Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.

Mummies and skeletons from the Coptic monastery complex Deir el-Bachit in Thebes-west, Egypt

Deir el-Bachit is the largest known Coptic monastery complex in Thebes-West. It dates to the Late Antiquity period between the 6th and the beginning of the 10th century AD. So far, at least 26 individuals from the site were analysed anthropologically. 22 of them were excavated directly at the necropolis, the other 4 are special burials that were found at other locations nearby.Most individuals from the necropolis are male adults. There are two categories of human remains: “mummified” and “skeletonised”. The differences are probably due to social stratification. A substance similar to bitumen was found at the mummies. At that time, resin containing oils and bitumen were normally not used any more. One of the Special burials was an approximately three years old child which was found enclosed within a wall. Another special burial was a juvenile or young adult female who was found in the vault of an abandoned granary. The female was most likely pregnant and fell victim to a violent crime. This is indicated by the bones of a six months old foetus and an intravital skull fracture. She was no contemporary from the time the monastery was cultivated but was later deposited in this area.