Monetary policy strategies, financial institutions and financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa: an overview

Three polar types of monetary architecture are identified together with the institutional and market infrastructure required for each type and the kinds of monetary policy feasible in each case: a ‘basic’ architecture where there is little or no financial system as such but an elementary central bank which is able to fix the exchange rate, as a substitute for a proper monetary policy; a ‘modern’ monetary architecture with developed banks, financial markets and central bank where policy choices include types of inflation targeting; and an ‘intermediate’ monetary architecture where less market-based monetary policies involving less discretion are feasible. A range of data is used to locate the various MENA countries with respect to these polar types. Five countries (Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) are identified as those with the least developed monetary architecture, while Bahrain and Jordan are identified as the group at the other end of the spectrum, reaching beyond the intermediate polar type in some dimensions but not others. The countries in between vary on different dimensions but all lie between basic and intermediate architectures. The key general findings are that the MENA countries are both less differentiated and less ‘developed’ than might have been expected. The paper ends by calling for research on the costs and benefits of different types of monetary architecture.

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

Conditioned polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers allow to discriminate for the ability of gut-derived microorganisms to modulate permeability and antigen-induced basophil degranulation.

BACKGROUND: Food allergy is a common allergic disorder--especially in early childhood. The avoidance of the allergenic food is the only available method to prevent further reactions in sensitized patients. A better understanding of the immunologic mechanisms involved in this reaction would help to develop therapeutic approaches applicable to the prevention of food allergy. OBJECTIVE: To establish a multi-cell in vitro model of sensitized intestinal epithelium that mimics the intestinal epithelial barrier to study the capacity of probiotic microorganisms to modulate permeability, translocation and immunoreactivity of ovalbumin (OVA) used as a model antigen. METHODS: Polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers were conditioned by basolateral basophils and used to examine apical to basolateral transport of OVA by ELISA. Activation of basophils with translocated OVA was measured by beta-hexosaminidase release assay. This experimental setting was used to assess how microorganisms added apically affected these parameters. Basolateral secretion of cytokine/chemokines by polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers was analysed by ELISA. RESULTS: Basophils loaded with OVA-specific IgE responded to OVA in a dose-dependent manner. OVA transported across polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers was found to trigger basolateral basophil activation. Microorganisms including lactobacilli and Escherichia coli increased transepithelial electrical resistance while promoting OVA passage capable to trigger basophil activation. Non-inflammatory levels of IL-8 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin were produced basolaterally by Caco-2 cells exposed to microorganisms. CONCLUSION: The complex model designed in here is adequate to learn about the consequence of the interaction between microorganisms and epithelial cells vis-a-vis the barrier function and antigen translocation, two parameters essential to mucosal homeostasis. It can further serve as a direct tool to search for microorganisms with anti-allergic and anti-inflammatory properties.

Young and Old - Teacher's Guide: Promoting a Positive Attitude to Ageing and Older People

Young and Old has been specifically designed for use in the context of the new Social, Personal and Health Education (SPHE) curriculum. It covers seven different themes on ageing and older people at each of the four levels in primary school and includes different strategies for active learning which are used to explore facts, figures, and attitudes. There are also exercises designed to stimulate classroom discussion and activities to encourage contact and communication between children and older people Download the Report here

Is (1→3)-β-D-glucan the missing link from bedside assessment to pre-emptive therapy of invasive candidiasis?

ABSTRACT: Invasive candidiasis is a frequent life-threatening complication in critically ill patients. Early diagnosis followed by prompt treatment aimed at improving outcome by minimizing unnecessary antifungal use remains a major challenge in the ICU setting. Timely patient selection thus plays a key role for clinically efficient and cost-effective management. Approaches combining clinical risk factors and Candida colonization data have improved our ability to identify such patients early. While the negative predictive value of scores and predicting rules is up to 95 to 99%, the positive predictive value is much lower, ranging between 10 and 60%. Accordingly, if a positive score or rule is used to guide the start of antifungal therapy, many patients may be treated unnecessarily. Candida biomarkers display higher positive predictive values; however, they lack sensitivity and are thus not able to identify all cases of invasive candidiasis. The (1→3)-β-D-glucan (BG) assay, a panfungal antigen test, is recommended as a complementary tool for the diagnosis of invasive mycoses in high-risk hemato-oncological patients. Its role in the more heterogeneous ICU population remains to be defined. More efficient clinical selection strategies combined with performant laboratory tools are needed in order to treat the right patients at the right time by keeping costs of screening and therapy as low as possible. The new approach proposed by Posteraro and colleagues in the previous issue of Critical Care meets these requirements. A single positive BG value in medical patients admitted to the ICU with sepsis and expected to stay for more than 5 days preceded the documentation of candidemia by 1 to 3 days with an unprecedented diagnostic accuracy. Applying this one-point fungal screening on a selected subset of ICU patients with an estimated 15 to 20% risk of developing candidemia is an appealing and potentially cost-effective approach. If confirmed by multicenter investigations, and extended to surgical patients at high risk of invasive candidiasis after abdominal surgery, this Bayesian-based risk stratification approach aimed at maximizing clinical efficiency by minimizing health care resource utilization may substantially simplify the management of critically ill patients at risk of invasive candidiasis.

Loss to follow-up of HIV-infected women after delivery : The Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION: HIV-infected pregnant women are very likely to engage in HIV medical care to prevent transmission of HIV to their newborn. After delivery, however, childcare and competing commitments might lead to disengagement from HIV care. The aim of this study was to quantify loss to follow-up (LTFU) from HIV care after delivery and to identify risk factors for LTFU. METHODS: We used data on 719 pregnancies within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from 1996 to 2012 and with information on follow-up visits available. Two LTFU events were defined: no clinical visit for >180 days and no visit for >360 days in the year after delivery. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for a LTFU event after delivery. RESULTS: Median maternal age at delivery was 32 years (IQR 28-36), 357 (49%) women were black, 280 (39%) white, 56 (8%) Asian and 4% other ethnicities. One hundred and seven (15%) women reported any history of IDU. The majority (524, 73%) of women received their HIV diagnosis before pregnancy, most of those (413, 79%) had lived with diagnosed HIV longer than three years and two-thirds (342, 65%) were already on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at time of conception. Of the 181 women diagnosed during pregnancy by a screening test, 80 (44%) were diagnosed in the first trimester, 67 (37%) in the second and 34 (19%) in the third trimester. Of 357 (69%) women who had been seen in HIV medical care during three months before conception, 93% achieved an undetectable HIV viral load (VL) at delivery. Of 62 (12%) women with the last medical visit more than six months before conception, only 72% achieved an undetectable VL (p=0.001). Overall, 247 (34%) women were LTFU over 180 days in the year after delivery and 86 (12%) women were LTFU over 360 days with 43 (50%) of those women returning. Being LTFU for 180 days was significantly associated with history of intravenous drug use (aOR 1.73, 95% CI 1.09-2.77, p=0.021) and not achieving an undetectable VL at delivery (aOR 1.79, 95% CI 1.03-3.11, p=0.040) after adjusting for maternal age, ethnicity, time of HIV diagnosis and being on ART at conception. CONCLUSIONS: Women with a history of IDU and women with a detectable VL at delivery were more likely to be LTFU after delivery. This is of concern regarding their own health, as well as risk for sexual partners and subsequent pregnancies. Further strategies should be developed to enhance retention in medical care beyond pregnancy.

Adaptive intelligent agent approach to guide the web navigation on the PLAN-G distance learning platform

Hypermedia systems based on the Web for open distance education are becoming increasinglypopular as tools for user-driven access learning information. Adaptive hypermedia is a new direction in research within the area of user-adaptive systems, to increase its functionality by making it personalized [Eklu 961. This paper sketches a general agents architecture to include navigationaladaptability and user-friendly processes which would guide and accompany the student during hislher learning on the PLAN-G hypermedia system (New Generation Telematics Platform to Support Open and Distance Learning), with the aid of computer networks and specifically WWW technology [Marz 98-1] [Marz 98-2]. The PLAN-G actual prototype is successfully used with some informatics courses (the current version has no agents yet). The propased multi-agent system, contains two different types of adaptive autonomous software agents: Personal Digital Agents {Interface), to interacl directly with the student when necessary; and Information Agents (Intermediaries), to filtrate and discover information to learn and to adapt navigation space to a specific student

Environnement et capacités cognitives chez le rat : compétition entre les facteurs qui influencent les stratégies spatiales

RESUME Ce travail se propose de discuter des résultats comportementaux observés chez des rats obtenus dans trois paradigmes expérimentaux différents : le bassin de Morris (Morris Water Maze, Morris, 1984) ; la table à trous (Homing Board, Schenk, 1989) et le labyrinthe radial (Radial Arm Maze, Olton et Samuelson, 1976). Les deux premières tâches sont spatiales et permettent un apprentissage de place en environnements contrôlés, et la troisième est une tâche comportementale qui différencie deux habiletés particulières, celle d'élimination (basée sur la mémoire de travail) et celle de sélection (basée sur la mémoire de référence). La discussion des résultats porte sur les stratégies de navigation utilisées par les animaux pour résoudre les tâches et plus précisément sur les facteurs qui peuvent influencer le choix de ces stratégies. Le facteur environnemental (environnement contrôlé) et le facteur cognitif (vieillissement) représentent les variables étudiées ici. C'est ainsi que certaines hypothèses communément acceptées ont été malmenées par nos résultats. Or si l'espace est habituellement supposé homogène (toutes les positions spatiales présentent le même degré de difficulté lors d'un apprentissage en champ ouvert), ce travail établit qu'une position associée -sans contiguïté - à l'un des trois indices visuels situés dans la périphérie de l'environnement est plus difficile à apprendre qu'une position située entre deux des trois indices. Deuxièmement, alors qu'il est admis que l'apprentissage d'une place dans un environnement riche requiert le même type d'information. dans la bassin de Morris (tâche nagée) que sur la table à trous (tâche marchée), nous avons montré que la discrimination spatiale en bassin ne peut être assurée par les trois indices visuels périphériques et nécessite la présence d'au moins un élément supplémentaire. Enfin, l'étude du vieillissement a souvent montré que l'âge réduit les capacités cognitives nécessaires à la navigation spatiale, conduisant à un déficit général des performances d'un animal sénescent, alors que dans notre travail, nous avons trouvé les animaux âgés plus performants et plus efficaces que les adultes dans une tâche particulière de collecte de nourriture. Ces expériences s'inscrivent dans une étude générale qui met à l'épreuve le modèle théorique proposé pax Schenk et Jacobs (2003), selon lequel l'encodage de la carte cognitive (Tolman, 1948 ; O'Keefe et Nadel, 1978) se ferait dans l'hippocampe par l'activité de deux modules complémentaires :d'une part le CA3 - Gyrus Denté pour le traitement d'une trame spatiale basée sur des éléments directionnels et Jou distribués en gradient (bearing map) et d'autre part le CAl - Subiculum pour le traitement des représentations locales basées sur les positions relatives des éléments fixes de l'environnement (sketch map). SUMMARY This work proposes to talk about behavioural results observed in three different experimental paradigms with rats: the Morris Water Maze (Morris, 1984); the Homing Board (Schenk, 1989) and the Radial Arm Maze (Olton and Samuelson, 1976). The two first tasks are spatial ones and allow place learning in controlled environments. The third one is a behavioural task which contrasts two particular skills, the elimination (based on working memory) and the selection one (based on reference memory). The topic of the discussion will be the navigation strategies used by animals to solve the different tasks, and more precisely the factors which can bias this strategies' choice. The environmental (controlled) and the cognitive (aging) factors are the variables studied here. Thus, some hypotheses usually accepted were manhandled by our results. Indeed, if space is habitually homogenously considered (all spatial positions present the same degree of difficulty in an open field learning), this work establishes that an associated position -without being adjacent - to one of the three visual cues localised in the environmental periphery is more difficult to learn than a configurationnel position (situated between two of the three cues). Secondly, if it is received that place learning in a rich environment requires the same information in the Morris water maze (swimming task) that on the Homing board (walking task), we showed that spatial discrimination in the water maze can't be provided by the three peripheral cue cards and needs the presence of a supplementary cue. At last, aging studies often showed that oldness decreases cognitive skills in spatial navigation, leading to a general deficit in performances. But, in our work, we found that senescent rats were more efficient than adult ones in a special food collecting task. These experiments come within the scope of a general study which tests the theoretical model proposed by Jacobs and Schenk (2003), according to which the cognitive map's encoding (Tolman, 1948, O'Keefe and Nadel, 1978) should take place in the hippocampus by two complementary modules, first the DG-CA3 should encode directional and/or gradients references (the bearing map), and secondly the Subiculum-CAl should process locale elements (the sketch map).

Sentinel network for monitoring in vitro susceptibility of Plasmodium falciparum to antimalarial drugs in Colombia: a proof of concept

Drug resistance is one of the principal obstacles blocking worldwide malaria control. In Colombia, malaria remains a major public health concern and drug-resistant parasites have been reported. In vitro drug susceptibility assays are a useful tool for monitoring the emergence and spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum. The present study was conducted as a proof of concept for an antimalarial drug resistance surveillance network based on in vitro susceptibility testing in Colombia. Sentinel laboratories were set up in three malaria endemic areas. The enzyme linked immunosorbent assay-histidine rich protein 2 and schizont maturation methods were used to assess the susceptibility of fresh P. falciparum isolates to six antimalarial drugs. This study demonstrates that an antimalarial drug resistance surveillance network based on in vitro methods is feasible in the field with the participation of a research institute, local health institutions and universities. It could also serve as a model for a regional surveillance network. Preliminary susceptibility results showed widespread chloroquine resistance, which was consistent with previous reports for the Pacific region. However, high susceptibility to dihydroartemisinin and lumefantrine compounds, currently used for treatment in the country, was also reported. The implementation process identified critical points and opportunities for the improvement of network sustainability strategies.

Aspidosperma (Apocynaceae) plant cytotoxicity and activity towards malaria parasites. Part I: Aspidosperma nitidum (Benth) used as a remedy to treat fever and malaria in the Amazon

Infusions of Aspidosperma nitidum (Apocynaceae) wood bark are used to treat fever and malaria in the Amazon Region. Several species of this family are known to possess indole alkaloids and other classes of secondary metabolites, whereas terpenoids, an inositol and the indole alkaloids harmane-3 acid and braznitidumine have been described in A. nitidum . In the present study, extracts from the wood bark, leaves and branches of this species were prepared for assays against malaria parasites and cytotoxicity testing using human hepatoma and normal monkey kidney cells. The wood bark extracts were active against Plasmodium falciparum and showed a low cytotoxicity in vitro, whereas the leaf and branch extracts and the pure alkaloid braznitidumine were inactive. A crude methanol extract was subjected to acid-base fractionation aimed at obtaining alkaloid-rich fractions, which were active at low concentrations against P. falciparum and in mice infected with and sensitive Plasmodium berghei parasites. Our data validate the antimalarial usefulness of A. nitidum wood bark, a remedy that can most likely help to control malaria. However, the molecules responsible for this antimalarial activity have not yet been identified. Considering their high selectivity index, the alkaloid-rich fractions from the plant bark might be useful in the development of new antimalarials.

Influence on screening performance of second reading strategies in two lowvolume programs

BACKGROUND: The European Guidelines specify a minimum of 5,000 screening cases to be read yearly by radiologists carrying out second reading in non-centralized programs. This professional requirement is difficult to reach and/or to implement in regional programs covering a sparse population with a high number of participating radiology units, so that alternative blind double reading strategies must be devised. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect on breast cancer screening performances of two second reading strategies used in non-centralized, low-volume programs. METHODS: Reading performances in two Swiss regional breast cancer screening programs (cantons of Wallis and Vaud), covering female populations, aged 50-69, of about 31'000 and 72'000 inhabitants were computed and compared. Both programs had similar screening regimens and organizations, but differed with respect to second reading. One setting applied a selective strategy whereby only experienced radiologists performed second reading; the other elicited not to restrict second readers on the basis of their individual screening activity. Analysis included some 140,000 mammograms performed between 1999 and 2005. RESULTS: Overall, screening performances improved with increasing total volume of reading, albeit not in a linear fashion. Regardless of setting, radiologists attained a higher level of screening accuracy when performing second rather than first readings, and incident rather than prevalent screening cases. The effect of a selective, small group of second readers appeared to impact favorably on the false-positive rate and other indicators of screening quality. As the learning curve depends on the number of mammograms read, these distinct strategies may bear different outcome in the long run. Implications and practical issues for low-volume programs are discussed.

Social meets molecular: Combining phylogenetic and latent class analyses to understand HIV-1 transmission in Switzerland.

Switzerland has a complex human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic involving several populations. We examined transmission of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) in a national cohort study. Latent class analysis was used to identify socioeconomic and behavioral groups among 6,027 patients enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study between 2000 and 2011. Phylogenetic analysis of sequence data, available for 4,013 patients, was used to identify transmission clusters. Concordance between sociobehavioral groups and transmission clusters was assessed in correlation and multiple correspondence analyses. A total of 2,696 patients were infected with subtype B, 203 with subtype C, 196 with subtype A, and 733 with recombinant subtypes (mainly CRF02_AG and CRF01_AE). Latent class analysis identified 8 patient groups. Most transmission clusters of subtype B were shared between groups of gay men (groups 1-3) or between the heterosexual groups "heterosexual people of lower socioeconomic position" (group 4) and "injection drug users" (group 8). Clusters linking homosexual and heterosexual groups were associated with "older heterosexual and gay people on welfare" (group 5). "Migrant women in heterosexual partnerships" (group 6) and "heterosexual migrants on welfare" (group 7) shared non-B clusters with groups 4 and 5. Combining approaches from social and molecular epidemiology can provide insights into HIV-1 transmission and inform the design of prevention strategies.

When to initiate combined antiretroviral therapy to reduce mortality and AIDS-defining illness in HIV-infected persons in developed countries: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Most clinical guidelines recommend that AIDS-free, HIV-infected persons with CD4 cell counts below 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L initiate combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), but the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated remains a matter of debate. OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated. DESIGN: Prospective observational data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and dynamic marginal structural models were used to compare cART initiation strategies for CD4 thresholds between 0.200 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L. SETTING: HIV clinics in Europe and the Veterans Health Administration system in the United States. PATIENTS: 20, 971 HIV-infected, therapy-naive persons with baseline CD4 cell counts at or above 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L and no previous AIDS-defining illnesses, of whom 8392 had a CD4 cell count that decreased into the range of 0.200 to 0.499 × 10(9) cells/L and were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios and survival proportions for all-cause mortality and a combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. RESULTS: Compared with initiating cART at the CD4 cell count threshold of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L, the mortality hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.22) for the 0.350 threshold and 1.20 (CI, 0.97 to 1.48) for the 0.200 threshold. The corresponding hazard ratios were 1.38 (CI, 1.23 to 1.56) and 1.90 (CI, 1.67 to 2.15), respectively, for the combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. Limitations: CD4 cell count at cART initiation was not randomized. Residual confounding may exist. CONCLUSION: Initiation of cART at a threshold CD4 count of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L increases AIDS-free survival. However, mortality did not vary substantially with the use of CD4 thresholds between 0.300 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L.

lmplementació i avaluació d'un programa dirigit a I'alfabetització de les mares amb infants estrangers en la seva llengua i en català

Teixint Cultures és un projecte de recerca-acció comunitari que intenta promoure des de I'educació d'adults, I'aprenentatge de la llengua catalana a partir dels recursos Iingüístics que les mares d'origen africà tenen en la seva llengua familiar. El programa atén a mares d'origen immigrat amb fills menors de tres anys no escolaritzats al seu càrrec (la majoria de les quals té altres fills en edat escolar que assisteixen a la tarda a la biblioteca per fer els deures escolars). Tot el projecte esta vehiculat a partir dels contes infantils. De fet, intenta recuperar els contes de tradició oral provinents del continent africà per posteriorment elaborar materials educatius bilingües (en català i en les seves llengües) que es puguin utilitzar com a llibres educatius de consulta, tant per les biblioteques públiques com pels centres educatius. El programa es realitza de forma setmanal, al llarg de dues hores, a la biblioteca pública infantil d'en Massagran de Salt. Les mares expliquen contes i llegendes rellevants de la seva infància en la seva llengua i, a partir de diferents activitats de narració, traducció i dramatització de les històries basades en una metodologia de a dual-language D, elaboren textos escrits i narracions orals en català i en la seva llengua. Posteriorment són les mateixes participants les que editen els contes a I'ordinador i elaboren digitalment un llibre de contes bilingüe. Les sessions s'han registrat en àudio i vídeo i hem estudiat el procés d'implementació del programa i les estratègies multilingües utilitzades per les participants, els educadors i voluntaris. Els resultats evidencien el progrés de les dones en I'aprenentatge del català, la modificació de les seves actituds lingüístiques i de la seva autoimatge, així com I ‘impacte positiu del programa a la comunitat pel que fa al reconeixement dels recursos lingüístics i culturals de les minories ètniques.

Development of model observers applied to 3D breast tomosynthesis microcalcifications and masses

The development of model observers for mimicking human detection strategies has followed from symmetric signals in simple noise to increasingly complex backgrounds. In this study we implement different model observers for the complex task of detecting a signal in a 3D image stack. The backgrounds come from real breast tomosynthesis acquisitions and the signals were simulated and reconstructed within the volume. Two different tasks relevant to the early detection of breast cancer were considered: detecting an 8 mm mass and detecting a cluster of microcalcifications. The model observers were calculated using a channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) with dense difference-of-Gaussian channels, and a modified (Partial prewhitening [PPW]) observer which was adapted to realistic signals which are not circularly symmetric. The sustained temporal sensitivity function was used to filter the images before applying the spatial templates. For a frame rate of five frames per second, the only CHO that we calculated performed worse than the humans in a 4-AFC experiment. The other observers were variations of PPW and outperformed human observers in every single case. This initial frame rate was a rather low speed and the temporal filtering did not affect the results compared to a data set with no human temporal effects taken into account. We subsequently investigated two higher speeds at 5, 15 and 30 frames per second. We observed that for large masses, the two types of model observers investigated outperformed the human observers and would be suitable with the appropriate addition of internal noise. However, for microcalcifications both only the PPW observer consistently outperformed the humans. The study demonstrated the possibility of using a model observer which takes into account the temporal effects of scrolling through an image stack while being able to effectively detect a range of mass sizes and distributions.