Bayesian estimation of the spatial Durbin error model with an application to voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election

The potential for spatial dependence in models of voter turnout, although plausible from a theoretical perspective, has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Using recent advances in Bayesian computation, we formulate and estimate the previously unutilized spatial Durbin error model and apply this model to the question of whether spillovers and unobserved spatial dependence in voter turnout matters from an empirical perspective. Formal Bayesian model comparison techniques are employed to compare the normal linear model, the spatially lagged X model (SLX), the spatial Durbin model, and the spatial Durbin error model. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin error model as the appropriate empirical model.

A global perspective on Langmuir turbulence in the ocean surface boundary layer.

The turbulent mixing in thin ocean surface boundary layers (OSBL), which occupy the upper 100 m or so of the ocean, control the exchange of heat and trace gases between the atmosphere and ocean. Here we show that current parameterizations of this turbulent mixing lead to systematic and substantial errors in the depth of the OSBL in global climate models, which then leads to biases in sea surface temperature. One reason, we argue, is that current parameterizations are missing key surface-wave processes that force Langmuir turbulence that deepens the OSBL more rapidly than steady wind forcing. Scaling arguments are presented to identify two dimensionless parameters that measure the importance of wave forcing against wind forcing, and against buoyancy forcing. A global perspective on the occurrence of waveforced turbulence is developed using re-analysis data to compute these parameters globally. The diagnostic study developed here suggests that turbulent energy available for mixing the OSBL is under-estimated without forcing by surface waves. Wave-forcing and hence Langmuir turbulence could be important over wide areas of the ocean and in all seasons in the Southern Ocean. We conclude that surfacewave- forced Langmuir turbulence is an important process in the OSBL that requires parameterization.

Comment on “B_y fluctuations in the magnetosheath and azimuthal flow velocity transients in the dayside ionosphere” by Newell and Sibeck

Newell and Sibeck [1993] (hereafter N&S) list some objections to our interpretation of dayside auroral transients and associated azimuthal flow bursts in terms of pulsed reconnection [e.g. Lockwood et al., 1989; 1993a]. They present what they term an “apparently overlooked” alternative explanation in terms of steady reconnection and fluctuations in the magnitude of the By component of the magnetosheath field. The objections of N&S can all be answered by reference to our previous publications and their alternative explanation was only “overlooked” in so far as it fails to explain the observations. Here we discuss just some of the reasons why the objections of N&S are invalid, and then give reasons why the events are not simply due to magnetosheath |By| changes.

Three students working on a project in the Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Department of the New York Trade School

This shows three students working on a unit in the Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Department of the New York Trade School. Black and white photograph.

Working on a Lathe in the Carpentry Department of the New York Trade School

A student or teacher at the New York Trade School is shown working on a lathe in the Carpentry Department. Black and white photograph credited to the New York City Works Progress Administration.

Effect of density on population development in the Amazon River prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of heat stress or lipopolysaccharide (E-coli) injection on HSP70 levels in the liver and brain of adrenalectomized rats

Hsp70 content (ng Hsp70 mu g total protein(-1)) in the liver and brain of control and adrenalectomized male rats was investigated by Western Blotting after heat stress (40 degrees C) or endotoxin-induced fever (E. coli lipopolysaccharide injection). The increase in rectal temperature was higher after heat stress than after LPS injection, Heat stress affected Hsp70 content of the liver, but not of the brain; however adrenalectomy did not influence any parameter. These results suggest that, under these circumstances, there is no relationship between the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and Hsp70 synthesis in liver and brain. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative evaluation of the susceptibility of cultivated fishes to the natural infection with myxosporean parasites and tissue changes in the host

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a susceptibilidade de 4 importantes peixes cultivados a parasitos esporozoários. Os peixes foram coletados bimestralmente de um tanque de cultivo, durante 1 ano. Myxobolus colossomatis e Henneguya piaractus foram encontrados nos órgãos internos e brânquias, respectivamente. A incidência de ambos os parasitos foi de 97,3% em pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus), 33,3% no híbrido tambacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus x Colossoma macropomum), 5,6% em tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum) e 0% em carpa (Cyprinus carpio). Pacu foi o peixe mais susceptível, encontrando-se parasitado 79,2% nas brânquias, 66,7% nos rins e 50% no baço. A análise histopatológica das brânquias mostrou hemorragias, reação inflamatória com células mononucleares, fibroblastos e hiperplasia das células basais e mucosas.

Panels Produced from Thermoplastic Composites Reinforced with Peach Palm Fibers for Use in the Civil Construction and Furniture Industry

In order to cooperate in minimizing the problems of the current and growing volume of waste, this work aim at the production of panels made from industrial waste -thermoplastic (polypropylene; polyethylene and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene) reinforced with agro-industrial waste - peach palm waste (shells and sheaths). The properties of the panels like density, thickness swelling, water absorption and moisture content were evaluated using the ASTM D1037; EN 317; and ANSI A208.1 standards regarding particle boards. Good results were obtained with formulations of 100% plastic waste; 70% waste plastics and 30% peach palm waste; and 60% waste plastics and 40% peach palm waste.

Growth curve of Nellore calves reared on natural pasture in the Pantanal

Weight-age and hip height-age relations of Nellore calves, from birth to 10 months old were fitted using a logistic model including sex and year of birth as fixed effects. Calves and their dams were reared on natural pasture using continuous grazing system. The crude protein content and total digestible nutrients were analyzed for pasture selected by the animals. The weights of the calves were adjusted to 205 days and 365 days. There were no significant effects of sex and birth year on the growth curve parameters, but there were significant effects of sex on hip height. The average weight (a parameter) at 10 months of age was 170 kg and the inflection point was observed at 93.5 days old. When weight-age and hip height-age curves were combined in the same graph, the intersection occurred at 142 days. The number of days to gain 160 kg from birth to 205 days of age (adjusted) and number of days to gain 240 kg from 205 days to slaughter was different between the birth years, which were probably due to the quality of the natural pastures. It is necessary to implement nutritional management strategies such as high quality pasture and/or feeding supplementation for calves once they reach three months of age.