Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?

Exchange rate movements affect exports in two ways -- its depreciation and its variability (risk). A depreciation raises exports, but the associated exchange rate risk could offset that positive effect. The present paper investigates the net effect for eight Asian countries using a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time varying correlation and exchange rate risk. Depreciation encourages exports, as expected, for most countries, but its contribution to export growth is weak. Exchange rate risk contributes to export growth in Malaysia and the Philippines, leading to positive net effects. Exchange rate risk generates a negative effect for six of the countries, resulting in a negative net effect in Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and a zero net effect in Korea and Thailand. Since the negative effect of exchange rate risk may offset, or even dominate, positive contributions from depreciation, policy makers need to reduce exchange rate fluctuation along with and possibly before efforts to depreciate the currency.

Introduction to disaster epidemiology for public health personnel

There has been a renewed interest in disaster epidemiology after the World Trade Center and Pentagon terrorist attacks of 2001, the devastation of Hurricane Katrina and the overwhelming loss of life that resulted from the tsunami that originated in the Indian Ocean and struck Indonesia and other adjacent countries on December 26, 2004. Institutions that have accepted the challenge of training the next generation of public health professionals as well as to continue the education of the dedicated professionals already serving in public health fields have a responsibility to train practitioners in the basic principles of disaster epidemiology as well as in practical applications of these principles. This culminating experience project involved developing an on-line course complete with the background information as well as relevant case studies that can be used as a curriculum for an introductory course in disaster epidemiology. ^