Modified Discrete PSO to Increase the Delivered Energy Probability in Distribution energy Systems

This paper proposes a PSO based approach to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The statistical failure and repair data of distribution components is the main basis of the proposed methodology that uses a fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A Modified Discrete PSO optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.

Determining the Adjustment Baseline Parameters to Define an Accurate Customer Baseline Load

Demand response is an energy resource that has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and of smart grids. New business models and methods designed to integrate demand response in electricity markets and of smart grids have been published, reporting the need of additional work in this field. In order to adequately remunerate the participation of the consumers in demand response programs, improved consumers’ performance evaluation methods are needed. The methodology proposed in the present paper determines the characterization of the baseline approach that better fits the consumer historic consumption, in order to determine the expected consumption in absent of participation in a demand response event and then determine the actual consumption reduction. The defined baseline can then be used to better determine the remuneration of the consumer. The paper includes a case study with real data to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

IMMUNOSTIMULATION AS ADJUVANT FOR THE CHEMOTHERAPY OF EXPERIMENTAL SCHISTOSOMIASIS

Immunosuppressed animals respond poorly to schistosomal chemotherapy and that a proper response can be restored by the administration of immune serum. Present study attempts to search whether immunological stimulation would increase drug effectiveness. Swiss mice infected with 50 S. mansoni cercariae were later treated with complete Freund's adjuvant. Treatment with oxaminiquine was made with 100 mg/kg.b.w., 25 mg/kg.b.w. and 50 mg/kg/b.w., the last two doses representing a fourth and a half of the recommended curative dose. Appropriate controls for the drug, the adjuvant and the infection were also studied. The serum-level of ant-S. mansoni antibodies (ELISA) and recovery of worms by perfusion of the portal vein system were the evaluated parameters. Statistical analysis of the results failed to reveal significant differences in worm recovery between adjuvant-stimulated animals treated with oxamniquine and any of the treated controls receiving the same amount of the drug. Although total lack of immunity interferes with curative treament the usual immune response seems to be sufficient to allow for curative drug action in schistosomiasis and thus apparently does not need to be artificially stimulated

Virulence parameters in the characterization of strains of Entamoeba histolytica

Differences in virulence of strains of Entamoeba histolytica have long been detected by various experimental assays, both in vivo and in vitro. Discrepancies in the strains characterization have been arisen when different biological assays are compared. In order to evaluate different parameters of virulence in the strains characterization, five strains of E. histolytica, kept under axenic culture, were characterized in respect to their, capability to induce hamster liver abscess, erythrophagocytosis rate and cytopathic effect upon VERO cells. It was found significant correlation between in vitro biological assays, but not between in vivo and in vitro assays. Good correlation was found between cytopathic effect and the mean number of uptaken erythrocytes, but not with percentage of phagocytic amoebae, showing that great variability can be observed in the same assay, according to the variable chosen. It was not possible to correlate isoenzyme and restriction fragment pattern with virulence indexes since all studied strains presented pathogenic patterns. The discordant results observed in different virulence assays suggests that virulence itself may not the directly assessed. What is in fact assessed are different biological characteristics or functions of the parasite more than virulence itself. These characteristics or functions may be related or not with pathogenic mechanisms occurring in the development of invasive amoebic disease

Chronic hepatitis C virus infections in Brazilian patients: association with genotypes, clinical parameters and response to long term alpha interferon therapy

The present study assessed the clinical significance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes and their influence on response to long term recombinant-interferon-alpha (r-IFN-a) therapy in Brazilian patients. One hundred and thirty samples from patients previously genotyped for the HCV and with histologically confirmed chronic hepatitis C (CH-C) were evaluated for clinical and epidemiological parameters (sex, age, time of HCV infection and transmission routes). No difference in disease activity, sex, age or mode and time of transmission were seen among patients infected with HCV types 1, 2 or 3. One hundred and thirteen of them were treated with 3 million units of r-IFN-a, 3 times a week for 12 months. Initial response (IR) was significantly better in patients with genotype 2 (100%) and 3 (46%) infections than in patients with genotype 1 (29%) (p < 0.005). Among subtypes, difference in IR was observed between 1b and 2 (p < 0.005), and between 1b and 3a (p < 0.05). Sustained response (SR) was observed in 12% for (sub)type 1a, 13% for 1b, 19% for 3a, and 40% for type 2; significant differences were found between 1b and 2 (p < 0.001), and between 1b and 3a (p < 0.05). Moreover, presence of cirrhosis was significantly associated with non response and response with relapse (p < 0.05). In conclusion, non-1 HCV genotype and lack of histological diagnosis of cirrhosis were the only baseline features associated with sustained response to treatment. These data indicate that HCV genotyping may have prognostic relevance in the responsiveness to r-IFN-a therapy in Brazilian patients with chronic HCV infection, as seen in other reports worldwide.

High prevalence of GB Virus C/Hepatitis G Virus RNA among Brazilian blood donors

The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of the Hepatitis G Virus on a population of blood donors from São Paulo, Brazil and to evaluate its association to sociodemographic variables. Two RT-PCR systems targeting the putative 5'NCR and NS3 regions were employed and the former has shown a higher sensitivity. The observed prevalence of HGV-RNA on 545 blood donors was 9.7% (CI 95% 7.4;12.5). Statistical analysis depicted an association with race/ethnicity, black and mulatto donors being more frequently infected; and also with years of education, less educated donors presenting higher prevalences. No association was observed with other sociodemographic parameters as age, gender, place of birth and of residence. DNA sequencing of nine randomly chosen isolates demonstrated the presence of genotypes 1, 2 and 3 among our population but clustering of these Brazilian isolates was not detected upon phylogenetic analysis.

A solidão na gravidez : determinantes da solidão e seu impacto na ligação materno-fetal

RESUMO - O sentimento de solidão tem vindo a tornar-se cada vez mais frequente entre os indivíduos, fruto do desenvolvimento da sociedade moderna. Especificamente, ocorrendo durante a gravidez, situação que produz na mulher importantes alterações não só físicas, como também psicológicas, familiares e sociais, deve passar a ser alvo de uma atenção especial. De um ponto de vista da Saúde Mental, o desenvolvimento saudável da gravidez exige uma rede de suporte social e uma relação conjugal satisfatórias. Tais elementos devem ser considerados como factores protectores do aparecimento de sentimentos de solidão. Pelo contrário, um baixo sentido de coerência e o aparecimento de depressão durante a gravidez são factores de risco que, inevitavelmente, irão interferir na qualidade da ligação materno-fetal, com repercussões no desenvolvimento psico-social do futuro ser humano. Este protocolo de projecto propõe um estudo transversal, exploratório e de natureza quantitativa. Engloba dois sub-estudos, focando os determinantes da solidão e o impacto desta na ligação materno-fetal, e pretende identificar associações pertinentes entre as várias dimensões envolvidas. A amostra em estudo será constituída por 202 grávidas que frequentam o Centro de Saúde de Torres Vedras. As variáveis correspondentes serão operacionalizadas através de questionários estandardizados e validados para a população portuguesa, sendo eles a Escala de Solidão da UCLA, a Escala de Satisfação com o Suporte Social, a Escala de Avaliação de Áreas da Vida Conjugal, a Escala de Ligação Materno-Fetal, a Escala de Depressão Pós-Parto de Edimburgo e o Questionário de Orientação para Viver. Espera-se identificar e caracterizar as possíveis associações entre a solidão e a satisfação com o suporte social, a satisfação conjugal, a depressão durante a gravidez e o sentido de coerência, que a explicarão, e a ligação materno-fetal, que será influenciada por ela. Os questionários serão respondidos pelas grávidas seleccionadas de acordo com critérios de inclusão e exclusão. Além das descrições estatísticas iniciais, as análises de associação serão realizadas em função das distribuições encontradas, e tendo em conta dimensões do contexto sociodemográfico. Os resultados da investigação serão divulgados num relatório final. ----------------------- ABSTRACT - The feeling of loneliness is increasing as a result of developments in modern society. Specifically occurring during pregnancy, when important changes - physical, psychological and related to the family structure and interaction with society - take place, special attention should be devoted. To maintain good mental health during pregnancy it is important to have good social support and harmonious conjugal relations, both considered as factors preventing the emergence of feelings of loneliness. By contrast low sense of coherence and depression during the pregnancy are risk factors which, inevitably, will affect the quality of the maternal-fetal attachment and have repercussions on the psycho-social development of the future individual. This protocol of draft proposes a transversal exploratory study of a quantitative nature on two sub-studies, exploring the determinants of loneliness and its impact on the maternal-fetal attachment, which intends to identify some correlations between parameters. The study sample is made up of 202 pregnant women who are patients at the Health Centre of the city of Torres Vedras. They will be selected according to criteria of inclusion and exclusion. All variables will be measured through standardized and validated surveys illustrating the Portuguese population, like the Scale of Loneliness of the UCLA, Scale of Satisfaction with the Social Support, Scale of Evaluation of Areas of the Conjugal Life, Maternal-Fetal Attachment Scale, Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, and Orientation To Life Questionnaire. We expect to identify correlations between loneliness and satisfaction with social support and conjugal relations, depression during pregnancy and sense of coherence, which will explain it, and the maternal-fetal attachment, which will influence it. Beyond the initial statistical descriptions, the data analysis will be executed according to the distributions found and will be carried taking into account the socio-demographic context. The results of the survey will be published in a final report.

Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

Generalized Extraction of Real-Time Parameters for Homogeneous Synchronous Dataflow Graphs

23rd Euromicro International Conference on Parallel, Distributed, and Network-Based Processing (PDP 2015). 4 to 6, Mar, 2015. Turku, Finland.

Response Time Analysis for Fixed-Priority Tasks with Multiple Probabilistic Parameters

Demo presented in 12th Workshop on Models and Algorithms for Planning and Scheduling Problems (MAPSP 2015). 8 to 12, Jun, 2015. La Roche-en-Ardenne, Belgium. Extended abstract.

Detection of EBV-DNA in serum samples of an immunosuppressed child during a three years follow-up: association of clinical and PCR data with active infection

Twenty-four whole blood and serum samples were drawn from an eight year-old heart transplant child during a 36 months follow-up. EBV serology was positive for VCA-IgM and IgG, and negative for EBNA-IgG at the age of five years old when the child presented with signs and symptoms suggestive of acute infectious mononucleosis. After 14 months, serological parameters were: positive VCA-IgG, EBNA-IgG and negative VCA-IgM. This serological pattern has been maintained since then even during episodes suggestive of EBV reactivation. PCR amplified a specific DNA fragment from the EBV gp220 (detection limit of 100 viral copies). All twenty-four whole blood samples yielded positive results by PCR, while 12 out of 24 serum samples were positive. We aimed at analyzing whether detection of EBV-DNA in serum samples by PCR was associated with overt disease as stated by the need of antiviral treatment and hospitalization. Statistical analysis showed agreement between the two parameters evidenced by the Kappa test (value 0.750; p < 0.001). We concluded that detection of EBV-DNA in serum samples of immunosuppressed patients might be used as a laboratory marker of active EBV disease when a Real-Time PCR or another quantitative method is not available.

Utilidade do Doppler Tecidular na Predição de Eventos Arrítmicos em Adultos com Tetralogia de Fallot Corrigida

INTRODUCTION: Adults with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) may be at risk for progressive right ventricular (RV) dilatation and dysfunction, which is commonly associated with arrhythmic events. In frequently volume-overloaded patients with congenital heart disease, tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) is particularly useful for assessing RV function. However, it is not known whether RV TDI can predict outcome in this population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether RV TDI parameters are associated with supraventricular arrhythmic events in adults with repaired TOF. METHODS: We studied 40 consecutive patients with repaired TOF (mean age 35 +/- 11 years, 62% male) referred for routine echocardiographic exam between 2007 and 2008. The following echocardiographic measurements were obtained: left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction, LV end-systolic volume, LV end-diastolic volume, RV fractional area change, RV end-systolic area, RV end-diastolic area, left and right atrial volumes, mitral E and A velocities, RV myocardial performance index (Tei index), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), myocardial isovolumic acceleration (IVA), pulmonary regurgitation color flow area, TDI basal lateral, septal and RV lateral peak diastolic and systolic annular velocities (E' 1, A' 1, S' 1, E' s, A' s, S' s, E' rv, A' rv, S' rv), strain, strain rate and tissue tracking of the same segments. QRS duration on resting ECG, total duration of Bruce treadmill exercise stress test and presence of exercise-induced arrhythmias were also analyzed. The patients were subsequently divided into two groups: Group 1--12 patients with previous documented supraventricular arrhythmias (atrial tachycardia, fibrillation or flutter) and Group 2 (control group)--28 patients with no previous arrhythmic events. Univariate and multivariate analysis was used to assess the statistical association between the studied parameters and arrhythmic events. RESULTS: Patients with previous events were older (41 +/- 14 vs. 31 +/- 6 years, p = 0.005), had wider QRS (173 +/- 20 vs. 140 +/- 32 ms, p = 0.01) and lower maximum heart rate on treadmill stress testing (69 +/- 35 vs. 92 +/- 9%, p = 0.03). All patients were in NYHA class I or II. Clinical characteristics including age at corrective surgery, previous palliative surgery and residual defects did not differ significantly between the two groups. Left and right cardiac chamber dimensions and ventricular and valvular function as evaluated by conventional Doppler parameters were also not significantly different. Right ventricular strain and strain rate were similar between the groups. However, right ventricular myocardial TDI systolic (Sa: 5.4+2 vs. 8.5 +/- 3, p = 0.004) and diastolic indices and velocities (Ea, Aa, septal E/Ea, and RV free wall tissue tracking) were significantly reduced in patients with arrhythmias compared to the control group. Multivariate linear regression analysis identified RV early diastolic velocity as the sole variable independently associated with arrhythmic history (RV Ea: 4.5 +/- 1 vs. 6.7 +/- 2 cm/s, p = 0.01). A cut-off for RV Ea of < 6.1 cm/s identified patients in the arrhythmic group with 86% sensitivity and 59% specificity (AUC = 0.8). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that TDI may detect RV dysfunction in patients with apparently normal function as assessed by conventional echocardiographic parameters. Reduction in RV early diastolic velocity appears to be an early abnormality and is associated with occurrence of arrhythmic events. TDI may be useful in risk stratification of patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot.

Fractional Dynamics in Forest Fires

Every year forest fires consume large areas, being a major concern in many countries like Australia, United States and Mediterranean Basin European Countries (e.g., Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece). Understanding patterns of such events, in terms of size and spatiotemporal distributions, may help to take measures beforehand in view of possible hazards and decide strategies of fire prevention, detection and suppression. Traditional statistical tools have been used to study forest fires. Nevertheless, those tools might not be able to capture the main features of fires complex dynamics and to model fire behaviour [1]. Forest fires size-frequency distributions unveil long range correlations and long memory characteristics, which are typical of fractional order systems [2]. Those complex correlations are characterized by self-similarity and absence of characteristic length-scale, meaning that forest fires exhibit power-law (PL) behaviour. Forest fires have also been proved to exhibit time-clustering phenomena, with timescales of the order of few days [3]. In this paper, we study forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus (FC). Public domain forest fires catalogues, containing data of events occurred in Portugal, in the period 1980 up to 2011, are considered. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses. The frequency spectra of such signals are determined using Fourier transforms, and approximated through PL trendlines. The PL parameters are then used to unveil the fractional-order dynamics characteristics of the data. To complement the analysis, correlation indices are used to compare and find possible relationships among the data. It is shown that the used approach can be useful to expose hidden patterns not captured by traditional tools.