Sequential updating via dynamic hierarchical models: A Bayesian approach to longitudinal data analysis

Most statistical analysis, theory and practice, is concerned with static models; models with a proposed set of parameters whose values are fixed across observational units. Static models implicitly assume that the quantified relationships remain the same across the design space of the data. While this is reasonable under many circumstances this can be a dangerous assumption when dealing with sequentially ordered data. The mere passage of time always brings fresh considerations and the interrelationships among parameters, or subsets of parameters, may need to be continually revised. ^ When data are gathered sequentially dynamic interim monitoring may be useful as new subject-specific parameters are introduced with each new observational unit. Sequential imputation via dynamic hierarchical models is an efficient strategy for handling missing data and analyzing longitudinal studies. Dynamic conditional independence models offers a flexible framework that exploits the Bayesian updating scheme for capturing the evolution of both the population and individual effects over time. While static models often describe aggregate information well they often do not reflect conflicts in the information at the individual level. Dynamic models prove advantageous over static models in capturing both individual and aggregate trends. Computations for such models can be carried out via the Gibbs sampler. An application using a small sample repeated measures normally distributed growth curve data is presented. ^

High-resolution dynamic computer simulation analysis of the behavior of sample components with pI values outside the pH gradient established by carrier ampholyte CIEF

The behavior of sample components whose pI values are outside the pH gradient established by 101 hypothetical biprotic carrier ampholytes covering a pH 6-8 range was investigated by computer simulation under constant current conditions with concomitant constant electroosmosis toward the cathode. Data obtained with the sample being applied between zones of carrier ampholytes and on the anodic side of the carrier ampholytes were studied and found to evolve into zone structures comprising three regions between anolyte and catholyte. The focusing region with the pH gradient is bracketed by two isotachopheretic zone structures comprising selected sample and carrier components as isotachophoretic zones. The isotachophoretic structures electrophoretically migrate in opposite direction and their lengths increase with time due to the gradual isotachophoretic decay at the pH gradient edges. Due to electroosmosis, however, the overall pattern is being transported toward the cathode. Sample components whose pI values are outside the established pH gradient are demonstrated to form isotachophoretic zones behind the leading cation of the catholyte (components with pI values larger than 8) and the leading anion of the anolyte (components with pI values smaller than 6). Amphoteric compounds with appropriate pI values or nonamphoteric components can act as isotachophoretic spacer compounds between sample compounds or between the leader and the sample with the highest mobility. The simulation data obtained provide for the first time insight into the dynamics of amphoteric sample components that do not focus within the established pH gradient.

Quantitative analysis of imprint shape and its relation to mechanical properties measured by microindentation in bone

Microindentation in bone is a micromechanical testing technique routinely used to extract material properties related to bone quality. As the analysis of microindentation data is based on assumptions about the contact between sample and surface, the aim of this study was to quantify the topological variability of indentations in bone and examine its relationship with mechanical properties. Indentations were performed in dry human and ovine bone in axial and transverse directions and their topology was measured by atomic force microscopy. Statistical shape modeling of the residual imprint allowed to define a mean shape and to describe the variability in terms of 21 principal components related to imprint depth, surface curvature and roughness. The indentation profile of bone was found to be highly consistent and free of any pile up while differing mostly by depth between species and direction. A few of the topological parameters, in particular depth, showed significant but rather weak and inconsistent correlations to variations in mechanical properties. The mechanical response of bone as well as the residual imprint shape was highly consistent within each category. We could thus verify that bone is rather homogeneous in its micromechanical properties and that indentation results are not strongly influenced by small deviations from an ideally flat surface.

Duration-dependent influence of dynamic torsion on the intervertebral disc: an intact disc organ culture study.

PURPOSE Mechanical loading is an important parameter that alters the homeostasis of the intervertebral disc (IVD). Studies have demonstrated the role of compression in altering the cellular metabolism, anabolic and catabolic events of the disc, but little is known how complex loading such as torsion-compression affects the IVD cell metabolism and matrix homeostasis. Studying how the duration of torsion affects disc matrix turnover could provide guidelines to prevent overuse injury to the disc and suggest possible beneficial effect of torsion. The aim of the study was to evaluate the biological response of the IVD to different durations of torsional loading. METHODS Intact bovine caudal IVD were isolated for organ culture in a bioreactor. Different daily durations of torsion were applied over 7 days at a physiological magnitude (±2°) in combination with 0.2 MPa compression, at a frequency of 1 Hz. RESULTS Nucleus pulpous (NP) cell viability and total disc volume decreased with 8 h of torsion-compression per day. Gene expression analysis suggested a down-regulated MMP13 with increased time of torsion. 1 and 4 h per day torsion-compression tended to increase the glycosaminoglycans/hydroxyproline ratio in the NP tissue group. CONCLUSIONS Our result suggests that load duration thresholds exist in both torsion and compression with an optimal load duration capable of promoting matrix synthesis and overloading can be harmful to disc cells. Future research is required to evaluate the specific mechanisms for these observed effects.

Nonlinear quasi-static finite element simulations predict in vitro strength of human proximal femora assessed in a dynamic sideways fall setup

Osteoporotic proximal femur fractures are caused by low energy trauma, typically when falling on the hip from standing height. Finite element simulations, widely used to predict the fracture load of femora in fall, usually include neither mass-related inertial effects, nor the viscous part of bone's material behavior. The aim of this study was to elucidate if quasi-static non-linear homogenized finite element analyses can predict in vitro mechanical properties of proximal femora assessed in dynamic drop tower experiments. The case-specific numerical models of thirteen femora predicted the strength (R2=0.84, SEE=540 N, 16.2%), stiffness (R2=0.82, SEE=233 N/mm, 18.0%) and fracture energy (R2=0.72, SEE=3.85 J, 39.6%); and provided fair qualitative matches with the fracture patterns. The influence of material anisotropy was negligible for all predictions. These results suggest that quasi-static homogenized finite element analysis may be used to predict mechanical properties of proximal femora in the dynamic sideways fall situation.

Mechanical Thrombectomy for Isolated M2 Occlusions: A Post Hoc Analysis of the STAR, SWIFT, and SWIFT PRIME Studies.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Mechanical thrombectomy is beneficial for patients with acute ischemic stroke and a proximal anterior occlusion, but it is unclear if these results can be extrapolated to patients with an M2 occlusion. The purpose of this study was to examine the technical aspects, safety, and outcomes of mechanical thrombectomy with a stent retriever in patients with an isolated M2 occlusion who were included in 3 large multicenter prospective studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS We included patients from the Solitaire Flow Restoration Thrombectomy for Acute Revascularization (STAR), Solitaire With the Intention For Thrombectomy (SWIFT), and Solitaire With the Intention for Thrombectomy as Primary Endovascular Treatment (SWIFT PRIME) studies, 3 large multicenter prospective studies on thrombectomy for ischemic stroke. We compared outcomes and technical details of patients with an M2 with those with an M1 occlusion. All patients were treated with a stent retriever. Imaging data and outcomes were scored by an independent core laboratory. Successful reperfusion was defined as modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction score of 2b/3. RESULTS We included 50 patients with an M2 and 249 patients with an M1 occlusion. Patients with an M2 occlusion were older (mean age, 71 versus 67 years; P = .04) and had a lower NIHSS score (median, 13 versus 17; P < .001) compared with those with an M1 occlusion. Procedural time was nonsignificantly shorter in patients with an M2 occlusion (median, 29 versus 35 minutes; P = .41). The average number of passes with a stent retriever was also nonsignificantly lower in patients with an M2 occlusion (mean, 1.4 versus 1.7; P = .07). There were no significant differences in successful reperfusion (85% versus 82%, P = .82), symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhages (2% versus 2%, P = 1.0), device-related serious adverse events (6% versus 4%, P = .46), or modified Rankin Scale score 0-2 at follow-up (60% versus 56%, P = .64). CONCLUSIONS Endovascular reperfusion therapy appears to be feasible in selected patients with ischemic stroke and an M2 occlusion.

Direct Mechanical Intervention Versus Combined Intravenous and Mechanical Intervention in Large Artery Anterior Circulation Stroke: A Matched-Pairs Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Five randomized controlled trials have consistently shown that mechanical thrombectomy (MT) in addition to best medical treatment (±intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator) improves outcome after acute ischemic stroke in patients with large artery anterior circulation stroke. Whether direct MT is equally effective as combined intravenous thrombolysis with MT (ie, bridging thrombolysis) remains unclear. METHODS We retrospectively compared clinical and radiological outcomes in 167 bridging patients with 255 patients receiving direct MT because of large artery anterior circulation stroke. We matched all patients from the direct MT group who would have qualified for intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator with controls from the bridging group, using multivariate and propensity score analyses. Functional independence was defined as modified Rankin Scale score of 0 to 2. RESULTS From February 2009 to August 2014, 40 patients from the direct MT group would have qualified for bridging thrombolysis but were treated with MT only. Clinical and radiological characteristics did not differ from the bridging cohort, except for higher rates of hypercholesterolemia (P=0.019), coronary heart disease (P=0.039), and shorter intervals from symptom onset to endovascular intervention (P=0.01) in the direct MT group. Functional independence, mortality, and intracerebral hemorrhage rates did not differ (P>0.1). After multivariate matching analysis outcome in both groups did not differ, except for lower rates of asymptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (P=0.023) and lower mortality (P=0.007) in the direct MT group. CONCLUSIONS In patients with large anterior circulation stroke, direct mechanical intervention seems to be equally effective as bridging thrombolysis. A randomized trial comparing direct MT with bridging therapy is warranted.

Improved Techniques for Acquisition and Analysis of Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Detecting Vascular Permeability in the Central Nervous System

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is a noninvasive technique for quantitative assessment of the integrity of blood-brain barrier and blood-spinal cord barrier (BSCB) in the presence of central nervous system pathologies. However, the results of DCE-MRI show substantial variability. The high variability can be caused by a number of factors including inaccurate T1 estimation, insufficient temporal resolution and poor contrast-to-noise ratio. My thesis work is to develop improved methods to reduce the variability of DCE-MRI results. To obtain fast and accurate T1 map, the Look-Locker acquisition technique was implemented with a novel and truly centric k-space segmentation scheme. In addition, an original multi-step curve fitting procedure was developed to increase the accuracy of T1 estimation. A view sharing acquisition method was implemented to increase temporal resolution, and a novel normalization method was introduced to reduce image artifacts. Finally, a new clustering algorithm was developed to reduce apparent noise in the DCE-MRI data. The performance of these proposed methods was verified by simulations and phantom studies. As part of this work, the proposed techniques were applied to an in vivo DCE-MRI study of experimental spinal cord injury (SCI). These methods have shown robust results and allow quantitative assessment of regions with very low vascular permeability. In conclusion, applications of the improved DCE-MRI acquisition and analysis methods developed in this thesis work can improve the accuracy of the DCE-MRI results.

Mechanical properties and comparisons of dynamic and static Young's moduli at DSDP Holes 69-504B, 70-504B and 83-504B

From laboratory tests under simulated downhole conditions we tentatively conclude that the higher the triaxial-compressive strength, the lower the drilling rate of basalts from DSDP Hole 504B. Because strength is roughly proportional to Young's modulus of elasticity, which is related in turn to seismic-wave velocities, one may be able to estimate drilling rates from routine shipboard measurements. However, further research is needed to verify that P-wave velocity is a generally useful predictor of relative drilling rate.

Can FDI promote export diversification and sophistication of host countries? : dynamic panel system GMM analysis

Recent trade literature highlights the importance of export diversification and upgrading in fostering faster and sustainable economic growth. This study investigates the impact of FDI inflow and stock on the level of export diversification and sophistication in host country's export baskets. By utilizing the dynamic panel data model, we find that the five-year lagged FDI inflow correlates positively with both export diversification and sophistication, and FDI stock makes the positive contribution to export sophistication. These findings provide support for the possibility of successful capabilities transfer to and building by local firms. We also find that these positive impacts of FDI exist only in developing countries.

The emission reduction effect and economic impact of an energy tax vs. a carbon tax in China : a dynamic CGE model analysis

Chinese government commits to reach its peak carbon emissions before 2030, which requires China to implement new policies. Using a CGE model, this study conducts simulation studies on the functions of an energy tax and a carbon tax and analyzes their effects on macro-economic indices. The Chinese economy is affected at an acceptable level by the two taxes. GDP will lose less than 0.8% with a carbon tax of 100, 50, or 10 RMB/ton CO2 or 5% of the delivery price of an energy tax. Thus, the loss of real disposable personal income is smaller. Compared with implementing a single tax, a combined carbon and energy tax induces more emission reductions with relatively smaller economic costs. With these taxes, the domestic competitiveness of energy intensive industries is improved. Additionally, we found that the sooner such taxes are launched, the smaller the economic costs and the more significant the achieved emission reductions.

Contribution to the Analysis, Design and Assessment of Compact Antenna Test Ranges At Millimeter Wavelengths - Contribución al Análisis, Diseño y Caracterización de Sistemas de Medida de Antenas en Rango Compacto para Frecuencias Milimétricas

This Doctoral Thesis entitled Contribution to the analysis, design and assessment of compact antenna test ranges at millimeter wavelengths aims to deepen the knowledge of a particular antenna measurement system: the compact range, operating in the frequency bands of millimeter wavelengths. The thesis has been developed at Radiation Group (GR), an antenna laboratory which belongs to the Signals, Systems and Radiocommunications department (SSR), from Technical University of Madrid (UPM). The Radiation Group owns an extensive experience on antenna measurements, running at present four facilities which operate in different configurations: Gregorian compact antenna test range, spherical near field, planar near field and semianechoic arch system. The research work performed in line with this thesis contributes the knowledge of the first measurement configuration at higher frequencies, beyond the microwaves region where Radiation Group features customer-level performance. To reach this high level purpose, a set of scientific tasks were sequentially carried out. Those are succinctly described in the subsequent paragraphs. A first step dealed with the State of Art review. The study of scientific literature dealed with the analysis of measurement practices in compact antenna test ranges in addition with the particularities of millimeter wavelength technologies. Joint study of both fields of knowledge converged, when this measurement facilities are of interest, in a series of technological challenges which become serious bottlenecks at different stages: analysis, design and assessment. Thirdly after the overview study, focus was set on Electromagnetic analysis algorithms. These formulations allow to approach certain electromagnetic features of interest, such as field distribution phase or stray signal analysis of particular structures when they interact with electromagnetic waves sources. Properly operated, a CATR facility features electromagnetic waves collimation optics which are large, in terms of wavelengths. Accordingly, the electromagnetic analysis tasks introduce an extense number of mathematic unknowns which grow with frequency, following different polynomic order laws depending on the used algorithmia. In particular, the optics configuration which was of our interest consisted on the reflection type serrated edge collimator. The analysis of these devices requires a flexible handling of almost arbitrary scattering geometries, becoming this flexibility the nucleus of the algorithmia’s ability to perform the subsequent design tasks. This thesis’ contribution to this field of knowledge consisted on reaching a formulation which was powerful at the same time when dealing with various analysis geometries and computationally speaking. Two algorithmia were developed. While based on the same principle of hybridization, they reached different order Physics performance at the cost of the computational efficiency. Inter-comparison of their CATR design capabilities was performed, reaching both qualitative as well as quantitative conclusions on their scope. In third place, interest was shifted from analysis - design tasks towards range assessment. Millimetre wavelengths imply strict mechanical tolerances and fine setup adjustment. In addition, the large number of unknowns issue already faced in the analysis stage appears as well in the on chamber field probing stage. Natural decrease of dynamic range available by semiconductor millimeter waves sources requires in addition larger integration times at each probing point. These peculiarities increase exponentially the difficulty of performing assessment processes in CATR facilities beyond microwaves. The bottleneck becomes so tight that it compromises the range characterization beyond a certain limit frequency which typically lies on the lowest segment of millimeter wavelength frequencies. However the value of range assessment moves, on the contrary, towards the highest segment. This thesis contributes this technological scenario developing quiet zone probing techniques which achieves substantial data reduction ratii. Collaterally, it increases the robustness of the results to noise, which is a virtual rise of the setup’s available dynamic range. In fourth place, the environmental sensitivity of millimeter wavelengths issue was approached. It is well known the drifts of electromagnetic experiments due to the dependance of the re sults with respect to the surrounding environment. This feature relegates many industrial practices of microwave frequencies to the experimental stage, at millimeter wavelengths. In particular, evolution of the atmosphere within acceptable conditioning bounds redounds in drift phenomena which completely mask the experimental results. The contribution of this thesis on this aspect consists on modeling electrically the indoor atmosphere existing in a CATR, as a function of environmental variables which affect the range’s performance. A simple model was developed, being able to handle high level phenomena, such as feed - probe phase drift as a function of low level magnitudes easy to be sampled: relative humidity and temperature. With this model, environmental compensation can be performed and chamber conditioning is automatically extended towards higher frequencies. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to go further into the knowledge of millimetre wavelengths involving compact antenna test ranges. This knowledge is dosified through the sequential stages of a CATR conception, form early low level electromagnetic analysis towards the assessment of an operative facility, stages for each one of which nowadays bottleneck phenomena exist and seriously compromise the antenna measurement practices at millimeter wavelengths.

Análisis de parámetros de fendas para la estimación de las propiedades mecánicas de vigas de madera de Pinus sylvestris L. Analysis of parameters for assessing drying fissures to estimate their influence on the mechanical properties of Pinus sylvestris L. wooden beams

El principal objetivo de este estudio es evaluar la influencia de las fendas de secado en las propiedades mecánicas de vigas de madera. Para esto, se utilizan 40 vigas de Pino silvestre (Pinus sylvestris L) de 4200 mm de longitud y 150x200 mm de sección que fueron ensayadas según norma EN 408. Las fendas se registran detalladamente atendiendo a su longitud y posición en cada cara de la viga, y midiendo el espesor y la profundidad cada 100mm a lo largo de la viga. Solo el 10% de la muestra es rechazada por las fendas, según los criterios establecidos por la norma española de clasificación visual UNE 56544. Para evaluar la influencia de las fendas en las propiedades mecánicas, se usan tres parámetros globales basados en el área, el volumen o la profundad de la fenda, y dos locales basados en la profundidad máxima y la profundidad en la zona de rotura. Además se determina la densidad de las piezas. Estos parámetros se comparan con las propiedades mecánicas (tensión de rotura, módulo de elasticidad y energía de rotura) y se encuentra escasa relación entre ellos. Las mejores correlaciones se encuentran entre los parámetros relacionados con la profundidad de las fendas, tanto con el módulo de elasticidad como con la tensión de rotura. The aim of this study is the evaluation of the influence of drying fissures on the mechanical properties of timber beams. For that purpose, 40 sawn timber pieces of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) with 150x200 mm in cross-section and 4200 mm in length have been tested according to EN 408, obtaining MOR and MOE. The fissures were registered in detail measuring their length and position in each face of the beam, and the thickness and depth every 100 mm in length. Only 10 % of the pieces were rejected because fissures, according to UNE 56544 Spanish visual grading standard. To evaluate the influence of fissures in mechanical properties three global parameters: Fissures Area Ratio or ratio between the area occupied by fissures and the total area in the neutral axis plane of the beam; Fissures Volume Ratio or ratio between volume of fissures and the total volume of the beam; Fissures Average Depth and two local parameters were used: Fissures Maximum Depth in the beam, and Fissures Depth in the broken zone of the beam. Also the density of the beams was registered. These parameters were compared with mechanical properties (tensile strength, elasticity modulus, and rupture energy) and the relationship between them had not been founded. The best relationship was founded between the elasticity modulus y the tensile strength with the parameters which included the depth of the fissures.

Spectral-analysis-surface-waves-method in ground characterization

The prediction of train induced vibration levels in structures close to railway tracks before track construction starts is important in order to avoid having to implement costly mitigation measures afterwards. The used models require an accurate characterization of the propagation medium i.e. the soil layers. To this end the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) method has been chosen among the active surface waves techniques available. As dynamic source a modal sledge hammer has been used. The generated vibrations have been measured at known offsets by means of several accelerometers. There are many parameters involved in estimating the experimental dispersion curve and, later on, thickness and propagation velocities of the different layers. Tests have been carried out at the Segovia railway station. Its main building covers some of the railway tracks and vibration problems in the building should be avoided. In the paper these tests as well as the influence of several parameters on the estimated soil profile will be detailed.

Dynamic Analysis of high Speed Railway Traffic Loads on Ballasted Track

This paper reports the studies carried out to develop and calibrate the optimal models for the objectives of this work. In particular, quarter bogie model for vehicle, rail-wheel contact with Lagrangian multiplier method, 2D spatial discretization were selected as the optimal decisions. Furthermore, the 3D model of coupled vehicle-track also has been developed to contrast the results obtained in the 2D model. The calculations were carried out in the time domain and envelopes of relevant results were obtained for several track profiles and speed ranges. Distributed elevation irregularities were generated based on power spectral density (PSD) distributions. The results obtained include the wheel-rail contact forces, forces transmitted to the bogie by primary suspension. The latter loads are relevant for the purpose of evaluating the performance of the infrastructure