Incongruence between test statistics and P values in medical papers

Given an observed test statistic and its degrees of freedom, one may compute the observed P value with most statistical packages. It is unknown to what extent test statistics and P values are congruent in published medical papers. Methods:We checked the congruence of statistical results reported in all the papers of volumes 409–412 of Nature (2001) and a random sample of 63 results from volumes 322–323 of BMJ (2001). We also tested whether the frequencies of the last digit of a sample of 610 test statistics deviated from a uniform distribution (i.e., equally probable digits).Results: 11.6% (21 of 181) and 11.1% (7 of 63) of the statistical results published in Nature and BMJ respectively during 2001 were incongruent, probably mostly due to rounding, transcription, or type-setting errors. At least one such error appeared in 38% and 25% of the papers of Nature and BMJ, respectively. In 12% of the cases, the significance level might change one or more orders of magnitude. The frequencies of the last digit of statistics deviated from the uniform distribution and suggested digit preference in rounding and reporting.Conclusions: this incongruence of test statistics and P values is another example that statistical practice is generally poor, even in the most renowned scientific journals, and that quality of papers should be more controlled and valued

Central nervous system involvement at first relapse in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia treated with all-trans retinoic acid and anthracycline monochemotherapy without intrathecal prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND The prevalence of and risk factors for central nervous system recurrence in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia are not well established and remain a controversial matter. DESIGN AND METHODS Between 1996 and 2005, 739 patients with newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia enrolled in two consecutive trials (PETHEMA LPA96 and LPA99) received induction therapy with all-trans retinoic acid and idarubicin. Consolidation therapy comprised three courses of anthracycline monochemotherapy (LPA96), with all-trans retinoic acid and reinforced doses of idarubicin in patients with an intermediate or high risk of relapse (LPA99). Central nervous system prophylaxis was not given. RESULTS Central nervous system relapse was documented in 11 patients. The 5-year cumulative incidence of central nervous system relapse was 1.7% (LPA96 3.2% and LPA99 1.2%; p=0.09). The cumulative incidence was 0%, 0.8%, and 5.5% in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients, respectively. Relapse risk score (p=0.0001) and the occurrence of central nervous system hemorrhage during induction (5-year cumulative incidence 18.7%, p=0.006) were independent risk factors for central nervous system relapse. CONCLUSIONS This study shows a low incidence of central nervous system relapse in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia following therapy with all-trans retinoic acid and anthracycline without specific central nervous system prophylaxis. Central nervous system relapse was significantly associated with high white blood cell counts and prior central nervous system hemorrhage, which emerged as independent prognostic factors.

Amniotic fluid iodine concentrations do not vary in pregnant women with varying iodine intake.

Iodine deficiency is an important clinical and public health problem. Its prevention begins with an adequate intake of iodine during pregnancy. International agencies recommend at least 200 microg iodine per d for pregnant women. We assessed whether iodine concentrations in the amniotic fluid of healthy pregnant women are independent of iodine intake. This cross-sectional, non-interventional study included 365 consecutive women who underwent amniocentesis to determine the fetal karyotype. The amniocentesis was performed with abdominal antisepsis using chlorhexidine. The iodine concentration was measured in urine and amniotic fluid. The study variables were the intake of iodized salt and multivitamin supplements or the prescription of a KI supplement. The mean level of urinary iodine was 139.0 (SD 94.5) microg/l and of amniotic fluid 15.81 (SD 7.09) microg/l. The women who consumed iodized salt and those who took a KI supplement had significantly higher levels of urinary iodine than those who did not (P = 0.01 and P = 0.004, respectively). The urinary iodine levels were not significantly different in the women who took a multivitamin supplement compared with those who did not take this supplement, independently of iodine concentration or multivitamin supplement. The concentrations of iodine in the amniotic fluid were similar, independent of the dietary iodine intake. Urine and amniotic fluid iodine concentrations were weakly correlated, although the amniotic fluid values were no higher in those women taking a KI supplement. KI prescription at recommended doses increases the iodine levels in the mother without influencing the iodine levels in the amniotic fluid.

A three-year aeropalynological study in Estepona (southern Spain).

An aeropalynological study was carried out in the atmosphere of Estepona, a very popular tourist resort situated in the "Costa del Sol", (southern Spain) based on the data obtained during a three year air-monitoring programme (March 1995 to March 1998) using a volumetric pollen trap. The 34 taxa that reached a 10-day mean air pollen concentration equal to or greater than 1 grain of pollen/m(3) of air are reflected in the calendar. The first 10 taxa, in order of abundance, were: Cupressaceae, Olea europaea, Quercus, Poaceae, Urticaceae, Plantago, Pinus, Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, Ericaceae and Castanea, the first 3 of which accounted for approximately 56 % of the annual total pollen count. The greatest diversity of pollen type occurred during spring, while the highest pollen concentrations were reached from February-June, when approximately more than 80 % of the annual total pollen was registered. The lowest concentrations were obtaining during January, August and September. The annual quantity of pollen collected, the intensity and the dates on which the maximum peaks were recorded differed for the 3 years studied, which can be explained by reference to various meteorological parameters, especially rainfall and temperature. The pollen calendar spectrum is typically Mediterranean and similar to those of nearby localities, in which many pollen types are represented and the long tails indicating long flowering periods.

Meat consumption and mortality - results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND Recently, some US cohorts have shown a moderate association between red and processed meat consumption and mortality supporting the results of previous studies among vegetarians. The aim of this study was to examine the association of red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption with the risk of early death in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS Included in the analysis were 448,568 men and women without prevalent cancer, stroke, or myocardial infarction, and with complete information on diet, smoking, physical activity and body mass index, who were between 35 and 69 years old at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association of meat consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS As of June 2009, 26,344 deaths were observed. After multivariate adjustment, a high consumption of red meat was related to higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.28, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day), and the association was stronger for processed meat (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.66, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day). After correction for measurement error, higher all-cause mortality remained significant only for processed meat (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.25, per 50 g/d). We estimated that 3.3% (95% CI 1.5% to 5.0%) of deaths could be prevented if all participants had a processed meat consumption of less than 20 g/day. Significant associations with processed meat intake were observed for cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and 'other causes of death'. The consumption of poultry was not related to all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS The results of our analysis support a moderate positive association between processed meat consumption and mortality, in particular due to cardiovascular diseases, but also to cancer.

Respiratory infection in congenital cardiac disease. Hospitalizations in young children in Spain during 2004 and 2005: the CIVIC Epidemiologic Study.

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the rate of hospitalization for acute respiratory tract infection in children less than 24 months with haemodynamically significant congenital cardiac disease, and to describe associated risk factors, preventive measures, aetiology, and clinical course. MATERIALS AND METHODS We followed 760 subjects from October 2004 through April 2005 in an epidemiological, multicentric, observational, follow-up, prospective study involving 53 Spanish hospitals. RESULTS Of our cohort, 79 patients (10.4%, 95% CI: 8.2%-12.6%) required a total of 105 admissions to hospital related to respiratory infections. The incidence rate was 21.4 new admissions per 1000 patients-months. Significant associated risk factors for hospitalization included, with odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals shown in parentheses: 22q11 deletion (8.2, 2.5-26.3), weight below the 10th centile (5.2, 1.6-17.4), previous respiratory disease (4.5, 2.3-8.6), incomplete immunoprophylaxis against respiratory syncytial virus (2.2, 1.2-3.9), trisomy 21 (2.1, 1.1-4.2), cardiopulmonary bypass (2.0, 1.1-3.4), and siblings aged less than 11 years old (1.7, 1.1-2.9). Bronchiolitis (51.4%), upper respiratory tract infections (25.7%), and pneumonia (20%) were the main diagnoses. An infectious agent was found in 37 cases (35.2%): respiratory syncytial virus in 25, Streptococcus pneumoniae in 5, and Haemophilus influenzae in 4. The odds ratio for hospitalization due to infection by the respiratory syncytial virus increases by 3.05 (95% CI: 2.14 to 4.35) in patients with incomplete prophylaxis. The median length of hospitalization was 7 days. In 18 patients (17.1%), the clinical course of respiratory infection was complicated and 2 died. CONCLUSIONS Hospital admissions for respiratory infection in young children with haemodynamically significant congenital cardiac disease are mainly associated with non-cardiac conditions, which may be genetic, malnutrition, or respiratory, and to cardiopulmonary bypass. Respiratory syncytial virus was the most commonly identified infectious agent. Incomplete immunoprophylaxis against the virus increased the risk of hospitalization.

Survival, classifications, and desmosomal plaque genes in non-small cell lung cancer.

Novel biomarkers are required to improve prognostic predictions obtained with lung cancer staging systems. This study of 62 surgically-treated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients had two objectives: i) to compare the predictive value of T-stage classifications between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of the Tumor, Node, and Metastasis staging system (TNM); and ii) to examine the association of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 gene expression with survival and outcomes. Multivariate and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed, examining the relationship of survival with T-stage, recurrence, and TNM-stage (by each TNM edition) and with the single/combined expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes. Five-year survival rates only significantly differed as a function of T-stage in patients without recurrence when estimated using the 6(th) edition of the TNM classification and only in patients in pathologic TNM-stage IA using the 7(th). Overall survival for patients with elevated expression of both genes was 13.5 months in those with adenocarcinoma and 34.6 months in those with squamous cell carcinoma. Overall survival was 30.4 months in patients with Pkp1 gene upregulation and 30.9 months in those with Krt15 gene upregulation. In conclusion, survival estimations as a function of T-staging differed between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of TNM. Overall survival differed according to the expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes, although this relationship did not reach statistical significance.

Pulmonary embolism and 3-month outcomes in 4036 patients with venous thromboembolism and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: data from the RIETE registry.

BACKGROUND Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have a modified clinical presentation of venous thromboembolism (VTE) but also a worse prognosis than non-COPD patients with VTE. As it may induce therapeutic modifications, we evaluated the influence of the initial VTE presentation on the 3-month outcomes in COPD patients. METHODS COPD patients included in the on-going world-wide RIETE Registry were studied. The rate of pulmonary embolism (PE), major bleeding and death during the first 3 months in COPD patients were compared according to their initial clinical presentation (acute PE or deep vein thrombosis (DVT)). RESULTS Of the 4036 COPD patients included, 2452 (61%; 95% CI: 59.2-62.3) initially presented with PE. PE as the first VTE recurrence occurred in 116 patients, major bleeding in 101 patients and mortality in 443 patients (Fatal PE: first cause of death). Multivariate analysis confirmed that presenting with PE was associated with higher risk of VTE recurrence as PE (OR, 2.04; 95% CI: 1.11-3.72) and higher risk of fatal PE (OR, 7.77; 95% CI: 2.92-15.7). CONCLUSIONS COPD patients presenting with PE have an increased risk for PE recurrences and fatal PE compared with those presenting with DVT alone. More efficient therapy is needed in this subtype of patients.

Whole-cell antigenicity data support sequence-based kinetoplastid taxonomy

Early immunological data, obtained by immunodiffusion and immunoelectrophoresis, on the whole-cell antigenicity of kinetoplastid protozoa were retrieved and used to construct a dendrogram of antigenic distances. Remarkably, they supported the same taxonomic conclusions as analyses based on DNA and protein sequence data.

Virulence profiles of bacteremic extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli: association with epidemiological and clinical features.

There is scarce data about the importance of phylogroups and virulence factors (VF) in bloodstream infections (BSI) caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBLEC). A prospective multicenter Spanish cohort including 191 cases of BSI due to ESBLEC was studied. Phylogroups and 25 VF genes were investigated by PCR. ESBLEC were classified into clusters according to their virulence profiles. The association of phylogropus, VF, and clusters with epidemiological features were studied using multivariate analysis. Overall, 57.6%, 26.7%, and 15.7% of isolates belonged to A/B1, D and B2 phylogroups, respectively. By multivariate analysis (adjusted OR [95% CI]), virulence cluster C2 was independently associated with urinary tract source (5.05 [0.96-25.48]); cluster C4 with sources other than urinary of biliary tract (2.89 [1.05-7.93]), and cluster C5 with BSI in non-predisposed patients (2.80 [0.99-7.93]). Isolates producing CTX-M-9 group ESBLs and from phylogroup D predominated among cluster C2 and C5, while CTX-M-1 group of ESBL and phylogroup B2 predominantes among C4 isolates. These results suggest that host factors and previous antimicrobial use were more important than phylogroup or specific VF in the occurrence of BSI due to ESBLEC. However, some associations between virulence clusters and some specific epidemiological features were found.

Macronutrient composition of the diet and prospective weight change in participants of the EPIC-PANACEA study.

BACKGROUND The effect of the macronutrient composition of the usual diet on long term weight maintenance remains controversial. METHODS 373,803 subjects aged 25-70 years were recruited in 10 European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA project of the EPIC cohort. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated questionnaires and weight and height were measured at baseline and self-reported at follow-up in most centers. The association between weight change after 5 years of follow-up and the iso-energetic replacement of 5% of energy from one macronutrient by 5% of energy from another macronutrient was assessed using multivariate linear mixed-models. The risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to initial Body Mass Index. RESULTS A higher proportion of energy from fat at the expense of carbohydrates was not significantly associated with weight change after 5 years. However, a higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of fat was positively associated with weight gain. A higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of carbohydrates was also positively associated with weight gain, especially when carbohydrates were rich in fibre. The association between percentage of energy from protein and weight change was slightly stronger in overweight participants, former smokers, participants ≥60 years old, participants underreporting their energy intake and participants with a prudent dietary pattern. Compared to diets with no more than 14% of energy from protein, diets with more than 22% of energy from protein were associated with a 23-24% higher risk of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight and overweight subjects at baseline. CONCLUSION Our results show that participants consuming an amount of protein above the protein intake recommended by the American Diabetes Association may experience a higher risk of becoming overweight or obese during adult life.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

The association between dietary energy density and type 2 diabetes in Europe: results from the EPIC-InterAct Study

BACKGROUND Observational studies implicate higher dietary energy density (DED) as a potential risk factor for weight gain and obesity. It has been hypothesized that DED may also be associated with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but limited evidence exists. Therefore, we investigated the association between DED and risk of T2D in a large prospective study with heterogeneity of dietary intake. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS A case-cohort study was nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) study of 340,234 participants contributing 3.99 million person years of follow-up, identifying 12,403 incident diabetes cases and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. DED was calculated as energy (kcal) from foods (except beverages) divided by the weight (gram) of foods estimated from dietary questionnaires. Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted by country. Risk estimates were pooled by random effects meta-analysis and heterogeneity was evaluated. Estimated mean (sd) DED was 1.5 (0.3) kcal/g among cases and subcohort members, varying across countries (range 1.4-1.7 kcal/g). After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, energy intake from beverages and misreporting of dietary intake, no association was observed between DED and T2D (HR 1.02 (95% CI: 0.93-1.13), which was consistent across countries (I(2) = 2.9%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE In this large European case-cohort study no association between DED of solid and semi-solid foods and risk of T2D was observed. However, despite the fact that there currently is no conclusive evidence for an association between DED and T2DM risk, choosing low energy dense foods should be promoted as they support current WHO recommendations to prevent chronic diseases.

Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.