Essays on Labor Market Frictions, Technological Change and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

The dissertation consists of an introductory chapter and three essays that apply search-matching theory to study the interaction of labor market frictions, technological change and macroeconomic fluctuations. The first essay studies the impact of capital-embodied growth on equilibrium unemployment by extending a vintage capital/search model to incorporate vintage human capital. In addition to the capital obsolescence (or creative destruction) effect that tends to raise unemployment, vintage human capital introduces a skill obsolescence effect of faster growth that has the opposite sign. Faster skill obsolescence reduces the value of unemployment, hence wages and leads to more job creation and less job destruction, unambiguously reducing unemployment. The second essay studies the effect of skill biased technological change on skill mismatch and the allocation of workers and firms in the labor market. By allowing workers to invest in education, we extend a matching model with two-sided heterogeneity to incorporate an endogenous distribution of high and low skill workers. We consider various possibilities for the cost of acquiring skills and show that while unemployment increases in most scenarios, the effect on the distribution of vacancy and worker types varies according to the structure of skill costs. When the model is extended to incorporate endogenous labor market participation, we show that the unemployment rate becomes less informative of the state of the labor market as the participation margin absorbs employment effects. The third essay studies the effects of labor taxes on equilibrium labor market outcomes and macroeconomic dynamics in a New Keynesian model with matching frictions. Three policy instruments are considered: a marginal tax and a tax subsidy to produce tax progression schemes, and a replacement ratio to account for variability in outside options. In equilibrium, the marginal tax rate and replacement ratio dampen economic activity whereas tax subsidies boost the economy. The marginal tax rate and replacement ratio amplify shock responses whereas employment subsidies weaken them. The tax instruments affect the degree to which the wage absorbs shocks. We show that increasing tax progression when taxation is initially progressive is harmful for steady state employment and output, and amplifies the sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to shocks. When taxation is initially proportional, increasing progression is beneficial for output and employment and dampens shock responses.

On the Todaro paradox

This paper presents a version of the Harris-Todaro model in which the rural labour market is characterised by monopsonistic behaviour. It is shown that the ‘Todaro paradox’, i.e. that the creation of jobs in the urban sector actually increases urban unemployment, does not hold if the urban employed outnumber the urban unemployed. The latter is the rule in all LDCs.

Long-term clinical outcome after liver transplantation

With transplant rejection rendered a minor concern and survival rates after liver transplantation (LT) steadily improving, long-term complications are attracting more attention. Current immunosuppressive therapies, together with other factors, are accompanied by considerable long-term toxicity, which clinically manifests as renal dysfunction, high risk for cardiovascular disease, and cancer. This thesis investigates the incidence, causes, and risk factors for such renal dysfunction, cardiovascular risk, and cancer after LT. Long-term effects of LT are further addressed by surveying the quality of life and employment status of LT recipients. The consecutive patients included had undergone LT at Helsinki University Hospital from 1982 onwards. Data regarding renal function – creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) – were recorded before and repeatedly after LT in 396 patients. The presence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, impaired fasting glucose, and overweight/obesity before and 5 years after LT was determined among 77 patients transplanted for acute liver failure. The entire cohort of LT patients (540 patients), including both children and adults, was linked with the Finnish Cancer Registry, and numbers of cancers observed were compared to site-specific expected numbers based on national cancer incidence rates stratified by age, gender, and calendar time. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL), measured by the 15D instrument, and employment status were surveyed among all adult patients alive in 2007 (401 patients). The response rate was 89%. Posttransplant cardiovascular risk factor prevalence and HRQoL were compared with that in the age- and gender-matched Finnish general population. The cumulative risk for chronic kidney disease increased from 10% at 5 years to 16% at 10 years following LT. GFR up to 10 years after LT could be predicted by the GFR at 1 year. In patients transplanted for chronic liver disease, a moderate correlation of pretransplant GFR with later GFR was also evident, whereas in acute liver failure patients after LT, even severe pretransplant renal dysfunction often recovered. By 5 years after LT, 71% of acute liver failure patients were receiving antihypertensive medications, 61% were exhibiting dyslipidemia, 10% were diabetic, 32% were overweight, and 13% obese. Compared with the general population, only hypertension displayed a significantly elevated prevalence among patients – 2.7-fold – whereas patients exhibited 30% less dyslipidemia and 71% less impaired fasting glucose. The cumulative incidence of cancer was 5% at 5 years and 13% at 10. Compared with the general population, patients were subject to a 2.6-fold cancer risk, with non-melanoma skin cancer (standardized incidence ratio, SIR, 38.5) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR 13.9) being the predominant malignancies. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma was associated with male gender, young age, and the immediate posttransplant period, whereas old age and antibody induction therapy raised skin-cancer risk. HRQoL deviated clinically unimportantly from the values in the general population, but significant deficits among patients were evident in some physical domains. HRQoL did not seem to decrease with longer follow-up. Although 87% of patients reported improved working capacity, data on return to working life showed marked age-dependency: Among patients aged less than 40 at LT, 70 to 80% returned to work, among those aged 40 to 50, 55%, and among those above 50, 15% to 28%. The most common cause for unemployment was early retirement before LT. Those patients employed exhibited better HRQoL than those unemployed. In conclusion, although renal impairment, hypertension, and cancer are evidently common after LT and increase with time, patients’ quality of life remains comparable with that of the general population.

Functional Outcome after Free Flap Reconstructions in Oral and Pharyngeal Cancer

Oral cancer ranks among the 10 most common cancers worldwide. Since it is commonly diagnosed at locally advanced stage, curing the cancer demands extensive tissue resection. The emergent defect is reconstructed generally with a free flap transfer. Repair of the upper aerodigestive track with maintenance of its multiform activities is challenging. The aim of the study was to extract comprehensive treatment outcomes for patients having undergone microvascular free flap transfer because of large oral cavity or pharyngeal cancer. Ninety-four patients were analyzed for postoperative survival and complications. Forty-four patients were followed-up and analyzed for functional outcome, which was determined in terms of quality of life, speech, swallowing, and intraoral sensation. Quality of life was assessed using the University of Washington Head and Neck Questionnaire. Speech was analyzed for aerodynamic parameters and for nasal acoustic energy, as well as perceptually for articulatory proficiency, voice quality, and intelligibility. Videofluorography was performed to determine the swallowing ability. Intraoral sensation was measured by moving 2-point discrimination. The 3-year overall survival was over 40%. The 1-year disease-free survival was 43%. Postoperative complications arose in over half of the patients. Flap success rate was high. Perioperative mortality varied between 2% and 11%. Unemployment and heavy drinking were the strongest predictors of survival. Sociodemographic factors were found to associate with quality of life. The global quality of life score deteriorated and did not return to the preoperative level. Significant reduction was detectable in the domains measuring chewing and speech, and in appearance and shoulder function. The basic elements necessary for normal speech were maintained. Speech intelligibility reduced and was related to the misarticulations of the /r/ and /s/ phonemes. Deviant /r/ and /s/ persisted in most patients. Hoarseness and hypernasality occurred infrequently. One year postoperatively, 98% of the patients had achieved oral nutrition and half of them were on a regular masticated diet. Overt and silent aspiration was encountered throughout the follow-up. At 12-month swallow test, 44% of the patients aspirated, 70% of whom silently. Of these patients, 15% presented with pulmonary changes referring to aspiration. Intraoral sensation weakened but was unrelated to oral functions. The results provide new data for oral reconstructions and highlight the importance of the functional outcome of the treatment for an oral cancer patient. The mouth and the pharynx encompass a unit of utmost functional complexity. Surgery should continue to make progress in this area, and methods that lead to good function should be developed. Operational outcome should always be evaluated in terms of function.

Pengarna eller livet? : En kvalitativ och longitudinell studie om långtidsarbetslösa unga i ett aktörsperspektiv

Your money or your life? A qualitative follow-up study of the young unemployed from an actor perspective is a qualitative and longitudinal study following 36 unemployed young people in Helsinki over a span of ten years. The purpose of the study is to shed light on how a few young people view employment/unemployment and their lives and future, how they as unemployed perceive their encounters with society, and how society supports them. Four so-called key informants were followed at a finer level of empirical detail. They were chosen for the thematic interviews because of their different personalities, starting points and preferences. Although some differences were expected, what the results show is quite striking. The individual stories raise a number of questions about differences between young people, about society s view of the young unemployed, and about the principles behind the so-called activation policy and how society s support is distributed. The key informants descriptions underline that the group young unemployed does not consist of individuals who are alike but that life is complex, that paid work and unemployment can be perceived very differently, and that background and unofficial support can have consequences for self-perception and for ways of looking at the future, vocational choices, paid work and activation policy. Margaret S. Archer s theory of Morphogenesis and Barbara Cruikshank s theory of constructing democracies compose the study s theoretical framework. The key informants stories give a picture of a formal support system that, even though it puts part of the responsibility for unemployment on the individuals themselves, in the name of fairness and equality, treats them in an impersonal way, not giving their personal situation and wishes much weight. As a consequence, those who share the dominant values of society do well, while others who do not are faced with difficulties. The bigger the gap between society s and the individual s values, the bigger the risk to be met by little understanding and by penalties. And vice versa: Those who initially have the right values and know how to deal with authorities get heard and their opinions get accepted. The informants ask for a more personal encounter, which could improve both the atmosphere and the clients experiences of being heard. Still the risk of having a more individualistic system should be addressed, as a new system might generate new winners, but just as well give new losers. Finally, we have to ask if the so-called activation policy is looking for answers primarily to a macro-level problem on the micro-level. If it does not produce more jobs, its support for the unemployed will be insignificant. It is not enough to think about what to do at the grassroots level to make the system more functional and support job-seeking. If the current rate of unemployment endures, the quality of life of the unemployed should be addressed. A first step could be taken by placing less guilt on the unemployed. Instead of talking about activating the unemployed, discussion should be targeted at removing structural impediments to employment. If we want to have less polarisation between the those with paid work and those without, who often struggle with low incomes, we need to include the macro-level in the discussion. What does high unemployment mean in a work-based society, where the individual s self-perception and important social forms of support are linked to labour income? And what can be done at the macro-level to change this undesirable condition at the micro-level? Keywords: Unemployment, Youth, Public interventions, Activation policy, Individual actors, Qualitative, Longitudinal, Holistic, Helsinki, Finland

The effects of marriage partners' socio-economic positions on the risk of divorce in Finland

Väitöskirjatutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten aviopuolisoiden sosioekonominen asema vaikuttaa avioeroriskiin Suomessa. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin Tilastokeskuksen rekistereistä koottua aineistoa, joka koskee suomalaisten ensimmäisiä avioliittoja vuoden 1990 lopussa ja avioeroja vuosina 1991−93. Väitöskirjaan sisältyy kolme osatutkimusta. Ensimmäinen osatutkimus käsitteli avioeroriskin vaihtelua aviopuolisoiden sosioekonomisen aseman eri osatekijöiden (koulutusaste, sosiaaliryhmä, pääasiallinen toiminta, tulotaso, asunnon omistaminen ja asumisahtaus) mukaan. Kaiken kaikkiaan avioeroriski oli sitä pienempi, mitä paremmassa taloudellisessa ja sosiaalisessa asemassa aviopuolisot olivat. Esimerkiksi miehen ja vaimon korkea koulutusaste, toimihenkilöammatti, työssäkäynti (etenkin verrattuna työttömyyteen) sekä omistusasunnossa asuminen liittyivät pienentyneeseen avioeroriskiin. Vaimon sosioekonomisen aseman yhteys avioeroriskiin oli paljolti samanlainen kuin miehen aseman yhteys. Huomattavin poikkeus tähän oli, että vaimon suuret tulot lisäsivät avioeroriskiä, vaikka miehen suurilla tuloilla oli päinvastainen vaikutus. Lisäksi kotitaloustyötä pääasiallisena toimintanaan tekevillä naisilla (pääasiallisen toiminnan luokka ”muut”) oli vielä pienempi avioeroriski kuin työssäkäyvillä naisilla. Toisessa osatutkimuksessa keskityttiin aviomiehen ja vaimon aseman yhdistettyyn vaikutukseen. Selviä viitteitä siitä, että puolisoiden koulutustasojen erilaisuus lisäisi eroriskiä, ei saatu. Pareilla, joissa molemmilla oli enintään perusasteen koulutus, oli kuitenkin odotettua pienempi avioeroriski. Eroriski oli suhteellisen alhainen pareilla, joissa vaimo oli työssäkäyvä tai kotitaloustyötä tekevä ja aviomies työssäkäyvä. Eroriskiä kasvatti se, että aviomies, vaimo tai molemmat puolisot olivat työttömiä. Vaimon korkea tulotaso lisäsi eroriskiä miehen kaikilla tulotasoilla mutta erityisen voimakkaasti silloin, kun miehen tulotaso oli alhainen. Kolmanneksi selvitettiin, vaikuttaako puolisoiden sosioekonominen asema avioeroriskiin eri tavalla riippuen siitä, kauanko avioliitto on kestänyt. Tällöin havaittiin, että vähän koulutettujen ja työntekijäammateissa toimivien puolisoiden suuri eroriski rajoittuu paljolti nuorimpiin avioliittoihin. Sen sijaan esim. puolisoiden työttömyys, vaimon korkea tulotaso ja vuokra-asunnossa asuminen kasvattivat eroriskiä riippumatta siitä, kuinka kauan avioliitto oli kestänyt. Kaiken kaikkiaan eroriski oli siis sitä pienempi, mitä paremmassa taloudellisessa ja sosiaalisessa asemassa puolisot olivat. Vaimon taloudellisilla ja sosiaalisilla resursseilla näyttää kuitenkin olevan myös joitakin avioeroriskiä lisääviä vaikutuksia.

Hyvinvointivaltion optimaalisen köyhyyspolitiikan määrittelyä

The purpose of this research is to identify the optimal poverty policy for a welfare state. Poverty is defined by income. Policies for reducing poverty are considered primary, and those for reducing inequality secondary. Poverty is seen as a function of the income transfer system within a welfare state. This research presents a method for optimising this function for the purposes of reducing poverty. It is also implemented in the representative population sample within the Income Distribution Data. SOMA simulation model is used. The iterative simulation process is continued until a level of poverty is reached at which improvements can no longer be made. Expenditures and taxes are kept in balance during the process. The result consists of two programmes. The first programme (social assistance programme) was formulated using five social assistance parameters, all of which dealt with the norms of social assistance for adults (€/month). In the second programme (basic benefits programme), in which social assistance was frozen at the legislative level of 2003, the parameter with the strongest poverty reduction effect turned out to be one of the basic unemployment allowances. This was followed by the norm of the national pension for a single person, two parameters related to housing allowance, and the norm for financial aid for students of higher education institutions. The most effective financing parameter measured by gini-coefficient in all programmes was the percent of capital taxation. Furthermore, these programmes can also be examined in relation to their costs. The social assistance programme is significantly cheaper than the basic benefits programme, and therefore with regard to poverty, the social assistance programme is more cost effective than the basic benefits programme. Therefore, public demand for raising the level of basic benefits does not seem to correspond to the most cost effective poverty policy. Raising basic benefits has most effect on reducing poverty within the group of people whose basic benefits are raised. Raising social assistance, on the other hand, seems to have a strong influence on the poverty of all population groups. The most significant outcome of this research is the development of a method through which a welfare state’s income transfer-based safety net, which has severely deteriorated in recent decades, might be mended. The only way of doing so involves either social assistance or some forms of basic benefits and supplementing these by modifying social assistance.

Not in all Walks of Life? : Social Differences in Suicide Mortality

In Finland, the suicide mortality trend has been decreasing during the last decade and a half, yet suicide was the fourth most common cause of death among both Finnish men and women aged 15 64 years in 2006. However, suicide does not occur equally among population sub-groups. Two notable social factors that position people at different risk of suicide are socioeconomic and employment status: those with low education, employed in manual occupations, having low income and those who are unemployed have been found to have an elevated suicide risk. The purpose of this study was to provide a systematic analysis of these social differences in suicide mortality in Finland. Besides studying socioeconomic trends and differences in suicide according to age and sex, different indicators for socioeconomic status were used simultaneously, taking account of their pathways and mutual associations while also paying attention to confounding and mediatory effects of living arrangements and employment status. Register data obtained from Statistics Finland were used in this study. In some analyses suicides were divided into two groups according to contributory causes of death: the first group consisted of suicide deaths that had alcohol intoxication as one of the contributory causes, and the other group is comprised of all other suicide deaths. Methods included Poisson and Cox regression models. Despite the decrease in suicide mortality trend, social differences still exist. Low occupation-based social class proved to be an important determinant of suicide risk among both men and women, but the strong independent effect of education on alcohol-associated suicide indicates that the roots of these differences are probably established in early adulthood when educational qualifications are obtained and health-behavioural patterns set. High relative suicide mortality among the unemployed during times of economic boom suggests that selective processes may be responsible for some of the employment status differences in suicide. However, long-term unemployment seems to have causal effects on suicide, which, especially among men, partly stem from low income. In conclusion, the results in this study suggest that education, occupation-based social class and employment status have causal effects on suicide risk, but to some extent selection into low education and unemployment are also involved in the explanations for excess suicide mortality among the socially deprived. It is also conceivable that alcohol use is to some extent behind social differences in suicide. In addition to those with low education, manual workers and the unemployed, young people, whose health-related behaviour is still to be adopted, would most probably benefit from suicide prevention programmes.

Sikiöaikana päihteille altistuneiden lasten kasvuympäristö ja kehitys

Life of children exposed to alcohol or drugs in utero This study focused on the growth environment, physical development and socio-emotional development of children, aged 16 and under, who had been exposed to alcohol (n=78) or drugs (n=15) in utero. The aim of the study was to obtain a comprehensive picture of the living conditions of these children and to examine the role of the growth environment in their development. The study was carried out using questionnaires, written life stories and interviews. Attachment theory was used as a background theory in the study. Over half of the children exposed to alcohol were diagnosed with foetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), one quarter was diagnosed with foetal alcohol effects (FAE), and one fifth had no diagnosis. Most of the children exposed to drugs had been exposed to either amphetamines or cannabis, and a smaller number to heroin. Some of the children exposed to alcohol were mentally handicapped or intellectually impaired. The children exposed to drugs did not exhibit any serious learning difficulties but a considerable number of them had socio-emotional development problems. Language and speech problems and attention, concentration and social interaction problems were typical among both the children exposed to alcohol and those exposed to drugs. Only one child had been placed into long-term foster care in a family immediately after leaving the maternity hospital. In biological families there had been neglect, violence, mental health problems, crime and unemployment, and many parents were already dead. Two of the children had been sexually abused and four were suspected of having been abused. From the point of view of the children's development, the three most critical issues were 1) the range of illnesses and handicaps that had impaired their functional capacity as a result of their prenatal exposure to alcohol, 2) child's age at the time of placement on a long-term basis, and 3) the number of their traumatic experiences. The relationship with their biological parents after placement also played a role. Children with symptoms were found in all diagnosis categories and types of exposure. Children with the smallest number of symptoms were found among those who had never lived with their biological parents. Almost all children were exhibiting strong symptoms at the time of placement in foster care. In most cases, they were behaving in a disorderly manner towards others, but some children were withdrawn. The most conspicuous feature among those with the most severe symptoms was their disorganized behaviour. Placement in a foster family enhanced the children's development, but did not solve the problems. The foster parents who brought these children up did not receive as much therapy for the children and support for the upbringing as they appear to have needed. In Finland, transfer to long-term custody is based on strict criteria. The rights of children prescribed in the child protection law are not fulfilled in practice. Key words: FASD, FAS, FAE, alcohol exposure, drugs exposure, illegal drugs, early interaction, child development, attachment

Modern Societal Impulses and their Nordic Manifestations : On Emancipation and Constraint in Societal Development

The 1980s and the early 1990s have proved to be an important turning point in the history of the Nordic welfare states. After this breaking point, the Nordic social order has been built upon a new foundation. This study shows that the new order is mainly built upon new hierarchies and control mechanisms that have been developed consistently through economic and labour market policy measures. During the post-war period Nordic welfare states to an increasing extent created equality of opportunity and scope for agency among people. Public social services were available for all and the tax-benefit system maintained a level income distribution. During this golden era of Nordic welfare state, the scope for agency was, however, limited by social structures. Public institutions and law tended to categorize people according to their life circumstances ascribing them a predefined role. In the 1980s and 1990s this collectivist social order began to mature and it became subject to political renegotiation. Signs of a new social order in the Nordic countries have included the liberation of the financial markets, the privatizing of public functions and redefining the role of the public sector. It is now possible to reassess the ideological foundations of this new order. As a contrast to widely used political rhetoric, the foundation of the new order has not been the ideas of individual freedom or choice. Instead, the most important aim appears to have been to control and direct people to act in accordance with the rules of the market. The various levels of government and the social security system have been redirected to serve this goal. Instead of being a mechanism for redistributing income, the Nordic social security system has been geared towards creating new hierarchies on the Nordic labour markets. During the past decades, conditions for receiving income support and unemployment benefit have been tightened in all Nordic countries. As a consequence, people have been forced to accept deteriorating terms and conditions on the labour market. Country-specific variations exist, however: in sum Sweden has been most conservative, Denmark most innovative and Finland most radical in reforming labour market policy. The new hierarchies on the labour market have co-incided with slow or non-existent growth of real wages and with a strong growth of the share of capital income. Slow growth of real wages has kept inflation low and thus secured the value of capital. Societal development has thus progressed from equality of opportunity during the age of the welfare states towards a hierarchical social order where the majority of people face increasing constraints and where a fortunate minority enjoys prosperity and security.

Empirical Studies on Labor Market Matching (summary section only)

This thesis analyzes how matching takes place at the Finnish labor market from three different angles. The Finnish labor market has undergone severe structural changes following the economic crisis in the early 1990s. The labor market has had problems adjusting from these changes and hence a high and persistent unemployment has followed. In this thesis I analyze if matching problems, and in particular if changes in matching, can explain some of this persistence. The thesis consists of three essays. In the first essay Finnish Evidence of Changes in the Labor Market Matching Process the matching process at the Finnish labor market is analyzed. The key finding is that the matching process has changed thoroughly between the booming 1980s and the post-crisis period. The importance of the number of unemployed, and in particular long-term unemployed, for the matching process has vanished. More unemployed do not increase matching as theory predicts but rather the opposite. In the second essay, The Aggregate Matching Function and Directed Search -Finnish Evidence, stock-flow matching as a potential micro foundation of the aggregate matching function is studied. In the essay I show that newly unemployed match mainly with the stock of vacancies while longer term unemployed match with the inflow of vacancies. When aggregating I still find evidence of the traditional aggregate matching function. This could explain the huge support the aggregate matching function has received despite its odd randomness assumption. The third essay, How do Registered Job Seekers really match? -Finnish occupational level Evidence, studies matching for nine occupational groups and finds that very different matching problems exist for different occupations. In this essay also misspecification stemming from non-corresponding variables is dealt with through the introduction of a completely new set of variables. The new outflow measure used is vacancies filled with registered job seekers and it is matched by the supply side measure registered job seekers.

Examining effectiveness of an immigrant labor market integration intervention. The role of acculturation, discrimination, self-efficacy, outcome expectances, action and coping planning.

The designing of effective intervention tools to improve immigrants’ labor market integration remains an important topic in contemporary Western societies. This study examines whether and how a new intervention tool, Working Life Certificate (WLC), helps unemployed immigrants to find employment and strengthen their belief of their vocational skills. The study is based on quantitative longitudinal survey data from 174 unemployed immigrants of various origins who participated in the pilot phase of WLC examinations in 2009. Surveys were administered in three waves: before the test, right after it, and three months later. Although it is often argued that the unemployment among immigrants is due either to their lack of skills and cultural differences or to discrimination in recruitment, scholars within social psychology of behavior change argue that the best way of helping people to achieve their goals (e.g. finding employment) is to build up their sense of self-efficacy, alter their outcome expectances in a more positive direction or to help them to construct more detailed action and coping plans. This study aims to shed light on the role of these concepts in immigrants’ labor market integration. The results support the theories of behavior change moderately. Having positive expectances regarding the outcomes of various job search behaviors was found to predict employment in the future. Together with action and coping planning it also predicted increase in job search behavior. The intervention, WLC, was able to affect participants’ self-efficacy, but contrary to expectations, self-efficacy was found not to be related to either job search behavior or future labor market status. Also, perceived discrimination did not explain problems in finding employment, but hints of subtle or structural discrimination were found. Adoption of Finnish work culture together with strong family culture was found to predict future employment. Hence, in this thesis I argue that awarding people diplomas should be preferred in immigrant integration training as it strengthens people’s sense of self-efficacy. Instead of teaching new information, more attention should be directed at changing people’s outcome expectances in a more positive direction and helping them to construct detailed plans on how to achieve their goals.

Arrested Drunk Drivers : Trends, social background, recidivism and mortality

The aim of this study was to examine the trends, incidence and recidivism of drunken driving during a 20-year period (1988 - 2007) using the data on all suspected drunken driving in this period. Furthermore, the association between social background and drunken driving, and the mortality of drunk drivers were studied by using administrative register data provided by Statistics Finland. The study was completely register-based. In 1989 - 1991, every year 30,000 drivers were suspected of drunken driving, but the number fell to less than 20,000 by 1994, during the economic recession. The changes in the arrest incidence of the youngest age groups were especially pronounced, most of all in the age group of 18 - 19-year olds. Even though the incidence among youth decreased dramatically, their incidence rate was still twice that of the general population aged 15 - 84 years. Drunken driving was associated with a poor social background among youth and working-aged men and women. For example, a low level of education, unemployment, divorce, and parental factors in youth were associated with a higher risk of being arrested for drunken driving. While a low income was related to more drunken driving among working-aged people, the effect among young persons was the opposite. Every third drunk driver got rearrested during a 15-year period, whereas the estimated rearrest rate was 44%. Findings of drugs only or in combination with alcohol increased the risk of rearrest. The highest rearrest rates were seen among drivers who were under the influence of amphetamines or cannabis. Also male gender, young age, high blood alcohol concentration, and arrest during weekdays and in the daytime predicted rearrest. When compared to the general population, arrested drunk drivers had significant excess mortality. The greatest relative differences were seen in alcohol-related causes of death (including alcohol diseases and alcohol poisoning), accidents, suicides and violence. Also mortality due to other than alcohol-related diseases was elevated among drunk drivers. Drunken driving was associated with multiple factors linked to traffic safety, health and social problems. Social marginalization may expose a person to harmful use of alcohol and drunken driving, and the associations are seen already among the youth. Recidivism is common among drunk drivers, and driving under the influence of illicit and/or medicinal drugs is likely to indicate worse substance abuse problems, judging from the high rearrest rates. High alcohol-related mortality in this population shows that drunken driving is clearly an indicator of alcohol abuse. More effective measures of preventing alcohol-related harms are needed, than merely preventing convicted drunk drivers from driving again.

Elämänmuutoksen, jännityksen ja asiantuntijuuden representointi Veikkaus Oy:n mainonnassa vuosina 1970— 2006

Aim of this master's thesis paper for consumer economics, is to research gambling advertisements in Finland over a period of 35 years, from 1970 to 2006. Veikkaus Oy (later Veikkaus), was founded in 1940, as one of the three licensed gambling organizations in Finland. Material for the current research comprised 1494 advertisements published by Veikkaus in newspapers and magazines at that time. Veikkaus has the exclusive licence to organize lotto games, sport games, instant games and other draw games in Finland. The other two operators, The Finnish Slot Machine Association RAY and Fintoto (on-track horse betting), were not included in the current analysis. This study has been completed according to research contract and grand by the Finnish Foundation for Gaming Research (Pelitoiminnan tutkimussäätiö). In general, advertisements reflect surrounding culture and time, and their message is built on stratified meanings, symbols and codes. Advertising draws the viewer's attention, introduces the advertised subject, and finally, affects the individual's consumption habits. However, advertisements not only work on individual level, but also influence public perception of the advertised product. Firstly, in order to assess gambling as a phenomenon, this paper discusses gambling as consumer behaviour, and also reviews history of gambling in Finland. Winning is a major feature of gambling, and dreaming about positive change of life is a centre of most gambling ads. However, perceived excitement through risk of losing can also be featured in gambling ads. Secondly, this study utilizes Veikkaus’ large advertising archives, were advertising data is analyzed by content analysis and the semiotic analysis. Two methods have been employed to support analyzing outcome in a synergistic way. Content analysis helps to achieve accuracy and comprehensiveness. Semiotic analysis allows deeper and more sensitive analysis to emerged findings and occurrences. It is important to understand the advertised product, as advertising is bound to the culture and time. Hence, to analyze advertising, it is important to understand the environment where the ads appear. Content analysis of Veikkaus data discovered the main gambling and principal advertisement style for each.period. Interestingly, nearly half of Veikkaus’ advertisements promoted topic other than “just winning the bet”. Games of change, like Lotto, typically advertised indirectly represented dreams about winning. In the category of skill gambling, features were represented as investment, and the excitement of sporting expertise was emphasized. In addition, there were a number of gambling ads that emphasize social responsibility of Veikkaus as a government guided organization. Semiotic methods were employed to further elaborate on findings of content analysis. Dreaming in the advertisements was represented by the product of symbols, (e.g. cars and homes) that were found to have significance connection with each other. Thus, advertising represents change of life obtained by the winning. Interestingly, gambling ads promoting jackpots were often representing religious symbolisms. Ads promoting social responsibility were found to be the most common during economical depression of the 90’s. Deeper analysis showed that at that time, advertisements frequently represented depression-related meanings, such as unemployment and bank loans. Skill gaming ads were often represented by sports expertise – late 90’s, their number started sky rocketing, and continued increasing until 2006 (when this study ended). One may conclude that sport betting draws its meanings from the relevant consumer culture, and from the rules and features of the betted sport.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.