Pairwise similarity of TopSig document signatures

This paper analyses the pairwise distances of signatures produced by the TopSig retrieval model on two document collections. The distribution of the distances are compared to purely random signatures. It explains why TopSig is only competitive with state of the art retrieval models at early precision. Only the local neighbourhood of the signatures is interpretable. We suggest this is a common property of vector space models.

Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

Spatial and temporal distribution of falciparum malaria in China

Background: Falciparum malaria is the most deadly among the four main types of human malaria. Although great success has been achieved since the launch of the National Malaria Control Programme in 1955, malaria remains a serious public health problem in China. This paper aimed to analyse the geographic distribution, demographic patterns and time trends of falciparum malaria in China. Methods: The annual numbers of falciparum malaria cases during 1992–2003 and the individual case reports of each clinical falciparum malaria during 2004–2005 were extracted from communicable disease information systems in China Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. The annual number of cases and the annual incidence were mapped by matching them to corresponding province- and county-level administrative units in a geographic information system. The distribution of falciparum malaria by age, gender and origin of infection was analysed. Time-series analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the falciparum malaria in the endemic provinces and the imported falciparum malaria in non-endemic provinces. Results: Falciparum malaria was endemic in two provinces of China during 2004–05. Imported malaria was reported in 26 non-endemic provinces. Annual incidence of falciparum malaria was mapped at county level in the two endemic provinces of China: Yunnan and Hainan. The sex ratio (male vs. female) for the number of cases in Yunnan was 1.6 in the children of 0–15 years and it reached 5.7 in the adults over 15 years of age. The number of malaria cases in Yunnan was positively correlated with the imported malaria of concurrent months in the non-endemic provinces. Conclusion: The endemic area of falciparum malaria in China has remained restricted to two provinces, Yunnan and Hainan. Stable transmission occurs in the bordering region of Yunnan and the hilly-forested south of Hainan. The age and gender distribution in the endemic area is characterized by the predominance of adult men cases. Imported falciparum malaria in the non-endemic area of China, affected mainly by the malaria transmission in Yunnan, has increased both spatially and temporally. Specific intervention measures targeted at the mobile population groups are warranted.

Genetic analysis of maize streak virus isolates from Uganda reveals widespread distribution of a recombinant variant

Maize streak virus (MSV) contributes significantly to the problem of extremely low African maize yields. Whilst a diverse range of MSV and MSV-like viruses are endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and neighbouring islands, only a single group of maize-adapted variants - MSV subtypes A1 -A6 - causes severe enough disease in maize to influence yields substantially. In order to assist in designing effective strategies to control MSV in maize, a large survey covering 155 locations was conducted to assess the diversity, distribution and genetic characteristics of the Ugandan MSV-A population. PCR-restriction fragment-length polymorphism analyses of 391 virus isolates identified 49 genetic variants. Sixty-two full-genome sequences were determined, 52 of which were detectably recombinant. All but two recombinants contained predominantly MSV-A1-like sequences. Of the ten distinct recombination events observed, seven involved inter-MSV-A subtype recombination and three involved intra-MSV-A1 recombination. One of the intra-MSV-A1 recombinants, designated MSV-A1 UgIII, accounted for >60% of all MSV infections sampled throughout Uganda. Although recombination may be an important factor in the emergence of novel geminivirus variants, it is demonstrated that its characteristics in MSV are quite different from those observed in related African cassava-infecting geminivirus species. © 2007 SGM.

Global genetic diversity and geographical and host-species distribution of beak and feather disease virus isolates

Psittacine beak and feather disease (PBFD) has a broad host range and is widespread in wild and captive psittacine populations in Asia, Africa, the Americas, Europe and Australasia. Beak and feather disease circovirus (BFDV) is the causative agent. BFDV has an ~2 kb single stranded circular DNA genome encoding just two proteins (Rep and CP). In this study we provide support for demarcation of BFDV strains by phylogenetic analysis of 65 complete genomes from databases and 22 new BFDV sequences isolated from infected psittacines in South Africa. We propose 94% genome-wide sequence identity as a strain demarcation threshold, with isolates sharing > 94% identity belonging to the same strain, and strain subtypes sharing> 98% identity. Currently, BFDV diversity falls within 14 strains, with five highly divergent isolates from budgerigars probably representing a new species of circovirus with three strains (budgerigar circovirus; BCV-A, -B and -C). The geographical distribution of BFDV and BCV strains is strongly linked to the international trade in exotic birds; strains with more than one host are generally located in the same geographical area. Lastly, we examined BFDV and BCV sequences for evidence of recombination, and determined that recombination had occurred in most BFDV and BCV strains. We established that there were two globally significant recombination hotspots in the viral genome: the first is along the entire intergenic region and the second is in the C-terminal portion of the CP ORF. The implications of our results for the taxonomy and classification of circoviruses are discussed. © 2011 SGM.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Pore formation during dehydration of polycrystalline gypsum observed and quantified in a time-series synchrotron radiation based X-ray micro-tomography experiment

We conducted an in-situ X-ray micro-computed tomography heating experiment at the Advanced Photon Source (USA) to dehydrate an unconfined 2.3 mm diameter cylinder of Volterra Gypsum. We used a purpose-built X-ray transparent furnace to heat the sample to 388 K for a total of 310 min to acquire a three-dimensional time-series tomography dataset comprising nine time steps. The voxel size of 2.2 μm3 proved sufficient to pinpoint reaction initiation and the organization of drainage architecture in space and time. We observed that dehydration commences across a narrow front, which propagates from the margins to the centre of the sample in more than four hours. The advance of this front can be fitted with a square-root function, implying that the initiation of the reaction in the sample can be described as a diffusion process. Novel parallelized computer codes allow quantifying the geometry of the porosity and the drainage architecture from the very large tomographic datasets (20483 voxels) in unprecedented detail. We determined position, volume, shape and orientation of each resolvable pore and tracked these properties over the duration of the experiment. We found that the pore-size distribution follows a power law. Pores tend to be anisotropic but rarely crack-shaped and have a preferred orientation, likely controlled by a pre-existing fabric in the sample. With on-going dehydration, pores coalesce into a single interconnected pore cluster that is connected to the surface of the sample cylinder and provides an effective drainage pathway. Our observations can be summarized in a model in which gypsum is stabilized by thermal expansion stresses and locally increased pore fluid pressures until the dehydration front approaches to within about 100 μm. Then, the internal stresses are released and dehydration happens efficiently, resulting in new pore space. Pressure release, the production of pores and the advance of the front are coupled in a feedback loop.

Optimal planning of electric-vehicle charging stations in distribution systems

With the progressive exhaustion of fossil energy and the enhanced awareness of environmental protection, more attention is being paid to electric vehicles (EVs). Inappropriate siting and sizing of EV charging stations could have negative effects on the development of EVs, the layout of the city traffic network, and the convenience of EVs' drivers, and lead to an increase in network losses and a degradation in voltage profiles at some nodes. Given this background, the optimal sites of EV charging stations are first identified by a two-step screening method with environmental factors and service radius of EV charging stations considered. Then, a mathematical model for the optimal sizing of EV charging stations is developed with the minimization of total cost associated with EV charging stations to be planned as the objective function and solved by a modified primal-dual interior point algorithm (MPDIPA). Finally, simulation results of the IEEE 123-node test feeder have demonstrated that the developed model and method cannot only attain the reasonable planning scheme of EV charging stations, but also reduce the network loss and improve the voltage profile.

Micas in experimentally shocked gneiss

Biotites and muscovites from a gneiss have been experimentally shocked between 18 and 70 GPa using powder-propellant guns at NASA Johnson Space Center and at the California Institute of Technology. This study shows that shock in biotite and muscovite can produce homogeneous and devolatilized glasses within microseconds. Shock-deformed micas display fracturing, kinking, and complex extinction patterns over the entire pressure range investigated. However, these deformation features are not a sensitive pressure indicator. Localized melting of micas begins at 33 GPa and goes to completion at 70 GPa. Melted biotite and muscovite are optically opaque, but show extensive microvesiculation and flow when observed with the SEM. Electron diffraction confirms that biotite and muscovite have transformed to a glass. The distribution of vesicles in shock-vitrified mica shows escape of volatiles within the short duration of the shock experiment. Experimentally shocked biotite and muscovite undergo congruent melting. Compositions of the glasses are similar to the unshocked micas except for volatiles (H2O loss and K loss). These unusual glasses derived from mica may be quenched by rapid cooling conditions during the shock experiment. Based on these results, the extremely low H2O content of tektites may be reconciled with a terrestrial origin by impact. Release of volatiles in shock-melted micas affects the melting behavior of coexisting dry silicates during the short duration of the shock experiment. Transportation and escape of volatiles released from shock-melted micas may provide plausible mechanisms for the origin of protoatmospheres on terrestrial planets, hydrothermal activity on phyllosilicate-rich meteorite parent bodies, and fluid entrapment in meteorites.

Porosity of serially sectioned interplanetary dust particles

The application of epoxy embedding and microtomy to individual chondritic interplanetary dust particles (lOP's)(Bradley and Brownlee, 1986a) provides not only higher precision in thin-film elemental analyses (Bradley and Brownlee, 19861:1), but also allows a wealth of other important techniques for the micro-characterization of these primitive extraterrestrial materials. For example, individual sections (e.g. 100 nm thick) or a series of sections, can be examined using image analysis techniques which utilize either transmitted or scanned secondary electron images, or alternatively, secondary X-ray spectra collected concurrently from a given region of sample. Individual particles, or groups of particles with similar image characteristics can then be rapidly identified using conventional grey-scale/particle recognition techniques for each microtomed section of lOP. This type of image analysis provides a suitable method for determination of particle size and shape distribution as well as porosity throughout the aggregate.

Interstellar titanium-oxides in interplanetary dust

Interstellar gas abundances (Clayton et al., 1986) suggest that titanium may be bound up in dust and indeed, excess titanium in carbonaceous chondrites is attributed to mixing of interstellar and Solar System materials (Morton, 1974). Fine-grained chondritic interplanetary dust particles (lOPs) of cometary origin are relatively pristine early Solar System materials (Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1987; Rietmeijer, 1987) and show chemical and mineralogical signatures related to a pre-solar or nebular origin. For example, large OtH ratios suggest a presolar or interstellar dust component in some chondritic lOPs(Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1987). Ti/Si ratios (normalized to bulk CI) in lOPs and carbonaceous chondrite matrices exceed solar abundances but are similar to dust from comet Halley (Jessberger et al., 1987). The Ti-distribution in chondritic lOPs shows major, small-scale « 0.1 urn) variations (Flynn et al., 1978) consistent with heterogeneously distributed Ti-bearingphases. Analytical electron microscope (AEM) studies, in fact, have identified platey grains of Ti-metal, Ti407 and Ti s09 in two different lOPs (Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1987). The occurrence of Ti407 was related in situ low-temperature aqueous alteration and therefore implied the presence of BaTi03 (Rietmeijer and Mackinnon, 1984). Yet, the presence ofTis09 in an lOp which shows no evidence of aqueous alteration (Rietmeijer.and McKay, 1986) requires a different interpretation. The distribution of Ti-oxides in chondritic lOPs were investigated with ultra-microtomed thin sections of fluffy chondri tic lOP U2011*B (lSC allocation U2011C2) using a lEOL 2000FX AEM operating at an accelerating voltage of 200kV and with an attached Tracor Northern TN5500 energy dispersive spectrometer.

Grain size distributions of Magneli phases and metallic titanium in chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles

A mineralogical survey of chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPs)showed that these micrometeorites differ significantly in form and texture from components of carbonaceous chondrites and contain some mineral assemblages which do not occur in any meteorite class1. Models of chondritic IDP mineral evolution generally ignore the typical (ultra-) fine grain size of consituent minerals which range between 0.002-0.1µm in size2. The chondritic porous (CP) subset of chondritic IDPs is probably debris from short period comets although evidence for a cometary origin is still circumstantial3. If CP IDPs represent dust from regions of the Solar System in which comet accretion occurred, it can be argued that pervasive mineralogical evolution of IDP dust has been arrested due to cryogenic storage in comet nuclei. Thus, preservation in CP IDPs of "unusual meteorite minerals", such as oxides of tin, bismuth and titanium4, should not be dismissed casually. These minerals may contain specific information about processes that occurred in regions of the solar nebula, and early Solar System, which spawned the IDP parent bodies such as comets and C, P and D asteroids6. It is not fully appreciated that the apparent disparity between the mineralogy of CP IDPs and carbonaceous chondrite matrix may also be caused by the choice of electron-beam techniques with different analytical resolution. For example, Mg-Si-Fe distributions of Cl matrix obtained by "defocussed beam" microprobe analyses are displaced towards lower Fe-values when using analytical electron microscope (AEM)data which resolve individual mineral grains of various layer silicates and magnetite in the same matrix6,7. In general, "unusual meteorite minerals" in chondritic IDPs, such as metallic titanium, Tin01-n(Magneli phases) and anatase8 add to the mineral data base of fine-grained Solar System materials and provide constraints on processes that occurred in the early Solar System.