Intelligent reliability analysis with incomplete covariates

The reliability analysis is crucial to reducing unexpected down time, severe failures and ever tightened maintenance budget of engineering assets. Hazard based reliability methods are of particular interest as hazard reflects the current health status of engineering assets and their imminent failure risks. Most existing hazard models were constructed using the statistical methods. However, these methods were established largely based on two assumptions: one is the assumption of baseline failure distributions being accurate to the population concerned and the other is the assumption of effects of covariates on hazards. These two assumptions may be difficult to achieve and therefore compromise the effectiveness of hazard models in the application. To address this issue, a non-linear hazard modelling approach is developed in this research using neural networks (NNs), resulting in neural network hazard models (NNHMs), to deal with limitations due to the two assumptions for statistical models. With the success of failure prevention effort, less failure history becomes available for reliability analysis. Involving condition data or covariates is a natural solution to this challenge. A critical issue for involving covariates in reliability analysis is that complete and consistent covariate data are often unavailable in reality due to inconsistent measuring frequencies of multiple covariates, sensor failure, and sparse intrusive measurements. This problem has not been studied adequately in current reliability applications. This research thus investigates such incomplete covariates problem in reliability analysis. Typical approaches to handling incomplete covariates have been studied to investigate their performance and effects on the reliability analysis results. Since these existing approaches could underestimate the variance in regressions and introduce extra uncertainties to reliability analysis, the developed NNHMs are extended to include handling incomplete covariates as an integral part. The extended versions of NNHMs have been validated using simulated bearing data and real data from a liquefied natural gas pump. The results demonstrate the new approach outperforms the typical incomplete covariates handling approaches. Another problem in reliability analysis is that future covariates of engineering assets are generally unavailable. In existing practices for multi-step reliability analysis, historical covariates were used to estimate the future covariates. Covariates of engineering assets, however, are often subject to substantial fluctuation due to the influence of both engineering degradation and changes in environmental settings. The commonly used covariate extrapolation methods thus would not be suitable because of the error accumulation and uncertainty propagation. To overcome this difficulty, instead of directly extrapolating covariate values, projection of covariate states is conducted in this research. The estimated covariate states and unknown covariate values in future running steps of assets constitute an incomplete covariate set which is then analysed by the extended NNHMs. A new assessment function is also proposed to evaluate risks of underestimated and overestimated reliability analysis results. A case study using field data from a paper and pulp mill has been conducted and it demonstrates that this new multi-step reliability analysis procedure is able to generate more accurate analysis results.

Using real-time authentic online learning scenarios to teach criminal intelligence

Criminal intelligence is an area of expertise highly sought-after internationally and within a variety of justice-related professions; however, producing university graduates with the requisite professional knowledge, as well as analytical, organisational and technical skills presents a pedagogical and technical challenge to university educators. The situation becomes even more challenging when students are undertaking their studies by distance education. This best practice session showcases the design of an online undergraduate unit for final year justice students which uses an evolving real-time criminal scenario as the focus of authentic learning activities in order to prepare students for graduate roles within the criminal intelligence and justice professions. Within the unit, students take on the role of criminal intelligence analysts, applying relevant theories, models and strategies to solve a complex but realistic crime and complete briefings and documentation to industry standards as their major summative assessment task. The session will demonstrate how the design of the online unit corresponds to authentic learning principles, and will specifically map the elements of the unit design to Herrington & Oliver’s instructional design framework for authentic learning (2000; Herrington & Herrington 2006). The session will show how a range of technologies was used to create a rich learning experience for students that could be easily maintained over multiple unit iterations without specialist technical support. The session will also discuss the unique pedagogical affordances and challenges implicated in the location of the unit within an online learning environment, and will reflect on some of the lessons learned from the development which may be relevant to other authentic online learning contexts.

Using real-time authentic online learning scenarios to teach criminal intelligence : presentation

Criminal intelligence is an area of expertise highly sought-after internationally and within a variety of justice-related professions; however, producing university graduates with the requisite professional knowledge, as well as analytical, organisational and technical skills presents a pedagogical and technical challenge to university educators. The situation becomes even more challenging when students are undertaking their studies by distance education. This best practice session showcases the design of an online undergraduate unit for final year justice students which uses an evolving real-time criminal scenario as the focus of authentic learning activities in order to prepare students for graduate roles within the criminal intelligence and justice professions. Within the unit, students take on the role of criminal intelligence analysts, applying relevant theories, models and strategies to solve a complex but realistic crime and complete briefings and documentation to industry standards as their major summative assessment task. The session will demonstrate how the design of the online unit corresponds to authentic learning principles, and will specifically map the elements of the unit design to Herrington & Oliver’s instructional design framework for authentic learning (2000; Herrington & Herrington 2006). The session will show how a range of technologies was used to create a rich learning experience for students that could be easily maintained over multiple unit iterations without specialist technical support. The session will also discuss the unique pedagogical affordances and challenges implicated in the location of the unit within an online learning environment, and will reflect on some of the lessons learned from the development which may be relevant to other authentic online learning contexts.

Time to change consumer involvement in nursing research

The experiences of people affected by cancer are at the very heart of nursing research efforts. Because much of our work is focused on understanding how to improve experiences and outcomes for people with cancer, it is easy for us to believe that our research is inherently "person centered" and thus collaborative. Let's reflect on what truly collaborative approaches to cancer nursing research could be like, and how we measure up to such goals. Collaboration between people affected by cancer (consumers) and nurses in research is much more than providing a voice for individuals as participants in a research study. Today, research governing bodies in many countries require us to seek a different kind of consumer participation, where consumers and researchers work in partnership with one another to shape decisions about research priorities, policies, and practices.1 Most granting bodies now require explanations of how consumer and community participation will occur within a study. Ethical imperatives and the concept of patient advocacy also require that we give more considered attention to what is meant by consumer involvement.2 Consumers provide perspective on what will be relevant, acceptable, feasible, and sensitive research, having lived the experience of cancer. As a result, they offer practical insights that can ensure the successful conduct and better outcomes from research. Some granting bodies now even allocate a proportion of final score or assign a "public value" weighting for a grant, to recognize the importance of consumer involvement and reflect the quality of patient involvement in all stages of the research process.3

Improving psychosocial care: a professional development programme

Despite the numerous reports of difficulties experienced by health care providers in providing psychosocial care to terminally ill patients and their families, few studies have yet been undertaken to examine the effectiveness of different educational approaches to addressing these issues. The aim of this paper is to describe a programme of professional development for palliative care nurses, which is currently being offered to 181 registered nurses in Queensland, Australia. The programme is based on an action learning model and is designed to facilitate processes of reflection and peer consultation. In Part One of this paper, a review of this literature is presented to provide the background and rationale for the programme design. Details of the research programme developed to evaluate the programme will be presented in Part Two of this paper, which is to be published in the next issue of this Journal. Surveys of health professionals suggest that the demands of working with terminally ill patients are associated with a great deal of stress (Beaton and Degner 1990, Seale 1992, Vachon 1995), and emotional burden, as they are confronted with their patients' physical and emotional suffering over extended periods of time (Ullrich and Fitzgerald 1990). Key areas of concern (Lyons 1988, Bramwell 1989, Seale 1992, Copp and Dunn 1993, Wilkinson 1995) include: * Handling questions and conversations with dying patients. * Dealing with ethical and moral issues. * Handling emotions. * Giving hope. * Providing spiritual care and bereavement support. * Confronting team communication problems.

Fire safety of buildings based on realistic fire time-temperature curves

In recent times, fire has become a major disaster in buildings due to the increase in fire loads, as a result of modern furniture and light weight construction. This has caused problems for safe evacuation and rescue activities, and in some instances lead to the collapse of buildings (Lewis, 2008 and Nyman, 2002). Recent research has shown that the actual fire resistance of building elements exposed to building fires can be less than their specified fire resistance rating (Lennon and Moore, 2003, Jones, 2002, Nyman, 2002 and Abecassis-Empis et al. 2008). Conventionally the fire rating of building elements is determined using fire tests based on the standard fire time-temperature curve given in ISO 834. This ISO 834 curve was developed in the early 1900s, where wood was the basic fuel source. In reality, modern buildings make use of thermoplastic materials, synthetic foams and fabrics. These materials are high in calorific values and increase both the speed of fire growth and heat release rate, thus increasing the fire severity beyond that of the standard fire curve. Hence it suggests the need to use realistic fire time-temperature curves in tests. Real building fire temperature profiles depend on the fuel load representing the combustible building contents, ventilation openings and thermal properties of wall lining materials. Fuel load is selected based on a review and suitable realistic fire time-temperature curves were developed. Fire tests were then performed for plasterboard lined light gauge steel framed walls for the developed realistic fire curves. This paper presents the details of the development of suitable realistic building fire curves, and the fire tests using them. It describes the fire performance of tested walls in comparison to the standard fire tests and highlights the differences between them. This research has shown the need to use realistic fire exposures in assessing the fire resistance rating of building elements.

Quantum one-time programs

A one-time program is a hypothetical device by which a user may evaluate a circuit on exactly one input of his choice, before the device self-destructs. One-time programs cannot be achieved by software alone, as any software can be copied and re-run. However, it is known that every circuit can be compiled into a one-time program using a very basic hypothetical hardware device called a one-time memory. At first glance it may seem that quantum information, which cannot be copied, might also allow for one-time programs. But it is not hard to see that this intuition is false: one-time programs for classical or quantum circuits based solely on quantum information do not exist, even with computational assumptions. This observation raises the question, "what assumptions are required to achieve one-time programs for quantum circuits?" Our main result is that any quantum circuit can be compiled into a one-time program assuming only the same basic one-time memory devices used for classical circuits. Moreover, these quantum one-time programs achieve statistical universal composability (UC-security) against any malicious user. Our construction employs methods for computation on authenticated quantum data, and we present a new quantum authentication scheme called the trap scheme for this purpose. As a corollary, we establish UC-security of a recent protocol for delegated quantum computation.

Metabolic urinary profiling of alcohol hepatotoxicity and intervention effects of Yin Chen Hao Tang in rats using ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry

This paper was designed to study metabonomic characters of the hepatotoxicity induced by alcohol and the intervention effects of Yin Chen Hao Tang (YCHT), a classic traditional Chinese medicine formula for treatment of jaundice and liver disorders in China. Urinary samples from control, alcohol- and YCHT-treated rats were analyzed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC/ESI-QTOF-MS) in positive ionization mode. The total ion chromatograms obtained from the control, alcohol- and YCHT-treated rats were easily distinguishable using a multivariate statistical analysis method such as the principal components analysis (PCA). The greatest difference in metabolic profiling was observed from alcohol-treated rats compared with the control and YCHT-treated rats. The positive ions m/z 664.3126 (9.00 min) was elevated in urine of alcohol-treated rats, whereas, ions m/z 155.3547 (10.96 min) and 708.2932 (9.01 min) were at a lower concentration compared with that in urine of control rats, however, these ions did not indicate a statistical difference between control rats and YCHT-treated rats. The ion m/z 664.3126 was found to correspond to ceramide (d18:1/25:0), providing further support for an involvement of the sphingomyelin signaling pathway in alcohol hepatotoxicity and the intervention effects of YCHT.

Time and space in biogeography : response to Parenti & Ebach (2013)

A recent Guest Editorial by Parenti & Ebach (2013, Journal of Biogeography, 40, 813–820) disagrees with the methods or interpretations in two of our recent papers. In addition, the authors open a debate on biogeographical concepts, and present an alternative philosophy for biogeographical research in the context of their recently described biogeographical subregion called ‘Pandora’. We disagree with their approach and conclusions, and comment on several issues related to our differing conceptual approaches for biogeographical research; namely, our use of molecular phylogenetic analyses, including time estimates; and Parenti & Ebach's reliance on taxon/general area cladograms. Finally, we re-examine their ‘tests’ supporting the existence of ‘Pandora’.

Predicting the retention of first-time donors using an extended Theory of Planned Behavior

BACKGROUND: Donor retention is vital to blood collection agencies. Past research has highlighted the importance of early career behavior for long-term donor retention, yet research investigating the determinants of early donor behavior is scarce. Using an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), this study sought to identify the predictors of first-time blood donors' early career retention. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: First-time donors (n = 256) completed three surveys on blood donation. The standard TPB predictors and self-identity as a donor were assessed 3 weeks (Time 1) and at 4 months (Time 2) after an initial donation. Path analyses examined the utility of the extended TPB to predict redonation at 4 and 8 months after initial donation. RESULTS: The extended TPB provided a good fit to the data. Post-Time 1 and 2 behavior was consistently predicted by intention to redonate. Further, intention was predicted by attitudes, perceived control, and self-identity (Times 1 and 2). Donors' intentions to redonate at Time 1 were the strongest predictor of intention to donate at Time 2, while donors' behavior at Time 1 strengthened self-identity as a blood donor at Time 2. CONCLUSION: An extended TPB framework proved efficacious in revealing the determinants of first-time donor retention in an initial 8-month period. The results suggest that collection agencies should intervene to bolster donors' attitudes, perceived control, and identity as a donor during this crucial post–first donation period.

Vehicle-to-vehicle real-time relative positioning using 5.9 GHz DSRC media

Vehicular accidents are one of the deadliest safety hazards and accordingly an immense concern of individuals and governments. Although, a wide range of active autonomous safety systems, such as advanced driving assistance and lane keeping support, are introduced to facilitate safer driving experience, these stand-alone systems have limited capabilities in providing safety. Therefore, cooperative vehicular systems were proposed to fulfill more safety requirements. Most cooperative vehicle-to-vehicle safety applications require relative positioning accuracy of decimeter level with an update rate of at least 10 Hz. These requirements cannot be met via direct navigation or differential positioning techniques. This paper studies a cooperative vehicle platform that aims to facilitate real-time relative positioning (RRP) among adjacent vehicles. The developed system is capable of exchanging both GPS position solutions and raw observations using RTCM-104 format over vehicular dedicated short range communication (DSRC) links. Real-time kinematic (RTK) positioning technique is integrated into the system to enable RRP to be served as an embedded real-time warning system. The 5.9 GHz DSRC technology is adopted as the communication channel among road-side units (RSUs) and on-board units (OBUs) to distribute GPS corrections data received from a nearby reference station via the Internet using cellular technologies, by means of RSUs, as well as to exchange the vehicular real-time GPS raw observation data. Ultimately, each receiving vehicle calculates relative positions of its neighbors to attain a RRP map. A series of real-world data collection experiments was conducted to explore the synergies of both DSRC and positioning systems. The results demonstrate a significant enhancement in precision and availability of relative positioning at mobile vehicles.

Mothers vs fathers as learner driver supervisors : time commitment, driving activities and perceptions of risk

The learner licence, within a graduated driver licensing system, provides new drivers with the opportunity to learn to drive under the supervision of a more experienced driver. The Queensland graduated driver licensing system requires learner drivers to record a minimum of 100 logbook hours of supervised practice with the support of parents appearing critical to ensure that this is achieved. This paper examines differences between mothers and fathers who supervise learner drivers. Mothers and fathers from Queensland who had recently supervised their child while they learnt to drive completed an internet survey about their experiences. It appears that one strategy that parents use to provide practice hours is for the child to drive themselves or their parents to or from activities that they would have attended anyway in addition to undertaking special trips in the car for the purposes of practising. The results suggest that mothers, when compared with fathers, consider driving at all stages of licensure riskier and that mothers provided more hours of supervision than fathers. However, despite this, there are limited differences between how frequently mothers and fathers provide different driving experiences such as deliberately practising in suburban areas or with passengers in the car. This research fills a gap in the literature by providing important information about the way in which parents supervise their children while they are driving on a learner licence as well as identifying some of the differences and similarities between mothers and fathers.

Sense-making across space and time : implications for the organization and findability of information

This paper presents the results from a study of information behaviors, with specific focus on information organisation-related behaviours conducted as part of a larger daily diary study with 34 participants. The findings indicate that organization of information in everyday life is a problematic area due to various factors. The self-evident one is the inter-subjectivity between the person who may have organized the information and the person looking for that same information (Berlin et. al., 1993). Increasingly though, we are not just looking for information within collections that have been designed by someone else, but within our own personal collections of information, which frequently include books, electronic files, photos, records, documents, desktops, web bookmarks, and portable devices. The passage of time between when we categorized or classified the information, and the time when we look for the same information, poses several problems of intra-subjectivity, or the difference between our own past and present perceptions of the same information. Information searching, and hence the retrieval of information from one's own collection of information in everyday life involved a spatial and temporal coordination with one's own past selves in a sort of cognitive and affective time travel, just as organizing information is a form of anticipatory coordination with one's future information needs. This has implications for finding information and also on personal information management.

Comparison of genomic DNA extraction techniques from whole blood samples : a time, cost and quality evaluation study

Genomic DNA obtained from patient whole blood samples is a key element for genomic research. Advantages and disadvantages, in terms of time-efficiency, cost-effectiveness and laboratory requirements, of procedures available to isolate nucleic acids need to be considered before choosing any particular method. These characteristics have not been fully evaluated for some laboratory techniques, such as the salting out method for DNA extraction, which has been excluded from comparison in different studies published to date. We compared three different protocols (a traditional salting out method, a modified salting out method and a commercially available kit method) to determine the most cost-effective and time-efficient method to extract DNA. We extracted genomic DNA from whole blood samples obtained from breast cancer patient volunteers and compared the results of the product obtained in terms of quantity (concentration of DNA extracted and DNA obtained per ml of blood used) and quality (260/280 ratio and polymerase chain reaction product amplification) of the obtained yield. On average, all three methods showed no statistically significant differences between the final result, but when we accounted for time and cost derived for each method, they showed very significant differences. The modified salting out method resulted in a seven- and twofold reduction in cost compared to the commercial kit and traditional salting out method, respectively and reduced time from 3 days to 1 hour compared to the traditional salting out method. This highlights a modified salting out method as a suitable choice to be used in laboratories and research centres, particularly when dealing with a large number of samples.

The association between time spent outdoors and myopia using a novel biomarker of outdoor light exposure

PURPOSE: We sought to determine whether conjunctival ultraviolet autofluorescence (UVAF), a biomarker of outdoor light exposure, is associated with myopia. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study on Norfolk Island and recruited individuals aged ≥ 15 years. Participants completed a sun-exposure questionnaire and underwent non-cycloplegic autorefraction. Conjunctival UVAF used a specially adapted electronic flash system fitted with UV-transmission filters (transmittance range 300-400 nm, peak 365 nm) as the excitation source. Temporal and nasal conjunctival UVAF was measured in both eyes using computerized photographic analysis with the sum referred to as "total UVAF." RESULTS: In 636 participants, prevalence of myopia decreased with an increasing quartile of total UVAF (P(trend) = 0.002). Median total UVAF was lower in subjects with myopia (spherical equivalent [SE] ≤ -1.0 diopter [D]) than participants without myopia: 16.6 mm(2) versus 28.6 mm(2), P = 0.001. In the multivariable model that adjusted for age, sex, smoking, cataract, height and weight, UVAF was independently associated with myopia (SE ≤ -1.0 D): odds ratio (OR) for total UVAF (per 10 mm(2)) was 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 0.94, P = 0.007. UVAF was also significantly associated with myopia when analysis was restricted to subjects <50 years, and in moderate-severe myopia (SE ≤ -3.0 D). Prevalence of myopia decreased with increasing time outdoors (P(trend) = 0.03), but time outdoors was not associated with myopia on multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Study authors identified a protective association between increasing UVAF and myopia. The protective association of higher UVAF against myopia was stronger than that of increased levels of time spent outdoors as measured by this study's questionnaire. Future studies should investigate the association between UVAF and incident myopia, and its relationship to myopic progression.