990 resultados para climate reconstruction


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Historical wind data for Kuwait and Dubai have been analysed to determine the design wind speed for the region. Kuwait and Dubai are located near the northern and southern end of the Persian Gulf respectively. The winds in this region just north of the Tropic of Capricorn are dominated by the Shamal, literally 'north' in Arabic. The winds have traditional Bedouin names such as Al-Haffar (the driller), and Barih Thorayya (morning star). The Al-Dabaran is generally the strongest Shamal in late summer, and can last up to 40 days bringing sand and duststorms.

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The role of emotion during learning encounters in science teacher education is under-researched and under-theorized. In this case study we explore the emotional climates, that is, the collective states of emotional arousal, of a preservice secondary science education class to illuminate practice for producing and reproducing high quality learning experiences for preservice science teachers. Theories related to the sociology of emotions informed our analyses from data sources such as preservice teachers’ perceptions of the emotional climate of their class, emotional facial expressions, classroom conversations, and cogenerative dialogue. The major outcome from our analyses was that even though preservice teachers reported high positive emotional climate during the professor’s science demonstrations, they also valued the professor’s in the moment reflections on her teaching that were associated with low emotional climate ratings. We co-relate emotional climate data and preservice teachers’ comments during cogenerative dialogue to expand our understanding of high quality experiences and emotional climate in science teacher education. Our study also contributes refinements to research perspectives on emotional climate.

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In a post-disaster environment, housing reconstruction projects frequently face enormous difficulties due to the various, often apparently ill-considered, internal and external factors. Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) operating in post-disaster settings such as in Afghanistan continue to face blame over the failure of reconstruction projects, and worse, they are sometimes even viewed as being corrupt entities. While it is not always possible for NGOs to eliminate or reduce the impact of factors that are outside their control, they certainly can increase the chances of project success by placing considerable emphasis on working more effectively with the affected communities. To achieve maximum community participation in reconstruction projects , this research develops a specific logical framework to guide the process of community participation in post-disaster housing reconstruction in Afghanistan.

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Background Research has identified associations between serum 25(OH)D and a range of clinical outcomes in chronic kidney disease and wider populations. The present study aimed to investigate vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency in dialysis patients and the relationship with vitamin D intake and sun exposure. Methods A cross-sectional study was used. Participants included 30 peritoneal dialysis (PD) (43.3% male; 56.87 ± 16.16 years) and 26 haemodialysis (HD) (80.8% male; 63.58 ± 15.09 years) patients attending a department of renal medicine. Explanatory variables were usual vitamin D intake from diet/supplements (IU day−1) and sun exposure (min day−1). Vitamin D intake, sun exposure and ethnic background were assessed by questionnaire. Weight, malnutrition status and routine biochemistry were also assessed. Data were collected during usual department visits. The main outcome measure was serum 25(OH)D (nm). Results Prevalence of inadequate/insufficient vitamin D intake differed between dialysis modality, with 31% and 43% found to be insufficient (<50 nm) and 4% and 33% found to be deficient (<25 nm) in HD and PD patients, respectively (P < 0.001). In HD patients, there was a correlation between diet and supplemental vitamin D intake and 25(OH)D (ρ = 0.84, P < 0.001) and average sun exposure and 25(OH)D (ρ = 0.50, P < 0.02). There were no associations in PD patients. The results remained significant for vitamin D intake after multiple regression, adjusting for age, gender and sun exposure. Conclusions The results highlight a strong association between vitamin D intake and 25(OH)D in HD but not PD patients, with implications for replacement recommendations. The findings indicate that, even in a sunny climate, many dialysis patients are vitamin D deficient, highlighting the need for exploration of determinants and consequences.

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The foliage of a plant performs vital functions. As such, leaf models are required to be developed for modelling the plant architecture from a set of scattered data captured using a scanning device. The leaf model can be used for purely visual purposes or as part of a further model, such as a fluid movement model or biological process. For these reasons, an accurate mathematical representation of the surface and boundary is required. This paper compares three approaches for fitting a continuously differentiable surface through a set of scanned data points from a leaf surface, with a technique already used for reconstructing leaf surfaces. The techniques which will be considered are discrete smoothing D2-splines [R. Arcangeli, M. C. Lopez de Silanes, and J. J. Torrens, Multidimensional Minimising Splines, Springer, 2004.], the thin plate spline finite element smoother [S. Roberts, M. Hegland, and I. Altas, Approximation of a Thin Plate Spline Smoother using Continuous Piecewise Polynomial Functions, SIAM, 1 (2003), pp. 208--234] and the radial basis function Clough-Tocher method [M. Oqielat, I. Turner, and J. Belward, A hybrid Clough-Tocher method for surface fitting with application to leaf data., Appl. Math. Modelling, 33 (2009), pp. 2582-2595]. Numerical results show that discrete smoothing D2-splines produce reconstructed leaf surfaces which better represent the original physical leaf.

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Effective response by government and individuals to the risk of land degradation requires an understanding of regional climate variations and the impacts of climate and management on condition and productivity of land and vegetation resources. Analysis of past land degradation and climate variability provides some understanding of vulnerability to current and future climate changes and the information needs for more sustainable management. We describe experience in providing climate risk assessment information for managing for the risk of land degradation in north-eastern Australian arid and semi-arid regions used for extensive grazing. However, we note that information based on historical climate variability, which has been relied on in the past, will now also have to factor in the influence of human-induced climate change. Examples illustrate trends in climate for Australia over the past decade and the impacts on indicators of resource condition. The analysis highlights the benefits of insights into past trends and variability in rainfall and other climate variables based on extended historic databases. This understanding in turn supports more reliable regional climate projections and decision support information for governments and land managers to better manage the risk of land degradation now and in the future.

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This paper presents an event-based failure model to predict the number of failures that occur in water distribution assets. Often, such models have been based on analysis of historical failure data combined with pipe characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper weather data have been added to the model to take into account the commonly observed seasonal variation of the failure rate. The theoretical basis of existing logistic regression models is briefly described in this paper, along with the refinements made to the model for inclusion of seasonal variation of weather. The performance of these refinements is tested using data from two Australian water authorities.

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This paper details a statistical analysis of historical failure data, which focuses on determining the manner in which local climate affects pipe failure rates. It was found that seasonality exists in the data, indicating an affect of local climate on failure rate. Significant variation in failure rates was seen between the months of December and May, especially in February/March, whilst limited variations were seen in other months of the year. Further analysis found that failure rates were strongly correlated with minimum antecedent precipitation index and net evaporation and that climate affected failure rate by influencing soil moisture content. Interaction affects between static attributes of the pipe-environment system and local climate were also investigated.

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Realistic virtual models of leaf surfaces are important for a number of applications in the plant sciences, such as modelling agrichemical spray droplet movement and spreading on the surface. In this context, the virtual surfaces are required to be sufficiently smooth to facilitate the use of the mathematical equations that govern the motion of the droplet. While an effective approach is to apply discrete smoothing D2-spline algorithms to reconstruct the leaf surfaces from three-dimensional scanned data, difficulties arise when dealing with wheat leaves that tend to twist and bend. To overcome this topological difficulty, we develop a parameterisation technique that rotates and translates the original data, allowing the surface to be fitted using the discrete smoothing D2-spline methods in the new parameter space. Our algorithm uses finite element methods to represent the surface as a linear combination of compactly supported shape functions. Numerical results confirm that the parameterisation, along with the use of discrete smoothing D2-spline techniques, produces realistic virtual representations of wheat leaves.

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Potential conflicts exist between biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation as trade-offs in multiple-use land management. This study aims to evaluate public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation policy considering respondents’ uncertainty on their choice. We conducted a choice experiment using land-use scenarios in the rural Kushiro watershed in northern Japan. The results showed that the public strongly wish to avoid the extinction of endangered species in preference to climate-change mitigation in the form of carbon sequestration by increasing the area of managed forest. Knowledge of the site and the respondents’ awareness of the personal benefits associated with supporting and regulating services had a positive effect on their preference for conservation plans. Thus, decision-makers should be careful about how they provide ecological information for informed choices concerning ecosystem services tradeoffs. Suggesting targets with explicit indicators will affect public preferences, as well as the willingness of the public to pay for such measures. Furthermore, the elicited-choice probabilities approach is useful for revealing the distribution of relative preferences for incomplete scenarios, thus verifying the effectiveness of indicators introduced in the experiment.

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The majority of children cease napping between 3 and 5 years of age yet, internationally, the allocation of a sleep time during the day for children of this age remains a practice in many early childhood education (ECE) settings. These dual circumstances present a disjuncture between children's sleep needs and center practices, that may cause conflict for staff, increase stress for children and escalate negative emotional climate in the room. Testing this hypothesis requires observation of both the emotional climate and behavioral management used in ECE rooms that extends into the sleep time. This study was the first to apply the Classroom Assessment and Scoring System (CLASS) Pre-K (Pianta, La Paro, & Hamre, 2008) to observe the emotional climate and behavioral management during sleep time. Pilot results indicated that the CLASS Pre-K functioned reliably to measure emotional climate and behavioral management in sleep time. However, new sleep-specific examples of the dimensions used were developed, to help orient fieldworkers to the CLASS Pre-K rating system in the sleep time context. The CLASS was then used to assess emotional climate and behavior management between the non-sleep and sleep time sessions, in 113 ECE rooms in Queensland, Australia. In these rooms 2.114 children were observed. Of these children, 71% did not sleep at any point during the allotted sleep times. There was a significant drop in emotional climate and behavioral management between the non-sleep and sleep-time sessions. Furthermore, the duration of mandated sleep time (a period of time where no activities are provided to non-sleeping children) accounted for significant independent variance in the observed emotional climate during sleep-time. The CLASS Pre-K presents a valuable tool to assess the emotional climate and behavior management during sleep-time and draws attention to the need for further studies of sleep time in ECE settings.

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Quantum-like models can be fruitfully used to model attitude change in a social context. Next steps require data, and higher dimensional models. Here, we discuss an exploratory study that demonstrates an order effect when three question sets about Climate Beliefs, Political Affiliation and Attitudes Towards Science are presented in different orders within a larger study of n=533 subjects. A quantum-like model seems possible, and we propose a new experiment which could be used to test between three possible models for this scenario.

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Social resilience concepts are gaining momentum in environmental planning through an emerging understanding of the socio-ecological nature of biophysical systems. There is a disconnect, however, between these concepts and the sociological and psychological literature related to social resilience. Further still, both schools of thought are not well connected to the concepts of social assessment (SA) and social impact assessment (SIA) that are the more standard tools supporting planning and decision-making. This raises questions as to how emerging social resilience concepts can translate into improved SA/SIA practices to inform regional-scale adaptation. Through a review of the literature, this paper suggests that more cross-disciplinary integration is needed if social resilience concepts are to have a genuine impact in helping vulnerable regions tackle climate change.