Assessment of the occurrence and potential risks of antibiotics and their metabolites in South Florida waters using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

An automated on-line SPE-LC-MS/MS method was developed for the quantitation of multiple classes of antibiotics in environmental waters. High sensitivity in the low ng/L range was accomplished by using large volume injections with 10-mL of sample. Positive confirmation of analytes was achieved using two selected reaction monitoring (SRM) transitions per antibiotic and quantitation was performed using an internal standard approach. Samples were extracted using online solid phase extraction, then using column switching technique; extracted samples were immediately passed through liquid chromatography and analyzed by tandem mass spectrometry. The total run time per each sample was 20 min. The statistically calculated method detection limits for various environmental samples were between 1.2 and 63 ng/L. Furthermore, the method was validated in terms of precision, accuracy and linearity. ^ The developed analytical methodology was used to measure the occurrence of antibiotics in reclaimed waters (n=56), surface waters (n=53), ground waters (n=8) and drinking waters (n=54) collected from different parts of South Florida. In reclaimed waters, the most frequently detected antibiotics were nalidixic acid, erythromycin, clarithromycin, azithromycin trimethoprim, sulfamethoxazole and ofloxacin (19.3-604.9 ng/L). Detection of antibiotics in reclaimed waters indicates that they can't be completely removed by conventional wastewater treatment process. Furthermore, the average mass loads of antibiotics released into the local environment through reclaimed water were estimated as 0.248 Kg/day. Among the surface waters samples, Miami River (reaching up to 580 ng/L) and Black Creek canal (up to 124 ng/L) showed highest concentrations of antibiotics. No traces of antibiotics were found in ground waters. On the other hand, erythromycin (monitored as anhydro erythromycin) was detected in 82% of the drinking water samples (n.d-66 ng/L). The developed approach is suitable for both research and monitoring applications.^ Major metabolites of antibiotics in reclaimed wates were identified and quantified using high resolution benchtop Q-Exactive orbitrap mass spectrometer. A phase I metabolite of erythromycin was tentatively identified in full scan based on accurate mass measurement. Using extracted ion chromatogram (XIC), high resolution data-dependent MS/MS spectra and metabolic profiling software the metabolite was identified as desmethyl anhydro erythromycin with molecular formula C36H63NO12 and m/z 702.4423. The molar concentration of the metabolite to erythromycin was in the order of 13 %. To my knowledge, this is the first known report on this metabolite in reclaimed water. Another compound acetyl-sulfamethoxazole, a phase II metabolite of sulfamethoxazole was also identified in reclaimed water and mole fraction of the metabolite represent 36 %, of the cumulative sulfamethoxazole concentration. The results were illustrating the importance to include metabolites also in the routine analysis to obtain a mass balance for better understanding of the occurrence, fate and distribution of antibiotics in the environment. ^ Finally, all the antibiotics detected in reclaimed and surface waters were investigated to assess the potential risk to the aquatic organisms. The surface water antibiotic concentrations that represented the real time exposure conditions revealed that the macrolide antibiotics, erythromycin, clarithromycin and tylosin along with quinolone antibiotic, ciprofloxacin were suspected to induce high toxicity to aquatic biota. Preliminary results showing that, among the antibiotic groups tested, macrolides posed the highest ecological threat, and therefore, they may need to be further evaluated with, long-term exposure studies considering bioaccumulation factors and more number of species selected. Overall, the occurrence of antibiotics in aquatic environment is posing an ecological health concern.^

"To hold the world in contempt": The British Empire, war, and the Irish and Indian nationalist press, 1899–1914

The era between the close of the nineteenth century and the onset of the First World War witnessed a marked increase in radical agitation among Indian and Irish nationalists. The most outspoken political leaders of the day founded a series of widely circulated newspapers in India and Ireland, placing these editors in the enviable position of both reporting and creating the news. Nationalist journalists were in the vanguard of those pressing vocally for an independent India and Ireland, and together constituted an increasingly problematic contingent for the British Empire. The advanced-nationalist press in Ireland and the nationalist press in India took the lead in facilitating the exchange of provocative ideas--raising awareness of perceived imperial injustices, offering strategic advice, and cementing international solidarity. Irish and Indian press coverage of Britain's imperial wars constituted one of the premier weapons in the nationalists' arsenal, permitting them to build support for their ideology and forward their agenda in a manner both rapid and definitive. Directing their readers' attention to conflicts overseas proved instructive in how the Empire dealt with those who resisted its policies, and also showcased how it conducted its affairs with its allies. As such, critical press coverage of the Boxer Rebellion, Boer War, Russo-Japanese War, and World War I bred disaffection for the Empire, while attempts by the Empire to suppress the critiques further alienated the public. This dissertation offers the first comparative analysis of the major nationalist press organs in India and Ireland, using the prism of war to illustrate the increasingly persuasive role of the press in promoting resistance to the Empire. It focuses on how the leading Indian and Irish editors not only fostered a nationalist agenda within their own countries, but also worked in concert to construct a global anti-imperialist platform. By highlighting the anti-imperial rhetoric of the nationalist press in India and Ireland and illuminating their strategies for attaining self-government, this study deepens understanding of the seeds of nationalism, making a contribution to comparative imperial scholarship, and demonstrating the power of the media to alter imperial dynamics and effect political change.

An Integrated Flow and Transport Model to Study the Impact of Mercury Remediation Strategies for East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

An integrated flow and transport model using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 software was developed to predict the flow and transport of mercury, Hg(II), under varying environmental conditions. The model analyzed the impact of remediation scenarios within the East Fork Poplar Creek watershed of the Oak Ridge Reservation with respect to downstream concentration of mercury. The numerical simulations included the entire hydrological cycle: flow in rivers, overland flow, groundwater flow in the saturated and unsaturated zones, and evapotranspiration and precipitation time series. Stochastic parameters and hydrologic conditions over a five year period of historical hydrological data were used to analyze the hydrological cycle and to determine the prevailing mercury transport mechanism within the watershed. Simulations of remediation scenarios revealed that reduction of the highly contaminated point sources, rather than general remediation of the contaminant plume, has a more direct impact on downstream mercury concentrations.

Risk and resilience factors associated with delinquent behavior among African American adolescent males

Juvenile crime is a social problem of increasing concern to many citizens in the United States. In 2000, there were an estimated 2.4 million juvenile arrests for a variety of crimes ranging from misdemeanors to violent felony offenses. African American males are disproportionately represented among juvenile offenders in the United States. In 2000, black youth were approximately 16% of the U.S. population between the ages of 10-17; however, they accounted for 42% of juvenile arrests for violent crime. This study explored putative factors associated with juvenile offending among a sample of African American adolescent males. The independent variables in this study were academic achievement, religiosity, parenting styles and discrimination. The dependent variables were delinquent behavior and arrest. The data used in this study were from a larger NIDA funded longitudinal study that included approximately 425 African American youths. The data collection method involved structured interviews and questionnaires. The participants for the original study were selected via random sampling from all students attending middle school in Miami-Dade County. The study examined the hypotheses that African American males retrospectively reporting (a) high academic achievement, (b) high religiosity, (c) authoritarian parenting and (d) low perceptions of discrimination are less likely to be involved in delinquent behavior and are also less likely to be arrested. Results indicated that among African American adolescent males, delinquent behavior had a significant relationship (p The findings indicated that experimental studies are needed to clarify cause and effect relationship among the variables associated with juvenile offending among African American males, which may differ from those associated with juvenile offending among other groups.

Coccolithophore abundance and biometry in the South China Sea, 2014

Coccolithophore contributions to the global marine carbon cycle are regulated by the calcite content of their scales (coccoliths), and the relative cellular levels of photosynthesis and calcification. All three of these factors vary between coccolithophore species, and with response to the growth environment. Here, water samples were collected in the northern basin of the South China Sea (SCS) during summer 2014 in order to examine how environmental variability influenced species composition and cellular levels of calcite content. The vertical structure of the coccolithophore community was strongly regulated by mesoscale eddies. All living coccolithophores produced within the euphotic zone (1 % of surface irradiance), and Florisphaera profunda was a substantial coccolithophore and coccolith-calcite producer in the Deep Chlorophyll-a Maximum (DCM), especially in most oligotrophic anti-cyclonic eddy centers. Placolith-bearing coccolithophores, plus F. profunda, and other larger and numerically rare species made almost equal contributions to coccolith-based calcite in the water column. For Emiliania huxleyi biometry measurements, coccolith size positively correlated with nutrients, and it is suggested that coccolith length is influenced by nutrient and light related growth rates. However, larger sized coccoliths were related to low pH and calcite saturation, although it is not a simple cause and effect relationship. Genotypic or ecophenotypic variation may also be linked to coccolith size variation.

The use of modelling in purchasing/supply management research

The purpose of this research to explore the use of modelling in the field of Purchasing and Supply Management (P/SM). We are particularly interested in identifying the specific areas of P/SM where there are opportunities for the use of modelling based methods. The paper starts with an overview of main types of modelling and also provides a categorisation of the main P/SM research themes. Our research shows that there are many opportunities for using descriptive, predictive and prescriptive modelling approaches in all areas of P/SM research from the ones with a focus on the actual function from a purely operational and execution perspective (e.g. purchasing processes and behaviour) to the ones with a focus on the organisational level from a more strategic perspective (e.g. strategy and policy). We conclude that future P/SM research needs to explore the value of modelling not just at the functional or operational level, but also at the organisation and strategic level respectively. We also acknowledge that while using empirical results to inform and improve models has advantages, there are also drawbacks, which relate to the value, the practical relevance and the generalisability of the modelling based approaches.

Studies in Aetiology and Historical Methodology in Herodotus

This dissertation interrogates existing scholarly paradigms regarding aetiology in the Histories of Herodotus in order to open up new avenues to approach a complex and varied topic. Since aetiology has mostly been treated as the study of cause and effect in the Histories, this work expands the purview of aetiology to include Herodotus’ explanations of origins more generally. The overarching goal in examining the methodological principles of Herodotean aetiology is to show the extent to which they resonate across the Histories according to their initial development in the proem, especially in those places that seem to deviate from the work’s driving force (i.e. the Persian Wars). Though the focus is on correlating the principles espoused in the proem with their deployment in Herodotus’ ethnographies and other seemingly divergent portions of his work, the dissertation also demonstrates the influence of these principles on some of the more “historical” aspects of the Histories where the struggle between Greeks and barbarians is concerned. The upshot is to make a novel case not only for the programmatic significance of the proem, but also for the cohesion of Herodotean methodology from cover to cover, a perennial concern for scholars of Greek history and historiography.

Chapter One illustrates how the proem to the Histories (1.1.0-1.5.3) prefigures Herodotus’ engagement with aetiological discussions throughout the Histories. Chapter Two indicates how the reading of the proem laid out in Chapter One allows for Herodotus’ deployment of aetiology in the Egyptian logos (especially where the pharaoh Psammetichus’ investigation of the origins of Egyptian language, nature, and custom are concerned) to be viewed within the methodological continuum of the Histories at large. Chapter Three connects Herodotus’ programmatic interest in the origins of erga (i.e. “works” or “achievements” manifested as monuments and deeds of abstract and concrete sorts) with the patterns addressed in Chapters One and Two. Chapter Four examines aetiological narratives in the Scythian logos and argues through them that this logos is as integral to the Histories as the analogous Egyptian logos studied in Chapter Two. Chapter Five demonstrates how the aetiologies associated with the Greeks’ collaboration with the Persians (i.e. medism) in the lead-up to the battle of Thermopylae recapitulate programmatic patterns isolated in previous chapters and thereby extend the methodological continuum of the Histories beyond the “ethnographic” logoi to some of the most representative “historical” logoi of Herodotus’ work. Chapter Six concludes the dissertation and makes one final case for methodological cohesion by showing the inextricability of the end of the Histories from its beginning.

Effects of Natural Organic Matter on the Dissolution Kinetics and Bioavailability of Metal Oxide Nanoparticles

The rapid development of nanotechnology and wider applications of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in the last few decades have generated concerns regarding their environmental and health risks. After release into the environment, ENMs undergo aggregation, transformation, and, for metal-based nanomaterials, dissolution processes, which together determine their fate, bioavailability and toxicity to living organisms in the ecosystems. The rates of these processes are dependent on nanomaterial characteristics as well as complex environmental factors, including natural organic matter (NOM). As a ubiquitous component of aquatic systems, NOM plays a key role in the aggregation, dissolution and transformation of metal-based nanomaterials and colloids in aquatic environments.

The goal of this dissertation work is to investigate how NOM fractions with different chemical and molecular properties affect the dissolution kinetics of metal oxide ENMs, such as zinc oxide (ZnO) and copper oxide (CuO) nanoparticles (NPs), and consequently their bioavailability to aquatic vertebrate, with Gulf killifish (Fundulus grandis) embryos as model organisms.

ZnO NPs are known to dissolve at relatively fast rates, and the rate of dissolution is influenced by water chemistry, including the presence of Zn-chelating ligands. A challenge, however, remains in quantifying the dissolution of ZnO NPs, particularly for time scales that are short enough to determine rates. This dissertation assessed the application of anodic stripping voltammetry (ASV) with a hanging mercury drop electrode to directly measure the concentration of dissolved Zn in ZnO NP suspensions, without separation of the ZnO NPs from the aqueous phase. Dissolved zinc concentration measured by ASV ([Zn]ASV) was compared with that measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) after ultracentrifugation ([Zn]ICP-MS), for four types of ZnO NPs with different coatings and primary particle diameters. For small ZnO NPs (4-5 nm), [Zn]ASV was 20% higher than [Zn]ICP-MS, suggesting that these small NPs contributed to the voltammetric measurement. For larger ZnO NPs (approximately 20 nm), [Zn]ASV was (79±19)% of [Zn]ICP-MS, despite the high concentrations of ZnO NPs in suspension, suggesting that ASV can be used to accurately measure the dissolution kinetics of ZnO NPs of this primary particle size.

Using the ASV technique to directly measure dissolved zinc concentration, we examined the effects of 16 different NOM isolates on the dissolution kinetics of ZnO NPs in buffered potassium chloride solution. The observed dissolution rate constants (kobs) and dissolved zinc concentrations at equilibrium increased linearly with NOM concentration (from 0 to 40 mg-C L-1) for Suwannee River humic acid (SRHA), Suwannee River fulvic acid and Pony Lake fulvic acid. When dissolution rates were compared for the 16 NOM isolates, kobs was positively correlated with certain properties of NOM, including specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA), aromatic and carbonyl carbon contents, and molecular weight. Dissolution rate constants were negatively correlated to hydrogen/carbon ratio and aliphatic carbon content. The observed correlations indicate that aromatic carbon content is a key factor in determining the rate of NOM-promoted dissolution of ZnO NPs. NOM isolates with higher SUVA were also more effective at enhancing the colloidal stability of the NPs; however, the NOM-promoted dissolution was likely due to enhanced interactions between surface metal ions and NOM rather than smaller aggregate size.

Based on the above results, we designed experiments to quantitatively link the dissolution kinetics and bioavailability of CuO NPs to Gulf killifish embryos under the influence of NOM. The CuO NPs dissolved to varying degrees and at different rates in diluted 5‰ artificial seawater buffered to different pH (6.3-7.5), with or without selected NOM isolates at various concentrations (0.1-10 mg-C L-1). NOM isolates with higher SUVA and aromatic carbon content (such as SRHA) were more effective at promoting the dissolution of CuO NPs, as with ZnO NPs, especially at higher NOM concentrations. On the other hand, the presence of NOM decreased the bioavailability of dissolved Cu ions, with the uptake rate constant negatively correlated to dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) multiplied by SUVA, a combined parameter indicative of aromatic carbon concentration in the media. When the embryos were exposed to CuO NP suspension, changes in their Cu content were due to the uptake of both dissolved Cu ions and nanoparticulate CuO. The uptake rate constant of nanoparticulate CuO was also negatively correlated to [DOC]×SUVA, in a fashion roughly proportional to changes in dissolved Cu uptake rate constant. Thus, the ratio of uptake rate constants from dissolved Cu and nanoparticulate CuO (ranging from 12 to 22, on average 17±4) were insensitive to NOM type or concentration. Instead, the relative contributions of these two Cu forms were largely determined by the percentage of CuO NP that was dissolved.

Overall, this dissertation elucidated the important role that dissolved NOM plays in affecting the environmental fate and bioavailability of soluble metal-based nanomaterials. This dissertation work identified aromatic carbon content and its indicator SUVA as key NOM properties that influence the dissolution, aggregation and biouptake kinetics of metal oxide NPs and highlighted dissolution rate as a useful functional assay for assessing the relative contributions of dissolved and nanoparticulate forms to metal bioavailability. Findings of this dissertation work will be helpful for predicting the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials.

Fleshing Out and Losing Flesh: The Decomposing Corpse as Narrative Object in American Hardboiled Detective Fiction

This dissertation examines the corpse as an object in and of American hardboiled detective fiction written between 1920 and 1950. I deploy several theoretical frames, including narratology, body-as-text theory, object relations theory, and genre theory, in order to demonstrate the significance of objects, symbols, and things primarily in the clever and crafty work of Dashiell Hammett (1894-1961) and Raymond Chandler (1888-1959), but also touching on the writings of their lesser known accomplices. I construct a literary genealogy of American hardboiled detective fiction originating in the writings of Edgar Allan Poe, compare the contributions of classic or Golden Age detective fiction in England, and describe the socio-economic contexts, particularly the predominance of the “pulps,” that gave birth to the realism of the Hardboiled School. Taking seriously Chandler’s obsession with the art of murder, I engage with how authors pre-empt their readers’ knowledge of the tricks of the trade and manipulate their expectations, as well as discuss the characteristics and effect of the inimitable hardboiled style, its sharpshooting language and deadpan humour. Critical scholarship has rarely addressed the body and figure of the corpse, preferring to focus instead on the machinations of the femme fatale, the performance of masculinity, or the prevalence of violence. I cast new light on the world of hardboiled detective fiction by dissecting the corpse as the object that both motivates and de-composes (or rots away from) the narrative that makes it signify. I treat the corpse as an inanimate object, indifferent to representation, that destabilizes the integrity and self-possession, as well as the ratiocination, of the detective who authors the narrative of how the corpse came to be. The corpse is all deceptive and dangerous surface rather than the container of hidden depths of life and meaning that the detective hopes to uncover and reconstruct. I conclude with a chapter that is both critical denouement and creative writing experiment to reveal the self-reflexive (and at times metafictional) dimensions of hardboiled fiction. My dissertation, too, in the manner of hardboiled fiction, hopes to incriminate my readers as much as enlighten them.

Estimation of Sample Size and Power For Quantile Regression

Quantile regression (QR) was first introduced by Roger Koenker and Gilbert Bassett in 1978. It is robust to outliers which affect least squares estimator on a large scale in linear regression. Instead of modeling mean of the response, QR provides an alternative way to model the relationship between quantiles of the response and covariates. Therefore, QR can be widely used to solve problems in econometrics, environmental sciences and health sciences. Sample size is an important factor in the planning stage of experimental design and observational studies. In ordinary linear regression, sample size may be determined based on either precision analysis or power analysis with closed form formulas. There are also methods that calculate sample size based on precision analysis for QR like C.Jennen-Steinmetz and S.Wellek (2005). A method to estimate sample size for QR based on power analysis was proposed by Shao and Wang (2009). In this paper, a new method is proposed to calculate sample size based on power analysis under hypothesis test of covariate effects. Even though error distribution assumption is not necessary for QR analysis itself, researchers have to make assumptions of error distribution and covariate structure in the planning stage of a study to obtain a reasonable estimate of sample size. In this project, both parametric and nonparametric methods are provided to estimate error distribution. Since the method proposed can be implemented in R, user is able to choose either parametric distribution or nonparametric kernel density estimation for error distribution. User also needs to specify the covariate structure and effect size to carry out sample size and power calculation. The performance of the method proposed is further evaluated using numerical simulation. The results suggest that the sample sizes obtained from our method provide empirical powers that are closed to the nominal power level, for example, 80%.

Laboratory Investigation of Diluted Bitumen Trapping and Dissolution in Gravel

The Canadian economy is largely dependent on the distribution of large volumes of oil to domestic and international markets by a long network of pipelines. Unfortunately, accidents occur, and oil can leak or spill from these pipelines before it reaches its destination. Of particular concern are the long-term consequences of oil spills in freshwater, which include sinking of oil in water and the contamination of sensitive areas, such as where fish (e.g., salmon) deposit their eggs in gravel-dominated river sediments. There is a knowledge gap regarding the fate and behaviour of oil in river sediment. To this end, this study aimed at finding the potential for diluted bitumen (dilbit) oil to become trapped in gravel and to transfer hydrocarbons into water by dissolution, which are harmful to aquatic life. Two sets of laboratory experiments were conducted to simulate conditions of an oil spill on an exposed bank or in shallow water. In the first set, by conducting capillary pressure-saturation (Pc-Sw) experiments it was found that dilbit can enter gravel pores without much resistance and approximately 14% of the pore volume can be occupied by discontinuous single or multipore blobs of dilbit following imbibition of water. Air-water Pc-Sw experiments done in laboratory 1-D columns required gravity correction and could be successfully scaled to predict dilbit-water Pc-Sw curves, except for the trapped amount of dilbit. Trapped dilbit constituents can be dissolved into the water flowing through gravel pores (hyporheic flow) at different velocities. In the second set, dissolution experiments suggested that for the duration of the test, hydrocarbons that cause acute toxicity dissolve rapidly, likely resulting in a decrease in their effective solubility. However, dilbit saturation changed only <2% within that time. Chronically toxic PAH compounds were also detected in the effluent water. The total concentration of all detected PAHs and alkylPAHs exceeded the threshold literature value to protect early-life stage fish. Observations of decreased concentrations with increased aqueous velocities as well as less than equilibrium concentrations indicated that the mass transfer was rate-limited. A correlation was developed for the mass transfer rate coefficient to understand the mass transfer behaviour beyond the conditions used in the experiments, which had a Reynolds number exponent similar to the studies of NAPL dissolution in groundwater.

The Most Complete Photometric Analysis of 548 CALIFA Galaxies

We present an extensive photometric catalog for 548 CALIFA galaxies observed as of the summer of 2015. CALIFA is currently lacking photometry matching the scale and diversity of its spectroscopy; this work is intended to meet all photometric needs for CALIFA galaxies while also identifying best photometric practices for upcoming integral field spectroscopy surveys such as SAMI and MaNGA. This catalog comprises gri surface brightness profiles derived from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) imaging, a variety of non-parametric quantities extracted from these pro files, and parametric models fitted to the i-band pro files (1D) and original galaxy images (2D). To compliment our photometric analysis, we contrast the relative performance of our 1D and 2D modelling approaches. The ability of each measurement to characterize the global properties of galaxies is quantitatively assessed, in the context of constructing the tightest scaling relations. Where possible, we compare our photometry with existing photometrically or spectroscopically obtained measurements from the literature. Close agreement is found with Walcher et al. (2014), the current source of basic photometry and classifications of CALIFA galaxies, while comparisons with spectroscopically derived quantities reveals the effect of CALIFA's limited field of view compared to broadband imaging surveys such as the SDSS. The colour-magnitude diagram, star formation main sequence, and Tully-Fisher relation of CALIFA galaxies are studied, to give a small example of the investigations possible with this rich catalog. We conclude with a discussion of points of concern for ongoing integral field spectroscopy surveys and directions for future expansion and exploitation of this work.

Hormonal factors and insulin-like growth factor-1 in North American postmenopausal women

Background: Mechanisms underlying the effect of estrogen exposure on breast cancer risk remain unclear. Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) levels have been positively associated with breast cancer and are a potential mechanism. Objectives: The objectives of this thesis are: 1) to explore whether the reproductive risk factors and the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles (LCMC), as measures for long-term estrogen exposure, are associated with IGF-1 levels, and 2) to examine the effect of an aromatase inhibitor (AI) on IGF-1 levels, and the potential interaction with BMI. Methods: A cross sectional study and a randomized controlled trial nested with the MAP.3 chemoprevention trial were used to address objective 1 and 2, respectively. 567 postmenopausal women were selected. Anthropometric measurements, lifestyle factors, reproductive characteristics and serum IGF-1 concentrations were collected at baseline and one year. Objective 1. The LCMC was computed as a composite measure of the reproductive characteristics. Multivariable linear regression models were used to assess the association between IGF-1 levels and LCMC and the hormonal risk factors, while adjusting for potential covariates. Objective 2. Changes in IGF-1 were compared between the exemestane and placebo, and effect modification by BMI was tested with an interaction term. Results: Objective 1. Women aged 55 years or older at menopause had 16.26 ng/mL (95% CI: 1.76, 30.75) higher IGF-1 compared to women aged less than 50 years at menopause. Women in the highest category of menstrual cycles (≥500 cycles) had an average 19.00 ng/mL (95%CI: 5.86, 32.14) higher concentration of IGF-1 compared to women in the lowest category (<350). Exogenous hormones had no effect on postmenopausal IGF-1 levels. Objective 2. Exemestane significantly increased IGF-1 levels by 18% (95% CI: 14%-22%); while, placebo had no effect on IGF-1. The changes in IGF-1 were significantly different between the treatment arms (P<0.0001) and no significant interaction was observed between treatment and BMI on IGF-1 changes (P=0.1327). Conclusion: Objective 1. Larger number of menstrual cycles and a later age at menopause are positively associated with IGF-1. IGF-1 may be one mechanism by which prolonged estrogen exposure increases cancer risk. Objective 2. We conclude that the reduced cancer risk observed with AI therapy likely occurs in an IGF-1 independent mechanism. Further studies exploring the clinical consequences of increased IGF-1 on AI therapy are needed.

How the World Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Failure: Big Data, Resilience and Emergent Causality

In modernity, failure was the discourse of critique, today, it is increasingly the discourse of power: failure has changed its allegiances. Over the last two decades, failure has been enfolded into discourses of power, facilitating the development of new policy approaches. Foremost among governing approaches that seek to include and to govern through failure is that of resilience. This article seeks to reflect upon how the understanding of failure has become transformed in this process, particularly linking this transformation to the radical appreciation of contingency and of the limits to instrumental cause-and-effect approaches to rule. Whereas modernity was shaped by a contestation over failure as an epistemological boundary, under conditions of contingency and complexity there appears to be a new consensus on failure as an ontological necessity. This problematic ‘ontological turn’ is illustrated using examples of changing approaches to risks, especially anthropogenic understandings of environmental threats, formerly seen as ‘natural’.

The discrepancy between social isolation and loneliness as a clinically meaningful metric: findings from the Irish and English longitudinal studies of ageing (TILDA and ELSA)

Objective
Scant evidence is available on the discordance between loneliness and social isolation among older adults. We aimed to investigate this discordance and any health implications that it may have.

Method
Using nationally representative datasets from ageing cohorts in Ireland (TILDA) and England (ELSA), we created a metric of discordance between loneliness and social isolation, to which we refer as Social Asymmetry. This metric was the categorised difference between standardised scores on a scale of loneliness and a scale of social isolation, giving categories of: Concordantly Lonely and Isolated, Discordant: Robust to Loneliness, or Discordant: Susceptible to Loneliness. We used regression and multilevel modelling to identify potential relationships between Social Asymmetry and cognitive outcomes.

Results
Social Asymmetry predicted cognitive outcomes cross-sectionally and at a two-year follow-up, such that Discordant: Robust to Loneliness individuals were superior performers, but we failed to find evidence for Social Asymmetry as a predictor of cognitive trajectory over time.

Conclusions
We present a new metric and preliminary evidence of a relationship with clinical outcomes. Further research validating this metric in different populations, and evaluating its relationship with other outcomes, is warranted.