognomy can be shown to exist, vegetation represents a proxy for environmental conditions. This study investigates the relationship between physiognomic traits of leaves from European hardwood vegetation and environmental parameters in order to create a calibration dataset based on high resolution grid cell data. The leaf data are obtained from synthetic chorologic floras, the environmental data comprise climatic and ecologic data. The high resolution of the data allows for a detailed analysis of the spatial dependencies between the investigated parameters. The comparison of environmental parameters and leaf physiognomic characters reveals a clear correlation between temperature related parameters (e.g. mean annual temperature or ground frost frequency) and the expression of leaf characters (e.g. the type of leaf margin or the base of the lamina). Precipitation related parameters (e.g. mean annual precipitation), however, show no correlation with the leaf physiognomic composition of the vegetation. On the basis of these results, transfer functions for several environmental parameters are calculated from the leaf physiognomic composition of the extant vegetation. In a next step, a cluster analysis is applied to the dataset in order to identify "leaf physiognomic communities". Several of these are distinguished, characterised and subsequently used for vegetation classification. Concerning the leaf physiognomic diversity there are precise differences between each of these "leaf physiognomic classes". There is a clear increase of leaf physiognomic diversity with increasing variability of the environmental parameters: Northern vegetation types are characterised by a more or less homogeneous leaf physiognomic composition whereas southern vegetation types like the Mediterranean vegetation show a considerable higher leaf physiognomic diversity. Finally, the transfer functions are used to estimate palaeo-environmental parameters of three fossil European leaf assemblages from Late Oligocene and Middle Miocene. The results are compared with results obtained from other palaeo-environmental reconstructing methods. The estimates based on a direct linear ordination seem to be the most realistic ones, as they are highly consistent with the Coexistence Approach.

Urban forestry laboratory exercises for elementary, middle and high school students /

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