Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Type of prey influences biology and consumption rate of Orius insidiosus (Say) (Hemiptera, Anthocoridae)

Generalist predators are capable of consuming different types of prey, and as each prey may have distinct nutritional values, each may have a distinct impact on the biology of the predator. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine how the consumption of different prey influences certain biological characteristics and the predatory capacity of Orius insidiosus (Say). The investigation was performed in climatic chamber at 25 ±1 ºC, RH 70 ± 10% and fotophase 12. Eggs of Anagasta kuehniella (Zeller), adults of Caliothrips phaseoli (Hood) and nymphs of Aphis gossypii Glover were used as prey and were provided daily ad libitum for all the mobile stages of the predator. The results showed that biological parameters of O. insidiosus are affected differently depending on the type of prey ingested. The development time of the nymphal stage was 13.1, 11.23 and 10.25 days for O. insidiosus feeding on eggs of A. kuehniella, nymphs of A. gossypii and adults of C. phaseoli, respectively. Longevity was five times larger for adults fed on eggs of A. kuehniella (56.25 days) compared to that of adults that preyed on nymphs of A. gossypii (11.44 days), and four times larger when the prey were adults of C. phaseoli (13.58 days). The consumption of eggs of A. kuehniella by predator females resulted in a shorter pre-oviposition period (3.2 days) and a longer oviposition period (44.4 days) when compared to the consumption of other types of prey. In addition, fecundity was increased with the consumption of eggs of A. kuehniella (195.25 eggs laid / female) when compared to feeding on the other prey, C. phaseoli (70.00 eggs laid / female) or A. gossypii (22.50 eggs laid / female). However, the consumption of aphids was larger (148.28 nymphs/ nymphal stage) than that of thrips (74.10 thrips / nymphal stage) or eggs of A. kuehniella (37.03 eggs /nymphal stage) for all of the nymphal stages of the predator. The results indicate that the eggs of A. kuehniella are the type of prey best suited for rearing this predator insect under laboratory conditions. Also fecundity was better with this prey even though the predator consumed during its nymphal stage a lesser quantity of eggs compared to the other prey.

Comparative biology of Cycloneda sanguinea (Linnaeus, 1763) and Hippodamia convergens Guérin-Méneville, 1842 (Coleoptera, Coccinellidae) focusing on the control of Cinara spp. (Hemiptera, Aphididae)

The giant conifer aphids Cinara pinivora (Wilson, 1919) and Cinara atlantica (Wilson, 1919) (Hemiptera, Aphididae) have been observed attacking Pinus spp. in Southern and Southeastern Brazil. The coccinellids, on the other hand, were found feeding on these aphids in the field, which can be regarded as potential biological control agents. The biological cycle and mortality rate of larvae of Cycloneda sanguinea (Linnaeus, 1763) and Hippodamia convergens Guérin-Méneville, 1842 (Coleoptera, Coccinellidae) were evaluated using twenty larvae of each predator species fed with nymphs of Cinara. The vials with the insects were kept under 15 ºC, 20 ºC and 25 ºC, with 12h photophase and 70 ± 10% relative humidity. The consumption was evaluated every 24 hours and the nymphs replaced. For C. sanguinea, the egg incubation time was 10.5, 5.0 and 4.0 days; the average larval development period was 33.3, 15.8 and 8.6 days and the larval mortality rate 20%,0% and 15%, respectively at 15 ºC, 20 ºC and 25 ºC. For H. convergens, the larval development time was 41.9, 19.3 and 10.9 days at 15 ºC, 20 ºC and 25 ºC, respectively. The larval mortality rate was 35%, 15% and 0% under the three temperatures. Both species developed adequately when fed nymphs of Cinara, however, C. sanguinea performed better than H. convergens, even at 15 ºC, at which temperature the biological cycles of the coccinellids are prolonged, but the temperature is favorable for the development of Cinara populations in the field.

New ideas need new space

We develop a setting with weak intellectual property rights, where firms' boundaries, location and knowledge spillovers are endogenous. We have two main results. The first one is that, if communication costs increase with distance, entrepreneurs concerned about information leakage have a benefit from locating away from the industry center: distance is an obstacle to collusive trades between members andnon-members. The second result is that we identify a trade-off for the entrepreneur between owning a facility (controlling all its characteristics) and sharing a facility with a {\it non-member} (an agent not involved in production), therefore losing control over some of its characteristics. We focus on ``location" as the relevant characteristic of the facility, but location can be used as a spatial metaphor for other relevant characteristics of the facility. For theentrepreneur, sharing the facility with non-members implies that the latter, as co-owners, know the location (even if they do not have access to it). Knowledge of the location for the co-owners facilitates collusion with employees, what increases leakage. The model yields a benefit for new plants from spatial dispersion (locating at the periphery of the industry), particularly so for new plants of new firms.We relate this result with recent empirical findings on the dynamics of industry location.

Floral biology of Stachytarpheta maximiliani Scham. (Verbenaceae) and its floral visitors

This study describes the reproductive system of Stachytarpheta maximiliani (Verbenaceae), including its floral biology, nectar and pollen availability and insect foraging patterns, identifying whose species act as pollinators. It was carried out in a Brazilian Atlantic rain forest site. Observations on the pollination biology of the Verbenaceae S. maximiliani indicate that their flowering period extends from September through May. Anthesis occurs from 5:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. and nectar and pollen are available during all the anthesis. Many species of beetles, hemipterans, flies, wasps, bees and butterflies visit their flowers, but bees and butterflies are the most frequent visitors. The flowers are generally small, gathered in dense showy inflorescences. A complex of floral characteristcs, such as violet-blue color of flowers, long floral tubes, without scents, nectar not exposed, high concentration of sugar in nectar (about 32%), allowed identification of floral syndromes (melittophily and psicophily) and function for each visitor. The bees, Bombus morio, B. atratus, Trigonopedia ferruginea, Xylocopa brasilianorum and Apis mellifera and the butterflies Corticea mendica mendica, Corticea sp., Vehilius clavicula, Urbanus simplicius, U. teleus and Heraclides thoas brasiliensis, are the most important pollinators.

A dynamic choice model of hybrid behavior in the attribute-space

This paper presents a dynamic choice model in the attributespace considering rational consumers that discount the future. In lightof the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the model isfurther extended by considering a utility function that allows for thedifferent types of behavior described in the literature: pure inertia,pure variety seeking and hybrid. The model presents a stationaryconsumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buysone product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer buys severalproducts simultane-ously. Under the inverted-U marginal utilityassumption, the consumer behaves inertial among the existing brands forseveral periods, and eventually, once the stationary levels areapproached, the consumer turns to a variety-seeking behavior. An empiricalanalysis is run using a scanner database for fabric softener andsignificant evidence of hybrid behavior for most attributes is found,which supports the functional form considered in the theory.

Nesting biology of the trap-nesting Neotropical wasp Trypoxylo n(Trypargilum) aurifrons Shuckard (Hymenoptera, Crabronidae)

The present study was carried out in three localities of the state of São Paulo, Brazil: Araras (Dec/03-Dec/06), São Carlos (Nov/04-Nov/06) and Rifaina (Jul/04-Dec/06). Trap-nests were distributed among sites in the sampling areas and were collected every 35 days. Data from 295 nests indicate that T. aurifrons is a multivoltine species, with higher rates of nest building and cell production in the warm, rainy season. The trap-nests used by the females ranged from 117 to 467 mm in length and 3.1 to 16.6 mm in diameter. All nests showed deep plugs and a vestibular cell was found in 37% of the complete nests. The number of cells per nest ranged from one to 12. Females were larger than males, emerged from longer cells and their cocoons were significantly larger. A secondary 1:1 sex ratio was found in Araras and Rifaina. No correlation was observed between the diameter of the trap-nest and sex ratio. Males were usually oviposited in the first brood cells. Male and female developmental time from egg to adult was longer in the cold, dry season. Trypoxylon aurifrons provisioned their nests mainly with orb-spiders from the family Araneidae. The most important mortality factor was the death of immature forms, probably due to development failure. The most important parasitoid was Melittobia sp.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

Occurrence, biology and behavior of Liogenys fuscus Blanchard (Insecta, Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Due to the importance of some Pleurosticti Scarabaeidae as agricultural pests allied to information absence on the species that occur in Brazilian Central-West region, on studies occurrence, biology and behavior on this group of scarabs were conducted. Biology and behavioral studies started with Liogenys fuscus Blanchard, 1850 (Melolonthinae), a very common species and were developed in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul. Adult beetles were collected from light traps from February 2005 to January 2007, at the experimental farm of the Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul in Aquidauana (UEMS). In the laboratory adults were placed in plastic containers with soil with sprouts of Brachiaria decumbens Stapf (Poaceae). Eggs were transferred to a climatized chamber at 26 ± 1º C with a 12hourlight, 12hour darkness photoperiod cycle. Adult flight activity occurred in August and in September to December from 06:00 pm to 06:00 am, with the largest number of individuals flying from 07:00 to 10:00 pm. Eggs measured 1 x 1.5 mm and were laid individually or in groups in soil chambers; eggs were initially white and became yellow near hatching. The embryonic period lasted 14.3 days; first, second and third instars lasted 28.5, 48.8, and 68.2 days, respectively. The prepupal period lasted 120.2 days and the prepupa stayed inactive in soil. The mean duration of pupal stage was 27.5 days and the mean longevity of adults was 23.6 days. In laboratory the calling behavior between males and females was observed; copulation lasted, in mean, 25 minutes.

Impact of small variations in temperature and humidity on the reproductive activity and survival of Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae)

In short space of time increase in temperature and rainfall can affect vector populations and, consequently, the diseases for them transmitted. The present study analyzed the effect of small temperature and humidity variations on the fecundity, fertility and survival of Aedes aegypti. These parameters were analyzed using individual females at temperatures ranging from 23 to 27 °C (mean 25 °C); 28 to 32 °C (mean 30 °C) and 33 to 37 °C (mean 35 ºC) associated to 60±8% and 80±6% relative humidity. Females responded to an increase in temperature by reducing egg production, oviposition time and changing oviposition patterns. At 25 ºC and 80% relative humidity, females survived two-fold more and produced 40% more eggs when compared to those kept at 35 ºC and 80% relative humidity. However, in 45% of females kept at 35 ºC and 60% relative humidity oviposition was inhibited and only 15% females laid more than 100 eggs, suggesting that the intensity of the temperature effect was influenced by humidity. Gradual reductions in egg fertility at 60% relative humidity were observed with the increase in temperature, although such effect was not found in the 80% relative humidity at 25 º C and 30 º C. These results suggest that the reduction in population densities recorded in tropical areas during seasons when temperatures reach over 35 ºC is likely to be strongly influenced by temperature and humidity, with a negative effect on several aspects of mosquito biology.