The role of creativity in entrepreneurship

This paper evaluates the contribution of creativity to entrepreneurship theory and practice in terms of building an holistic and transdisciplinary understanding of its impact. Acknowledgement is made of the subjectivist theory of entrepreneurship which embraces randomness, uncertainty and ambiguity but these factors should then be embedded in wider business and social contexts. The analysis is synthesised into a number of themes, from consideration of its definition, its link with personality and cognitive style, creativity as a process and the use of biography in uncovering data on creative entrepreneurial behaviour. Other relevant areas of discussion include creativity's link with motivation, actualisation and innovation, as well as the interrogation of entrepreneurial artists as owner/managers. These factors are embedded in a critical evaluation of how creativity contributes to successful entrepreneurship practice. Modelling, measuring and testing entrepreneurial creativity are also considered and the paper includes detailed consideration of several models of creativity in entrepreneurship. Recommendations for future theory and practice are also made.

Marketers' perceptions of the implementation difficulties of multichannel marketing

This paper identifies implementation difficulties associated with multichannel marketing as perceived by senior marketers. While, multichannel marketing is being increasingly used because of its revenue enhancing and cost reduction opportunities, it appears more difficult to implement than 'traditional' single channel marketing. Traditional strategy implementation frameworks as typified by Miles and Snow and Porter, do not appear to address the implementation complexities of multichannel strategies especially when considering the dynamism of contemporary external environments. Using the methodology of thematic analysis, three implementation difficulty themes were identified: (1) understanding multichannel customer behaviour; (2) delivering sales, service and pre-purchase information; and (3) dealing with organisational politics and conflict caused by emerging channels. We propose that dynamic strategic frameworks can better address complexity and uncertainty, and overcome implementation difficulties. The paper concludes with general and specific research propositions to test the effectiveness of dynamic strategic frameworks in terms of the three themes.

Avatar Obama in the age of liquid celebrity

Barak Obama, orator extraordinaire, the embodiment of the American success myth, 'global' prophet of the adoring masses and multi-media auratic figure, is the leading illustration of what is the expanded nexus of celebrity, spectacle and politics in the age of what Zygmund Bauman refers to as liquid modernity or 'the era of disembedding without re-embedding' (2001, p. 89). This is the era in which a traumatic sense of fear, uncertainty and transience defines one's relationship to the nation state, and social (media) centre, as they lose their economic singularity and cultural coherency and cohesiveness in a world system ever inter-connected and driven increasingly, incessantly by supra-corporate concerns and spectacular celebrity-based presentations. In this world of 'togetherness dismantled' (Bauman 2003, p. 119), the disenfranchised individual feels they cannot meet the trans-capital intensive, show reel-like, boundaryless world on solid ground. That adoration, or a liquefied definition of it, is key to this imagined and affective communion between Obama and those who adore him, suggests that there is a terrible wanting and simultaneous waning to those who look for such rootedness and the promise of deliverance in the celebrity political figure. This is a charismatic authority figure who promises this solidity yet streams in and out of material view, unable to fix or properly propagate their communion beyond triumphant spectacularism. Their 'lightness of being' (ibid, p. 123-9) is powerfully seductive and decidedly empty because it echoes the instantaneous (instant) way in which all lives are increasingly led. I will suggest that liquid celebrity is one of the cornerstones of liquid modernity, and Barack Obama is the epitome of this 'runniness'.

Piecing together the puzzle of graduate employment : factors that shape the graduate work expectations of human resource management students

Providing graduates with a set of skills and attributes relevant to their future employment remains a key topic in both higher education policy and research. This paper reports findings from a pilot study of human resource management (HRM) students' perceptions of the graduate work experience. Specifically, it focuses on how these perceptions are shaped, driven by a concern for the uncertainty - and even fear - expressed by the study's participants in relation to their future workplace experiences. The influences of three key factors in shaping participants' expectations are discussed: the graduate recruitment experience, previous work experiences and 'graduate work folklore' from the stories of family and friends. With these influences not always providing students with a realistic picture of their future work experience, we conclude that educators need to improve the opportunities for practical experience and industry knowledge through work placements, stronger links with industry and increased exposure to the practicalities of work within the curriculum.

Multifaith movements in ultramodernity

Ultramodernity (Willaime 2006), following on from modernity, has been characterised as an era of fear, risk and uncertainty and paradoxically as a time of great hope and global interdependence (Baumann 2006; Beck 2006; Obama 2006). Following the events of September 11, 2001, the Bali and London bombings, a climate of fear has inspired a plethora of policies that have eroded civil liberties, jeopardising trust in state systems and thereby inadvertently elevating the risk of further violence, particularly in so-called Western societies. Conversely, ultramodern scholars, including Jürgen Habermass and Ulrich Beck, have advocated cosmopolitan solutions to more effectively and cooperatively counter global risks. These optimistic scenarios, while reaching populist proportions, have also received their fare share of criticism (Brassett 2008). Indeed, when we look toward the current state of the United Nations it is difficult not to lose hope. Where is the proof that Immanuel Kant’s cosmopolitan condition is coming into being in the global arena beyond these sociological theories? I argue that the rise of multifaith movements in ultramodernity provides this much needed evidence.

Layered dynamic probabilistic networks for spatio-temporal modelling

In applications such as tracking and surveillance in large spatial environments, there is a need for representing dynamic and noisy data and at the same time dealing with them at different levels of detail. In the spatial domain, there has been work dealing with these two issues separately, however, there is no existing common framework for dealing with both of them. In this paper, we propose a new representation framework called the Layered Dynamic Probabilistic Network (LDPN), a special type of Dynamic Probabilistic Network (DPN), capable of handling uncertainty and representing spatial data at various levels of detail. The framework is thus particularly suited to applications in wide-area environments which are characterised by large region size, complex spatial layout and multiple sensors/cameras. For example, a building has three levels: entry/exit to the building, entry/exit between rooms and moving within rooms. To avoid the problem of a relatively large state space associated with a large spatial environment, the LDPN explicitly encodes the hierarchy of connected spatial locations, making it scalable to the size of the environment being modelled. There are three main advantages of the LDPN. First, the reduction in state space makes it suitable for dealing with wide area surveillance involving multiple sensors. Second, it offers a hierarchy of intervals for indexing temporal data. Lastly, the explicit representation of intermediate sub-goals allows for the extension of the framework to easily represent group interactions by allowing coupling between sub-goal layers of different individuals or objects. We describe an adaptation of the likelihood sampling inference scheme for the LDPN, and illustrate its use in a hypothetical surveillance scenario.

Policy recognition in the Abstract Hidden Markov Model

In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem on-line plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process representing the execution of the agent's plan. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. In terms of probabilistic inference, we introduce the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM), a novel type of stochastic processes, provide its dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) structure and analyse the properties of this network. We then describe an application of the Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filter to the AHMM which allows us to construct an efficient, hybrid inference method for this model. In terms of plan recognition, we propose a novel plan recognition framework based on the AHMM as the plan execution model. The Rao-Blackwellised hybrid inference for AHMM can take advantage of the independence properties inherent in a model of plan execution, leading to an algorithm for online probabilistic plan recognition that scales well with the number of levels in the plan hierarchy. This illustrates that while stochastic models for plan execution can be complex, they exhibit special structures which, if exploited, can lead to efficient plan recognition algorithms. We demonstrate the usefulness of the AHMM framework via a behaviour recognition system in a complex spatial environment using distributed video surveillance data.

Exploring potential success factors for procurement of privately financed infrastructure

Australia has joined many governments to adopt public-private partnership (PPP) as a major strategy for procuring infrastructure for decades. However, failures have occurred although the market has been considered to be a mature and sophisticated one. Failures have typically been traced back to inappropriate economic evaluation and a lack of value-for-money. In particular, a literature review has identified that there was no holistic consideration on the evaluation of procurement transactions of PPP projects. The transaction costs of PPPs were not handled properly. In this paper, theories of transaction cost economics are proposed for the purpose of such a holistic institutional economic evaluation. These theories are analysed in order to identify potential critical success factors for a strategic infrastructure procurement framework. The potential critical success factors are identified and grouped into a number of categories that match the theories of transaction cost economics. These categories include (1) Asset Specificity, (2) Organizational Capability, (3) Transaction Frequency, (4) Behavioural Uncertainty, and (5) Environmental Uncertainty. These potential critical success factors may be subject to an empirical test in the future. The proposed framework will offer decision makers with an insight into project life cycle economic outcomes needed to successfully deliver PPPs.

Cost-effectiveness of fiscal policies to prevent obesity

Cost-effective, sustainable strategies are urgently required to curb the global obesity epidemic. To date, fiscal policies such as taxes and subsidies have been driven largely by imperatives to raise revenue or increase supply, rather than to change population behaviours. This paper reviews the economic evaluation literature around the use of fiscal policies to prevent obesity. The cost-effectiveness literature is limited, and more robust economic evaluation studies are required. However, uncertainty and gaps in the effectiveness evidence base need to be addressed first: more studies are needed that collect ‘real-world’ empirical data, and larger studies with more robust designs and longer follow-up timeframes are required. Reliability of cross-price elasticity data needs to be investigated, and greater consideration given to moderators of intervention effects and the sustainability of outcomes. Economic evaluations should adopt a societal perspective, incorporate a broader spectrum of economic costs and consider other factors likely to affect the implementation of fiscal measures. The paucity of recent cost-effectiveness studies means that definitive conclusions about the value for money of fiscal policies for obesity prevention cannot yet be drawn. However, as in other public health areas such as alcohol and tobacco, early indications are that population-level fiscal policies are likely to be potentially effective and cost-saving.

Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.

A hybrid approach to fuzzy risk analysis in stock market

The analysis and prediction of stock market has always been well recognized as a difficult problem due to the level of uncertainty and the factors that affect the price. To tackle this challenge problem, this paper proposed a hybrid approach which mines the useful information utilizing grey system and fuzzy risk analysis in stock prices prediction. In this approach, we firstly provide a model which contains the fuzzy function, k-mean algorithm and grey system (shorted for FKG), then provide the model of fuzzy risk analysis (FRA). A practical example to describe the development of FKG and FRA in stock market is given, and the analytical results provide an evaluation of the method which shows promote results. © 2013 IEEE.

Aggregation of Pi-based forecast to enhance prediction accuracy

In contrast to point forecast, prediction interval-based neural network offers itself as an effective tool to quantify the uncertainty and disturbances that associated with process data. However, single best neural network (NN) does not always guarantee to predict better quality of forecast for different data sets or a whole range of data set. Literature reported that ensemble of NNs using forecast combination produces stable and consistence forecast than single best NN. In this work, a NNs ensemble procedure is introduced to construct better quality of Pis. Weighted averaging forecasts combination mechanism is employed to combine the Pi-based forecast. As the key contribution of this paper, a new Pi-based cost function is proposed to optimize the individual weights for NN in combination process. An optimization algorithm, named simulated annealing (SA) is used to minimize the PI-based cost function. Finally, the proposed method is examined in two different case studies and compared the results with the individual best NNs and available simple averaging Pis aggregating method. Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method improved the quality of Pis than individual best NNs and simple averaging ensemble method.

Psychosocial factors impacting on life transitions among young adults with type 2 diabetes : an Australian - Danish qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) prevalence is increasing rapidly worldwide with a significant increase in young adults. There is limited information about psychosocial and service needs of this group. AIM: To explore similarities and differences in how psychosocial factors impact on Australian and Danish young adults with T2DM and to identify unmet support needs during life transitions. METHOD: A qualitative approach was adopted using thematic content analysis of 26 in-depth semi-structured interviews. An inductive descriptive content analysis was undertaken using a comparative coding system. FINDINGS: Eligible participants were from Australia (12) and Denmark (14), aged 19-42 years who had T2DM for more than 10 months. In general, they reported diabetes management was difficult during transitions and diabetes self-care routines had to change to accommodate life changes. The underpinning sense of 'uncertainty' initiated by life transitions caused guilt that often resulted in low self-worth, anxiety and depression, which in turn had a negative impact on social and professional relationships. The participants emphasised the importance of connectedness to social networks, particularly with T2DM peers, and the need for flexible access to health professionals, age-specific tailored support and lower costs for Australians. Australian participants were more concerned than Danish participants about the cost associated with diabetes care and their ability to stay employed; hence, they were reluctant to disclose diabetes at work. CONCLUSION: T2DM had a similar impact on life transitions of Australian and Danish young adults with T2DM, suggesting health care needs to encompass managing life transitions. Participants had to cope with uncertainty and the impact of people's responses to diabetes, particularly at work and in relationships. Health professionals are urged to integrate these factors in care plans and education, which must be individualised and focus on the psychosocial aspects that operate during life transitions.

The impact of data realities on conservation planning

Conservation planning decisions are typically made on the basis of species distribution or occurrence data, which ideally would have complete spatial and taxonomic coverage. Agencies are constrained in the data they can collect, often pragmatically prioritising certain groups such as threatened species, or methods, such as volunteer surveys. This mismatch between goals and realities inevitably leads to bias and uncertainty in conservation planning outputs, yet few studies have assessed how data realities affect planning outputs. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the Protection Index, a method for assessing conservation progress and priorities, using an extensive dataset on species occurrences and distributions derived from the Florida Natural Areas Inventory. Analyses revealed a high proportion of occurrence records for threatened species and certain taxonomic groups, reflecting the agencies' priorities. We performed a sensitivity analysis on conservation planning outputs, simulating a 'data poor' scenario typical of many real situations; we deleted increasing amounts of data in both a biased (exaggerating patterns observed) and unbiased (random) manner. We assessed the effects of data paucity and bias on the value of potential conservation sites, and planning priorities. Certain high value sites with only a few important species occurrences were more sensitive to data depletion than those with many occurrences. Data bias based on taxonomic bias was more influential to site value than threat rank. To maximise benefit from surveys from a planning perspective, it would be better to focus on poorly surveyed areas rather than adding occurrences in already well represented sites. This study demonstrates the importance of sensitivity analysis in conservation planning, and that the effects of uncertainty and data quality on planning decisions should not be ignored. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

A landscape-scale, applied fire management experiment promotes recovery of a population of the threatened Gouldian Finch, Erythrura gouldiae, in Australia's tropical savannas

Fire is an integral part of savanna ecology and changes in fire patterns are linked to biodiversity loss in savannas worldwide. In Australia, changed fire regimes are implicated in the contemporary declines of small mammals, riparian species, obligate-seeding plants and grass seed-eating birds. Translating this knowledge into management to recover threatened species has proved elusive. We report here on a landscape-scale experiment carried out by the Australian Wildlife Conservancy (AWC) on Mornington Wildlife Sanctuary in northwest Australia. The experiment was designed to understand the response of a key savanna bird guild to fire, and to use that information to manage fire with the aim of recovering a threatened species population. We compared condition indices among three seed-eating bird species-one endangered (Gouldian finch) and two non-threatened (long-tailed finch and double-barred finch)-from two large areas (> 2,830 km2) with initial contrasting fire regimes ('extreme': frequent, extensive, intense fire; versus 'benign': less frequent, smaller, lower intensity fires). Populations of all three species living with the extreme fire regime had condition indices that differed from their counterparts living with the benign fire regime, including higher haematocrit levels in some seasons (suggesting higher levels of activity required to find food), different seasonal haematocrit profiles, higher fat scores in the early wet season (suggesting greater food uncertainty), and then lower muscle scores later in the wet season (suggesting prolonged food deprivation). Gouldian finches also showed seasonally increasing stress hormone concentrations with the extreme fire regime. Cumulatively, these patterns indicated greater nutritional stress over many months for seed-eating birds exposed to extreme fire regimes. We tested these relationships by monitoring finch condition over the following years, as AWC implemented fire management to produce the 'benign' fire regime throughout the property. The condition indices of finch populations originally living with the extreme fire regime shifted to resemble those of their counterparts living with the benign fire regime. This research supports the hypothesis that fire regimes affect food resources for savanna seed-eating birds, with this impact mediated through a range of grass species utilised by the birds over different seasons, and that fire management can effectively moderate that impact. This work provides a rare example of applied research supporting the recovery of a population of a threatened species.