The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

Elucidating the internal structure of psychophysical timing performance in the sub-second and second range by utilizing confirmatory factor analysis

The most influential theoretical account in time psychophysics assumes the existence of a unitary internal clock based on neural counting. The distinct timing hypothesis, on the other hand, suggests an automatic timing mechanism for processing of durations in the sub-second range and a cognitively controlled timing mechanism for processing of durations in the range of seconds. Although several psychophysical approaches can be applied for identifying the internal structure of interval timing in the second and sub-second range, the existing data provide a puzzling picture of rather inconsistent results. In the present chapter, we introduce confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to further elucidate the internal structure of interval timing performance in the sub-second and second range. More specifically, we investigated whether CFA would rather support the notion of a unitary timing mechanism or of distinct timing mechanisms underlying interval timing in the sub-second and second range, respectively. The assumption of two distinct timing mechanisms which are completely independent of each other was not supported by our data. The model assuming a unitary timing mechanism underlying interval timing in both the sub-second and second range fitted the empirical data much better. Eventually, we also tested a third model assuming two distinct, but functionally related mechanisms. The correlation between the two latent variables representing the hypothesized timing mechanisms was rather high and comparison of fit indices indicated that the assumption of two associated timing mechanisms described the observed data better than only one latent variable. Models are discussed in the light of the existing psychophysical and neurophysiological data.

Career adaptivity, adaptability, and adapting: A conceptual and empirical investigation

The literature on career adaptation is vast and based on a range of different measurement approaches. The present paper aims to explore how different operationalizations of career adaptability in terms of concern, control, curiosity, and confidence are related from a conceptual and empirical standpoint. Based on a cross-sectional analysis with 1260 German university students, we established that the adaptability resources of concern, control, curiosity, and confidence are significantly related to, but empirically distinct from, measures representing adapting in terms of career planning, career decision-making difficulties, career exploration, and occupational self-efficacy. In a follow-up survey six months later, we found that the career adaptability dimensions partially mediated the effects of adaptivity (i.e., core self-evaluations and proactivity) on planning, decision-making difficulties, exploration, and self-efficacy. Interestingly, in both analyses, there was no clear match between adaptability resources and theoretically corresponding aspects of career adapting in terms of behaviors, beliefs, and barriers. The results suggest that psychological career resources in terms of concern, control, curiosity, and confidence partially mediate the effects of more context-general, trait-like adaptivity on different career-specific behavioral forms of adapting.

General distress, hopelessness—suicidal ideation and worrying in adolescence: Concurrent and predictive validity of a symptom-level bifactor model for clinical diagnoses

BACKGROUND: Clinical disorders often share common symptoms and aetiological factors. Bifactor models acknowledge the role of an underlying general distress component and more specific sub-domains of psychopathology which specify the unique components of disorders over and above a general factor. METHODS: A bifactor model jointly calibrated data on subjective distress from The Mood and Feelings Questionnaire and the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale. The bifactor model encompassed a general distress factor, and specific factors for (a) hopelessness-suicidal ideation, (b) generalised worrying and (c) restlessness-fatigue at age 14 which were related to lifetime clinical diagnoses established by interviews at ages 14 (concurrent validity) and current diagnoses at 17 years (predictive validity) in a British population sample of 1159 adolescents. RESULTS: Diagnostic interviews confirmed the validity of a symptom-level bifactor model. The underlying general distress factor was a powerful but non-specific predictor of affective, anxiety and behaviour disorders. The specific factors for hopelessness-suicidal ideation and generalised worrying contributed to predictive specificity. Hopelessness-suicidal ideation predicted concurrent and future affective disorder; generalised worrying predicted concurrent and future anxiety, specifically concurrent generalised anxiety disorders. Generalised worrying was negatively associated with behaviour disorders. LIMITATIONS: The analyses of gender differences and the prediction of specific disorders was limited due to a low frequency of disorders other than depression. CONCLUSIONS: The bifactor model was able to differentiate concurrent and predict future clinical diagnoses. This can inform the development of targeted as well as non-specific interventions for prevention and treatment of different disorders.

Continental-Scale Footprint of Balancing and Positive Selection in a Small Rodent (Microtus arvalis)

Genetic adaptation to different environmental conditions is expected to lead to large differences between populations at selected loci, thus providing a signature of positive selection. Whereas balancing selection can maintain polymorphisms over long evolutionary periods and even geographic scale, thus leads to low levels of divergence between populations at selected loci. However, little is known about the relative importance of these two selective forces in shaping genomic diversity, partly due to difficulties in recognizing balancing selection in species showing low levels of differentiation. Here we address this problem by studying genomic diversity in the European common vole (Microtus arvalis) presenting high levels of differentiation between populations (average FST = 0.31). We studied 3,839 Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) markers genotyped in 444 individuals from 21 populations distributed across the European continent and hence over different environmental conditions. Our statistical approach to detect markers under selection is based on a Bayesian method specifically developed for AFLP markers, which treats AFLPs as a nearly codominant marker system, and therefore has increased power to detect selection. The high number of screened populations allowed us to detect the signature of balancing selection across a large geographic area. We detected 33 markers potentially under balancing selection, hence strong evidence of stabilizing selection in 21 populations across Europe. However, our analyses identified four-times more markers (138) being under positive selection, and geographical patterns suggest that some of these markers are probably associated with alpine regions, which seem to have environmental conditions that favour adaptation. We conclude that despite favourable conditions in this study for the detection of balancing selection, this evolutionary force seems to play a relatively minor role in shaping the genomic diversity of the common vole, which is more influenced by positive selection and neutral processes like drift and demographic history.

Solution of the relativistic Schrödinger equation for the δ ′ -Function potential in one dimension using cutoff regularization

We study the relativistic version of the Schrödinger equation for a point particle in one dimension with the potential of the first derivative of the delta function. The momentum cutoff regularization is used to study the bound state and scattering states. The initial calculations show that the reciprocal of the bare coupling constant is ultraviolet divergent, and the resultant expression cannot be renormalized in the usual sense, where the divergent terms can just be omitted. Therefore, a general procedure has been developed to derive different physical properties of the system. The procedure is used first in the nonrelativistic case for the purpose of clarification and comparisons. For the relativistic case, the results show that this system behaves exactly like the delta function potential, which means that this system also shares features with quantum filed theories, like being asymptotically free. In addition, in the massless limit, it undergoes dimensional transmutation, and it possesses an infrared conformal fixed point. The comparison of the solution with the relativistic delta function potential solution shows evidence of universality.

Hyperthermia-related clinical trials on cancer treatment within the ClinicalTrials.gov registry

PURPOSE Hyperthermia has been shown to improve the effectiveness of chemotherapy and radiotherapy in the treatment of cancer. This paper summarises all recent clinical trials registered in the ClinicalTrials.gov registry. MATERIALS AND METHODS The records of 175,538 clinical trials registered at ClinicalTrials.gov were downloaded on 29 September 2014 and a database was established. We searched this database for hyperthermia or equivalent words. RESULTS A total of 109 trials were identified in which hyperthermia was part of the treatment regimen. Of these, 49 trials (45%) had hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy after cytoreductive surgery (HIPEC) as the primary intervention, and 14 other trials (13%) were also testing some form of intraperitoneal hyperthermic chemoperfusion. Seven trials (6%) were testing perfusion attempts to other locations (thoracic/pleural n = 4, limb n = 2, hepatic n = 1). Sixteen trials (15%) were testing regional hyperthermia, 13 trials (12%) whole body hyperthermia, seven trials (6%) superficial hyperthermia and two trials (2%) interstitial hyperthermia. One remaining trial tested laser hyperthermia. CONCLUSIONS In contrast to the general opinion, this analysis shows continuous interest and ongoing clinical research in the field of hyperthermia. Interestingly, the majority of trials focused on some form of intraperitoneal hyperthermic chemoperfusion. Despite the high number of active clinical studies, HIPEC is a topic with limited attention at the annual meetings of the European Society for Hyperthermic Oncology and the Society of Thermal Medicine. The registration of on-going clinical trials is of paramount importance for the achievement of a comprehensive overview of available clinical research activities involving hyperthermia.

The Swiss Canine Cancer Registry: a retrospective study on the occurrence of tumours in dogs in Switzerland from 1955 to 2008

Diagnostic records are a key feature of any cancer epidemiology, prevention or control strategy for man and animals. Therefore, the information stored in human and animal cancer registries is essential for undertaking comparative epidemiological, pathogenic and therapeutic research. This study presents the Swiss Canine Cancer Registry, containing case data compiled between 1955 and 2008. The data consist of pathology diagnostic records issued by three veterinary diagnostic laboratories in Switzerland. The tumours were classified according to the guidelines of the International Classification of Oncology for Humans on the basis of tumour type, malignancy and body location. The dogs were classified according to breed, age, sex, neuter status and place of residence. The diagnostic data were correlated with data on the Swiss general dog population and the incidence of cancer in dogs was thus investigated. A total of 67,943 tumours were diagnosed in 121,963 dogs and 47.07% of these were malignant. The most common tumour location was the skin (37.05%), followed by mammary glands (23.55%) and soft tissue (13.66%). The most common tumour diagnoses were epithelial (38.45%), mesenchymal (35.10%) and lymphoid tumours (13.23%). The results are compared with data in other canine registries and similarities in tumour distribution and incidence are noted. It is hoped that this study will mark the beginning of continuous registration of dog tumours in Switzerland, which, in turn, will serve as a reference for research in the fields of animal and human oncology.

Materials properties from electron density distributions: Molecular magnetism and linear optical properties

The general goal of this thesis is correlating observable properties of organic and metal-organic materials with their ground-state electron density distribution. In a long-term view, we expect to develop empirical or semi-empirical approaches to predict materials properties from the electron density of their building blocks, thus allowing to rationally engineering molecular materials from their constituent subunits, such as their functional groups. In particular, we have focused on linear optical properties of naturally occurring amino acids and their organic and metal-organic derivatives, and on magnetic properties of metal-organic frameworks. For analysing the optical properties and the magnetic behaviour of the molecular or sub-molecular building blocks in materials, we mostly used the more traditional QTAIM partitioning scheme of the molecular or crystalline electron densities, however, we have also investigated a new approach, namely, X-ray Constrained Extremely Localized Molecular Orbitals (XC-ELMO), that can be used in future to extracted the electron densities of crystal subunits. With the purpose of rationally engineering linear optical materials, we have calculated atomic and functional group polarizabilities of amino acid molecules, their hydrogen-bonded aggregates and their metal-organic frameworks. This has enabled the identification of the most efficient functional groups, able to build-up larger electric susceptibilities in crystals, as well as the quantification of the role played by intermolecular interactions and coordinative bonds on modifying the polarizability of the isolated building blocks. Furthermore, we analysed the dependence of the polarizabilities on the one-electron basis set and the many-electron Hamiltonian. This is useful for selecting the most efficient level of theory to estimate susceptibilities of molecular-based materials. With the purpose of rationally design molecular magnetic materials, we have investigated the electron density distributions and the magnetism of two copper(II) pyrazine nitrate metal-organic polymers. High-resolution X-ray diffraction and DFT calculations were used to characterize the magnetic exchange pathways and to establish relationships between the electron densities and the exchange-coupling constants. Moreover, molecular orbital and spin-density analyses were employed to understand the role of different magnetic exchange mechanisms in determining the bulk magnetic behaviour of these materials. As anticipated, we have finally investigated a modified version of the X-ray constrained wavefunction technique, XC-ELMOs, that is not only a useful tool for determination and analysis of experimental electron densities, but also enables one to derive transferable molecular orbitals strictly localized on atoms, bonds or functional groups. In future, we expect to use XC-ELMOs to predict materials properties of large systems, currently challenging to calculate from first-principles, such as macromolecules or polymers. Here, we point out advantages, needs and pitfalls of the technique. This work fulfils, at least partially, the prerequisites to understand materials properties of organic and metal-organic materials from the perspective of the electron density distribution of their building blocks. Empirical or semi-empirical evaluation of optical or magnetic properties from a preconceived assembling of building blocks could be extremely important for rationally design new materials, a field where accurate but expensive first-principles calculations are generally not used. This research could impact the community in the fields of crystal engineering, supramolecular chemistry and, of course, electron density analysis.

How comparable are parallel corpora? Measuring the distribution of general vocabulary and connectives

In this paper, we question the homogeneity of a large parallel corpus by measuring the similarity between various sub-parts. We compare results obtained using a general measure of lexical similarity based on χ2 and by counting the number of discourse connectives. We argue that discourse connectives provide a more sensitive measure, revealing differences that are not visible with the general measure. We also provide evidence for the existence of specific characteristics defining translated texts as opposed to non-translated ones, due to a universal tendency for explicitation.

Patient outcomes after laminotomy, hemilaminectomy, laminectomy and laminectomy with instrumented fusion for spinal canal stenosis: a propensity score-based study from the Spine Tango registry.

PURPOSE To compare patient outcomes and complication rates after different decompression techniques or instrumented fusion (IF) in lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). METHODS The multicentre study was based on Spine Tango data. Inclusion criteria were LSS with a posterior decompression and pre- and postoperative COMI assessment between 3 and 24 months. 1,176 cases were assigned to four groups: (1) laminotomy (n = 642), (2) hemilaminectomy (n = 196), (3) laminectomy (n = 230) and (4) laminectomy combined with an IF (n = 108). Clinical outcomes were achievement of minimum relevant change in COMI back and leg pain and COMI score (2.2 points), surgical and general complications, measures taken due to complications, and reintervention on the index level based on patient information. The inverse propensity score weighting method was used for adjustment. RESULTS Laminotomy, hemilaminectomy and laminectomy were significantly less beneficial than laminectomy in combination with IF regarding leg pain (ORs with 95% CI 0.52, 0.34-0.81; 0.25, 0.15-0.41; 0.44, 0.27-0.72, respectively) and COMI score improvement (ORs with 95% CI 0.51, 0.33-0.81; 0.30, 0.18-0.51; 0.48, 0.29-0.79, respectively). However, the sole decompressions caused significantly fewer surgical (ORs with 95% CI 0.42, 0.26-0.69; 0.33, 0.17-0.63; 0.39, 0.21-0.71, respectively) and general complications (ORs with 95% CI 0.11, 0.04-0.29; 0.03, 0.003-0.41; 0.25, 0.09-0.71, respectively) than laminectomy in combination with IF. Accordingly, the likelihood of required measures was also significantly lower after laminotomy (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.17-0.46), hemilaminectomy (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.15-0.53) and after laminectomy (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.22-0.68) in comparison with laminectomy with IF. The likelihood of a reintervention was not significantly different between the treatment groups. DISCUSSION As already demonstrated in the literature, decompression in patients with LSS is a very effective treatment. Despite better patient outcomes after laminectomy in combination with IF, caution is advised due to higher rates of surgical and general complications and consequent required measures. Based on the current study, laminotomy or laminectomy, rather than hemilaminectomy, is recommendable for minimum relevant pain relief.

Trends in life expectancy of HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral therapy across the globe: comparisons with general population.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW Improved virological and immunological outcomes and reduced toxicity of antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) raise the hope that life expectancy of HIV-positive persons on ART will approach that of the general population. We systematically review the literature and summarize published estimates of life expectancy of HIV-positive populations on ART. We compare their life expectancy with the life expectancy of the general or, in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV-negative populations, by time period and gender. RECENT FINDINGS Ten relevant studies were published from 2006 to 2015. Three studies were from Canada, two from European countries, three from sub-Saharan Africa and two were multicountry studies. Life expectancy increased over time in all studies and regions. Expressed as the percentage of life expectancy in the HIV-negative or general population, estimated life expectancy at age 20 years in HIV-positive people on ART ranged from 60.3% (95% CI 58.0-62.6%) in Rwanda (2008-2011) to 89.1% (95% CI 84.7-93.6%) in Canada (2008-2012). The percentage of life expectancy in the HIV-negative or general population achieved was higher in HIV-positive women than in HIV-positive men in all countries, except for Canada wherein the opposite was the case. SUMMARY Life expectancy in HIV-positive people on ART has improved worldwide in recent years, but important gaps remain compared with the general and HIV-negative population, and between regions and genders.

Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Regime Switching and Temporal Conditional Default Correlation in Credit Default Swap Valuation: The Market liquidity effect

In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

The Optimal Capital Structure of Banks: Balancing Deposit Insurance, Capital Requirements and Tax-Advantaged Debt

The capital structure and regulation of financial intermediaries is an important topic for practitioners, regulators and academic researchers. In general, theory predicts that firms choose their capital structures by balancing the benefits of debt (e.g., tax and agency benefits) against its costs (e.g., bankruptcy costs). However, when traditional corporate finance models have been applied to insured financial institutions, the results have generally predicted corner solutions (all equity or all debt) to the capital structure problem. This paper studies the impact and interaction of deposit insurance, capital requirements and tax benefits on a bankÇs choice of optimal capital structure. Using a contingent claims model to value the firm and its associated claims, we find that there exists an interior optimal capital ratio in the presence of deposit insurance, taxes and a minimum fixed capital standard. Banks voluntarily choose to maintain capital in excess of the minimum required in order to balance the risks of insolvency (especially the loss of future tax benefits) against the benefits of additional debt. Because we derive a closed- form solution, our model provides useful insights on several current policy debates including revisions to the regulatory framework for GSEs, tax policy in general and the tax exemption for credit unions.

Bayesian models for the analysis of genetic structure when populations are correlated

Motivation: Population allele frequencies are correlated when populations have a shared history or when they exchange genes. Unfortunately, most models for allele frequency and inference about population structure ignore this correlation. Recent analytical results show that among populations, correlations can be very high, which could affect estimates of population genetic structure. In this study, we propose a mixture beta model to characterize the allele frequency distribution among populations. This formulation incorporates the correlation among populations as well as extending the model to data with different clusters of populations. Results: Using simulated data, we show that in general, the mixture model provides a good approximation of the among-population allele frequency distribution and a good estimate of correlation among populations. Results from fitting the mixture model to a dataset of genotypes at 377 autosomal microsatellite loci from human populations indicate high correlation among populations, which may not be appropriate to neglect. Traditional measures of population structure tend to over-estimate the amount of genetic differentiation when correlation is neglected. Inference is performed in a Bayesian framework.