Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital: predictive value of patient and process characteristics.

To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence. Alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43%for treatment adherence and 28%for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score < 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow to identify subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

PERSONAL(ONTO) : Personalizing the Learning Process in Virtual Environments by means of Adaptive Formative Itineraries based on Reusable Learning Objects and Ontologies TIN2006-15107-C02

Personalization in e-learning allows the adaptation of contents, learning strategiesand educational resources to the competencies, previous knowledge or preferences of the student. This project takes a multidisciplinary perspective for devising standards-based personalization capabilities into virtual e-learning environments, focusing on the conceptof adaptive learning itinerary, using reusable learning objects as the basis of the system and using ontologies and semantic web technologies.

Cooperation in centralised CATI Household Panel Surveys : A Contact-based Multilevel Analysis to Examine Interviewer, Respondent, and Fieldwork Process Effects

In this research, we analyse the contact-specific mean of the final cooperation probability, distinguishing on the one hand between contacts with household reference persons and with other eligible household members, and on the other hand between first and later contacts. Data comes from two Swiss Household Panel surveys. The interviewer-specific variance is higher for first contacts, especially in the case of the reference person. For later contacts with the reference person, the contact-specific variance dominates. This means that interaction effects and situational factors are decisive. The contact number has negative effects on the performance of contacts with the reference person, positive in the case of other persons. Also time elapsed since the previous contact has negative effects in the case of reference persons. The result of the previous contact has strong effects, especially in the case of the reference person. These findings call for a quick completion of the household grid questionnaire, assigning the best interviewers to conducting the first contact. While obtaining refusals has negative effects, obtaining other contact results has only weak effects on the interviewer's subsequent contact outcome. Using the same interviewer for contacts has no positive effects.

Abstracting qualitative information for process supervision

Supervisory systems evolution makes the obtaining of significant information from processes more important in the way that the supervision systems' particular tasks are simplified. So, having signal treatment tools capable of obtaining elaborate information from the process data is important. In this paper, a tool that obtains qualitative data about the trends and oscillation of signals is presented. An application of this tool is presented as well. In this case, the tool, implemented in a computer-aided control systems design (CACSD) environment, is used in order to give to an expert system for fault detection in a laboratory plant

Leishmania amazonensis exhibits phosphatidylserine-dependent procoagulant activity, a process that is counteracted by sandfly saliva

Leishmania parasites expose phosphatidylserine (PS) on their surface, a process that has been associated with regulation of host's immune responses. In this study we demonstrate that PS exposure by metacyclic promastigotes of Leishmania amazonensis favours blood coagulation. L. amazonensis accelerates in vitro coagulation of human plasma. In addition, L. amazonensis supports the assembly of the prothrombinase complex, thus promoting thrombin formation. This process was reversed by annexin V which blocks PS binding sites. During blood meal, Lutzomyia longipalpis sandfly inject saliva in the bite site, which has a series of pharmacologically active compounds that inhibit blood coagulation. Since saliva and parasites are co-injected in the host during natural transmission, we evaluated the anticoagulant properties of sandfly saliva in counteracting the procoagulant activity of L. amazonensis . Lu. longipalpis saliva reverses plasma clotting promoted by promastigotes. It also inhibits thrombin formation by the prothrombinase complex assembled either in phosphatidylcholine (PC)/PS vesicles or in L. amazonensis . Sandfly saliva inhibits factor X activation by the intrinsic tenase complex assembled on PC/PS vesicles and blocks factor Xa catalytic activity. Altogether our results show that metacyclic promastigotes of L. amazonensis are procoagulant due to PS exposure. Notably, this effect is efficiently counteracted by sandfly saliva.

The peri-urban interface and house infestation with Triatoma infestans in the Argentine Chaco: an underreported process?

Peri-urban infestations with triatomine bugs, their sources and their dynamics have rarely been investigated. Here, we corroborated the reported occurrence of Triatoma infestans in a peri-urban area and in neighbouring rural houses in Pampa del Indio, in the Argentine Chaco, and identified its putative sources using spatial analysis and demographic questionnaires. Peri-urban householders reported that 10% of their premises had triatomines, whereas T. infestans was collected by timed manual searches or community-based surveillance in only nine (3%) houses. Trypanosoma cruzi-infected T. infestans and Triatoma sordida were collected indoors only in peri-urban houses and were infected with TcV and TcI, respectively. The triatomines fed on chickens, cats and humans. Peri-urban infestations were most frequent in a squatter settlement and particularly within the recently built mud houses of rural immigrants, with large-sized households, more dogs and cats and more crowding. Several of the observed infestations were most likely associated with passive bug transport from other sources and with active bug dispersal from neighbouring foci. Thus, the households in the squatter settlement were at a greater risk of bug invasion and colonisation. In sum, the incipient process of domestic colonisation and transmission, along with persistent rural-to-urban migratory flows and unplanned urbanisation, indicate the need for active vector surveillance and control actions at the peri-urban interface of the Gran Chaco.

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

Infornut® Process; improves accessibility to diagnosis and nutritional support for the malnourished hospitalized patient; impact on management indicators; two-year assessment.

Introduction: The high prevalence of disease-related hospital malnutrition justifies the need for screening tools and early detection in patients at risk for malnutrition, followed by an assessment targeted towards diagnosis and treatment. At the same time there is clear undercoding of malnutrition diagnoses and the procedures to correct it Objectives: To describe the INFORNUT program/ process and its development as an information system. To quantify performance in its different phases. To cite other tools used as a coding source. To calculate the coding rates for malnutrition diagnoses and related procedures. To show the relationship to Mean Stay, Mortality Rate and Urgent Readmission; as well as to quantify its impact on the hospital Complexity Index and its effect on the justification of Hospitalization Costs. Material and methods: The INFORNUT® process is based on an automated screening program of systematic detection and early identification of malnourished patients on hospital admission, as well as their assessment, diagnoses, documentation and reporting. Of total readmissions with stays longer than three days incurred in 2008 and 2010, we recorded patients who underwent analytical screening with an alert for a medium or high risk of malnutrition, as well as the subgroup of patients in whom we were able to administer the complete INFORNUT® process, generating a report for each.

Markov chain montecarlo method applied to rounding zeros of compositional data: first approach

As stated in Aitchison (1986), a proper study of relative variation in a compositional data set should be based on logratios, and dealing with logratios excludes dealing with zeros. Nevertheless, it is clear that zero observations might be present in real data sets, either because the corresponding part is completelyabsent –essential zeros– or because it is below detection limit –rounded zeros. Because the second kind of zeros is usually understood as “a trace too small to measure”, it seems reasonable to replace them by a suitable small value, and this has been the traditional approach. As stated, e.g. by Tauber (1999) and byMartín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000), the principal problem in compositional data analysis is related to rounded zeros. One should be careful to use a replacement strategy that does not seriously distort the general structure of the data. In particular, the covariance structure of the involvedparts –and thus the metric properties– should be preserved, as otherwise further analysis on subpopulations could be misleading. Following this point of view, a non-parametric imputation method isintroduced in Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000). This method is analyzed in depth by Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2003) where it is shown that thetheoretical drawbacks of the additive zero replacement method proposed in Aitchison (1986) can be overcome using a new multiplicative approach on the non-zero parts of a composition. The new approachhas reasonable properties from a compositional point of view. In particular, it is “natural” in the sense thatit recovers the “true” composition if replacement values are identical to the missing values, and it is coherent with the basic operations on the simplex. This coherence implies that the covariance structure of subcompositions with no zeros is preserved. As a generalization of the multiplicative replacement, in thesame paper a substitution method for missing values on compositional data sets is introduced

Toxocara canis and the allergic process

The protective effect of infectious agents against allergic reactions has been thoroughly investigated. Current studies have demonstrated the ability of some helminths to modulate the immune response of infected hosts. The objective of the present study was to investigate the relationship between Toxocara canis infection and the development of an allergic response in mice immunised with ovalbumin (OVA). We determined the total and differential blood and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid cells using BALB/c mice as a model. To this end, the levels of interleukin (IL)-4, IL-5 and IL-10 and anti-OVA-IgE were measured using an ELISA. The inflammatory process in the lungs was observed using histology slides stained with haematoxylin and eosin. The results showed an increase in the total number of leukocytes and eosinophils in the blood of infected and immunised animals at 18 days after infection. We observed a slight lymphocytic inflammatory infiltrate in the portal space in all infected mice. Anti-OVA-IgE levels were detected in smaller proportions in the plasma of immunised and infected mice compared with mice that were only infected. Therefore, we concluded that T. canis potentiates inflammation in the lungs in response to OVA, although anti-OVA-IgE levels suggest a potential reduction of the inflammatory process through this mechanism.

The succession process at social enterprises in Brazil

This research was based on a study of social enterprises in Brazil, to find out if and how these organizations plan and manage the succession process for their senior positions. The study investigated the subset of the associations dedicated to collectively producing goods and services, because they are formally set up and aimed at speeding up the dynamism of local development. The empirical research consisted of two stages. The first was a survey covering a sample of 378 organizations, to find out which of those had already undergone or were undergoing a succession process. The second interviewed the main manager of 32 organizations, to obtain a description of their succession experience. In this stage, the research aimed to analyze how the Individual, Organization and Environment dimensions interact to configure the succession process, identifying which factors of each of these dimensions can facilitate or limit this process. The following guiding elements were taken as the analytical basis: Individual dimension - leadership roles, skill and styles; Organization dimension - structure, planning, advisory boards, communication (transparency), control and evaluation; and Environment dimension - influence of the stakeholders (community, suppliers, clients, and business partners) on the succession process. The results indicated that succession in the researched associations is in the construction stage: it adapts to the requirements of current circumstances but is evidently in need of improvement in order for more effective planning and shared management of the process to be achieved.