Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

A double-blind, randomized study comparing pure chromated glycerin with chromated glycerin with 1% lidocaine and epinephrine for sclerotherapy of telangiectasias and reticular veins.

BACKGROUND Chromated glycerin (CG) is an effective, although painful, sclerosing agent for telangiectasias and reticular leg veins treatment. OBJECTIVE To determine pain level and relative efficacy of pure or one-third lidocaine-epinephrine 1% mixed chromated glycerin in a prospective randomized double-blind trial. METHOD Patients presenting with telangiectasias and reticular leg veins on the lateral aspect of the thigh (C(1A) or (S) E(P) A(S) P(N1) ) were randomized to receive pure CG or CG mixed with one-third lidocaine-epinephrine 1% (CGX) treatment. Lower limb photographs were taken before and after treatment and analyzed by blinded expert reviewers for efficacy assessment (visual vein disappearance). Patients' pain and satisfaction were assessed using visual analogue scales. RESULTS Data from 102 of 110 randomized patients could be evaluated. Patient pain scores were significantly higher when pure CG was used than with CGX (p<.001). Patient satisfaction with treatment outcome was similar in the two groups. Objective visual assessment of vessel disappearance revealed no significant difference between the two agents (p=.07). CONCLUSION Addition of lidocaine-epinephrine 1% to CG, in a ratio of one-third, significantly reduces sclerotherapy pain without affecting efficacy when treating telangiectasias and reticular leg veins. The authors have indicated no significant interest with commercial supporters.

The Difference, System and ‘Double-D’ GMM Panel Estimators in the Presence of Structural Breaks

The effects of structural breaks in dynamic panels are more complicated than in time series models as the bias can be either negative or positive. This paper focuses on the effects of mean shifts in otherwise stationary processes within an instrumental variable panel estimation framework. We show the sources of the bias and a Monte Carlo analysis calibrated on United States bank lending data demonstrates the size of the bias for a range of auto-regressive parameters. We also propose additional moment conditions that can be used to reduce the biases caused by shifts in the mean of the data.

The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are wellexplained by macro- and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisis’ transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited.

Efficacy of vitamin D3 as add-on therapy in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis receiving subcutaneous interferon β-1a: a Phase II, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

Recent studies have demonstrated the immunomodulatory properties of vitamin D, and vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for the development of MS. The risk of developing MS has, in fact, been associated with rising latitudes, past exposure to sun and serum vitamin D status. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels have also been associated with relapses and disability progression. The identification of risk factors, such as vitamin D deficiency, in MS may provide an opportunity to improve current treatment strategies, through combination therapy with established MS treatments. Accordingly, vitamin D may play a role in MS therapy. Small clinical studies of vitamin D supplementation in patients with MS have reported positive immunomodulatory effects, reduced relapse rates and a reduction in the number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions. However, large randomized clinical trials of vitamin D supplementation in patients with MS are lacking. SOLAR (Supplementation of VigantOL(®) oil versus placebo as Add-on in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis receiving Rebif(®) treatment) is a 96-week, three-arm, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, Phase II trial (NCT01285401). SOLAR will evaluate the efficacy of vitamin D(3) as add-on therapy to subcutaneous interferon beta-1a in patients with RRMS. Recruitment began in February 2011 and is aimed to take place over 1 calendar year due to the potential influence of seasonal differences in 25(OH)D levels.

The response of the external finance premium in Asian corporate bond markets to financial characteristics, financial constraints and two financial crises

Empirical investigation of the external finance premium has been conducted on the margin between internal finance and bank borrowing or equities but little attention has been given to corporate bonds, especially for the emerging Asian market. In this paper, we hypothesize that balance sheet indicators of creditworthiness could affect the external finance premium for bonds as they do for premia in other markets. Using bond-specific and firm-specific data for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand during 1995-2009 we find that firms with better financial health face lower external finance premia in all countries. When we introduce firm-level heterogeneity, we show that financial variables appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for financially constrained firms. Finally, when we examine the effects of the 1997-98 Asian crisis and the 2007-09 global financial crisis, we find that the sensitivity of the premium is greater for constrained firms during the Asian crisis compared to other times.

Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

Interet de la double voie d'abord dans les blepharoplasties superieures associees aux malpositions palpebrales. [Advantages of a double approach to upper blepharoplasty associated with eyelid malpositions]

During upper blepharoplasty, myocutaneous excess and fat pads are treated using an anterior approach. Eyelid malpositions such as involutional ptosis or lid retraction could be associated and should be treated with associated procedures. Aponeurotic surgery on the levator muscle can make use of the same anterior approach, with the major difficulty of dosage. In cases of ptosis with a positive epinephrine test or minor muscular retraction, the Muller muscle-conjunctival surgery via a posterior approach seems to be more reproducible. Double-approach techniques are described.

Homotopy Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras

This paper provides an explicit cofibrant resolution of the operad encoding Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras. Thus it defines the notion of homotopy Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras with the required homotopy properties. To define this resolution we extend the theory of Koszul duality to operads and properads that are defined by quadratic and linear relations. The operad encoding Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras is shown to be Koszul in this sense. This allows us to prove a Poincaré-Birkhoff-Witt Theorem for such an operad and to give an explicit small quasi-free resolution for it. This particular resolution enables us to describe the deformation theory and homotopy theory of BV-algebras and of homotopy BV-algebras. We show that any topological conformal field theory carries a homotopy BV-algebra structure which lifts the BV-algebra structure on homology. The same result is proved for the singular chain complex of the double loop space of a topological space endowed with an action of the circle. We also prove the cyclic Deligne conjecture with this cofibrant resolution of the operad BV. We develop the general obstruction theory for algebras over the Koszul resolution of a properad and apply it to extend a conjecture of Lian-Zuckerman, showing that certain vertex algebras have an explicit homotopy BV-algebra structure.

Role of penicillin-binding proteins in Streptococcus gordonii

Résumé Streptococcus gordonii est une bactérie colonisatrice naturelle de la cavité buccale de l'homme. Bien que normalement commensale, elle peut causer des infections graves, telles que des bactériémies ou des endocardites infectieuses. La pénicilline étant un des traitements privilégiés dans de tels cas, l'augmentation rapide et globale des résistances à cet antibiotique devient inquiétante. L'étude de la physiologie et des bases génétiques de ces résistances chez S. gordonii s'avère donc importante. Les cibles moléculaires privilégiées de la pénicilline G et des β-lactames sont les penicilllin-binding proteins (PBPs). Ces enzymes associées à la membrane ont pour rôle de catalyser les réactions de transpeptidation et de transglycosylation, qui constituent les dernières étapes de la biosynthèse du peptidoglycan (PG). Elles sont définies comme classe A ou B selon leur capacité d'assurer soit les deux réactions, soit uniquement la transpeptidation. Les β-lactames inhibent le domaine transpeptidase de toutes les PBPs, entraînant l'inhibition de la synthèse du PG, l'inhibition de la croissance, et finalement la mort cellulaire. Chez les streptocoques, les PBPs sont aussi les premiers déterminants de la résistance à la pénicilline. De plus, elles sont impliquées dans la morphologie bactérienne, en raison de leur rôle crucial dans la formation du PG. Le but de ce travail était de caractériser les PBPs de S. gordonii et d'étudier leurs fonctions dans la vie végétative de la bactérie ainsi que durant le développement de la résistance à la pénicilline. Premièrement, des mutants auxquels il manque une ou deux PBP(s) ont été construits. Leur étude - au niveau physiologique, biochimique et morphologique - a montré le caractère essentiel ou dispensable de chaque protéine, ainsi que certaines de leurs fonctions potentielles. Deuxièmement, des mutants résistants à la pénicilline ont été générés. Leur caractérisation a montré l'importance des mutations dans les PBPs ainsi que dans d'autres gènes encore inconnus, de même que le rôle crucial des PBPs de classe A dans le développement de la résistance à la pénicilline. Des expériences supplémentaires sur des isolats résistants ont aussi prouvé que la résistance a un coût en terme de fitness, coût que S. gordonii parvient à compenser par des mécanismes d'adaptation. Finalement, les promoteurs des gènes des PBPs ont été déterminés et leur expression a été étudiée grâce au gène de luciférase. Il a ainsi été montré que la résistance à la pénicilline entraîne non seulement des altérations au niveau des protéines, mais aussi au niveau de la régulation des gènes. De plus, la pénicilline génère directement des modifications dans l'expression de PBPs spécifiques. Summary Streptococcus gordonii is a normal inhabitant of the human oral cavity and a pioneer colonizer of teeth. Although usually considered as a commensal, this organism can cause life-threatening infections such as bacteraemia or endocarditis. Since penicillin is one of the preferential treatments for such pathologies, the rapid and general increase of antibiotic resistance in the overall population becomes an issue. Thus, studying the physiologic and genetic bases of such a resistance in S. gordonii is of interest. The primary molecular targets of penicillin G and other β-lactams are the so called penicillin-binding proteins (PBPs). These are membrane-associated proteins that catalyze the last steps in peptidoglycan (PG) biosynthesis, namely transpeptidation and transglycosylation. Depending on their capacity to catalyze either reactions or only transpeptidation, they are considered as class A or class B PBPs, respectively. β-lactam antibiotics inhibit the transpeptidase domain of both of these classes of enzymes, resulting in inhibition of PG assembly, inhibition of bacterial growth, and ultimately leading to cell death. In streptococci, PBPs are also the primary determinants of penicillin-resistance. Moreover, because of their crucial role in PG formation, they are implicated in fundamental aspects of cell morphology. The goal of this work was thus to characterize S. gordonii PBPs and to explore their functions in terms of vegetative life and penicillin-resistance development. First, single and double PBP-inactivated mutants were generated and their effect on the bacterial physiology, cell wall biochemistry and ultrastructural morphology was assessed. This demonstrated the essentiality or dispensability of each protein for bacterial life. Second, penicillin-resistant mutants were generated by cyclic exposure to increasing concentrations of the drug. Characterization of these mutants pointed out the importance of both PBP and non-PBP mutations, as well as the crucial role of the class A PBPs in the development of penicillin-resistance. Further experiments on resistant isolates demonstrated the fitness cost of this resistance, but also the capacity of S. gordonii to adapt and regain the fitness of the wild-type. Finally, the promoters of PBP genes were determined and their expression was monitored using luciferase fusions. This showed that penicillin-resistance, in addition to modifications at the level of the protein, also triggered genetic alterations. Moreover, penicillin itself generated modifications in the expression of specific PBPs.

Association of hemolytic activity of Pseudomonas entomophila, a versatile soil bacterium, with cyclic lipopeptide production.

Pseudomonas entomophila is an entomopathogenic bacterium that is able to infect and kill Drosophila melanogaster upon ingestion. Its genome sequence suggests that it is a versatile soil bacterium closely related to Pseudomonas putida. The GacS/GacA two-component system plays a key role in P. entomophila pathogenicity, controlling many putative virulence factors and AprA, a secreted protease important to escape the fly immune response. P. entomophila secretes a strong diffusible hemolytic activity. Here, we showed that this activity is linked to the production of a new cyclic lipopeptide containing 14 amino acids and a 3-C(10)OH fatty acid that we called entolysin. Three nonribosomal peptide synthetases (EtlA, EtlB, EtlC) were identified as responsible for entolysin biosynthesis. Two additional components (EtlR, MacAB) are necessary for its production and secretion. The P. entomophila GacS/GacA two-component system regulates entolysin production, and we demonstrated that its functioning requires two small RNAs and two RsmA-like proteins. Finally, entolysin is required for swarming motility, as described for other lipopeptides, but it does not participate in the virulence of P. entomophila for Drosophila. While investigating the physiological role of entolysin, we also uncovered new phenotypes associated with P. entomophila, including strong biocontrol abilities.

Adalimumab in acute sciatica reduces the long-term need for surgery: a 3-year follow-up of a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Two subcutaneous injections of adalimumab in severe acute sciatica significantly reduced the number of back operations in a short-term randomised controlled clinical trial. OBJECTIVE: To determine in a 3-year follow-up study whether the short-term benefit of adalimumab in sciatica is sustained over a longer period of time. METHODS: The primary outcome of this analysis was incident discectomy. Three years after randomisation, information on surgery could be retrieved in 56/61 patients (92%).A multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for potential confounders, was used to determine factors predisposing to surgery. RESULTS: Twenty-three (41%) patients had back surgery within 3 years, 8/29 (28%) in the adalimumab group and 15/27 (56%) in the placebo group, p=0.04. Adalimumab injections reduced the need for back surgery by 61% (HR)=0.39 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.92). In a multivariate model, treatment with a tumour necrosis factor-α antagonist remained the strongest protective factor (HR=0.17, p=0.002). Other significant predictors of surgery were a good correlation between symptoms and MRI findings (HR=11.6, p=0.04), baseline intensity of leg pain (HR=1.3, p=0.06), intensity of back pain (HR=1.4, p=0.03) and duration of sickness leave (HR=1.01 per day, p=0.03). CONCLUSION: A short course of adalimumab in patients with severe acute sciatica significantly reduces the need for back surgery.