Reactive stepping behaviour in response to forward loss of balance predicts future falls in community-dwelling older adults

Background: a fall occurs when an individual experiences a loss of balance from which they are unable to recover. Assessment of balance recovery ability in older adults may therefore help to identify individuals at risk of falls. The purpose of this 12-month prospective study was to assess whether the ability to recover from a forward loss of balance with a single step across a range of lean magnitudes was predictive of falls. Methods: two hundred and one community-dwelling older adults, aged 65–90 years, underwent baseline testing of sensorimotor function and balance recovery ability followed by 12-month prospective falls evaluation. Balance recovery ability was defined by whether participants required either single or multiple steps to recover from forward loss of balance from three lean magnitudes, as well as the maximum lean magnitude participants could recover from with a single step. Results: forty-four (22%) participants experienced one or more falls during the follow-up period. Maximal recoverable lean magnitude and use of multiple steps to recover at the 15% body weight (BW) and 25%BW lean magnitudes significantly predicted a future fall (odds ratios 1.08–1.26). The Physiological Profile Assessment, an established tool that assesses variety of sensori-motor aspects of falls risk, was also predictive of falls (Odds ratios 1.22 and 1.27, respectively), whereas age, sex, postural sway and timed up and go were not predictive. Conclusion: reactive stepping behaviour in response to forward loss of balance and physiological profile assessment are independent predictors of a future fall in community-dwelling older adults. Exercise interventions designed to improve reactive stepping behaviour may protect against future falls.

Bioeconomic modelling and risk assessment of tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia

A bioeconomic model was developed to evaluate the potential performance of brown tiger prawn stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia. This paper presents the framework for the bioeconomic model and risk assessment for all components of a stock enhancement operation, i.e. hatchery, grow-out, releasing, population dynamics, fishery, and monitoring, for a commercial scale enhancement of about 100 metric tonnes, a 25% increase in average annual catch in Exmouth Gulf. The model incorporates uncertainty in estimates of parameters by using a distribution for the parameter over a certain range, based on experiments, published data, or similar studies. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to quantify the effects of these uncertainties on the model-output and on the economic potential of a particular production target. The model incorporates density-dependent effects in the nursery grounds of brown tiger prawns. The results predict that a release of 21 million 1 g prawns would produce an estimated enhanced prawn catch of about 100 t. This scale of enhancement has a 66.5% chance of making a profit. The largest contributor to the overall uncertainty of the enhanced prawn catch was the post-release mortality, followed by the density-dependent mortality caused by released prawns. These two mortality rates are most difficult to estimate in practice and are much under-researched in stock enhancement.

Systematic integration of human factors in the specification of requirements for new railway technologies

Engineering design processes are necessary to attain the requisite standards of integrity for high-assurance safety-related systems. Additionally, human factors design initiatives can provide critical insights that parameterise their development. Unfortunately, the popular perception of human factors as a “forced marriage” between engineering and psychology often provokes views where the ‘human factor’ is perceived as a threat to systems design. Some popular performance-based standards for developing safety-related systems advocate identifying and managing human factors throughout the system lifecycle. However, they also have a tendency to fall short in their guidance on the application of human factors methods and tools, let alone how the outputs generated can be integrated in to various stages of the design process. This case study describes a project that converged engineering with human factors to develop a safety argument for new low-cost railway level crossing technology for system-wide implementation in Australia. The paper enjoins the perspectives of a software engineer and cognitive psychologist and their involvement in the project over two years of collaborative work to develop a safety argument for low-cost level crossing technology. Safety and reliability requirements were informed by applying human factors analytical tools that supported the evaluation and quantification of human reliability where users interfaced with the technology. The project team was confronted with significant challenges in cross-disciplinary engagement, particularly with the complexities of dealing with incongruences in disciplinary language. They were also encouraged to think ‘outside the box’ as to how users of a system interpreted system states and ehaviour. Importantly, some of these states, while considered safe within the boundary of the constituent systems that implemented safety-related functions, could actually lead the users to engage in deviant behaviour. Psychology explained how user compliance could be eroded to levels that effectively undermined levels of risk reduction afforded by systems. Linking the engineering and psychology disciplines intuitively, overall safety performance was improved by introducing technical requirements and making design decisions that minimized the system states and behaviours that led to user deviancy. As a commentary on the utility of transdisciplinary collaboration for technical specification, the processes used to bridge the two disciplines are conceptualised in a graphical model.

Mapping eQTLs in the Norfolk Island genetic isolate identifies candidate genes for CVD risk traits

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) affects millions of people worldwide and is influenced by numerous factors, including lifestyle and genetics. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) influence gene expression and are good candidates for CVD risk. Founder-effect pedigrees can provide additional power to map genes associated with disease risk. Therefore, we identified eQTLs in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island (NI) and tested for associations between these and CVD risk factors. We measured genome-wide transcript levels of blood lymphocytes in 330 individuals and used pedigree-based heritability analysis to identify heritable transcripts. eQTLs were identified by genome-wide association testing of these transcripts. Testing for association between CVD risk factors (i.e., blood lipids, blood pressure, and body fat indices) and eQTLs revealed 1,712 heritable transcripts (p < 0.05) with heritability values ranging from 0.18 to 0.84. From these, we identified 200 cis-acting and 70 trans-acting eQTLs (p < 1.84 × 10(-7)) An eQTL-centric analysis of CVD risk traits revealed multiple associations, including 12 previously associated with CVD-related traits. Trait versus eQTL regression modeling identified four CVD risk candidates (NAAA, PAPSS1, NME1, and PRDX1), all of which have known biological roles in disease. In addition, we implicated several genes previously associated with CVD risk traits, including MTHFR and FN3KRP. We have successfully identified a panel of eQTLs in the NI pedigree and used this to implicate several genes in CVD risk. Future studies are required for further assessing the functional importance of these eQTLs and whether the findings here also relate to outbred populations.

Root caries patterns and risk factors of middle-aged and elderly people in China

The objectives of this study were to describe root caries patterns of Chinese adults and to analyze the effect of selected demographic and socioeconomic factors on these patterns. A total sample of 1080 residents aged 35-44-years-old and 1080 residents aged 65-74-years-old from three urban and three rural survey sites in Hubei Province participated in both an oral health interview and a clinical oral health examination. Root surface caries prevalence rates were 13.1% in the middle-aged group and 43.9% in the elderly group. The mean number of teeth affected by caries in the middle-aged group was reported at 0.21 and 1.0 in the elderly group. Mean Root Caries Index (RCI) scores of the middle-aged were reported at 6.29 and elderly subjects were reported at 11.95. Elderly people living in rural areas reported a higher RCI score (13.24) than those living in urban areas (10.70). A significantly higher frequency of root surface caries was observed in elderly participants (P < 0.001, OR = 3.80) and ethnic minorities (P < 0.001, OR = 1.93). In addition, smokers, nontea drinkers, and those with an annual household income of 10,000 yuan or less tended to have higher caries prevalence. RCI figures for the different tooth types ranged from 1% to 16%, indicating a wide variation in attack rates. In conclusion, our study suggests that root surface caries occurrence is high among the Chinese adult population, especially older adults. With an increasing number of retained teeth in both middle-aged and elderly people, root caries is a growing disease in the People's Republic of China which deserves more attention in future research.

Molecular profiling of human mammary gland links breast cancer risk to a p27(+) cell population with progenitor characteristics

Early full-term pregnancy is one of the most effective natural protections against breast cancer. To investigate this effect, we have characterized the global gene expression and epigenetic profiles of multiple cell types from normal breast tissue of nulliparous and parous women and carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. We found significant differences in CD44+ progenitor cells, where the levels of many stem cell-related genes and pathways, including the cell-cycle regulator p27, are lower in parous women without BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations. We also noted a significant reduction in the frequency of CD44+p27+ cells in parous women and showed, using explant cultures, that parity-related signaling pathways play a role in regulating the number of p27+ cells and their proliferation. Our results suggest that pathways controlling p27+ mammary epithelial cells and the numbers of these cells relate to breast cancer risk and can be explored for cancer risk assessment and prevention.

Aligning off-balance sheet risk, on-balance sheet risk and audit fees: a PLS path modelling analysis

This study focuses on using the partial least squares (PLS) path modelling technique in archival auditing research by replicating the data and research questions from prior bank audit fee studies. PLS path modelling allows for inter-correlations among audit fee determinants by establishing latent constructs and multiple relationship paths in one simultaneous PLS path model. Endogeneity concerns about auditor choice can also be addressed with PLS path modelling. With a sample of US bank holding companies for the period 2003-2009, we examine the associations among on-balance sheet financial risks, off-balance sheet risks and audit fees, and also address the pervasive client size effect, and the effect of the self-selection of auditors. The results endorse the dominating effect of size on audit fees, both directly and indirectly via its impacts on other audit fee determinants. By simultaneously considering the self-selection of auditors, we still find audit fee premiums on Big N auditors, which is the second important factor on audit fee determination. On-balance-sheet financial risk measures in terms of capital adequacy, loan composition, earnings and asset quality performance have positive impacts on audit fees. After allowing for the positive influence of on-balance sheet financial risks and entity size on off-balance sheet risk, the off-balance sheet risk measure, SECRISK, is still positively associated with bank audit fees, both before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The consistent results from this study compared with prior literature provide supporting evidence and enhance confidence on the application of this new research technique in archival accounting studies.

Aligning off-balance sheet risk, on-balance sheet risk and audit fees: a PLS path modelling analysis

This study focuses on using the partial least squares (PLS) path modelling methodology in archival auditing research by replicating the data and research questions from prior bank audit fee studies. PLS path modelling allows for inter-correlations among audit fee determinants by establishing latent constructs and multiple relationship paths in one simultaneous PLS path model. Endogeneity concerns about auditor choice can also be addressed with PLS path modelling. With a sample of US bank holding companies for the period 2003-2009, we examine the associations among on-balance sheet financial risks, off-balance sheet risks and audit fees, and also address the pervasive client size effect, and the effect of the self-selection of auditors. The results endorse the dominating effect of size on audit fees, both directly and indirectly via its impacts on other audit fee determinants. By simultaneously considering the self-selection of auditors, we still find audit fee premiums on Big N auditors, which is the second important factor on audit fee determination. On-balance-sheet financial risk measures in terms of capital adequacy, loan composition, earnings and asset quality performance have positive impacts on audit fees. After allowing for the positive influence of on-balance sheet financial risks and entity size on off-balance sheet risk, the off-balance sheet risk measure, SECRISK, is still positively associated with bank audit fees, both before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The consistent results from this study compared with prior literature provide supporting evidence and enhance confidence on the application of this new research technique in archival accounting studies.

Braving a New World : Design Interventions for Changing Climates. Papers from the Subtropical Cities 2013 Fall Conference of the Association of Collegiate Schools of Architecture (ACSA)

We no longer have the luxury of time as the effects of climate change are being felt, according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, on every continent and in every ocean. More than 50% of the population of the United States and 85% of Australians live in coastal regions. The number of people living in the world’s coastal regions is expected to increase along with the need to improve capacity to mitigate hazards , and manage the multiple risks that have been identified by the scientific community. Under the auspices of the Association of Collegiate Schools of Architecture (ACSA) design academics and practitioners from the Americas, Asia, and Australia met in Fort Lauderdale, Florida for the fourth Subtropical Cities international conference to share outcomes of research and new pedagogies to address the critical transformation of the physical environments and infrastructures of the world’s vulnerable coastal communities. The theme of Subtropical Cities, adopted by the ACSA for its Fall 2014 Conference, is not confined entirely to a latitudinal or climatic frame of reference. The paper and project presentations addressed a range of theoretical, practice-led, and education-oriented research topics in architecture and urban design related to the subtropics, with emphasis on urban and coastal regions. More than half the papers originate from universities and practices in coastal regions. Threads emerged from a tapestry of localized investigations to reveal a more global understanding about possible futures we are designing for current and future generations. The one hundred-plus conference delegates and presenters represented 33 universities and institutions from across the United States, Mexico, Canada, Australia, the Middle East, Peru and China. Case studies from India, Morocco, Tahiti, Indonesia, Jordan, and Cambodia were also presented, expanding the global knowledge base. Co-authored submissions presented new directions for architecture and design, with a resounding theme of collaboration across diverse disciplines. The ability to deal with abstraction and complexity, and the capacity to develop synthesis and frameworks for defining problem boundaries can be considered key attributes of architectural thinking. Such a unique set of abilities can forge collaboration with different professional disciplines to achieve extraordinary outcomes. As the broad range of papers presented at this conference suggest, existing architectural and urban typologies and practices are increasingly considered part of the cause and not the solution to adapting to climate change and sea level rise. Design responses and the actions needed to generate new and unfamiliar forms of urbanism and infrastructure for defense, adaptation, and retreat in subtropical urban regions are being actively explored in academic design studios and research projects around the world. Many presentations propose provocative and experimental strategies as global climate moves beyond our “comfort zone”. The ideas presented at the Subtropical Cities conference are timely as options for low-energy passive climatic design are becoming increasingly limited in the context of changing climate. At the same time, ways of reducing or obsoleting energy intensive mechanical systems in densely populated urban centres present additional challenges for designers and communities as a whole. The conference was marked by a common theme of trans-disciplinary research, where design integration with emerging technologies resonate with a reaffirmation of the centrality of design thinking, expanding the scope of the traditional architecture studio pedagogy to integrate knowledge from other disciplines and the participation of diverse communities.

Subtropical Cities 2013 ACSA Fall Conference Design Interventions for Changing Climates. Projects

A collection of design projects accepted for exhibition at the 2013 ACSA Fall Conference.

Sequential monitoring of hospital adverse events when control charts fail : the example of fall injuries in hospitals

Objective To evaluate methods for monitoring monthly aggregated hospital adverse event data that display clustering, non-linear trends and possible autocorrelation. Design Retrospective audit. Setting The Northern Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Participants 171,059 patients admitted between January 2001 and December 2006. Measurements The analysis is illustrated with 72 months of patient fall injury data using a modified Shewhart U control chart, and charts derived from a quasi-Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) and a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that included an approximate upper control limit. Results The data were overdispersed and displayed a downward trend and possible autocorrelation. The downward trend was followed by a predictable period after December 2003. The GLM-estimated incidence rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) per month. The GAMM-fitted count fell from 12.67 (95% CI 10.05 to 15.97) in January 2001 to 5.23 (95% CI 3.82 to 7.15) in December 2006 (p<0.001). The corresponding values for the GLM were 11.9 and 3.94. Residual plots suggested that the GLM underestimated the rate at the beginning and end of the series and overestimated it in the middle. The data suggested a more rapid rate fall before 2004 and a steady state thereafter, a pattern reflected in the GAMM chart. The approximate upper two-sigma equivalent control limit in the GLM and GAMM charts identified 2 months that showed possible special-cause variation. Conclusion Charts based on GAMM analysis are a suitable alternative to Shewhart U control charts with these data.

Herpes simplex 2 risk among women in a polygynous setting in rural West Africa

OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors for herpes simplex 2 (HSV2) infection in women in a polygynous rural Gambian population. METHODS: Data from women who participated in a cross-sectional survey of reproductive health were matched to their own and, for women who had been or were married (ever-married), their spouses' data collected in a cross-sectional survey of fertility interests, including information on marital histories. RESULTS: Data were available on 150 never-married and 525 ever-married women. HSV2 prevalence was 16% amongst never-married women and 36% amongst ever-married women. For ever-married women, their own personal characteristics (age, ethnicity and genital cutting status) and events from their husbands' marriage history were important determinants of HSV2 infection. Women whose husbands married for the first time over age 35 were at greater risk than women whose husbands married by age 24 [odds ratio (OR) 2.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-6.10]. Women whose husband reported interest in a new marriage were more likely to be HSV2 positive (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.18-3.09). Women whose husbands were currently monogamous but had had previous marriages (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.30-5.88) and women in currently polygynous marriages (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.66-5.01) were three times as likely to be HSV2 positive as women who were their husband's only wife ever. CONCLUSION: Much transmission of HSV2 in this setting occurs within marriage where opportunity for personal protection is limited. High levels of transmission within marriage may undermine the impact of sexual behaviour change programmes aiming to reduce HSV2 and HIV incidence and complicate their evaluation.

In Response: "Oral versus IV treatment for catheter-related bloodstream infections - by Burke A. Cunha"

In his letter Cunha suggests that oral antibiotic therapy is safer and less expensive than intravenous therapy via central venous catheters (CVCs) (1). The implication is that costs will fall and increased health benefits will be enjoyed resulting in a gain in efficiency within the healthcare system. CVCs are often used in critically ill patients to deliver antimicrobial therapy, but expose patients to a risk of catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI). Our current knowledge about the efficiency (i.e. costeffectiveness) of allocating resources toward interventions that prevent CRBSI in patients requiring a CVC has already been reviewed (2). If for some patient groups antimicrobial therapy can be delivered orally, instead of through a CVC, then the costs and benefits of this alternate strategy should be evaluated...

A comparison of factors influencing perceived risk by French and Australian cyclists and drivers

Differences in the levels of risk perceived by cyclists and car drivers may contribute to the dangers in their interactions. Levels of perceived risk have been shown to vary according to personal and environmental factors and between countries. Cycling rates in France are higher than in Australia, particularly among women. This study investigated whether cultural differences between France and Australia are reflected in perceived risks for experienced adult cyclists and drivers in the two countries. In online surveys, regular cyclists (France 336, Australia 444) and drivers (France 92, Australia 151) were asked to rate the level of risk in six situations: failure to yield; going through a red light; not signalling when turning; swerving; tail-gating; and not checking traffic. The effects of type of interacting vehicle and participant type on perceived risk were similar in France and Australia. However, the influence of responsibility for the risky behaviour differed according to participant type, type of situation and nationality. When the bicycle rider committed the road rule violation, Australian cyclists and drivers gave higher risk ratings than French cyclists and drivers. In both countries, cyclists rated themselves significantly higher than drivers on the perceived control and overconfidence subscales of the perceived skill measure. The French cyclists rated themselves higher than Australian cyclists on these scales, which could be responsible for overall lower perceived risk levels when interacting with a bike. Australian cyclists rated themselves significantly lower than drivers on the incompetence subscale but French cyclists rated themselves higher than drivers. In both countries incompetence scores were positively related to levels of perceived risk. Weekly time was associated with perceived risk in Australia but not in France. Frequency of traffic violations was not associated with perceived risk in either country. In conclusion, levels of perceived risk differed between drivers and cyclists in both countries and were influenced by type of interacting vehicle, experience and perceived skill. However, some differences between the results from the two countries merit further investigation to shed light on potential improvements in safety and cycling participation.

Eccentric hamstring strength and hamstring injury risk in Australian footballers

Purpose Is eccentric hamstring strength and between limb imbalance in eccentric strength, measured during the Nordic hamstring exercise, a risk factor for hamstring strain injury (HSI)? Methods Elite Australian footballers (n=210) from five different teams participated. Eccentric hamstring strength during the Nordic was taken at the commencement and conclusion of preseason training and in season. Injury history and demographic data were also collected. Reports on prospectively occurring HSIs were completed by team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results Twenty-eight HSIs were recorded. Eccentric hamstring strength below 256N at the start of preseason and 279N at the end of preseason increased risk of future HSI 2.7 (relative risk, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.5; p = 0.006) and 4.3 fold (relative risk, 4.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 11.0; p = 0.002) respectively. Between limb imbalance in strength of greater than 10% did not increase the risk of future HSI. Univariate analysis did not reveal a significantly greater relative risk for future HSI in athletes who had sustained a lower limb injury of any kind within the last 12 months. Logistic regression revealed interactions between both athlete age and history of HSI with eccentric hamstring strength, whereby the likelihood of future HSI in older athletes or athletes with a history of HSI was reduced if an athlete had high levels of eccentric strength. Conclusion Low levels of eccentric hamstring strength increased the risk of future HSI. Interaction effects suggest that the additional risk of future HSI associated with advancing age or previous injury was mitigated by higher levels of eccentric hamstring strength.