Application of one-list capture-recapture models to scrapie surveillance data in Great Britain

In this paper, we apply one-list capture-recapture models to estimate the number of scrapie-affected holdings in Great Britain. We applied this technique to the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme dataset where cases from all the surveillance sources monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain, the abattoir survey, the fallen stock survey and the statutory reporting of clinical cases, are gathered. Consequently, the estimates of prevalence obtained from this scheme should be comprehensive and cover all the different presentations of the disease captured individually by the surveillance sources. Two estimators were applied under the one-list approach: the Zelterman estimator and Chao's lower bound estimator. Our results could only inform with confidence the scrapie-affected holding population with clinical disease; this moved around the figure of 350 holdings in Great Britain for the period under study, April 2005-April 2006. Our models allowed the stratification by surveillance source and the input of covariate information, holding size and country of origin. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the active surveillance of scrapie in the European Union

The abattoir and the fallen stock surveys constitute the active surveillance component aimed at improving the detection of scrapie across the European Union. Previous studies have suggested the occurrence of significant differences in the operation of the surveys across the EU. In the present study we assessed the standardisation of the surveys throughout time across the EU and identified clusters of countries with similar underlying characteristics allowing comparisons between them. In the absence of sufficient covariate information to explain the observed variability across countries, we modelled the unobserved heterogeneity by means of non-parametric distributions on the risk ratios of the fallen stock over the abattoir survey. More specifically, we used the profile likelihood method on 2003, 2004 and 2005 active surveillance data for 18 European countries on classical scrapie, and on 2004 and 2005 data for atypical scrapie separately. We extended our analyses to include the limited covariate information available, more specifically, the proportion of the adult sheep population sampled by the fallen stock survey every year. Our results show that the between-country heterogeneity dropped in 2004 and 2005 relative to that of 2003 for classical scrapie. As a consequence, the number of clusters in the last two years was also reduced indicating the gradual standardisation of the surveillance efforts across the EU. The crude analyses of the atypical data grouped all the countries in one cluster and showed non-significant gain in the detection of this type of scrapie by any of the two sources. The proportion of the population sampled by the fallen stock appeared significantly associated with our risk ratio for both types of scrapie, although in opposite directions: negative for classical and positive for atypical. The initial justification for the fallen stock, targeting a high-risk population to increase the likelihood of case finding, appears compromised for both types of scrapie in some countries.

Modeling cumulative evidence for freedom from disease with applications to BSE surveillance trials

This investigation deals with the question of when a particular population can be considered to be disease-free. The motivation is the case of BSE where specific birth cohorts may present distinct disease-free subpopulations. The specific objective is to develop a statistical approach suitable for documenting freedom of disease, in particular, freedom from BSE in birth cohorts. The approach is based upon a geometric waiting time distribution for the occurrence of positive surveillance results and formalizes the relationship between design prevalence, cumulative sample size and statistical power. The simple geometric waiting time model is further modified to account for the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity associated with the detection of disease. This is exemplified for BSE using two different models for the diagnostic sensitivity. The model is furthermore modified in such a way that a set of different values for the design prevalence in the surveillance streams can be accommodated (prevalence heterogeneity) and a general expression for the power function is developed. For illustration, numerical results for BSE suggest that currently (data status September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity.

Colloidal stable silica encapsulated nano-magnetic composite as a novel bio-catalyst carrier

A colloidal stable silica-encapsulated magnetic nano-composite of a controlled dimension is, for the first time, employed to carry beta-lactamase via chemical linkage on the silica overlayer: activity study reflects that this new type of immobilisation allows site (enzyme) isolation, accessibility as good as free enzyme and recovery & reusability upon application of magnetic separation.

Loss of 3-chlorotyrosine by inflammatory oxidants: Implications for the use of 3-chlorotyrosine as a bio-marker in vivo

Activated neutrophils generate the potent oxidant hypochlorous acid (HOCl) from the enzyme myeloperoxidase (MPO). A proposed bio-marker for MPO-derived HOCl in vivo is 3-chlorotyrosine, elevated levels of which have been measured in several human inflammatory pathologies. However, it is unlikely that HOCl is produced as the sole oxidant at sites of chronic inflammation as other reactive species are also produced during the inflammatory response. The work presented shows that free and protein bound 3-chlorotyrosine is lost upon addition of the pro-inflammatory oxidants, HOCl, peroxynitrite, and acidified nitrite. Furthermore, incubation of 3-chlorotyrosine with activated RAW264.7 macrophages or neutrophil-like HL-60 cells resulted in significant loss of 3-chlorotyrosine. Therefore, at sites of chronic inflammation where there is concomitant ONOO- and HOCl formation, it is possible measurement of 3-chlorotyrosine may represent an underestimate of the true extent of tyrosine chlorination. This finding could account for some of the discrepancies reported between 3-chlorotyrosine levels in tissues in the literature. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prospects for bio-molecular control using femtosecond transients parametrised in the wavelet domain [poster]

We discuss the parametrisation of am-plitude and phase genes corre-sponding to space encoded femto-second transients in the wavelet domain. Differential evolution is used to improve the speed of con-vergence of the genetic algorithm. We discuss prospects of bio-molecular control using such methodology.

An FLIR video surveillance system to avoid bridge-ship collision

In this paper, a forward-looking infrared (FLIR) video surveillance system is presented for collision avoidance of moving ships to bridge piers. An image pre-processing algorithm is proposed to reduce clutter noises by multi-scale fractal analysis, in which the blanket method is used for fractal feature computation. Then, the moving ship detection algorithm is developed from image differentials of the fractal feature in the region of surveillance between regularly interval frames. Experimental results have shown that the approach is feasible and effective. It has achieved real-time and reliable alert to avoid collisions of moving ships to bridge piers

Adaptation of an commercially available stabilised R/C helicopter to a fully autonomous surveillance UAV

This paper presents the development of an autonomous surveillance UAV that competed in the Ministry of Defence Grand Challenge 2008. In order to focus on higher-level mission control, the UAV is built upon an existing commercially available stabilised R/C helicopter platform. The hardware architecture is developed to allow for non-invasion integration with the existing stabilised platform, and to enable to the distributed processing of closed loop control and mission goals. The resulting control system proved highly successful and was capable of flying within 40knott gusts. The software and safety architectures were key to the success of the research and also hold the potential for use in the development of more complex system comprising of multiple UAVs.