An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data

1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

Stochastic inversion of tracer test and electrical geophysical data to estimate hydraulic conductivities.

Quantifying the spatial configuration of hydraulic conductivity (K) in heterogeneous geological environments is essential for accurate predictions of contaminant transport, but is difficult because of the inherent limitations in resolution and coverage associated with traditional hydrological measurements. To address this issue, we consider crosshole and surface-based electrical resistivity geophysical measurements, collected in time during a saline tracer experiment. We use a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (McMC) methodology to jointly invert the dynamic resistivity data, together with borehole tracer concentration data, to generate multiple posterior realizations of K that are consistent with all available information. We do this within a coupled inversion framework, whereby the geophysical and hydrological forward models are linked through an uncertain relationship between electrical resistivity and concentration. To minimize computational expense, a facies-based subsurface parameterization is developed. The Bayesian-McMC methodology allows us to explore the potential benefits of including the geophysical data into the inverse problem by examining their effect on our ability to identify fast flowpaths in the subsurface, and their impact on hydrological prediction uncertainty. Using a complex, geostatistically generated, two-dimensional numerical example representative of a fluvial environment, we demonstrate that flow model calibration is improved and prediction error is decreased when the electrical resistivity data are included. The worth of the geophysical data is found to be greatest for long spatial correlation lengths of subsurface heterogeneity with respect to wellbore separation, where flow and transport are largely controlled by highly connected flowpaths.

Classification of very high spatial resolution imagery using mathematical morphology and support vector machines

We investigate the relevance of morphological operators for the classification of land use in urban scenes using submetric panchromatic imagery. A support vector machine is used for the classification. Six types of filters have been employed: opening and closing, opening and closing by reconstruction, and opening and closing top hat. The type and scale of the filters are discussed, and a feature selection algorithm called recursive feature elimination is applied to decrease the dimensionality of the input data. The analysis performed on two QuickBird panchromatic images showed that simple opening and closing operators are the most relevant for classification at such a high spatial resolution. Moreover, mixed sets combining simple and reconstruction filters provided the best performance. Tests performed on both images, having areas characterized by different architectural styles, yielded similar results for both feature selection and classification accuracy, suggesting the generalization of the feature sets highlighted.

Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases

Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other-NECTAR-includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.

A spatially explicit life cycle inventory of the global textile chain

Life cycle analyses (LCA) approaches require adaptation to reflect the increasing delocalization of production to emerging countries. This work addresses this challenge by establishing a country-level, spatially explicit life cycle inventory (LCI). This study comprises three separate dimensions. The first dimension is spatial: processes and emissions are allocated to the country in which they take place and modeled to take into account local factors. Emerging economies China and India are the location of production, the consumption occurs in Germany, an Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development country. The second dimension is the product level: we consider two distinct textile garments, a cotton T-shirt and a polyester jacket, in order to highlight potential differences in the production and use phases. The third dimension is the inventory composition: we track CO2, SO2, NO (x), and particulates, four major atmospheric pollutants, as well as energy use. This third dimension enriches the analysis of the spatial differentiation (first dimension) and distinct products (second dimension). We describe the textile production and use processes and define a functional unit for a garment. We then model important processes using a hierarchy of preferential data sources. We place special emphasis on the modeling of the principal local energy processes: electricity and transport in emerging countries. The spatially explicit inventory is disaggregated by country of location of the emissions and analyzed according to the dimensions of the study: location, product, and pollutant. The inventory shows striking differences between the two products considered as well as between the different pollutants considered. For the T-shirt, over 70% of the energy use and CO2 emissions occur in the consuming country, whereas for the jacket, more than 70% occur in the producing country. This reversal of proportions is due to differences in the use phase of the garments. For SO2, in contrast, over two thirds of the emissions occur in the country of production for both T-shirt and jacket. The difference in emission patterns between CO2 and SO2 is due to local electricity processes, justifying our emphasis on local energy infrastructure. The complexity of considering differences in location, product, and pollutant is rewarded by a much richer understanding of a global production-consumption chain. The inclusion of two different products in the LCI highlights the importance of the definition of a product's functional unit in the analysis and implications of results. Several use-phase scenarios demonstrate the importance of consumer behavior over equipment efficiency. The spatial emission patterns of the different pollutants allow us to understand the role of various energy infrastructure elements. The emission patterns furthermore inform the debate on the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which applies only to pollutants which can be easily filtered and does not take into account the effects of production displacement. We also discuss the appropriateness and limitations of applying the LCA methodology in a global context, especially in developing countries. Our spatial LCI method yields important insights in the quantity and pattern of emissions due to different product life cycle stages, dependent on the local technology, emphasizing the importance of consumer behavior. From a life cycle perspective, consumer education promoting air-drying and cool washing is more important than efficient appliances. Spatial LCI with country-specific data is a promising method, necessary for the challenges of globalized production-consumption chains. We recommend inventory reporting of final energy forms, such as electricity, and modular LCA databases, which would allow the easy modification of underlying energy infrastructure.

Prediction of soil orders with high spatial resolution: response of different classifiers to sampling density

The objective of this work was to evaluate sampling density on the prediction accuracy of soil orders, with high spatial resolution, in a viticultural zone of Serra Gaúcha, Southern Brazil. A digital elevation model (DEM), a cartographic base, a conventional soil map, and the Idrisi software were used. Seven predictor variables were calculated and read along with soil classes in randomly distributed points, with sampling densities of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, and 4 points per hectare. Data were used to train a decision tree (Gini) and three artificial neural networks: adaptive resonance theory, fuzzy ARTMap; self‑organizing map, SOM; and multi‑layer perceptron, MLP. Estimated maps were compared with the conventional soil map to calculate omission and commission errors, overall accuracy, and quantity and allocation disagreement. The decision tree was less sensitive to sampling density and had the highest accuracy and consistence. The SOM was the less sensitive and most consistent network. The MLP had a critical minimum and showed high inconsistency, whereas fuzzy ARTMap was more sensitive and less accurate. Results indicate that sampling densities used in conventional soil surveys can serve as a reference to predict soil orders in Serra Gaúcha.

Spatial prediction of monthly wind speeds in complex terrain with adaptive general regression neural networks

This paper presents the general regression neural networks (GRNN) as a nonlinear regression method for the interpolation of monthly wind speeds in complex Alpine orography. GRNN is trained using data coming from Swiss meteorological networks to learn the statistical relationship between topographic features and wind speed. The terrain convexity, slope and exposure are considered by extracting features from the digital elevation model at different spatial scales using specialised convolution filters. A database of gridded monthly wind speeds is then constructed by applying GRNN in prediction mode during the period 1968-2008. This study demonstrates that using topographic features as inputs in GRNN significantly reduces cross-validation errors with respect to low-dimensional models integrating only geographical coordinates and terrain height for the interpolation of wind speed. The spatial predictability of wind speed is found to be lower in summer than in winter due to more complex and weaker wind-topography relationships. The relevance of these relationships is studied using an adaptive version of the GRNN algorithm which allows to select the useful terrain features by eliminating the noisy ones. This research provides a framework for extending the low-dimensional interpolation models to high-dimensional spaces by integrating additional features accounting for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

Reversible and high capacity data hiding in medical images

In this paper we introduce a highly efficient reversible data hiding system. It is based on dividing the image into tiles and shifting the histograms of each image tile between its minimum and maximum frequency. Data are then inserted at the pixel level with the largest frequency to maximize data hiding capacity. It exploits the special properties of medical images, where the histogram of their nonoverlapping image tiles mostly peak around some gray values and the rest of the spectrum is mainlyempty. The zeros (or minima) and peaks (maxima) of the histograms of the image tiles are then relocated to embed the data. The grey values of some pixels are therefore modified.High capacity, high fidelity, reversibility and multiple data insertions are the key requirements of data hiding in medical images. We show how histograms of image tiles of medical images can be exploited to achieve these requirements. Compared with data hiding method applied to the whole image, our scheme can result in 30%-200% capacity improvement and still with better image quality, depending on the medical image content. Additional advantages of the proposed method include hiding data in the regions of non-interest and better exploitation of spatial masking.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

Characteristics of 2D convective structures in Catalonia (NE Spain): an analysis using radar data and GIS

Flood simulation studies use spatial-temporal rainfall data input into distributed hydrological models. A correct description of rainfall in space and in time contributes to improvements on hydrological modelling and design. This work is focused on the analysis of 2-D convective structures (rain cells), whose contribution is especially significant in most flood events. The objective of this paper is to provide statistical descriptors and distribution functions for convective structure characteristics of precipitation systems producing floods in Catalonia (NE Spain). To achieve this purpose heavy rainfall events recorded between 1996 and 2000 have been analysed. By means of weather radar, and applying 2-D radar algorithms a distinction between convective and stratiform precipitation is made. These data are introduced and analyzed with a GIS. In a first step different groups of connected pixels with convective precipitation are identified. Only convective structures with an area greater than 32 km2 are selected. Then, geometric characteristics (area, perimeter, orientation and dimensions of the ellipse), and rainfall statistics (maximum, mean, minimum, range, standard deviation, and sum) of these structures are obtained and stored in a database. Finally, descriptive statistics for selected characteristics are calculated and statistical distributions are fitted to the observed frequency distributions. Statistical analyses reveal that the Generalized Pareto distribution for the area and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution for the perimeter, dimensions, orientation and mean areal precipitation are the statistical distributions that best fit the observed ones of these parameters. The statistical descriptors and the probability distribution functions obtained are of direct use as an input in spatial rainfall generators.

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging techniques for motion-suppressed multi-dimensional coronary artery imaging with high spatial and temporal resolution

L'imagerie par résonance magnétique (IRM) peut fournir aux cardiologues des informations diagnostiques importantes sur l'état de la maladie de l'artère coronarienne dans les patients. Le défi majeur pour l'IRM cardiaque est de gérer toutes les sources de mouvement qui peuvent affecter la qualité des images en réduisant l'information diagnostique. Cette thèse a donc comme but de développer des nouvelles techniques d'acquisitions des images IRM, en changeant les techniques de compensation du mouvement, pour en augmenter l'efficacité, la flexibilité, la robustesse et pour obtenir plus d'information sur le tissu et plus d'information temporelle. Les techniques proposées favorisent donc l'avancement de l'imagerie des coronaires dans une direction plus maniable et multi-usage qui peut facilement être transférée dans l'environnement clinique. La première partie de la thèse s'est concentrée sur l'étude du mouvement des artères coronariennes sur des patients en utilisant la techniques d'imagerie standard (rayons x), pour mesurer la précision avec laquelle les artères coronariennes retournent dans la même position battement après battement (repositionnement des coronaires). Nous avons découvert qu'il y a des intervalles dans le cycle cardiaque, tôt dans la systole et à moitié de la diastole, où le repositionnement des coronaires est au minimum. En réponse nous avons développé une nouvelle séquence d'acquisition (T2-post) capable d'acquérir les données aussi tôt dans la systole. Cette séquence a été testée sur des volontaires sains et on a pu constater que la qualité de visualisation des artère coronariennes est égale à celle obtenue avec les techniques standard. De plus, le rapport signal sur bruit fourni par la séquence d'acquisition proposée est supérieur à celui obtenu avec les techniques d'imagerie standard. La deuxième partie de la thèse a exploré un paradigme d'acquisition des images cardiaques complètement nouveau pour l'imagerie du coeur entier. La technique proposée dans ce travail acquiert les données sans arrêt (free-running) au lieu d'être synchronisée avec le mouvement cardiaque. De cette façon, l'efficacité de la séquence d'acquisition est augmentée de manière significative et les images produites représentent le coeur entier dans toutes les phases cardiaques (quatre dimensions, 4D). Par ailleurs, l'auto-navigation de la respiration permet d'effectuer cette acquisition en respiration libre. Cette technologie rend possible de visualiser et évaluer l'anatomie du coeur et de ses vaisseaux ainsi que la fonction cardiaque en quatre dimensions et avec une très haute résolution spatiale et temporelle, sans la nécessité d'injecter un moyen de contraste. Le pas essentiel qui a permis le développement de cette technique est l'utilisation d'une trajectoire d'acquisition radiale 3D basée sur l'angle d'or. Avec cette trajectoire, il est possible d'acquérir continûment les données d'espace k, puis de réordonner les données et choisir les paramètres temporel des images 4D a posteriori. L'acquisition 4D a été aussi couplée avec un algorithme de reconstructions itératif (compressed sensing) qui permet d'augmenter la résolution temporelle tout en augmentant la qualité des images. Grâce aux images 4D, il est possible maintenant de visualiser les artères coronariennes entières dans chaque phase du cycle cardiaque et, avec les mêmes données, de visualiser et mesurer la fonction cardiaque. La qualité des artères coronariennes dans les images 4D est la même que dans les images obtenues avec une acquisition 3D standard, acquise en diastole Par ailleurs, les valeurs de fonction cardiaque mesurées au moyen des images 4D concorde avec les valeurs obtenues avec les images 2D standard. Finalement, dans la dernière partie de la thèse une technique d'acquisition a temps d'écho ultra-court (UTE) a été développée pour la visualisation in vivo des calcifications des artères coronariennes. Des études récentes ont démontré que les acquisitions UTE permettent de visualiser les calcifications dans des plaques athérosclérotiques ex vivo. Cepandent le mouvement du coeur a entravé jusqu'à maintenant l'utilisation des techniques UTE in vivo. Pour résoudre ce problème nous avons développé une séquence d'acquisition UTE avec trajectoire radiale 3D et l'avons testée sur des volontaires. La technique proposée utilise une auto-navigation 3D pour corriger le mouvement respiratoire et est synchronisée avec l'ECG. Trois échos sont acquis pour extraire le signal de la calcification avec des composants au T2 très court tout en permettant de séparer le signal de la graisse depuis le signal de l'eau. Les résultats sont encore préliminaires mais on peut affirmer que la technique développé peut potentiellement montrer les calcifications des artères coronariennes in vivo. En conclusion, ce travail de thèse présente trois nouvelles techniques pour l'IRM du coeur entier capables d'améliorer la visualisation et la caractérisation de la maladie athérosclérotique des coronaires. Ces techniques fournissent des informations anatomiques et fonctionnelles en quatre dimensions et des informations sur la composition du tissu auparavant indisponibles. CORONARY artery magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has the potential to provide the cardiologist with relevant diagnostic information relative to coronary artery disease of patients. The major challenge of cardiac MRI, though, is dealing with all sources of motions that can corrupt the images affecting the diagnostic information provided. The current thesis, thus, focused on the development of new MRI techniques that change the standard approach to cardiac motion compensation in order to increase the efficiency of cardioavscular MRI, to provide more flexibility and robustness, new temporal information and new tissue information. The proposed approaches help in advancing coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) in the direction of an easy-to-use and multipurpose tool that can be translated to the clinical environment. The first part of the thesis focused on the study of coronary artery motion through gold standard imaging techniques (x-ray angiography) in patients, in order to measure the precision with which the coronary arteries assume the same position beat after beat (coronary artery repositioning). We learned that intervals with minimal coronary artery repositioning occur in peak systole and in mid diastole and we responded with a new pulse sequence (T2~post) that is able to provide peak-systolic imaging. Such a sequence was tested in healthy volunteers and, from the image quality comparison, we learned that the proposed approach provides coronary artery visualization and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) comparable with the standard acquisition approach, but with increased signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The second part of the thesis explored a completely new paradigm for whole- heart cardiovascular MRI. The proposed techniques acquires the data continuously (free-running), instead of being triggered, thus increasing the efficiency of the acquisition and providing four dimensional images of the whole heart, while respiratory self navigation allows for the scan to be performed in free breathing. This enabling technology allows for anatomical and functional evaluation in four dimensions, with high spatial and temporal resolution and without the need for contrast agent injection. The enabling step is the use of a golden-angle based 3D radial trajectory, which allows for a continuous sampling of the k-space and a retrospective selection of the timing parameters of the reconstructed dataset. The free-running 4D acquisition was then combined with a compressed sensing reconstruction algorithm that further increases the temporal resolution of the 4D dataset, while at the same time increasing the overall image quality by removing undersampling artifacts. The obtained 4D images provide visualization of the whole coronary artery tree in each phases of the cardiac cycle and, at the same time, allow for the assessment of the cardiac function with a single free- breathing scan. The quality of the coronary arteries provided by the frames of the free-running 4D acquisition is in line with the one obtained with the standard ECG-triggered one, and the cardiac function evaluation matched the one measured with gold-standard stack of 2D cine approaches. Finally, the last part of the thesis focused on the development of ultrashort echo time (UTE) acquisition scheme for in vivo detection of calcification in the coronary arteries. Recent studies showed that UTE imaging allows for the coronary artery plaque calcification ex vivo, since it is able to detect the short T2 components of the calcification. The heart motion, though, prevented this technique from being applied in vivo. An ECG-triggered self-navigated 3D radial triple- echo UTE acquisition has then been developed and tested in healthy volunteers. The proposed sequence combines a 3D self-navigation approach with a 3D radial UTE acquisition enabling data collection during free breathing. Three echoes are simultaneously acquired to extract the short T2 components of the calcification while a water and fat separation technique allows for proper visualization of the coronary arteries. Even though the results are still preliminary, the proposed sequence showed great potential for the in vivo visualization of coronary artery calcification. In conclusion, the thesis presents three novel MRI approaches aimed at improved characterization and assessment of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease. These approaches provide new anatomical and functional information in four dimensions, and support tissue characterization for coronary artery plaques.

Biotic interactions boost spatial models of species richness

Biotic interactions are known to affect the composition of species assemblages via several mechanisms, such as competition and facilitation. However, most spatial models of species richness do not explicitly consider inter-specific interactions. Here, we test whether incorporating biotic interactions into high-resolution models alters predictions of species richness as hypothesised. We included key biotic variables (cover of three dominant arctic-alpine plant species) into two methodologically divergent species richness modelling frameworks - stacked species distribution models (SSDM) and macroecological models (MEM) - for three ecologically and evolutionary distinct taxonomic groups (vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens). Predictions from models including biotic interactions were compared to the predictions of models based on climatic and abiotic data only. Including plant-plant interactions consistently and significantly lowered bias in species richness predictions and increased predictive power for independent evaluation data when compared to the conventional climatic and abiotic data based models. Improvements in predictions were constant irrespective of the modelling framework or taxonomic group used. The global biodiversity crisis necessitates accurate predictions of how changes in biotic and abiotic conditions will potentially affect species richness patterns. Here, we demonstrate that models of the spatial distribution of species richness can be improved by incorporating biotic interactions, and thus that these key predictor factors must be accounted for in biodiversity forecasts

Infrastructure Investment and Spanish Economic Growth, 1850-1935

This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure investment on Spanish economic growth between 1850 and 1935. Using new infrastructure data and VAR techniques, this paper shows that the growth impact of local-scope infrastructure investment was positive, but returns to investment in large nation-wide networks were not significantly different from zero. Two complementary explanations are suggested for the last result. On the one hand, public intervention and the application of non-efficiency investment criteria were very intense in large network construction. On the other hand, returns to new investment in large networks might have decreased dramatically once the basic links were constructed.