Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Does 6-minutes walk test predict functional capacity in elderly people?

Portugal has an accentuated aging tendency, presenting an elderly population (individuals with more than 65 years old) of 19.2%. The average life expectancy is 79.2 years. Thus, it’s important to maintain autonomy and independency as long as possible. Functional ability concept rises from the need to evaluate the capacity to conduct daily activities in an independent way. It can be estimated with the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) and other validated test. This test is simple, reliable, valid and consists in a daily activity (walk). The goals of this study was to verify associations between functional capacity measured with two different instruments (6MWT and Composite Physical Function (CPF) scale) and between those results and characterization variables.

On the development of a test-bed application for the ART-WiSe architecture

The ART-WiSe (Architecture for Real-Time communications in Wireless Sensor Networks) framework aims at the design of new communication architectures and mechanisms for time-sensitive Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). We adopted a two-tiered architecture where an overlay Wireless Local Area Network (Tier 2) serves as a backbone for a WSN (Tier 1), relying on existing standard communication protocols and commercial-off-the-shell (COTS) technologies – IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee for Tier 1 and IEEE 802.11 for Tier 2. In this line, a test-bed application is being developed for assessing, validating and demonstrating the ART-WiSe architecture. A pursuit-evasion application was chosen since it fulfils a number of requirements, namely it is feasible and appealing and imposes some stress to the architecture in terms of timeliness. To develop the testbed based on the previously referred technologies, an implementation of the IEEE 8021.5.4/ZigBee protocols is being carried out, since there is no open source available to the community. This paper highlights some relevant aspects of the ART-WiSe architecture, provides some intuition on the protocol stack implementation and presents a general view over the envisaged test-bed application.

On a test-bed application for the ART-WiSe framework

This report describes the development of a Test-bed Application for the ART-WiSe Framework with the aim of providing a means of access, validate and demonstrate that architecture. The chosen application is a kind of pursuit-evasion game where a remote controlled robot, navigating through an area covered by wireless sensor network (WSN), is detected and continuously tracked by the WSN. Then a centralized control station takes the appropriate actions for a pursuit robot to chase and “capture” the intruder one. This kind of application imposes stringent timing requirements to the underlying communication infrastructure. It also involves interesting research problems in WSNs like tracking, localization, cooperation between nodes, energy concerns and mobility. Additionally, it can be easily ported into a real-world application. Surveillance or search and rescue operations are two examples where this kind of functionality can be applied. This is still a first approach on the test-bed application and this development effort will be continuously pushed forward until all the envisaged objectives for the Art-WiSe architecture become accomplished.

Numerical and experimental study of tensile strength of single and double-strap repairs

Adhesive bonding as a joining or repair method has a wide application in many industries. Repairs with bonded patches are often carried out to re-establish the stiffness at critical regions or spots of corrosion and/or fatigue cracks. Single and double-strap repairs (SS and DS, respectively) are a viable option for repairing. For the SS repairs, a patch is adhesively-bonded on one of the structure faces. SS repairs are easy to execute, but the load eccentricity leads to peel peak stresses at the overlap edges. DS repairs involve the use of two patches, one on each face of the structure. These are more efficient than SS repairs, due to the doubling of the bonding area and suppression of the transverse deflection of the adherends. Shear stresses also become more uniform as a result of smaller differential straining. The experimental and Finite Element (FE) study presented here for strength prediction and design optimization of bonded repairs includes SS and DS solutions with different values of overlap length (LO). The examined values of LO include 10, 20 and 30 mm. The failure strengths of the SS and DS repairs were compared with FE results by using the Abaqus® FE software. A Cohesive Zone Model (CZM) with a triangular shape in pure tensile and shear modes, including the mixed-mode possibility for crack growth, was used to simulate fracture of the adhesive layer. A good agreement was found between the experiments and the FE simulations on the failure modes, elastic stiffness and strength of the repairs, showing the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed FE technique in predicting strength of bonded repairs. Furthermore, some optimization principles were proposed to repair structures with adhesively-bonded patches that will allow repair designers to effectively design bonded repairs.

PV system modeling by five parameters and in Situ test

This paper focuses on a novel formalization for assessing the five parameter modeling of a photovoltaic cell. An optimization procedure is used as a feasibility problem to find the parameters tuned at the open circuit, maximum power, and short circuit points in order to assess the data needed for plotting the I-V curve. A comparison with experimental results is presented for two monocrystalline PV modules.

Buckling strength of adhesively-bonded single and double-strap repairs on carbon-epoxy structures

This work reports on an experimental and finite element method (FEM) parametric study of adhesively-bonded single and double-strap repairs on carbon-epoxy structures under buckling unrestrained compression. The influence of the overlap length and patch thickness was evaluated. This loading gains a particular significance from the additional characteristic mechanisms of structures under compression, such as fibres microbuckling, for buckling restrained structures, or global buckling of the assembly, if no transverse restriction exists. The FEM analysis is based on the use of cohesive elements including mixed-mode criteria to simulate a cohesive fracture of the adhesive layer. Trapezoidal laws in pure modes I and II were used to account for the ductility of most structural adhesives. These laws were estimated for the adhesive used from double cantilever beam (DCB) and end-notched flexure (ENF) tests, respectively, using an inverse technique. The pure mode III cohesive law was equalled to the pure mode II one. Compression failure in the laminates was predicted using a stress-based criterion. The accurate FEM predictions open a good prospect for the reduction of the extensive experimentation in the design of carbon-epoxy repairs. Design principles were also established for these repairs under buckling.

Shear modulus and strength of an acrylic adhesive by the notched plate shear method (Arcan) and the thick adherend shear test (TAST)

In this work, the shear modulus and strength of the acrylic adhesive 3M® DP 8005 was evaluated by two different methods: the Thick Adherend Shear Test (TAST) and the Notched Plate Shear Method (Arcan). However, TAST standards advise the use of a special extensometer attached to the specimen, which requires a very experienced technician. In the present study, the adhesive shear displacement for the TAST was measured using an optical technique, and also with a conventional inductive extensometer of 25 mm used for tensile tests. This allowed for an assessment of suitability of using a conventional extensometer to measure this parameter. Since the results obtained by the two techniques are identical, it can be concluded that using a conventional extensometer is a valid option to obtain the shear modulus for the particular adhesive used. In the Arcan tests, the adhesive shear displacement was only measured using the optical technique. This work also aimed the comparison of shear modulus and strength obtained by the TAST and Arcan test methods.

Using test infrastructures for (remote) online evaluation of the sensitivity to SEUs of FPGAs

This paper proposes an online mechanism that can evaluate the sensitivity of single event upsets (SEUs) of field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). The online detection mechanism cyclically reads and compares the values form the external and internal configuration memories, taking into account the mask information. This remote detection method also signals any mismatch as a result of a SEU that affects both used and not-used FPGA parts, which maximizes the monitored area. By utilizing an external, Web-accessible controller that is connected to the test infrastructure, the possibility of running the same operation in a remote manner is enabled. Moreover, the need for a local memory to store the mask values is also eliminated.

Strength prediction of single- and double-lap joints by standard and extended finite element modelling

The structural integrity of multi-component structures is usually determined by the strength and durability of their unions. Adhesive bonding is often chosen over welding, riveting and bolting, due to the reduction of stress concentrations, reduced weight penalty and easy manufacturing, amongst other issues. In the past decades, the Finite Element Method (FEM) has been used for the simulation and strength prediction of bonded structures, by strength of materials or fracture mechanics-based criteria. Cohesive-zone models (CZMs) have already proved to be an effective tool in modelling damage growth, surpassing a few limitations of the aforementioned techniques. Despite this fact, they still suffer from the restriction of damage growth only at predefined growth paths. The eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) is a recent improvement of the FEM, developed to allow the growth of discontinuities within bulk solids along an arbitrary path, by enriching degrees of freedom with special displacement functions, thus overcoming the main restriction of CZMs. These two techniques were tested to simulate adhesively bonded single- and double-lap joints. The comparative evaluation of the two methods showed their capabilities and/or limitations for this specific purpose.

Content validity and reliability of test of gross motor development in Chilean children

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To validate a Spanish version of the Test of Gross Motor Development (TGMD-2) for the Chilean population. METHODS Descriptive, transversal, non-experimental validity and reliability study. Four translators, three experts and 92 Chilean children, from five to 10 years, students from a primary school in Santiago, Chile, have participated. The Committee of Experts has carried out translation, back-translation and revision processes to determine the translinguistic equivalence and content validity of the test, using the content validity index in 2013. In addition, a pilot implementation was achieved to determine test reliability in Spanish, by using the intraclass correlation coefficient and Bland-Altman method. We evaluated whether the results presented significant differences by replacing the bat with a racket, using T-test. RESULTS We obtained a content validity index higher than 0.80 for language clarity and relevance of the TGMD-2 for children. There were significant differences in the object control subtest when comparing the results with bat and racket. The intraclass correlation coefficient for reliability inter-rater, intra-rater and test-retest reliability was greater than 0.80 in all cases. CONCLUSIONS The TGMD-2 has appropriate content validity to be applied in the Chilean population. The reliability of this test is within the appropriate parameters and its use could be recommended in this population after the establishment of normative data, setting a further precedent for the validation in other Latin American countries.

From design-for-test to design-for-debug-and-test: analysis of requirements and limitations for 1149.1

The increasing complexity of VLSI circuits and the reduced accessibility of modern packaging and mounting technologies restrict the usefulness of conventional in-circuit debugging tools, such as in-circuit emulators for microprocessors and microcontrollers. However, this same trend enables the development of more complex products, which in turn require more powerful debugging tools. These conflicting demands could be met if the standard scan test infrastructures now common in most complex components were able to match the debugging requirements of design verification and prototype validation. This paper analyses the main debug requirements in the design of microprocessor-based applications and the feasibility of their implementation using the mandatory, optional and additional operating modes of the standard IEEE 1149.1 test infrastructure.

Evaluation of the potential of translocated common cockle for ecological risk assessment studies: bioaccumulation and biomarkers test

Thesis submitted to the Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia to obtain the Master’s degree in Environmental Engineering, profile in Ecological Engineering

Pseudo-fractional ARMA modelling using a double Levinson recursion

IET Control Theory & Applications, Vol. 1, Nº 1