Marine Fisheries Stock Assessment Improvement Plan: report of the National Marine Fisheries Service National Task Force for Improving Fish Stock Assessments

This report argues for greatly increased resources in terms of data collection facilities and staff to collect, process, and analyze the data, and to communicate the results, in order for NMFS to fulfill its mandate to conserve and manage marine resources. In fact, the authors of this report had great difficulty defining the "ideal" situation to which fisheries stock assessments and management should aspire. One of the primary objectives of fisheries management is to develop sustainable harvest policies that minimize the risks of overfishing both target species and associated species. This can be achieved in a wide spectrum of ways, ranging between the following two extremes. The first is to implement only simple management measures with correspondingly simple assessment demands, which will usually mean setting fishing mortality targets at relatively low levels in order to reduce the risk of unknowingly overfishing or driving ecosystems towards undesirable system states. The second is to expand existing data collection and analysis programs to provide an adequate knowledge base that can support higher fishing mortality targets while still ensuring low risk to target and associated species and ecosystems. However, defining "adequate" is difficult, especially when scientists have not even identified all marine species, and information on catches, abundances, and life histories of many target species, and most associated species, is sparse. Increasing calls from the public, stakeholders, and the scientific community to implement ecosystem-based stock assessment and management make it even more difficult to define "adequate," especially when "ecosystem-based management" is itself not well-defined. In attempting to describe the data collection and assessment needs for the latter, the authors took a pragmatic approach, rather than trying to estimate the resources required to develop a knowledge base about the fine-scale detailed distributions, abundances, and associations of all marine species. Thus, the specified resource requirements will not meet the expectations of some stakeholders. In addition, the Stock Assessment Improvement Plan is designed to be complementary to other related plans, and therefore does not duplicate the resource requirements detailed in those plans, except as otherwise noted.

Evolution of localized blobs of swirling or buoyant fluid with and without an ambient magnetic field.

We investigate the evolution of localized blobs of swirling or buoyant fluid in an infinite, inviscid, electrically conducting fluid. We consider the three cases of a strong imposed magnetic field, a weak imposed magnetic field, and no magnetic field. For a swirling blob in the absence of a magnetic field, we find, in line with others, that the blob bursts radially outward under the action of the centrifugal force, forming a thin annular vortex sheet. A simple model of this process predicts that the vortex sheet thins exponentially fast and that it moves radially outward with constant velocity. These predictions are verified by high-resolution numerical simulations. When an intense magnetic field is applied, this phenomenon is suppressed, with the energy and angular momentum of the blob now diffusing axially along the magnetic field lines, converting the blob into a columnar structure. For modest or weak magnetic fields, there are elements of both types of behavior, with the radial bursting dominating over axial diffusion for weak fields. However, even when the magnetic field is very weak, the flow structure is quite distinct to that of the nonmagnetic case. In particular, a small but finite magnetic field places a lower bound on the thickness of the annular vortex sheet and produces an annulus of counter-rotating fluid that surrounds the vortex core. The behavior of the buoyant blob is similar. In the absence of a magnetic field, it rapidly develops the mushroomlike shape of a thermal, with a thin vortex sheet at the top and sides of the mushroom. Again, a simple model of this process predicts that the vortex sheet at the top of the thermal thins exponentially fast and rises with constant velocity. These predictions are consistent with earlier numerical simulations. Curiously, however, it is shown that the net vertical momentum associated with the blob increases linearly in time, despite the fact that the vertical velocity at the front of the thermal is constant. As with the swirling blob, an imposed magnetic field inhibits the formation of a vortex sheet. A strong magnetic field completely suppresses the phenomenon, replacing it with an axial diffusion of momentum, while a weak magnetic field allows the sheet to form, but places a lower bound on its thickness. The magnetic field does not, however, change the net vertical momentum of the blob, which always increases linearly with time.

Stock-rebuilding time isopleths and constant-F stock-rebuilding plans for overfished stocks

Stock-rebuilding time isopleths relate constant levels of fishing mortality (F), stock biomass, and management goals to rebuilding times for overfished stocks. We used simulation models with uncertainty about FMSY and variability in annual intrinsic growth rates (ry) to calculate rebuilding time isopleths for Georges Bank yellowtail flounder, Limanda ferruginea, and cowcod rockfish, Sebastes levis, in the Southern California Bight. Stock-rebuilding time distributions from stochastic models were variable and right-skewed, indicating that rebuilding may take less or substantially more time than expected. The probability of long rebuilding times increased with lower biomass, higher F, uncertainty about FMSY, and autocorrelation in ry values. Uncertainty about FMSY had the greatest effect on rebuilding times. Median recovery times from simulations were insensitive to model assumptions about uncertainty and variability, suggesting that median recovery times should be considered in rebuilding plans. Isopleths calculated in previous studies by deterministic models approximate median, rather than mean, rebuilding times. Stochastic models allow managers to specify and evaluate the risk (measured as a probability) of not achieving a rebuilding goal according to schedule. Rebuilding time isopleths can be used for stocks with a range of life histories and can be based on any type of population dynamics model. They are directly applicable with constant F rebuilding plans but are also useful in other cases. We used new algorithms for simulating autocorrelated process errors from a gamma distribution and evaluated sensitivity to statistical distributions assumed for ry. Uncertainty about current biomass and fishing mortality rates can be considered with rebuilding time isopleths in evaluating and designing constant-F rebuilding plans.