Integrating socio-economics and ecology: a taxonomy of quantitative methods and a review of their use in agro-ecology

Answering many of the critical questions in conservation, development and environmental management requires integrating the social and natural sciences. However, understanding the array of available quantitative methods and their associated terminology presents a major barrier to successful collaboration. We provide an overview of quantitative socio-economic methods that distils their complexity into a simple taxonomy. We outline how each has been used in conjunction with ecological models to address questions relating to the management of socio-ecological systems. We review the application of social and ecological quantitative concepts to agro-ecology and classify the approaches used to integrate the two disciplines. Our review included all published integrated models from 2003 to 2008 in 27 journals that publish agricultural modelling research. Although our focus is on agro-ecology, many of the results are broadly applicable to other fields involving an interaction between human activities and ecology. We found 36 papers that integrated social and ecological concepts in a quantitative model. Four different approaches to integration were used, depending on the scale at which human welfare was quantified. Most models viewed humans as pure profit maximizers, both when calculating welfare and predicting behaviour. Synthesis and applications. We reached two main conclusions based on our taxonomy and review. The first is that quantitative methods that extend predictions of behaviour and measurements of welfare beyond a simple market value basis are underutilized by integrated models. The second is that the accuracy of prediction for integrated models remains largely unquantified. Addressing both problems requires researchers to reach a common understanding of modelling goals and data requirements during the early stages of a project.

Small towns as 'sub-poles' in English rural development: Investigating rural-urban linkages using sub-regional social accounting matrices

This paper uses spatial economic data from four small English towns to measure the strength of economic integration between town and hinterland and to estimate the magnitude of town-hinterland spill-over effects. Following estimation of local integration indicators and inter-locale flows, sub-regional social accounting matrices (SAMs) are developed to estimate the strength of local employment and output multipliers for various economic sectors. The potential value of a town as a 'sub-pole' in local economic development is shown to be dependent on structural differences in the local economy, such as the particular mix of firms within towns. Although the multipliers are generally small, indicating a low level of local linkages, some sectors, particularly financial services and banking, show consistently higher multipliers for both output and employment. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model

It is well established that crop production is inherently vulnerable to variations in the weather and climate. More recently the influence of vegetation on the state of the atmosphere has been recognized. The seasonal growth of crops can influence the atmosphere and have local impacts on the weather, which in turn affects the rate of seasonal crop growth and development. Considering the coupled nature of the crop-climate system, and the fact that a significant proportion of land is devoted to the cultivation of crops, important interactions may be missed when studying crops and the climate system in isolation, particularly in the context of land use and climate change. To represent the two-way interactions between seasonal crop growth and atmospheric variability, we integrate a crop model developed specifically to operate at large spatial scales (General Large Area Model for annual crops) into the land surface component of a global climate model (GCM; HadAM3). In the new coupled crop-climate model, the simulated environment (atmosphere and soil states) influences growth and development of the crop, while simultaneously the temporal variations in crop leaf area and height across its growing season alter the characteristics of the land surface that are important determinants of surface fluxes of heat and moisture, as well as other aspects of the land-surface hydrological cycle. The coupled model realistically simulates the seasonal growth of a summer annual crop in response to the GCM's simulated weather and climate. The model also reproduces the observed relationship between seasonal rainfall and crop yield. The integration of a large-scale single crop model into a GCM, as described here, represents a first step towards the development of fully coupled crop and climate models. Future development priorities and challenges related to coupling crop and climate models are discussed.

Evaluating the role of environmental quality in the sustainable rural economic development of England

The issue of the sustainable development of rural economies in England has recently received considerable attention. This is because many of the poorest areas in the country are rural, often of high environmental quality, but suffering from high unemployment and a lack of services and facilities. The rapid decline in agricultural incomes and in-migration of affluent urban workers since 1990 has exacerbated economic inequality in such areas. A number of factors have the potential to drive rural development and this paper applies, and considers, the feasibility of a method from the USA for combining economic and environmental variables in a regional growth model to examine the hypothesis that environmental quality is an important determinant of sustainable rural development in England. The model output suggests that, although environmental quality does play a role in sustainable rural development in England there are other, more important, factors driving development. These include business and communications infra-structure, the degree and opportunities for commuting and underlying employment prospects. The robustness and limitations of the method for combining economic and environmental variables is discussed in relation to the spatial interrelatedness of Local Authority Districts in England, and conclusions are drawn about areas for refinement and improvement of the method.

Spatial and management factors associated with exposure of smallholder dairy cattle in Tanzania to tick-borne pathogens

A cross-sectional study of serum antibody responses of cattle to tick-borne pathogens (Theileria parva, Theileria mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) was conducted on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania. Seroprevalence was highest for T. parva (48% in Iringa and 23% in Tanga) and B. bigemina (43% in Iringa and 27% in Tanga) and lowest for B. bovis (12% in Iringa and 6% in Tanga). We use spatial and non-spatial models, fitted using classical and Bayesian methods, to explore risk factors associated with seroprevalence. These include both fixed effects (age, grazing history and breeding status) and random effects (farm and local spatial effects). In both regions, seroprevalence for all tick-borne pathogens increased significantly with age. Animals pasture grazed in the 3 months prior to the start of the sampling period were significantly more likely to be seropositive for Theileria spp. and Babesia spp. Pasture grazed animals were more likely to be seropositive than zero-grazed animals for A. marginale, but the relationship was weaker than that observed for the other four pathogens. This study did not detect any significant differences in seroprevalence associated with other management-related variables, including the method or frequency of acaricide application. After adjusting for age, there was weak evidence of localised (< 5 km) spatial correlation in exposure to some of the tick borne diseases. However, this was small compared with the 'farm-effect', suggesting that risk factors specific to the farm were more important than those common to the local neighbourhood. Many animals were seropositive for more than one pathogen and the correlation between exposure to the different pathogens remained after adjusting for the identified risk factors. Identifying the determinants of exposure to multiple tick-borne pathogens and characterizing local variation in risk will assist in the development of more effective control strategies for smallholder dairy farms. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of environment on endosperm cell-wall development in Triticum aestivum during grain filling: an infrared spectroscopic imaging study

One of the major factors contributing to the failure of new wheat varieties is seasonal variability in end-use quality. Consequently, it is important to produce varieties which are robust and stable over a range of environmental conditions. Recently developed sample preparation methods have allowed the application of FT-IR spectroscopic imaging methods to the analysis of wheat endosperm cell wall composition, allowing the spatial distribution of structural components to be determined without the limitations of conventional chemical analysis. The advantages of the methods, described in this paper, are that they determine the composition of endosperm cell walls in situ and with minimal modification during preparation. Two bread-making wheat cultivars, Spark and Rialto, were selected to determine the impact of environmental conditions on the cell-wall composition of the starchy endosperm of the developing and mature grain, focusing on the period of grain filling (starting at about 14 days after anthesis). Studies carried out over two successive seasons show that the structure of the arabinoxylans in the endosperm cell walls changes from a highly branched form to a less branched form. Furthermore, during development the rate of restructuring was faster when the plants were grown at higher temperature with restricted water availability from 14 days after anthesis with differences in the rate of restructuring occurring between the two cultivars.

Quantitative comparison between the use of 3D vs 2D visualization tools to present building design proposals to non-spatial skilled end users

Information technology in construction (ITC) has been gaining wide acceptance and is being implemented in the construction research domains as a tool to assist decision makers. Most of the research into visualization technologies (VT) has been on the wide range of 3D and simulation applications suitable for construction processes. Despite its development with interoperability and standardization of products, VT usage has remained very low when it comes to communicating and addressing the needs of building end-users (BEU). This paper argues that building end users are a source of experience and expertise that can be brought into the briefing stage for the evaluation of design proposals. It also suggests that the end user is a source of new ideas promoting innovation. In this research a positivistic methodology that includes the comparison of 3D models and the traditional 2D methods is proposed. It will help to identify "how much", if anything, a non-spatial specialist can gain in terms Of "understanding" of a particular design proposal presented, using both methods.

Location, location, location: development of spatiotemporal sequence learning in infancy

We investigated infants' sensitivity to spatiotemporal structure. In Experiment 1, circles appeared in a statistically defined spatial pattern. At test 11-month-olds, but not 8-month-olds, looked longer at a novel spatial sequence. Experiment 2 presented different color/shape stimuli, but only the location sequence was violated during test; 8-month-olds preferred the novel spatial structure, but 5-month-olds did not. In Experiment 3, the locations but not color/shape pairings were constant at test; 5-month-olds showed a novelty preference. Experiment 4 examined "online learning": We recorded eye movements of 8-month-olds watching a spatiotemporal sequence. Saccade latencies to predictable locations decreased. We argue that temporal order statistics involving informative spatial relations become available to infants during the first year after birth, assisted by multiple cues.

Spatial representation and attention in toddlers with Williams syndrome and Down syndrome

The nature of the spatial representations that underlie simple visually guided actions early in life was investigated in toddlers with Williams syndrome (WS), Down syndrome (DS), and healthy chronological age- and mental age-matched controls, through the use of a "double-step" saccade paradigm. The experiment tested the hypothesis that, compared to typically developing infants and toddlers, and toddlers with DS, those with WS display a deficit in using spatial representations to guide actions. Levels of sustained attention were also measured within these groups, to establish whether differences in levels of engagement influenced performance on the double-step saccade task. The results showed that toddlers with WS were unable to combine extra-retinal information with retinal information to the same extent as the other groups, and displayed evidence of other deficits in saccade planning, suggesting a greater reliance on sub-cortical mechanisms than the other populations. Results also indicated that their exploration of the visual environment is less developed. The sustained attention task revealed shorter and fewer periods of sustained attention in toddlers with DS, but not those with WS, suggesting that WS performance on the double-step saccade task is not explained by poorer engagement. The findings are also discussed in relation to a possible attention disengagement deficit in WS toddlers. Our study highlights the importance of studying genetic disorders early in development. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The transformation of earth-system observations into information of socio-economic value in GEOSS

The Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, GEOSS, is a co-ordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We discuss the role of earth-system modelling and data assimilation in transforming earth-system observations into the predictive and status-assessment products required by GEOSS, across many areas of socio-economic interest. First we review recent gains in the predictive skill of operational global earth-system models, on time-scales of days to several seasons. We then discuss recent work to develop from the global predictions a diverse set of end-user applications which can meet GEOSS requirements for information of socio-economic benefit; examples include forecasts of coastal storm surges, floods in large river basins, seasonal crop yield forecasts and seasonal lead-time alerts for malaria epidemics. We note ongoing efforts to extend operational earth-system modelling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition, in support of improved services for air-quality forecasts and for treaty assessment. We next sketch likely GEOSS observational requirements in the coming decades. In concluding, we reflect on the cost of earth observations relative to the modest cost of transforming the observations into information of socio-economic value.

Actors and objects: A socio-technical networks approach for construction management research

We explore the contribution of socio-technical networks approaches to construction management research. These approaches are distinctive for their analysis of actors and objects as mutually constituted within socio-technical networks. They raise questions about the ways in which the content, meaning and use of technology is negotiated in practice, how particular technical configurations are elaborated in response to specific problems and why certain paths or solutions are adopted rather than others. We illustrate this general approach with three case studies: a historical study of the development of reinforced concrete in France, the UK and the US, the recent introduction of 3D-CAD software into four firms and an analysis of the uptake of environmental assessment technologies in the UK since 1990. In each we draw out the ways in which various technologies shaped and were shaped by different socio-technical networks. We conclude with a reflection on the contributions of socio-technical network analysis for more general issues including the study of innovation and analyses of context and power.

Spatial and temporal effects of free-air CO2 enrichment (POPFACE) on leaf growth, cell expansion and cell production in a closed canopy of poplar

Leaf expansion in the fast-growing tree,Populus × euramericana was stimulated by elevated [CO2] in a closed-canopy forest plantation, exposed using a free air CO2 enrichment technique enabling long-term experimentation in field conditions. The effects of elevated [CO2] over time were characterized and related to the leaf plastochron index (LPI), and showed that leaf expansion was stimulated at very early (LPI, 0–3) and late (LPI, 6–8) stages in development. Early and late effects of elevated [CO2] were largely the result of increased cell expansion and increased cell production, respectively. Spatial effects of elevated [CO2] were also marked and increased final leaf size resulted from an effect on leaf area, but not leaf length, demonstrating changed leaf shape in response to [CO2]. Leaves exhibited a basipetal gradient of leaf development, investigated by defining seven interveinal areas, with growth ceasing first at the leaf tip. Interestingly, and in contrast to other reports, no spatial differences in epidermal cell size were apparent across the lamina, whereas a clear basipetal gradient in cell production rate was found. These data suggest that the rate and timing of cell production was more important in determining leaf shape, given the constant cell size across the leaf lamina. The effect of elevated [CO2] imposed on this developmental gradient suggested that leaf cell production continued longer in elevated [CO2] and that basal increases in cell production rate were also more important than altered cell expansion for increased final leaf size and altered leaf shape in elevated [CO2].