Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

Forestry Sector Reform and Distributional Change of Natural Resource Rent in Indonesia

After the collapse of the centralized Soeharto regime, deforestation caused by over-logging accelerated. To tackle this problem, an IMF/World Bank-led forestry sector reform program adopted a market-friendly approach involving the resumption of round wood exports and raising of the resource rent fee, with the aim to stop rent accumulation by plywood companies, which had enjoyed a supply of round wood at privileged prices. The Indonesian government, for its part, decentralized the forest concession management system to provide incentives for local governments and communities to carry out sustainable forest management. However, neither policy reform worked effectively. The round wood export ban was reimposed and the forest management system centralized again with cooperation from a newly funded industry-led institution. In the midst of the confusion surrounding the policy reversal, the gap between the price of round wood in international and domestic markets failed to contract, although rent allocations to plywood industries were reduced during 1998-2003. The rents were not collected properly by the government, but accumulated unexpectedly in the hands of players in the black market for round wood.

Financial Aspects of Transactions with FDI: Trade Credit Provision by SMEs in China

This paper will document financial aspects of transactions, and trade credit supply behavior with FDI among small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) based on two original surveys, conducted in four cities in China in 2003. The survey was designed to capture the nature of inter-firm transactions, trade credit and other financial conditions. Literature on FDI mainly refers to technology transfer, employment or investment. This paper focuses on the role and significance of FDI in the supply of trade credit due to its trade credit enforcement technology. Yanagawa, Ito and Watanabe [2006] developed a model which indicates that when a seller has higher enforcement technology or a buyer has richer liquidity, both trade credit and transaction volume will be increased. In this paper, we confirmed that FDI and G contributed to the provision of trade credit and had a positive external effect on trade credit enforcement towards China’s economy. (1) Sales towards FDI customers have the power to increase the trade credit ratio,even when controlling other factors such as choice of payment instrument, competitiveness, and expost default management. This implies that FDI does provide trade credit, not only because it has superior liquidity, but because it is also superior in terms of enforcement of trade credit repayment.(2) Cash constraints of the buyer influence the decisions concerning trade credit provided by the seller, as a model in Yanagawa, et al. [2006] predicted, and this implies that strategic default is a serious concern among SMEs in China. (3) Spillover effect exists in payment enforcement technology in transactions with FDI customers.

Development of Border Economic Zones in Thailand: Expansion of Border Trade and Formation of Border Economic Zones

In the wake of economic globalization and development in Thailand, movement of people and commodities at the Thai borders is also becoming pronounced. Economic interdependence between Thailand and neighboring countries is growing through border customhouses. As a policy, Thailand is trying to stimulate trade and investment with neighboring countries following the ACMECS (Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy) scheme. In this report, first, movement of people and goods at the borders will be examined. Second, clarification of where and how development is proceeding will be presented. Last, this study will attempt to review the perspectives of policies on neighboring countries after Thaksin.

Development of broiler integration in Peru

Production and consumption of broiler meat has expanded rapidly in Peru since the 1990s. This rapid expansion was possible due to technological changes in production as well as integration of various stages of production, such as breeding farms, hatcheries, feed mills and grow-out farms by so-called broiler integrators. However, there are some distinguishing characteristics in Peruvian broiler integration that differ from those in developed countries. One is the truncated scope of integration, in which the slaughtering and processing stages are not integrated. The other is that not slaughtering and processing companies, but grow-out farms have become the principal broiler integrators. This paper analyzes the factors associated with these characteristics.

How does contract design affect the uptake of microcredit among the ultra-poor? : experimental evidence from the river islands of Northern Bangladesh

Despite the professed claims of microcredit alleviating poverty, little is known about what kind of credit contract is suitable for extremely poor households, also called the ultra-poor. To fill this knowledge gap, we initiated a field experiment in the river islands of northern Bangladesh, where a substantial portion of dwellers could be categorized as ultra-poor due to cyclic floods. We randomly offered four types of loans to such dwellers: regular small cash loans with one-year maturity, large cash loans with three-year maturity both with and without a one-year grace period, and in-kind livestock loans with three-year maturity and a one-year grace period. We compared uptake rates as well as the determinants of uptake and found that the uptake rate is the lowest for the regular contract, followed by the in-kind contract. Contrary to prior belief, we also found that the microcredit demand by the ultra-poor is not necessarily small, and in particular the ultra-poor are significantly more likely to join a microcredit program than the moderately poor if a grace period with longer maturity is attached to a large amount of credit, irrespective of whether the credit is provided in cash or in kind. This paper provides evidence that a typical microcredit contract with one-year maturity and without a grace period is not attractive to the ultra-poor. Microfinance institutions may need to design better credit contracts to address the poor's needs.

Innovative tools to address drought risk in grazing lands

Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

Desintegración vertical en la industria del automóvil en España: un caso de estudio = Vertical disintegration in the automotive industry in Spain: a case study

En los años recientes se ha producido un rápido crecimiento del comercio internacional en productos semielaborados que son diseñados, producidos y ensamblados en diferentes localizaciones a lo largo de diferentes países, debido principalmente a los siguientes motivos: el desarrollo de las tecnologías de la información, la reducción de los costes de transporte, la liberalización de los mercados de capitales, la armonización de factores institucionales, la integración económica regional que implica la reducción y la eliminación de las barreras al comercio, el desarrollo económico de los países emergentes, el uso de economías de escala, así como una desregulación del comercio internacional. Todo ello ha incrementado la competencia a nivel mundial en los mercados y ha posibilitado a las compañías tener más facilidad de acceso a potenciales mercados, así como a la adquisición de capacidades y conocimientos en otros países y a la realización de alianzas estratégicas internacionales con terceros, creando un entorno con mayor incertidumbre y más exigente para las compañías que componen una industria, y que tiene consecuencias directas en las operaciones de las compañías y en la organización de su producción. Las compañías, para adaptarse, ser competitivas y beneficiarse de este nuevo escenario globalizado y más competitivo, han externalizado partes del proceso productivo hacia proveedores especializados, creando un nuevo mercado intermedio que divide el proceso productivo, anteriormente integrado en las compañías que conforman una industria, entre dos conjuntos de empresas especializadas en esa industria. Dicho proceso suele ocurrir conservando la industria en que tiene lugar, los mismos servicios y productos, la tecnología empleada y las compañías originales que la conformaban previamente a la desintegración vertical. Todo ello es así debido a que es beneficioso tanto para las compañías originales de la industria como para las nuevas compañías de este mercado intermedio por diversos motivos. La desintegración vertical en una industria tiene unas consecuencias que la transforman completamente, así como la forma de operar de las compañías que la integran, incluso para aquellas que permanecen verticalmente integradas. Una de las características más importantes de esta desintegración vertical en una industria es la posibilidad que tiene una compañía de adquirir a una tercera la primera parte del proceso productivo o un bien semielaborado, que posteriormente será finalizado por la compañía adquiriente con la práctica del outsourcing; así mismo, una compañía puede realizar la primera parte del proceso productivo o un bien semielaborado, que posteriormente será finalizado por una tercera compañía con la práctica de la fragmentación. El principal objetivo de la presente investigación es el estudio de los motivos, los facilitadores, los efectos, las consecuencias y los principales factores significativos, microeconómicos y macroeconómicos, que desencadenan o incrementan la práctica de la desintegración vertical en una industria; para ello, la investigación se divide en dos líneas completamente diferenciadas: el estudio de la práctica del outsourcing y, por otro lado, el estudio de la fragmentación por parte de las compañías que componen la industria del automóvil en España, puesto que se trata de una de las industrias más desintegradas verticalmente y fragmentadas, y este sector posee una gran importancia en la economía del país. En primer lugar, se hace una revisión de la literatura existente relativa a los siguientes aspectos: desintegración vertical, outsourcing, fragmentación, teoría del comercio internacional, historia de la industria del automóvil en España y el uso de las aglomeraciones geográficas y las tecnologías de la información en el sector del automóvil. La metodología empleada en cada uno de ellos ha sido diferente en función de la disponibilidad de los datos y del enfoque de investigación: los factores microeconómicos, utilizando el outsourcing, y los factores macroeconómicos, empleando la fragmentación. En el estudio del outsourcing, se usa un índice basado en las compras externas sobre el valor total de la producción. Así mismo, se estudia su correlación y significación con las variables económicas más importantes que definen a una compañía del sector del automóvil, utilizando la técnica estadística de regresión lineal. Aquellas variables relacionadas con la competencia en el mercado, la externalización de las actividades de menor valor añadido y el incremento de la modularización de las actividades de la cadena de valor, han resultado significativas con la práctica del outsourcing. En el estudio de la fragmentación se seleccionan un conjunto de factores macroeconómicos, comúnmente usados en este tipo de investigaciones, relacionados con las principales magnitudes económicas de un país, y un conjunto de factores macroeconómicos, no comúnmente usados en este tipo de investigaciones, relacionados con la libertad económica y el comercio internacional de un país. Se emplea un modelo de regresión logística para identificar qué factores son significativos en la práctica de la fragmentación. De entre todos los factores usados en el modelo, los relacionados con las economías de escala y los costes de servicio han resultado significativos. Los resultados obtenidos de los test estadísticos realizados en el modelo de regresión logística han resultado satisfactorios; por ello, el modelo propuesto de regresión logística puede ser considerado sólido, fiable y versátil; además, acorde con la realidad. De los resultados obtenidos en el estudio del outsourcing y de la fragmentación, combinados conjuntamente con el estado del arte, se concluye que el principal factor que desencadena la desintegración vertical en la industria del automóvil es la competencia en el mercado de vehículos. Cuanto mayor es la demanda de vehículos, más se reducen los beneficios y la rentabilidad para sus fabricantes. Estos, para ser competitivos, diferencian sus productos de la competencia centrándose en las actividades que mayor valor añadido aportan al producto final, externalizando las actividades de menor valor añadido a proveedores especializados, e incrementando la modularidad de las actividades de la cadena de valor. Las compañías de la industria del automóvil se especializan en alguna o varias de estas actividades modularizadas que, combinadas con el uso de factores facilitadores como las economías de escala, las tecnologías de la información, las ventajas de la globalización económica y la aglomeración geográfica de una industria, incrementan y motivan la desintegración vertical en la industria del automóvil, desencadenando la coespecialización en dos sectores claramente diferenciados: el sector de fabricantes de vehículos y el sector de proveedores especializados. Cada uno de ellos se especializa en unas actividades y en unos productos o servicios específicos de la cadena de valor, lo cual genera las siguientes consecuencias en la industria del automóvil: se reducen los costes de transacción en los productos o servicios intercambiados; se incrementan la relación de dependencia entre fabricantes de vehículos y proveedores especializados, provocando un aumento en la cooperación y la coordinación, acelerando el proceso de aprendizaje, posibilitando a ambos adquirir nuevas capacidades, conocimientos y recursos, y creando nuevas ventajas competitivas para ambos; por último, las barreras de entrada a la industria del automóvil y el número de compañías se ven alteradas cambiando su estructura. Como futura línea de investigación, los fabricantes de vehículos tenderán a centrarse en investigar, diseñar y comercializar el producto o servicio, delegando el ensamblaje en manos de nuevos especialistas en la materia, el contract manufacturer; por ello, sería conveniente investigar qué factores motivantes o facilitadores existen y qué consecuencias tendría la implantación de los contract manufacturer en la industria del automóvil. 1.1. ABSTRACT In recent years there has been a rapid growth of international trade in semi-finished products designed, produced and assembled in different locations across different countries, mainly due to the following reasons: development of information technologies, reduction of transportation costs, liberalisation of capital markets, harmonisation of institutional factors, regional economic integration, which involves the reduction and elimination of trade barriers, economic development of emerging countries, use of economies of scale and deregulation of international trade. All these factors have increased competition in markets at a global level and have allowed companies to gain easier access to potential markets and to the acquisition of skills and knowledge in other countries, as well as to the completion of international strategic alliances with third parties, thus creating a more demanding and uncertain environment for these companies constituting an industry, which has a direct impact on the companies' operations and the organization of their production. In order to adapt, be competitive and benefit from this new and more competitive global scenario, companies have outsourced some parts of their production process to specialist suppliers, generating a new intermediate market which divides the production process, previously integrated in the companies that made up the industry, into two sets of companies specialized in that industry. This process often occurs while preserving the industry where it takes place, its same services and products, the technology used and the original companies that formed it prior to vertical disintegration. This is because it is beneficial for both the industry's original companies and the companies belonging to this new intermediate market, for various reasons. Vertical disintegration has consequences which completely transform the industry where it takes place as well as the modus operandi of the companies that are part of it, even of those who remain vertically integrated. One of the most important features of vertical disintegration of an industry is the possibility for a company to acquire from a third one the first part of the production process or a semi-finished product, which will then be finished by the acquiring company through the practice of outsourcing; also, a company can perform the first part of the production process or a semi-finish product, which will then be completed by a third company through the practice of fragmentation. The main objective of this research is to study the motives, facilitators, effects, consequences and major significant microeconomic and macroeconomic factors that trigger or increase the practice of vertical disintegration in a certain industry; in order to do so, research is divided into two completely differentiated lines: on the one hand, the study of the practise of outsourcing and, on the other, the study of fragmentation by companies constituting the automotive industry in Spain, since this is one of the most vertically disintegrated and fragmented industries and this particular sector is of major significance in this country's economy. First, a review is made of the existing literature, on the following aspects: vertical disintegration, outsourcing, fragmentation, international trade theory, history of the automobile industry in Spain and the use of geographical agglomeration and information technologies in the automotive sector. The methodology used for each of these aspects has been different depending on the availability of data and the research approach: the microeconomic factors, using outsourcing, and the macroeconomic factors, using fragmentation. In the study on outsourcing, an index is used based on external purchases in relation to the total value of production. Likewise, their significance and correlation with the major economic variables that define an automotive company are studied, using the statistical technique of linear regression. Variables related to market competition, outsourcing of lowest value-added activities and increased modularisation of the activities of the value chain have turned out to be significant with the practice of outsourcing. In the study of fragmentation, a set of macroeconomic factors commonly used for this type of research, is selected, related to the main economic indicators of a country, as well as a set of macroeconomic factors, not commonly used for this type of research, which are related to economic freedom and the international trade of a certain country. A logistic regression model is used to identify which factors are significant in the practice of fragmentation. Amongst all factors used in the model, those related to economies of scale and service costs have turned out to be significant. The results obtained from the statistical tests performed on the logistic regression model have been successful; hence, the suggested logistic regression model can be considered to be solid, reliable and versatile; likewise, it is in line with reality. From the results obtained in the study of outsourcing and fragmentation, combined with the state of the art, it is concluded that the main factor that triggers vertical disintegration in the automotive industry is competition within the vehicle market. The greater the vehicle demand, the lower the earnings and profitability for manufacturers. These, in order to be competitive, differentiate their products from the competition by focusing on those activities that contribute with the highest added value to the final product, outsourcing the lower valueadded activities to specialist suppliers, and increasing the modularity of the activities of the value chain. Companies in the automotive industry specialize in one or more of these modularised activities which, combined with the use of enabling factors such as economies of scale, information technologies, the advantages of economic globalisation and the geographical agglomeration of an industry, increase and encourage vertical disintegration in the automotive industry, triggering co-specialization in two clearly distinct sectors: the sector of vehicle manufacturers and the specialist suppliers sector. Each of them specializes in certain activities and specific products or services of the value chain, generating the following consequences in the automotive industry: reduction of transaction costs of the goods or services exchanged; growth of the relationship of dependency between vehicle manufacturers and specialist suppliers, which causes an increase in cooperation and coordination, accelerates the learning process, enables both to acquire new skills, knowledge and resources, and creates new competitive advantages for both; finally, barriers to entry the automotive industry and the number of companies are altered, changing their structure. As a future line of research, vehicle manufacturers will tend to focus on researching, designing and marketing the product or service, delegating the assembly in the hands of new specialists in the field, the contract manufacturer; for this reason, it would be useful to investigate what motivating or facilitating factors exist in this respect and what consequences would the implementation of contract manufacturers have in the automotive industry.

Infrastructure Finance in Developing Countries by State and Multilateral Development Banks

Infrastructure concession is an alternative widely used by governments to increase investment. In the case of the road sector, the main characteristics of the concessions are: long-term projects, high investments in the early years of the contract and high risks. A viability analysis must be carried out for each concession and consider the characteristics of the project. When the infrastructure is located in a developing country, political and market growth uncertainties should be add in the concession project analysis, as well as economic instability, because they present greater risks. This paper is an analysis of state bank participation in road infrastructure finance in developing countries. For this purpose, we studied road infrastructure financing and its associated risks, and also the features of developing countries. Furthermore, we considered the issue of state banks and multilateral development banks that perform an important role by offering better credit lines than the private banks, in terms of cost, interest and grace period. Based on this study, we analyzed the Brazilian Development Bank - BNDES – and their credit supply to road infrastructure concessions. The results show that BNDES is the main financing agent for long-term investment in the sector, offering loans with low interest rates in Brazilian currency. From this research we argue that a single state bank should not alone support the increasing demand for finance in Brazil. Therefore, we conclude that there is a need to expand the supply of credit in Brazil, by strengthening private banks in the long-term lending market.

The first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market

A description of the first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market is provided. A contract for difference mechanism is available in Spain since March 2011between the last resort suppliers and the special regime (renewables and cogeneration) settling the price differences between the equilibrium price of the forward regulated auctions for the last resort supply and the spot price of the corresponding delivery period. Regulated auctions of baseload futures of the Portuguese zone in which the Portuguese last resort supplier sells the special regime production exist since December 2011. The experience gained from renewables auctions in Latin America could be used in the Iberian Electricity market, complementing these first market mechanisms. Introduction of renewable auctions at least for the most mature technologies (i.e. wind) in Spain and Portugal providing a fair price for the renewable generation will be of utmost importance in the short term to diminish the tariff deficit caused by the massive deployment of the feed-in-tariff scheme. Liquidity in the forward markets will also increase as a result of the entry of renewable generation companies intending to maximize their profits due to gradual suppression of feed in tariff schemes.

Applied continuous modelling in the study of pyrotechnic shock propagation on Ariane 5

This paper deals with the theoretical method and the modelling problems on the analysis of the Pyrotechnic Shock Propagation in the Vehicle Equipment Bay Structure of the ARIANE 5 during the separation of the upper stage. This work has been developed under a contract with the Spanish Firm Construcciones Aeronáuticas S.A. From all the analysis and the studies it can be concluded that: 1.- The mathematical method used for the study of the pyrotechnic shock phenomena is very well suited for conducting parametric studies. 2.- A careful model of the structure should be developed taking into account the realistic stiffness and dissipation properties at the junctions. 3.- The load produced by the pyrotechnic device should be carefully calibrated to reach a good agreement between theoretical and test results. 4.- In any case with the adquired experience it can be said that with the modelling of continuous elements the order of magnitude of the accelerations can be predicted with the accuracy needed in practical applications.

Theory of a Probe in a Strong Magnetic Field. AT(30-1)-1238-MATT 599

A kinetic approach is used to develop a theory of electrostatic probes in a fully ionized plasma in the presence of a magnetic field. A consistent asymptotic expansion is obtained assuming that the electron Larmor radius is small compared to the radius of the probe. The order of magnitude of neglected terms is given. It is found that the electric potential within the tube of force defined by the cross section of the probe decays non-mono tonic ally from the probe; this bump disappears at a certain probe voltage and the theory is valid up to this voltage. The transition region, which extends beyond plasma potential, is not exponential. The possible saturation of the electron current is discussed. Restricted numerical results are given; they seem to be useful for weaker magnetic fields down to the zero-field limit. Extensions of the theory a r e considered.